Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview

The PGA Tour is one week off from its next Major with the PGA Championship on the horizon. But our focus this week leads us out to Dallas, Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson at Trinity Forest Golf Club. To my surprise, many golfers are opting out of this event and Brooks Koepka headlines as the only top 10 ranked golfer in the world who will be in attendance. The field is certainly on the weaker side, but not completely devoid of talent. In total, 18 of the world’s top 60 golfers will also be teeing it up. So while there are plenty of players who have decided that they don’t need a ‘tune-up’ ahead of next week’s Major, we as DFS players can certainly keep our head in the game by getting in on the action! This will be a full field event of 156 players where the top 70 (and ties) will play the weekend. Also, I’ll tell ya now -- don’t put any money on Tony Romo that you’re not willing to lose!

Trinity Forest GC is a Par 71 set-up that reaches 7,380 yards. It ranked as the seventh easiest course on TOUR last year, playing at -1.582 strokes under par -- but that was in pristine, calm conditions which may not be the case this week (more on that later). Trinity Forest GC is a newer course, built in 2014, and last year was the first season in which it played host to the Byron Nelson. This will result in course history factoring very little into my decision making this week. This course is wide open with hardly any trees to speak of with expansive, undulating fairways, hardly any rough, and features 85 bunkers but zero water hazards. The Bermuda greens are enormous and some of the largest on TOUR. Like the fairways, they too are heavily undulated but they also ran pretty slow last year, which would benefit the golfers if that stays true this season. Similar to last week, a big driver is a nice advantage here. The average driving distance was just over 290 yards at Trinity Forest GC last year -- roughly seven yards higher than TOUR average.

With very benign rough and an open course layout, I’ll be looking for excellent ball strikers with an emphasis on distance off of the tee. In good conditions, the winning score could easily hit 20-under par as defending champ Aaron Wise did last year, shooting 23-under. This will lead me to target guys with high birdie-or-better percentages and, as a Par 71 course, efficient Par 4 scoring will help guys climb up the leaderboard quickly as well. As I mentioned, conditions last year were pretty ideal. That likely won’t be the case for a large portion of this week. So let’s jump into a look at the weather, the stats I am weighing heavily, and my favorite golfers to target from each price range!

Weather ⛅

A 100% chance of rain moving through the Dallas area on Wednesday will absolutely soak this course ahead of the opening round. A bit of rainfall the previous day can help golfers, particularly by providing more receptive greens. Too much rain can just make the course a struggle to operate on, especially with certain ball lies. Throughout Thursday and Friday, the sustained winds will mostly whip in between 10-15 mph while gusts could hit above 25 mph. Ultimately, conditions are just too similar throughout the day on both Thursday and Friday to pinpoint either wave having an advantage. This could certainly change once we near Thursday morning and I would advise keeping a particularly close eye on weather this week more so than others. Since this course can produce very low scores in calmer conditions, any window of opportunity with decreased winds would be a nice advantage. The most up to date forecast can be found linked to the image below.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: BS) | 40%

2. Driving Distance | 20%

3. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 20%

4. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 20%

High-Priced Targets

Hideki Matsuyama (DK: $11k, FD: $11.5k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Koepka is the massive favorite this week and I’ll just go ahead and tell you that it’s probably wise to have some kind of exposure to him if you’re rolling multiple lineups. Hideki is priced up virtually by default but his chances to perform well at Trinity Forest are right on par with Koepka's if you ask me. He has the added benefit of competing here last year where he finished 16th. He is a perfect 12/12 on made cuts this season and this will be by far the easiest field he’s competed in in months. He ranks 1st in SG: BS, 10th in Driving Distance, 20th in BoB%, and 15th in P4 AVG. The major weakness in his game has routinely been with the flat stick (110th in SG: Putting). With likely receptive greens this week, some of his woes should be diminished there. At these DFS prices, to return value you likely want to bank on a top five finish, which he is a +300 favorite to accomplish. But otherwise, spending up on him in cash may leave you taking too many risks elsewhere, so I’d likely reserve him for GPPs. His odds to win are the second best in the field at 16:1 and Hideki ranks first overall in my tournament model -- just ahead of Brooks.

Aaron Wise (DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.9k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Typically, I don’t go heavily for the “back-to-back” champion narrative for any specific event but for this week… why not? While Wise does have four missed cuts on the year, he enters this week with a 17th place finish at The Masters and an 18th place finish in last week’s Wells Fargo Championship. It’s easy to see how Wise won at this place last year because he fits the bill on the stat sheet. He’s 25th in SG: BS, 14th in Driving Distance, 1st in BoB%, and 35th in P4 AVG. Due to the nature of his game, he’s going to make some frustrating bogeys that you’ll have to live with. But when it comes to DFS scoring, it’s simply better to have a guy shoot a round of 68 with six birdies and three bogeys than a guy who scores four birdies and one bogey. Both rounds may result in the same score on the actual scorecards but that doesn't translate equally in fantasy outputs. I think Wise is priced pretty fairly across both sites and I don’t mind starting cash builds with him. His 22:1 odds are the fourth best in the field and he checks in at 5th overall in the tournament model.

Mid-Priced Targets

Rafa Cabrera Bello (DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.5k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

I believe the last time I was high on RCB was during The PLAYERS where he wound up shooting +9 in his first 36 holes and missing the weekend for his only MC on the PGA Tour this season. Tough luck. Anyone can have a bad couple rounds of golf -- even a consistent player like RCB. But after seeing three consecutive solid finishes since then, I’m ready to hop back on the bandwagon. Rarely does Rafa lose strokes off the tee or on approach, which easily makes him one of the premiere ball strikers in this field. Overall, he ranks 6th in SG: BS, 75th in Driving Distance, 13th in BoB%, and 3rd in P4 AVG. The lack of distance off the tee is the clear outlier there but he still manages to gain strokes OTT more often than not and his average driving distance is still right around that 290 yard mark which is acceptable for me this week. He didn’t compete here last year but this is a course where I’d imagine he can have success. He’s shown in the past that he is an efficient player in wet and windy conditions like we may have in store this week and I have no issues rolling him out in any format. He has 40:1 odds to win and rates out 9th in my player model.

Trey Mullinax (DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.2k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Talk about a guy who can ‘grip it and rip it,’ Mullinax should shape up nicely for this sort of course and routinely land 310+ yard drives and, thus, easier approach shots. After missing the weekend on his first three events of the season, Mullinax has missed the cut just once in his last 13 stroke play events. The draw with him is his great combination of ball striking ability and bomber play style. He is 7th in SG: BS, 7th in Driving Distance, 43rd in BoB%, and 56th in P4 AVG. A large reason why he isn’t ranked higher in the actual scoring categories is due to his putting struggles (114th in SG: Putting). I believe we will see some typically poorer putters end up near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday and I’ll definitely buy some stock in Mullinax being one of those guys. He has 80:1 odds to win and checks in ranked 18th in my tournament model.

Low-Priced Targets

Nick Taylor (DK: $7k, FD: $8.5k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★☆☆☆

No one gets fired up rostering Nick Taylor because he really just doesn’t bring much upside to the table, but his high cut equity and perpetually low DFS salaries make him a preferred salary saving option for cash games. He has just one missed cut across his last 11 starts and, in total, he’s made 13/16 cuts on the year. While Taylor isn’t a very long hitter (290.4 yards/drive this season), he’s shown that he can still operate this course with reasonable success after finishing 32nd at Trinity Forest GC last year. Overall, he is 46th in SG: BS, 79th in Driving Distance, 61st in BoB%, and 24th in P4 AVG. Very 'ho-hum' metrics across the board but in a field of 150+ players, not having a major weakness in any one area is a valuable strength to have (as blatantly obvious of a statement as that is to make). You just sort of plug him in a cash lineup, expect him to make the weekend, and anything better than a 50th place finish is a solid win in my book. No one should be putting money on his 125:1 odds to win but he does rate out well at 27th in my tournament model for this week.

Nate Lashley (DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.8k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Last week’s GPP deep dive led us to eventual WFC winner Max Homa and I’d be lying if I said I didn’t want to puff my chest out a little bit and run a virtual victory lap after highlighting a 300/1 long shot. But the reality is, I was just hoping he’d make the cut and offer some salary relief for more stud players. The stats were there and the form was good but no way in hell did I assume he’d be in the running on Sunday, much less win it -- otherwise I’d be packing my bags for the Caribbean off of some outright bet winnings. But I digress... this week Nate Lashley is the bargain bin standout who is running on (relatively) good form overall this season (7/9 made cuts -- four top 20’s) and hits on three out of the four key stats. He checks in 21st in SG: BS, 104th in Driving Distance, 39th in BoB%, and 9th in P4 AVG. Similar to Nick Taylor, the driving distance is a concern but he also managed a 32nd place finish at Trinity Forest GC last year, so he’s shown he can make up ground elsewhere. It helps that he ranks 2nd in Proximity from 200+ yards. He hasn’t exactly ran a litany of tough tests in the way of strong competition this season but, then again, the field is a far cry from elite this week. Let’s see what this 250:1 long shot can do. He rates out at 26th in my tournament model.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced

- Patrick Reed (DK: $9.8k | FD: $11.1k) | GPP Preferred | Reed was well within the picture to ‘ship last week’s WFC until running cold on the weekend. There’s no overwhelming data that points to him being an elite play but he hasn’t had a top 10 on the PGA Tour since his first event of the season and historically Reed doesn’t run this cold for long.

- Keith Mitchell (DK: $9.1k | FD: $10.2k) | Cash & GPP | Finished 3rd here last year and is coming off of a T8. Elite ball striker (ranks 2nd in field) and fits the bomber profile with an average driving distance of 319.6 yards over the last month.

Mid-Priced

- Lucas Bjerregaard (DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.9k) | GPP Preferred | Quickly becoming one of my favorite European players, Bjerregaard can hit it a mile and can easily play himself into the picture come Sunday… or miss the cut by several strokes. He’s just sort of an all or nothing type risk/reward golfer.

- Alex Noren (DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.7k) | GPP Only | Noren really hasn’t done much to deserve these sort of DFS salaries but he flashed some form in his last start at the RBC Heritage with two separate rounds of 67 -- ultimately finishing T28. This is a guy who routinely smashed top 10’s in 2017 and well into 2018 but his form just dropped off the table at the start of this year. If his RBC Heritage appearance was a sign that he’s rounding back into a groove, he’s worth some GPP exposure.

Low-Priced

- Adam Schenk (DK: $7k, FD: $8.5k) | Cash & GPP | Schenk is underpriced given the track record he has put together this season. He also ranks 29th or better in all four of my key stats and a top 25 this week wouldn’t shock me in the least. Rated 6th in my model.

- Brandon Harkins (DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.2k) | GPP Preferred | Long hitter who can rack up birdies quickly when he’s on his game. Rates 16th in Driving Distance and 22nd in BoB%. Made the cut in four of his last five starts and fits the course model pretty well.

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar freeroll!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd-3rd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

Best of luck to you guys this week!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!