By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour heads back to California for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. However, with COVID restrictions in place, there will be no amateurs in the field. That means no grueling 6-8 hour rounds and no corny celebrity interviews, so that’s fine by me! There is one more significant change this year -- typically three courses would be in play for this tournament: Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Club, and Monterrey Peninsula Country Club. The latter will be dropped from the rotation this season which leaves three rounds to be played on the iconic Pebble Beach GL course and one round on Spyglass Hill GC. In my opinion this should make this tournament more enjoyable from a DFS perspective. Only Pebble Beach GL has Shot Link lasers and it’s where the majority of cameras are set up as well, so the entire viewing experience should be better for this tournament.

The field strength is the lowest of the 2021 calendar year thus far, especially following the withdrawal of Dustin Johnson and Matt Kuchar. Out of the 156 players in the field, just three top 25, five top 50, and 23 of the top 100 ranked golfers in the world are on site. This will be another event where you’ll need to get familiar with some less-familiar names! Over the first two rounds, each golfer will play Pebble Beach GL one day and Spyglass Hill GC the other. After those 36 holes, the top 65 golfers (including ties) will move past the cut line and play both of the final rounds on Pebble Beach GL.

The Course Preview ⛳

Pebble Beach GL is a short Par 72 which stretches only about 6,816 yards. The course’s coastal setup provides some of the best views of any track on tour but it also brings in the potential for impactful wind conditions. Fairways are wider than average and the preferred landing zones will be protected by bunkers. It is unclear how easy or difficult the rough will be to play out of. Normally it’s kept pretty short since amateurs are in the field, but with only pros on the track this week, the thick stuff might be a course defense to contend with this year. Even in years past, golfers tend to hit the fairways around 70% of the time and I would expect more of the same this week. Many golfers will elect to leave their driver in the bag in an attempt to simply keep their ball in the fairway and set themselves up for a favorable approach shot. This is definitely a “second shot course” as golfers will be looking to target the PGA Tour’s smallest green complexes. These greens don’t feature too much slope or undulation but the fact that they only average at about 3,500 square feet forces pinpoint iron play to be crucial. The poa annua grass shouldn’t run overly fast (around 10-11 on the stimpmeter). But we’ll see some tricky bumpy putts, especially later in the day, since poa grass grows quickly in comparison to other grass types used on putting surfaces. Look for around the green play to be crucial here as well since every golfer is inevitably going to miss landing their approach shots on the greens.

Spyglass Hill GC is another Par 72 which checks in just over 7,000 yards in length. The first five holes on the front nine sit along the coastline but after that, every hole moves more inland. More trees are in play here than on PBGL and the fairways are about average in length. The greens are also a bit larger than PBGL, but still smaller by PGA Tour standards, and they should carry a bit more slope and undulation. The putting surface will also consist of poa annua grass. For those playing single round showdown contests over the first couple of days, Spyglass Hill GC *may* play slightly easier than Pebble Beach GL (especially in windy conditions) but I wouldn’t base my entire strategy around it. Both courses could certainly end up being about equal in terms of difficulty.

Weather ⛅

It seems that wind will be unavoidable this week. Thursday should be pretty clear but Friday presents some real issues with 15+ mph sustained winds and 20+ mph gusts throughout the day. Things also get dicey throughout the weekend but it’s only worth worry about that if you’re playing single round contests on those days.

Verdict: Considering everyone should experience similar conditions throughout the day on Thursday and Friday, I can’t give any advantage to either wave. I could see golfers who play Pebble Beach GL on Friday having more issues with the wind since PBGL hugs the coastline while only five holes sit along the coast at Spyglass Hill GC. That could be a factor worth considering there.

As usual, the most up-to-date forecast will be linked to the image below.

Pebble Beach Tee Times (Course Specific)

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage | 15%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 15%

5. Greens in Regulation | 15%

6. Proximity 100-125 Yards | 5%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field for any given week.

CMR = Custom Model Rank; a player’s ranking in my model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, and recent fantasy scoring outputs.

Will Zalatoris | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 25/1 | CMR: #5 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 1st SG: App |52nd P4 AVG | 8th P5 BoB% | 17th SG: ATG | 18th GIR | 112th Prox. 100-125 yds

Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Annua) Rank: 60th

If you wanted to fade the three big ‘studs’ of this field, I don’t think it’d be a crazy approach. So many wildcards come out of nowhere to win this event that it makes plenty of sense not to pay up for the absolute top tier guys. If Dustin Johnson didn’t withdraw from this tournament, maybe I’d sing a different tune in that regard, but for now, Zalatoris is a guy who sticks out to me in the high-end salary range. Despite fading a bit this past Sunday, he still cashed in a solid T17 performance and has landed top 10 finishes in half of his previous eight PGA starts. His sample sizes are smaller than many on Tour, but as of now he is sporting the sharpest irons in the field and he is a tee to green machine. Totally on board with Zalatoris yet again this week.

Francesco Molinari | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.9k

Odds: 28/1 | CMR: #35 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 13th SG: App | 70th P4 AVG | 48th P5 BoB% | 8th SG: ATG | 40th GIR | 68th Prox. 100-125 yds

Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Annua) Rank: 126th

Is Molinari “back”? After a pair of back-to-back top 10 finishes within the last three weeks, it would seem like the answer to that question is trending towards a “yes”. When Molinari’s game is in form, it is tailor-made for a course like Pebble Beach which requires sharp irons and a deadly game around the greens -- both tools that the Italian has in his bag. While Molinari doesn’t have any experience in this specific tournament, he did land a strong T16 in 2019 when the US Open was played here at Pebble Beach GL and, in this weak field, he is rightfully one of the favorites to come away with the win. I’m not entirely sold on him just yet though so I’d personally reserve him as a GPP play.

Mid-Priced Targets

Kevin Streelman | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #4 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 21st SG: App | 42nd P4 AVG | 15th P5 BoB% | 71st SG: ATG | 5th GIR | 20th Prox. 100-125 yds

Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Annua) Rank: 27th

In my mind, the mid-range is the money range this week. There are just so few studs worth spending up on in the field and the $6k (DK)/$7k (FD) ranges are just littered with landmines --- more so than most other weeks anyway. Streelman is still quite pricey in his own right, as the 11th and 12th most expensive option on DraftKings and Fanduel, respectively. But he showed off some solid ball striking last week at the WMPO and he has some elite recent course history at Pebble Beach. In the last five years at this tournament, Streelman has finishes 2nd, 7th, 6th, 14th, and 17th. He could be a popular option this week but it’s quite warranted. Streelman is a solid anchor to very balanced lineups.

Matt Jones | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #13 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 84th SG: App | 42nd P4 AVG | 4th P5 BoB% | 72nd SG: ATG | 36th GIR | 132nd Prox. 100-125 yds

Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Annua) Rank: 79th

Jones’ long term metrics are pretty hit or miss but he is simply playing some solid golf and heads into this week having made his previous eight cuts in a row. Jones shot all four rounds under 70 en route to a respectable T30 finish last week. He also carries some very solid course history having made 10/13 cuts at PBGL highlighted by a 5th place finish (2020) and a 7th place finish (2015) along with a few other top 25s. Jones had already played four events this calendar year and has looked pretty sharp along the way, so he’ll land on my radar as a mid-range play in all formats.

Low-Priced Targets

Jim Furyk | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.6k

Odds: 125/1 | CMR: #17 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 12th SG: App | 2nd P4 AVG | 24th P5 BoB% | 59th SG: ATG | 1st GIR | 5th Prox. 100-125 yds

Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Annua) Rank: 36th

Furyk isn’t the sexiest golfer to roll out in PGA DFS but, if history has anything to say about it, he’s a highly safe option to consider. Furyk has made 17/20 cuts at Pebble Beach throughout his lengthy career and landed a T28 here in 2019 during the US Open, so he’s obviously not over the hill when it comes to competing against younger golfers. These days he typically sticks to the PGA TOUR Champions circuit with the rest of the old guys, but in their current season, he has two wins and has finished no worse than T13. The birdie upside may be limited but I just don’t see him dropping many shots (ranks 1st in the field in bogey avoidance) so the birdies he does get should be pretty safe on the scorecard. Furyk also ranks 2nd in the field in average score before the cut so if he gets into the weekend, we’ll see what sort of moves he can make.

Seung-Yul Noh | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.3k

Odds: 250/1 | CMR: #116 | GPP Only

Key Stat Ranks: N/A (not enough rounds played)

To hammer home the obvious, you should definitely only consider Noh as a pure contrarian punt play in GPPs. Noh returned to golf in the 2019-20 season following a mandatory two year stint in the South Korean military. He only played eight events last season and has missed both of his cuts this season, but he was just one stroke shy of making the weekend in his most recent start at the Farmers Insurance Open. The major appeal with Noh, aside from his rock bottom DFS salaries, is the fact that he has made 5-of-5 career cuts at Pebble Beach and even notched a top 10 finish in his most recent start here which came back in 2017 (finished 8th). In my opinion, there are far riskier punt plays out there than Noh and you can get this guy at like 2-3% ownership.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Daniel Berger | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.6k

Odds: 18/1 | CMR: #2 | Cash & GPP

Burned a ton of people last week by missing the cut (on the number) but he’s finished top 10 his last two trips to Pebble Beach and could easily bounce back considering he’s one of the few truly elite golfers in this field.

Jordan Spieth | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 25/1 | CMR: #21 | GPP Preferred

Much like we’re wondering with Molinari… is Spieth back too? It’s tough to say definitively following just one strong week at the WMPO, but Spieth has historically played very well at Pebble Beach (8/8 made cuts, four top 10s, one win) so it wouldn’t be a major surprise to see him keep his momentum rolling.

Sam Burns | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.5k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #30 | GPP Preferred

Burns is one of the longest hitters in this field and if he manages to find the fairway more often than not, he’ll find himself with a sizable advantage this week. No course history does provide a knock against him but I’ve got no issues rolling with Burns in tourneys.

Henrik Norlander | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #6 | Cash & GPP

“Once is a fluke, twice is a coincidence, three times is a trend.” Going by that logic, Norlander is trending nicely following three consecutive top 25 finishes. The irons are sharp, he’s hitting plenty of greens in regulation, and he landed a 25th place finish here last season. Let’s see if he can keep building on his momentum this week.

Brendan Steele | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #24 | GPP Preferred

Like Norlander, Steele has turned in three solid results in a row: T30, T21, and T4 -- all coming in the 2021 calendar year. I believe his game will fit well here. Unfortunately, he hasn’t played this tournament since 2014 and is 0-for-3 on made cuts at Pebble Beach. I’m leaning towards him as a GPP only option because of that non-existent history but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Steele perform really well this week.

Brian Harman | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #7 | Cash & GPP

Harman is another golfer who hasn’t played here since 2014, but he did make 2-of-3 cuts highlighted by a 20th place finish in 2012. Primarily, Harman just has some really nice long term form going (by this field’s standards). He ranks 4th in the field in average fantasy points scored over his last ten starts and he has just one missed cut in that span. You should get a good bit of safety with Harman this week.

Peter Malnati | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #22 | Cash & GPP

Malnati does have a pair of missed cuts within his last four starts but as long as he makes the weekend, his upside is tremendous. In his last six events in which he’s made the cut, he’s landed four top 15 finishes and he most recently notched a T10 at the Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago. The birdie upside is great for a guy in this price range.

Michael Thompson | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.7k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #42 | GPP Preferred

Missed the cut last week but strung four top 25s together prior to the WMPO. Thompson makes for a strong bounce-back candidate and finished 10th at Pebble Beach GL in 2019.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Kevin Streelman

There aren’t many of ‘em out there this week, but I wouldn’t really be looking to use a stud tier golfer for Pebble Beach. Streelman has shown plenty of upside over the last five years so he makes plenty of sense as a OAD pick. Sorry to those who got burned by Berger like me last week. Here’s to a win out of Streelman this go ‘round. He’s certainly come close plenty of time.

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options that you still have available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the 2020-21 season.

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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