Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!

The 2019 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am ⛳️

The Player Field & Tournament Course Preview

The PGA Tour travels back to California this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. This can be a bit of a frustrating event for some fans (and players). Being a Pro-Am, each pro will have an amateur paired with them and will play in groups of four. This results in the rounds being very slow -- upwards of eight hours. This event is played on three separate courses and Shot Link/Shot Tracker data is only available on one of them (Pebble Beach Golf Links) which is where the majority of TV coverage will stick to as well. Also you will get your dose of several celebrity interviews throughout the broadcast which many people could not care less about.

Anyhow, looking at the field, we will have a pretty solid group this week as five of the top 15 and 20 of the top 60 golfers in the world are on site. Just like the Desert Classic from a couple of weeks ago, the Pebble Beach Pro-Am will have a three course rotation with the cut coming on Saturday after 54 holes where the top 60 (and ties) will go on to the play the final round on Sunday. Feel free to get a little risky/volatile with some of your lineups as every golfer is guaranteed three rounds of play. The three courses featured this week break down as follows:

Pebble Beach Golf Links (PB)

Par: 72

Yardage: 6,816

Greens: Poa

Spyglass Hill Golf Club (SH)

Par: 72

Yardage: 6,953

Greens: Poa

Monterey Peninsula Country Club (MP)

Par: 71

Yardage: 6,958

Greens: Poa

You’ll notice each course is pretty short in length with all three measuring under 7,000 yards. The PB course is expected to play more difficult than SH and MP. Pebble Beach GL is also hosting the US Open later this season in June which, being a Major, plays as one of the most difficult events each year. While the course will look very different by the time June rolls around, transformations are already underway so the fairways will be narrower and the rough will be thicker than it has for most years for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The shorter course lengths don’t really give an advantage to bombers and will generally result in players with great short iron accuracy (100-150 yards) to excel. The greens here are also the smallest on TOUR, so it’s very likely that players will need to scramble well in order to avoid slipping down the leaderboard. The multi-course rotation will keep my player model fairly straightforward this week in order to find guys who should be solid all-around on every course. Let’s get a look at the weather (which could cause problems), my key stats I’ll be focusing on and some golfers to consider for your lineups!

Weather ⛅

With this being a week with a 54-hole cut, the weather isn’t quite as crucial as it is for 36-hole cut events but still something to pay attention to.

By California standards, it’s looking to be pretty chilly with temps in the 40s/50s each day. The real threat, however, is the potential for high winds. Saturday afternoon looks like it may cause the most trouble, especially in the afternoon as sustained winds could be in the 15-25 mph range with some pesky gusts as well. There may be some merit to avoiding guys teeing off later on Saturday, especially when playing on the PB course. This is also an ocean-side set of courses, so winds are simply going to be unpredictable at times. A bit of rain may fall throughout the tournament as well, which would at least make the greens a bit more receptive. Tee times are not available at the time of me writing this so be sure to check up on the forecast closer to golfers teeing off.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 25%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%) | 25%

3. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 20%

4. Scrambling | 15%

5. Short Iron Accuracy - Proximity 100-150 yards | 10%

*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentages I put on each category.

High-Priced Targets

Dustin Johnson (DK: $11.4k | FD: $12.4k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

You can rarely go wrong with rostering DJ, especially when it comes to Pebble Beach. He’s a two time winner here and overall has made 10/11 cuts including finishes of 4th or better in four of the last five years. It’s been about a month since his last PGA Tour event -- the Tournament of Champions -- where he carded a 4th place finish. Most recently he’s been overseas playing a couple EURO Tour events and came away with a win at last week’s Saudi International. He checks off most of the boxes in my key stats as he is 40th in SG: App, 11th in BoB%, 25th in P4 AVG, 81st in Scrambling and 2nd in Short Iron Accuracy. Scrambling is a clear weakness but considering how strong he is in the 100-150 yard range, I expect him to need to scramble less than the majority of players. DJ being the highest priced golfer on both sites will likely make him a tough fit for cash game lineups but is a clear favorite for GPPs. He boasts the best odds to win at 6:1, has elite course history, and comes in with top form, so I’d feel anything below a top five finish would be a bit of a surprise.

Jordan Spieth (DK: $9.4k | FD: $10.8k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

We’re still waiting on Spieth to put it all together -- maybe this is the week? He has played this event for the last six years and has finished no worse than 22nd while reeling in a win in 2017. Pebble Beach definitely fits his game well, as he’s been consistently gaining strokes on the field with his short irons. He ranks 36th in SG: App, 19th in BoB%, 59th in P4 AVG, 34th in Scrambling and 8th in Short Iron Accuracy. He is priced down in DFS relative to his 22:1 odds to win so the upside is there. No way I would touch Spieth in cash games until he shows some form on a more consistent basis but his most recent 35th place finish at Torrey Pines was a pretty encouraging sign considering that course isn’t molded for his game. I’d keep him in consideration for GPPs only but he should be a nice leverage play off of the other high-priced golfers.

Mid-Priced Targets

Chez Reavie (DK: $9k | FD: $10.5k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Reavie is looking pretty dialed in as of late after starting off this season making 8/8 cuts and reeled in two top five finishes in the month of January -- most recently a 4th place finish at TPC Scottsdale last week. His overall course history at Pebble Beach isn’t the greatest for someone who costs $9k/$10.5k, as he has only made 4/9 cuts but he finished in a four way tie for second last year alongside Dustin Johnson, Jason Day and Phil Mickelson (pretty good company). When it comes to the stats I’m targeting this week, there is no weakness in Reavie’s bag right now. He’s 3rd in SG: App, 22nd in BoB%, 9th in P4 AVG, 33rd in Scrambling and 29th in Short Iron Accuracy. He’s just looking like a very well-rounded golfer at the moment and he checks in at 4th in my personal player model. All signs point to Reavie being a strong play for all formats.

Rafa Cabrera-Bello (DK: $8.3k | FD: $10.6k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

RCB brings his big time birdie-making ability over to American soil for the first time in 2019. He missed the cut in his most recent event played a couple weeks ago on the EURO Tour but before that he was riding a streak where he had a top 15 finish in four straight starts. He also has six top 20 finishes in his last nine PGA starts. Last year he played Pebble Beach for the first time since 2014 and came away with a strong 26th place result. RCB is looking very strong in 4/5 of my key stats this week. He ranks 10th in SG: App, 5th in BoB%, 4th in P4 AVG, 16th in Short Iron Accuracy and 114th in Scrambling (the clear outlier). He’ll tend to put up some frustrating bogeys on a pretty regular basis but his generally aggressive play style (usually) leads to more birdies than bogeys on his scorecard at the end of the day. He also posted on Twitter yesterday a video of him knocking in a putt in the rain at Pebble Beach and claimed this to be his favorite course, so ride that narrative how you’d like. I believe he is in play across the board.

Low-Priced Targets

Joel Dahmen (DK: $7.2k | FD: $8.9k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Dahmen’s run of eight straight made cuts to start the season came to an end last week at TPC Scottsdale but I believe a bounce back should be in order. He has made the cut in both of his starts at Pebble Beach over the last two years with finishes of 55th and 48th. Not results that “wow” you but a similar finish would be just fine in terms of value and he has four top 30 finishes this season so he has some solid upside as well. He is very accurate off the tee as well (69.7% driving accuracy) which should give him an advantage this week since the fairways are narrower than usual as the course is “toughening up” ahead of hosting the US Open. He checks in at 64th in SG: App, 51st in BoB%, 53rd in P4 AVG, 11th in Scrambling and 78th in Short Iron Accuracy. I prefer him for cash games as someone who is pretty cheap and should be able to bring some solid cut equity to your lineups. But with this being a 54-hole cut event, I could understand if you’d rather go for a more volatile birdie maker in tournaments.

Ernie Els (DK: $6.6k | FD: $7.6k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

I’m taking a real deep dive in the salary rankings with golfing legend Ernie Els. He has been playing some surprisingly good golf as of late. This will be his first PGA start of 2019 but before missing the cut at last week’s Saudi International he had a streak of eight consecutive cuts made across the PGA and EURO Tours which included a couple of top 15 finishes. The course history isn’t really there for him at Pebble Beach but he seems to be 100% healthy and, save for the MC last week, he is in strong form for someone in this price range. He’s a bit hit or miss in my key stats but these also don’t include his EURO Tour stats which is where he has had his strongest finishes recently. He ranks 102nd in SG: App, 79th in BoB%, 5th in P4 AVG, 26th in Scrambling and 115th in Short Iron Accuracy. Like I said, hit or miss. Some metrics where Els stands out that aren’t in my key stats but are still important for this week: 1st in Bogey Avoidance, 2nd in SG: Around the Green, 2nd in GIR and 1st in Sand Save Percentage. He’s a safe pick by no means but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him land in the top 25 by the end of Sunday’s round.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced

- Tommy Fleetwood (DK: $10.3k | FD: $11.5k) | GPP Only | No course history here and making his 2019 PGA Tour debut this week likely to get a feel for the course ahead of the US Open in June. I always have to give my guy Fleetwood some consideration any time he tees it up. His last three PGA events he has finished 7th, 11th and 8th.

- Phil Mickelson (DK: $9.6k | FD: $11.3k) | GPP Only | The list of golfers with more success than Phil at PB would be a very short one. He burned a lot of people last week (including myself) missing the cut by two strokes. Maybe not a bad idea to go back to the well and catch lower ownership due to recency bias.

Mid-Priced

- Shane Lowry (DK: $8.8k | FD: $10k) | Cash & GPP | Lowry is 4/4 cuts made and has been looking good over on the EURO Tour with a win and a 12th place finish over the last couple of weeks. If the conditions at PB get wet and windy, the Irishman should fare better than most.

- Trey Mullinax (DK: $7.4k | FD: $8k) | Cash & GPP | He has made five cuts in a row finishing higher and higher than the week/event before. Finished 47th in 2018 and 14th in 2017 in his only two PB appearances as well. Only concern is if the narrowed fairways will pester him, as he is more of a bomber and struggles finding fairways consistently. Still worth a look considering price + form. Very cheap on FanDuel.

Low-Priced

- Jimmy Walker (DK: $7.1k | FD: $8.9k) | GPP Only | Walker is pretty much a course history target. He won here in 2014 and has five top 10s in eleven appearances which includes an 8th place in 2018. A bit too risky for cash but he can definitely show up and play well here.

- Davis Love III (DK: $6.7k | FD: $7.9k) | Cash & GPP | If you need a really cheap punt play that would seem cash viable, old man DL3 seems viable. 9/11 cuts made at PB and he ranks 1st in SG: App, 20th in BoB% and 10th in Short Iron Accuracy. He should be great for builds where you want to fit in multiple studs.

Weekly Bets

Personally not betting this event due to a combination of the multi-course rotation and weather concerns so nothing to post here this week!

We’ll be hosting a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar freeroll!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd-3rd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt or mug

• BONUS - If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week!

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