Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour travels back to California this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. This can be a bit of a frustrating event for some fans (and players). Being a Pro-Am, each pro will have an amateur paired with them and will play in groups of four. This results in the rounds being very slow, lasting upwards of eight hours. This event is played on three separate courses and Shot Link/Shot Tracker data is only available on one of them (Pebble Beach Golf Links) which is where the majority of TV coverage will stick to as well. Also you will get your dose of several celebrity interviews throughout the broadcast which many people could not care less about.

Anyhow, I won’t gripe too much. This event can certainly be a fun one to watch and the stellar views at Pebble Beach are hard to beat. Looking at the 154-player field, we have a decent but not overly strong set of golfers to choose from. Only five of the world’s top 25 golfers, and 27 of the top 100, have elected to make the trip to Pebble Beach. But there are plenty of recognizable names on site, headlined by guys like Dustin Johnson, Patrick Cantlay, Jason Day, Matt Kuchar, and fan favorite (and defending champ) Phil Mickelson. Just like at The American Express tournament from a few weeks ago, the Pebble Beach Pro-Am will have a three course rotation with the cut coming on Saturday after 54 holes where the top 60 (and ties) will go on to the play the final Sunday round. Feel free to get a little risky/volatile with some of your lineups, as every golfer is guaranteed three rounds of play -- though, for a GPP takedown, you’re almost certainly still going to need a 6/6 lineup.

The Course Preview ⛳

The three courses featured this week break down as follows:

Pebble Beach Golf Links (PB)

Par: 72

Yardage: 6,816

Greens: Poa

Spyglass Hill Golf Club (SH)

Par: 72

Yardage: 6,953

Greens: Poa

Monterey Peninsula Country Club (MP)

Par: 71

Yardage: 6,958

Greens: Poa

You’ll notice each course is pretty short in length, with all three measuring under 7,000 yards. The PB course can potentially play more difficult than SH and MP, which is where you can possibly find some advantages if you elect to play in any single round DFS contests. In 2019, PB ranked as the 12th hardest course on the PGA Tour out of 49 total courses -- but it is worth noting that some in-season renovations were already underway to make the course more difficult ahead of hosting the US Open last June. Winds were also a bit heavier than they're predicted to be this week. The SH and MP courses ranked 20th and 22nd in difficulty last season, respectively. My advice for single round contests is to check the scoring averages on each course after round one to see how tough they're all playing and go from there for rounds two and three. The fourth and final round will, of course, be played on Pebble Beach GL.

The shorter course lengths don’t necessarily give an advantage to bombers, so guys who aren't necessarily long off the tee have a more even playing field this week. These courses also allow players with great short iron accuracy (100-125 yards) to excel. The greens here are also the smallest on Tour, so every golfer will need to scramble well and get 'up and down' at some point in order to avoid slipping down the leaderboard. The multi-course rotation will keep my player model fairly straightforward this week in order to find guys who should be solid all-around on all three courses. Let’s get a look at the weather, my key stats I’ll be focusing on, and some golfers to consider for your lineups!

Tee Times (Course Specific)

Weather ⛅

Wind can certainly change how difficult these three courses play, as they are all located on the Monterey Peninsula. Fortunately, it looks like conditions should be quite manageable, at least for the initial three rounds. Sustained winds should stay in the single digits on Thursday and Friday and rise to around 12-15 mph on Saturday afternoon, which still isn’t overly concerning. Things could get dicey on Sunday’s final round when wind gusts could reach upwards of 25 mph, but the 54-hole cut will have already passed by that point so golfers will just have to cross that bridge when they get there. Otherwise, in typical California fashion, there is plenty of sunshine on tap with cool coastal temps hovering in the 50s. There are no significant weather advantages to be had at this time but, as always, stay on top of things once we get closer to Thursday’s opening round. The forecast page is linked to the image below.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 25%

3. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG) | 15%

5. Short Iron Accuracy - Proximity From 100-125 Yards | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Paul Casey | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.7k

Vegas: 20/1 | Custom Model Rank: #4

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

I am by no means suggesting to overlook Dustin Johnson or Patrick Cantlay, but Paul Casey may enter this week as my favorite overall play. He may not have extensive course history here like some other golfers but he has landed a T2 and T8 finish at Pebble Beach over the last two seasons. He enters the week in solid form, making all four cuts this season with an average finishing position of 23rd. He fills out the stat sheet nicely as well, ranking 8th in the field in SG: App, 21st in BoB%, 36th in P4 AVG, 122nd in SG: ATG, and 30th in Short Iron Accuracy. The around the green play is a little concerning but he has gotten things done at Pebble Beach each of the last two years, so this is clearly a set of courses he can handle. I’ll have exposure to Casey in both tournament and cash games this week.

Brandt Snedeker | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.2k

Vegas: 22/1 | Custom Model Rank: #9

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

I’m not crazy about rolling out Sneds in cash but the guy has won this event twice (2015 & 2013) and in total has made 10/13 cuts at Pebble Beach with four total top 10 results. Course history alone makes him an appealing GPP option. He is coming off of his first missed cut of the season at the WMPO last week but I expect that will keep his ownership down in the 10% range. On paper, he ranks 64th in SG: App, 52nd in BoB%, 3rd in P4 AVG, 7th in SG: ATG, and 79th in Short Iron Accuracy. The approach shots could definitely use some fine tuning but he is one of the best golfers when it comes to getting ‘up and down’ and Poa Annua are the type of putting surfaces which he excels on. I’m expecting a nice bounce back week from him here.

Mid-Priced Targets

Cameron Champ | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10k

Vegas: 40/1 | Custom Model Rank: #14

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Champ has seemingly remodeled his entire “boom or bust” PGA DFS persona and has turned into quite a consistent golfer who is also capable of winning at the professional level. He has made 8/9 cuts this season, which includes a win (Shriners), and has finished no worse than T33 in the eight events where he has made the cut. In his Pebble Beach Pro-Am debut last year, he also came away with a solid T28 finish. On paper, he is a bit hit or miss, ranking 77th in SG: App, 3rd in BoB%, 23rd in P4 AVG, 127th in SG: ATG, and 90th in Short Iron Accuracy. His primary advantage most weeks is with his driver, which he hits further than anyone else in the field (324 yards/drive this season). As I mentioned above, all of these courses are under 7,000 yards so you really don’t need to be a bomber to succeed here. However, I believe Champ’s abnormally long drives can help set him up with super short iron shots on many of these scoring holes which can help nullify some inadequacies in his overall approach game. The guy just stuffs the scorecard with so many birdies (and the occasional eagle) and given the fact that he is guaranteed three rounds, I think he’s a viable option across the board.

Jim Furyk | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.6k

Vegas: 66/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Talk about a mid-range play that I absolutely love, especially for cash games (which is personally what I allocate about 80% of my weekly PGA DFS spend on). We haven’t seen Furyk in action in a while, as this is his first start since late-November’s RSM Classic (T23 finish), but he has made all three of his cuts this season. If we go further back into last season, he has made 11 consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour and he almost always displays a consistent performance at Pebble Beach. He finished T14 here last year and across his career he has made 14/15 cuts. The stat sheet is where he really shines and I find it to be no surprise that he has managed to stay consistent at Pebble Beach (and the other two courses) over the years. He ranks 2nd in SG: App, 17th in BoB%, 18th in P4 AVG, 40th in SG: ATG, and 12th in Short Iron Accuracy. In a day and age where many courses on the PGA Tour are tailor made for huge drivers to reign supreme, on these three courses Furyk can simply knock his ball about 270 yards down the fairway, set up for a nice approach shot, scramble when he needs to, drain some makeable putts, and turn in a solid scorecard at the end of the day. I do wish Furyk played a more recent event in order to better gauge his current form off of, but his game looked in sync back in November so there’s nothing to suggest the 49-year-old pro will have seen any drop off since then. Furyk's also paired with Tony Romo this week, so that should be fun!

Low-Priced Targets

Maverick McNealy | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.8k

Vegas: 125/1 | Custom Model Rank: #26

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Well it hasn’t taken long for the 24-year-old Maverick McNealy to become almost an every week mention in these newsletters. As long as he keeps making cuts (along with a ton of birdies) while boasting a modest DFS price tag, I don’t see any reason to stop highlighting him! McNealy has made eight consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour and the last time we saw him in action he came away with a 15th place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open two weeks back. He’s doing much of his damage with the flat stick (15th in SG: Putting) but he’s making so many birdies along the way that I’m willing to trust him in all formats heading into this 54-hole cut week. He ranks 108th in SG: App, 2nd in BoB%, 6th in P4 AVG, 52nd in SG: ATG, and 133rd in Short Iron Accuracy. So, yeah, the iron play hasn’t been elite for him but he has still managed to find plenty of success along the way. He did miss the cut in his lone trip to Pebble Beach GL in 2018 but, at the very least, that is some competitive course experience he has in his bag. Better than none at all!

Doc Redman | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.9k

Vegas: 200/1 | Custom Model Rank: #27

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

I’m really seeing some good things coming in Doc Redman’s future, and even if it isn’t necessarily this week, I believe a breakthrough performance will happen soon. Redman has been grinding out plenty of events this season and has made 9/12 cuts, including five top 35 finishes. This will be his Pebble Beach debut, however he fits the key stats model very well, especially when you take into account these basement level DFS prices which he is available for. Redman ranks 11th in SG: App, 50th in BoB%, 4th in P4 AVG, 113th in SG: ATG, and 15th in Short Iron Accuracy. Ranking 15th or better in 3/5 of my key stats is very solid and will often get anyone highlighted. Redman is also efficient at avoiding bogeys (ranks 10th), he simply needs to string together a complete week and sink a few extra putts (96th in SG: Putting) to really make some noise. He’s a very viable punt option in my eyes this week.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Dustin Johnson | DK: $11.6k, FD: $12.4k

Vegas: 6/1 | CMR: #6 | GPP Preferred

It would be difficult to not at least mention DJ this week. Only has one PGA start this season (Sentry TOC - T7) but he landed a solo 2nd place finish at the Saudi International last week and often excels at this tournament. In 11 starts at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, DJ has two wins and eight total top 10s with just one missed cut. Probably too expensive for cash games but certainly a scary guy to fade in GPPs.

Jason Day | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.5k

Vegas: 18/1 | CMR: #47 | GPP Only

Most definitely only worth a look in tournaments but his course history is incredible. His finishes in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in the last five years: 4th, 2nd, 5th, 11th, 4th. Typically putts well on Poa greens. Will need to see more consistency out of him as the season progresses to really get an idea of where his game is at these days.

Russell Knox | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10k

Vegas: 50/1 | CMR: #4 | Cash & GPP

Another mid-range guy I’m all about rostering for cash games this week. Knox has made nine straight cuts this season and has finished 14th and 15th the last two years at Pebble Beach. Excellent irons (5th in SG: App) and crushes Par 4s (5th in P4 AVG).

Tom Hoge | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.8k

Vegas: 66/1 | CMR: #7 | GPP Preferred

I’ll be honest, through years of playing PGA DFS I’m not sure if I’ve ever rostered Hoge in a single lineup. But in 2020 he has been running incredibly hot, with finishes of T12, T6, 5th, and T25. Course history is pretty crumby and I imagine the wheels can fall of this bandwagon at any time. But he’s worth some GPP shares until then.

Matthew Nesmith | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.4k

Vegas: 150/1 | CMR: #19 | GPP Preferred

Nesmith is another young golfer who likely flies in under the radar this week. The PGA Tour rookie has quietly made six of his last seven cuts, including finishes of T30, T17, T32, and T14 in his last four. No course history here but ranks inside the top 40 in 4/5 of my key stats.

Josh Teater | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.3k

Vegas: 300/1 | CMR: #64 | GPP Only

Really only mentioning Teater as a punt play because he ranks 2nd in the field in SG: Putting on Poa Annua greens (last 50 rounds). He did make the cut here last year (T45) and has a top five finish on the course way back in 2010. You know those sort of little-known golfers you see randomly pop up near the top of the leaderboard because they go en fuego on the greens? Maybe Teater can be that guy this week. Obviously don’t let him touch your cash lineup(s) though.

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That will do it for our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week!

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