By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour sets its sights towards the middle of the Atlantic Ocean where the island country of Bermuda will host the Bermuda Championship at Port Royal Golf Course. The first thing people will notice about this event is the very weak field -- likely the ‘scrubbiest’ event we’ve seen in several months. In a field consisting of around 130 players, none of the world’s top 40 ranked golfers will be on site and only eight of the top 100 golfers will be teeing it up. Still, this is a good week to get familiar with the lesser known golfers on Tour or some up-and-coming PGA talent. Also, for the first time in a few weeks we will be sweating a cut, as the top 65 (including ties) will move onto play the weekend. Feel free to get a bit more risky with your player pool this week, as ‘anything goes’ in these sort of lesser-talented events.

The Course Preview ⛳

Port Royal Golf Course is a Par 71 track (three Par 5s, four Par 3s) which extends a modest 6,828 yards, making it one of the shorter courses on the PGA Tour. This is only the second year this course has hosted this tournament, so course history should probably not be a significant factor in decision making this week. This is also a resort course, so we should expect some low scores as long as conditions are favorable. Defending champ Brandon Todd won with a score of 24-under in 2019. However, the scoring will largely be weather-dependent, as wind is a major course defense -- more on that below. Off the tee, golfers will see plenty of notable elevation changes as they aim towards fairways that are average in width and possess bunkers designed to protect the preferred landing zones. Water will also come into play on a handful of holes. Many golfers will also likely elect to go with a ‘less-than-driver’ approach on many holes, but even tee shots that miss the short grass won’t land in rough that is all too penalizing. The Bermuda grass greens are smaller in size but, again, since this is a resort course they should play relatively slow and won’t carry a vast amount slope or undulation.

Weather ⛅

This is definitely a week to keep an eye on the weather leading up to Thursday morning. Right now there is no discernible wave advantage but that could potentially change. Friday will bring 20-30+ mph winds into play but it seems like those winds will affect both waves equally. Try to run a final forecast check later today (Wednesday) or early Thursday morning just in case a noticeable advantage develops. As usual, you can find the most up-to-date weather outlook on the forecast page linked to the image below.

Bermuda Championship Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda) | 15%

5. Proximity to the Hole | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Emiliano Grillo | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 28/1 | Custom Model Rank: #4 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks*: 6th SG: App | 32nd BoB% | 28th P4 AVG | 97th SG: P (Berm) | 6th Proximity

*Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field for any given week.

Yeah, you know it’s an odd week when we’re paying into the five digit territory for a guy like Grillo, but that’s where we’re at for this event. But Grillo could be worth the lofty prices this week as he enters in on the heels of seven straight made cuts. Grillo’s game is always going to be carried by his strong iron play, which has been reliable for a while now. Unfortunately, he is one of the most frustrating putters on Tour. He’ll be one of those guys that could need to be just average, or slightly above average, to contend for a top 10 finish (or a win) come Sunday.

Peter Malnati | DK: $9k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 33/1 | Custom Model Rank: #1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 41st SG: App | 13th BoB% | 8th P4 AVG | 3rd SG: P (Berm) | 45th Proximity

Malnati has brought a complete game to the table in his last two starts and enters in off of back-to-back top 5 finishes. He is an excellent putter on Bermuda greens but his irons have also really been on point in this current little Fall swing. In those two recent starts, Malnati has gained an impressive +4.44 (Sandersons Farms Champ.) and +5.68 (Shriners) strokes on approach. Considering Malnati is far from a bomber off the tee (hits it about 295 yards/drive on average), this shorter course setup likely plays in his favor. I believe he’s worth a look across the board.

Mid-Priced Targets

Adam Schenk | DK: $8.1k, FD: $10.1k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #12 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 57th SG: App | 22nd BoB% | 24th P4 AVG | 28th SG: P (Berm) | 53rd Proximity

You have to go back all the way to late-June to find the last time Schenk missed a cut on the PGA Tour. That gives Schenk nine straight made cuts in stroke play events which have come in tournaments that, for the most part, had much stronger fields than the one he’ll be competing in this week. Two of his better finishes (T27 & T32) in his recent ‘made cut’ run have come in his previous two starts, which is always a promising trend. Cut equity has typically been the main draw for Schenk in recent months but perhaps he can come through with a top 15ish finish out in Bermuda. 

Wesley Bryan | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #6 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 8th SG: App | 2nd BoB% | 1st P4 AVG | 72nd SG: P (Berm) | 26th Proximity

Bryan is likely going to be a very popular and trendy DFS play this week but I’m not sure I’d be willing to fade him at these prices. Since returning to PGA action following a 2019 shoulder injury, which required surgery, Bryan has made 5/6 cuts on Tour highlighted by finishes of T12, T21, T24, and T31 -- again, all results which came against significantly more talented fields than the one this week. Bryan’s irons have been excellent and this shorter course is the ideal fit for his game.

Low-Priced Targets

Jason Dufner | DK: $7.1k, FD: $9k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #35 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 21st SG: App | 61st BoB% | 25th P4 AVG | 88th SG: P (Berm) | 4th Proximity

Dufner is entering off of back-to-back missed cuts, but I’m not going to give him too much grief for his most recent MC when he shot two rounds of 68 at the Shriners (-6) and missed the cut by one stroke. His ball striking has been on more than it’s been off lately and his limited distance off the tee won’t be a notable handicap at a shorter venue like Port Royal GC. Dufner likely ends up living and dying by the results of his sporadic putting game, so I wouldn’t be targeting him for cash. Dufner has been known to play well in windy conditions, which is a factor that will certainly come into play throughout Friday’s second round.

Michael Gligic | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 125/1 | CMR: #32 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 51st SG: App | 46th BoB% | 35th P4 AVG | 61st SG: P (Berm) | 62nd Proximity

I can’t imagine Gligic is the worst guy to punt in GPPs this week. He has shown some consistency and even a bit of upside on the PGA Tour lately. Gligic has made five of his last six cuts with three finishes of 26th or better. If he sniffs the top 25, that is immense value at these salaries. While course history isn’t something that should be weighed too heavily this week, Gligic did make the cut here at Port Royal GC last season (finished T53). A little former course experience and knowledge can’t be considered a bad thing, especially when we’re talking punt plays.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Will Zalatoris | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 11/1 | CMR: #11 | Cash & GPP

Zalatoris is likely going to bounce right back into being a trendy play this week but despite long term professional experience, he may be the most talented golfer in this field.

Charlie Hoffman | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #8 | GPP Preferred

I’m on board with guys like HV3 and Doc, but figured I’d point out Hoffman as a possible leverage play in this high-dollar range. He had a rough go in his last start at the Shriners, but strung together strong T6 and T14 results in his other prior two starts. Hoffman should also be considered one of the better golfers in the field when it comes to playing in very windy conditions.

Justin Suh | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #9 | GPP Preferred

B2B top 15 finishes will likely drive up Suh’s ownership. Despite pouring in a ton of birdies and showing off some crispy iron play lately, I’m probably avoiding him in cash until I see more extensive long term success. Still, he is a young golfer who has a bright future and is worth some serious consideration in this glorified Korn Ferry Tour event.

Sepp Straka | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #10 | GPP Preferred

Decent enough form heading into this week but Straka is hardly what you could call “consistent” so I’d stick to him in tournaments myself. Still, always love his upside in weak field events.

Cameron Percy | DK: $7k, FD: $8.7k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #16 | Cash & GPP

Percy seems to be healthy and is coming off of three consecutive made cuts, highlighted by a T8 at Corales and T23 at the Safeway. Great irons but will need to sink a few putts. I believe he does at least make the cut this week, so he’ll be a fringe cash viable value play in my book.

Will Gordon | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #24 | GPP Preferred

DraftKings is throwing out the bait with this price and I’ll probably be biting. If Gordon can make it past the cutline, he’ll have plenty of birdie upside as he ranks 5th in this field in BoB% and has also done well on Par 5s (10th in P5 AVG). This may be a great tune-up event for a young golfer who has flashed some really great qualities and mechanics, but has struggled to find consistency.

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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