Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview

We’ve reached the penultimate event of the season as the top 70 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings are set to tee it up for the BMW Championship held at Medinah Country Club (Course No. 3) in Medinah, Illinois -- just outside of Chicago. With only 70 players in the field there will be no cut, so every golfer will get four full rounds in, pending a withdrawal or disqualification. After this week, only the top 30 players in the FEC standings will survive to compete in the TOUR Championship at East Lake. Whoever is fortunate enough to land atop the FEC standings after that will receive a massive $15 million payday. A new sort of seeding structure has been implemented this year for the TOUR Championship which will give a huge opening round stroke advantage to the higher seeds, so this is the final week that contenders can rally for one final push up the leaderboard. Links to the complete set of playoff rules and current FedEx Cup standings are linked below.

FedEx Cup Playoff Rules

FedEx Cup Standings

Medinah CC (Course No. 3) is a Par 72 that extends a very lengthy 7,613 yards. Much of that length comes from the four Par 5s (two at 600+ yards) and the four Par 3s which range between 192 and 245 yards. The course features relatively wide tree-lined fairways with bunkers protecting certain landing zones. The two primary defenses here at Medinah CC are the very thick Kentucky Bluegrass rough and the smaller than average bentgrass green complexes. Many of these greens are elevated and well protected by hazards. Those elevated greens will cause many approach shots, which will already typically come from 175+ yards out, feel considerably longer. Several dogleg holes will force golfers to hit ‘blind’ second shots as well. With all of that said, scoring isn’t impossible here. The 2006 and 1999 PGA Championships were hosted at Medinah CC and saw winning scores of -18 and -11. Given, both of those scores came from Tiger Woods in his prime, but with the new age of athletic and powerful bombers I believe we should expect similar scoring results.

With only 70 golfers and no cut, this newsletter will be formatted a bit differently this week -- no cash/GPP star ratings or sectioned-off targets in each salary range. I always feel that more of a GPP approach is ideal for no cut events with reduced field sizes. Also remember, the best way to have a unique lineup in tournaments is to leave a few hundred dollars on the table. I can’t recall the exact source but I read an analysis of large MME PGA tournaments that mentioned (roughly) 95% of entries use at least $49.7k (DK)/$59.6k (FD). The vast majority of the time, optimal lineups won’t use 100% of the allotted salary so help your chances of creating a non-duplicated lineup by leaving $300+ on the table! Okay, let’s get into a look at the weather, some key stats to incorporate into custom player models, and some picks to consider!

Weather ⛅

With everyone guaranteed four rounds of action, weather isn’t as much of a factor in no cut events but there could still be small edges to be had. Our main focus here will be the first two rounds where we will know the tee times. With this course residing about 25 miles west of the Windy City, you would assume conditions could get a bit breezy. Gusts currently look like they will reach their peak for the tournament over the final two rounds when they’re forecasted to reach 20-25 mph (joined by potential rain). Thursday morning will see sustained winds around 10 mph with gusts hitting the high teens. Not ultra challenging wind speeds for the world’s best golfers but on a course this lengthy, that could certainly impact long drives and lofty iron shots. With calmer conditions projected for Thursday afternoon and hardly any wind in the forecast for early Friday morning, if the current outlook holds, I would give the slightest of advantages to the PM/AM wave. Things will almost certainly change once we get closer to first tee so be sure to do a final weather check Wednesday night/very early Thursday morning. The forecast page will be linked to the image below.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) | 35%

   > Emphasis on Driving Distance

2. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 25%

3. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 20%

4. Par 5 Average | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG) | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Rory McIlroy (DK: $11.5k, FD: $12.1k)

Odds to Win: 8/1

FedEx Cup Rank: #3

Custom Model Rank: #1

On a track that requires an elite off the tee game, one does not simply fade Rory McIlroy. In 17 starts this season, Rory has missed two cuts. So in 15 weeks where he has played four rounds of golf, he has carded a top 10 result twelve times. As you’re aware, everyone will play four rounds this week. It’s hard to argue the sort of dominance he has exhibited. Perhaps the opening round meltdown (and ultimately, missed cut) at The Open in his home country is still fresh in everyone’s minds. But if you haven’t been paying attention, McIlroy followed that up with a T4 at the St. Jude Invitational and a T6 at last week’s The Northern Trust. Statistically, he ranks 1st in SG: OTT, 13th in SG: App, 2nd in BoB%, 14th in Par 5 Average, and 13th in SG: ATG. Rory’s massive 314.1 average driving distance ranks 2nd in the field so Medinah CC should play right into his bomber persona. As much respect as I have for Brooks Koepka’s game, McIlroy is my top dog this week. Sitting 310 points back from Brooks atop the FedEx Cup standings, I’m predicting he outperforms him (and Patrick Reed) enough to leapfrog into first place ahead of the TOUR Championship.

Justin Thomas (DK: $10k, FD: $11.5k)

Odds to Win: 16/1

FedEx Cup Rank: #15

Custom Model Rank: #8

If you routinely read these PGA newsletters, maybe you’re tired of seeing JT’s name pop up but I can’t help but mention him (perhaps) one last time this season. As previously pointed out, Thomas’ primary struggle (post wrist injury) has been with the putter. For the first time in ten starts, he finally gained strokes on the greens at the St. Jude Invitational a couple weeks ago. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case at The Northern Trust last week but he only lost -1.28 strokes putting across the entire tournament -- not atrocious. While stringing together three consecutive finishes of T12, T12, and T11, JT’s tee to green game, particularly his iron play, has been borderline flawless. Overall, he ranks 17th in SG: OTT, 1st in SG: App, 1st in BoB%, 1st in Par 5 Average, and 17th in SG: ATG. If anyone is due for a great week with the flat stick, it’s this man. Even a slightly above average putting performance can land Thomas atop the podium come Sunday. He’s my favorite high-priced pivot for this week.

Paul Casey (DK: $8.4k, FD: $10.1k)

Odds to Win: 50/1

FedEx Cup Rank: #13

Custom Model Rank: #6

For someone who drives the ball about 300 yards on average, Casey manages to hit a ton of fairways (ranks 10th in driving accuracy). With solid length and excellent accuracy, Casey’s long and straight off the tee game should give him a bit of a leg up on the majority of the field as he likely avoids many wayward tee shots that find their way into that thick, penalizing rough. Casey is one of the few guys who opted to take last week off, so I anticipate he’ll come in fresh being two weeks removed from a respectable T13 result at the Wyndham Championship. Stats-wise, Casey hits in several key categories: 7th in SG: OTT, 8th in SG: App, 40th in BoB%, 8th in Par 5 Average, and 22nd in SG: ATG. He’s never been known as a great putter, which is why his season-long BoB% suffers. But if he can sink a few 10 footers here and there, don’t be surprised if he is in the mix late on Sunday.

Jason Kokrak (DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.1k)

Odds to Win: 66/1

FedEx Cup Rank: #32

Custom Model Rank: #17

With back-to-back finishes of T6 at the Wyndham Championship and T12 at The Northern Trust, you have to respect Kokrak’s game, which seems to be rounding back into that great form he had earlier in the season -- between January and mid-April, Kokrak tallied eight top-20 finishes across ten starts. He was a virtual cash lock in PGA DFS during that time. He fell off a bit, perhaps due to burnout from simply playing too much golf within a short amount of time. Kokrak is a bomber (306 yard average driving distance, ranks 12th) with excellent long irons which sets up perfectly for the layout at Medinah CC. Overall, he ranks 12th in SG: OTT, 6th in SG: App, 25th in BoB%, 54th in Par 5 Average, and 65th in SG: ATG. So, not great everywhere, but his strength off the tee and on approach shots is the major draw here (along with his form trending up). He’ll need a solid finish to surge into that top 30 in the FEC rankings so his motivation should not be questioned this week.

Corey Conners (DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.7k)

Odds to Win: 200/1

FedEx Cup Rank: #27

Custom Model Rank: #26

Sure, a lot of these guys mentioned thus far are pretty lousy putters… Conners being the worst of the bunch. Strength off the tee and accurate iron play is much more consistent, however, so as long as a player possesses those skill-sets, any one of these guys could see their luck on the greens increase this week. Conners has about the best tee to green game you could ask for among guys priced down in this range. Overall, he ranks 5th in SG: OTT, 15th in SG: App, 52nd in BoB%, 55th in Par 5 Average, and 59th in SG: ATG. What you can clearly tell from those numbers is that he’ll need to rely on his driver and irons to carry him. But he actually gained +2.44 strokes putting last week (finished T21) so, hey, a repeat performance would easily pay off these salaries and likely secure him a spot in next week’s TOUR Championship. He profiles as one of the better punts on the board this week.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

- Jon Rahm (DK: $10.9k, $11.8k) | Rahm has arguably the best form in the field this week. Four top 3 finishes (with a win) over his last six worldwide starts with a solo 7th and a T11 being the only outliers. When Rahm is running this hot, you have to get some exposure.

- Adam Scott (DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.9k) | As long as he keeps putting with the broomstick, no reason to count out Scott this week. He’s solid off the tee and incredible on approach and around the greens. Great bet for a top 10 finish (assuming he doesn’t roll out the short putter for some dumb reason).

- Ian Poulter ($8k, FD: $9.3k) | Glad to see Poulter’s form kicking back up with back-to-back top 10 finishes. Course history isn’t a major factor this week but Poulter’s experience here doesn’t hurt. He landed a T9 at Medinah CC back at the 2006 PGA Championship and played extremely well when the 2012 Ryder Cup was hosted here. He’s not the prototypical sort of ‘new age’ golfer I’d prefer to target here, but I like the form and past course experience/success.

- Joaquin Niemann (DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.7k) | Make no mistake, even at 20-years-old, Niemann has the chops to compete with the big boys. His T30 at The Northern Trust last week may not seem all that impressive, but I imagine it’s a nice confidence booster for a kid who has struggled in other elite field events prior.

- Lucas Glover (DK: $7.1k, FD: $8k) | Glover has been polarizing for PGA DFS players this year but you know his upside is a top 10 finish, which he accomplished a third of the time in which he played four rounds of golf (six top 10s in 18 made cuts). I’m sounding like a broken record here, but everyone plays four rounds this week. 

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd-3rd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll be around in chat all week so just tag me if you'd like a second opinion on a player or just have any other general PGA DFS questions!

🏈 NFL DFS players, be sure to check out the PreSnap Podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. Preseason preview shows rolling out now!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!