Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!

Tournament & Field 🏆

We’ve reached the second week of the PGA playoffs and the penultimate event of the season as the top 70 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings have qualified to tee it up for the BMW Championship held at Olympia Fields Country Club (North) which sits just south of Chicago, Illinois. Webb Simpson already withdrew his name from the field this week due to rest purposes, so there will be only 69 golfers in the field this week. There will also be no cut so, pending a late withdrawal or disqualification, every golfer will play all four rounds. After this playoff event, only the top 30 players in the FEC standings will survive to compete in the TOUR Championship at East Lake next week. Whoever is fortunate enough to land atop the FEC standings after that will receive a massive $15 million pay day. A new sort of seeding structure was implemented last year for the TOUR Championship which will give a huge opening round stroke advantage to the higher seeds, so this is the final week that contenders can rally for one final push up the leaderboard. Links to the complete set of playoff rules and current FedEx Cup standings are linked below.

FedEx Cup Playoff Rules

FedEx Cup Standings

The Course Preview ⛳

The North Course at Olympia Fields CC is a Par 70 that extends 7,366 yards and features four Par 3s, two Par 5s, and twelve Par 4s. We can throw course history to the wayside this week, as this course has been used competitively for mostly college/amateur events in recent years and hasn’t been featured on the PGA Tour since the 2003 US Open. The fairways here are tree-lined and range from average to narrow width. The rough is reportedly going to be cut between three and four inches but may not prove to be a major course defense. In total, 85 bunkers are scattered throughout the course along with two water hazards, which come into play on about half of the holes. The greens consist of a bentgrass/poa blend and are of average size (about 6,000 sq. feet). These greens also carry considerable slope, particularly back to front, and are guarded by deep frontside bunkers. Overshooting the greens will set up very difficult up-and-down looks and the greens themselves should run fairly fast (around 12 on the stimpmeter). While there is potential for some big numbers at Olympia Fields, the PGA often sets up this tournament to be very ‘scorable’ and winning scores at the BMW Championship have been between 20-25-under each of the last five years. If the weather cooperates (which is to be determined), then we should expect an eventual winner to land in that 20-under range once again.

With only 69 golfers in the field and no cut in play, this newsletter will be formatted a bit differently this week – no cash/GPP star ratings or sectioned-off targets in each salary range. I always feel that more of a GPP-heavy approach is ideal for no-cut events, especially the ones with reduced field sizes. Also remember, the best way to have a unique lineup in tournaments is to leave a few hundred dollars on the table. I can’t recall the exact source, but I read an analysis of large MME PGA tournaments which mentioned (roughly) 95% of entries use at least $49.7k (DK)/$59.6k (FD). The vast majority of the time, optimal lineups won’t use 100% of the allotted salary so help your chances of creating a non-duplicated lineup by leaving $300+ on the table this week! If you’re used to hand building lineups and using 98-100% of your budget all of the time, it may seem a bit uncomfortable to take this approach. However, most of these golfers have such similar upside so DFS salaries which differ by only a few hundred dollars is really just arbitrary, particularly for this week.

Weather ⛅

Weather isn’t as big of a factor in no-cut events but it is still worth paying attention to, particularly for the first two rounds since we know every golfer’s tee times. This is a course that sits right below ‘The Windy City’ of Chicago, so it’s no surprise that wind may play a factor this week. Thursday will see sustained winds sit at about 10 mph throughout the entire day with gusts ranging from 15-20 mph. Things pick up a bit on Friday when sustained winds will be 10-15 mph with 20-30 mph gusts, which could be strong in the morning. There is a chance we could see a slight wave advantage develop, and right now it seems the AM/PM wave could see the better end of the deal, but it’s too unclear to say definitively just yet. Also, it's worth noting that tee times (linked below) are cut down quite a bit with just 69 golfers in the field.

As of Tuesday afternoon, I wouldn’t let weather factor into my decision making but run a final forecast check on Wednesday night. The most up-to-date forecast can be found by clicking the image below.

BMW Championship Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 25%

3. Birdie or Better % | 25%

4. Bogey Avoidance | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 10%

Golfers to Target

Justin Thomas | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 12/1 | Custom Model Rank: #1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #2

Key Stat Ranks*: 1st SG: BS, 3rd P4 AVG, 4th BoB%, 7th Bogey Avoidance, 10th SG: ATG

*Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field for any given week.

JT has not met expectations in his last two starts but even casual golf fans and DFS players know that he is fully capable of a bounce back. He has to be highly motivated to jump Dustin Johnson, who sits atop the FEC standings after his dominant win at The Northern Trust. If you happened to read the FEC playoff rules, you know that whoever is in the top spot after this week will tee up at the TOUR Championship with a starting score already at 10-under (2nd place would start at 8-under). Thomas excels in no-cut events and since the beginning of the 2017-18 season, he has six wins and 13 top 20s in 19 no-cut tournament starts. He is a world class ball striker with excellent long irons. On this longer Par 70 set-up, many approach shots will come from 175+ yards out and JT is consistently elite in those ranges. No one is a ‘lock’ this week but I’m willing to bet that JT shows up dialed in for this tournament.

Daniel Berger | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 22/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2 | FedEx Cup Rank: #4

Key Stat Ranks: 16th SG: BS, 4th P4 AVG, 6th BoB%, 8th Bogey Avoidance, 17th SG: ATG

Berger, of course, missed the cut at the Memorial (which was a wildly brutal event where many great golfers struggled) but aside from that blunder, you won’t find a golfer on Tour who has been more consistently dominant heading into this week. If you take away the MC at the Memorial, in Berger’s other previous eight starts which date back to the Waste Management Phoenix Open in late January, he has AVERAGED a 5th place finish with a T9 (WMPO) and T13 (PGA Championship) being his “bad” results. Due to his incredibly impressive level of consistency, it is very likely that Berger ends up being the highest owned golfer on the board this week. So, that may be something to keep in mind when setting your GPP exposures. But, if you’re playing cash games this week, I’d be hard-pressed to leave him out of my lineup.

Kevin Kisner | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 40/1 | Custom Model Rank: #16 | FedEx Cup Rank: #23

Key Stat Ranks: 39th SG: BS, 21st P4 AVG, 48th BoB%, 17th Bogey Avoidance, 48th SG: ATG

Kisner isn’t one of the guys who has been ultra consistent this year but he is coming into this week on a heater with back-to-back top five finishes. He isn’t a golfer who shines through on paper via my key stats for this week simply because he is often heavily reliant on his putter. While putting is the most volatile aspect of golf, Kisner does tend to carry one of the more reliable flat sticks and he has gained +10.7 strokes putting against the field in his previous two starts (The Northern Trust & Wyndham Championship). Kisner currently sits at No. 23 in the FEC rankings and, if the TOUR Championship started tomorrow, he would begin the tournament at 1-under. A strong showing at Olympia Fields would go a long way in helping him add two or three more strokes to his pre-tournament advantage next week. He’s one of the riskier picks in this range but makes for a strong GPP target.

Harris English | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 33/1 | Custom Model Rank: #5 | FedEx Cup Rank: #6

Key Stat Ranks: 25th SG: BS, 7th P4 AVG, 25th BoB%, 2nd Bogey Avoidance, 16th SG: ATG

English did himself a world of favors after landing a solo runner-up finish at last week’s Northern Trust. He came into the week at No. 27 in the FEC rankings and left sitting at No. 6. Though it would take his absolute best golf over the next two events, along with other top guys faltering, he is a legitimate contender for becoming the 2020 FedEx Cup Champion. Is it likely? No. Possible? Yes. Similar to Daniel Berger, English has been one of the most consistent golfers on Tour heading into this week -- although his consistency aligned more with carding constant top 25s as opposed to Berger’s penchant for top five finishes. Still, English has shown why he belongs in the mix among the other more household names near the top of the FEC standings and he is absolutely a threat to keep surging.

Mackenzie Hughes | DK: $7k, FD: $8k

Odds: 150/1 | Custom Model Rank: #39 | FedEx Cup Rank: #36

Key Stat Ranks: 70th SG: BS, 64th P4 AVG, 58th BoB%, 58th Bogey Avoidance, 2nd SG: ATG

Hughes ranks near the bottom of the field in nearly every key stat but I’m interested in him (for GPPs) as a low-cost option due to one primary reason: his elite putter. As mentioned in the course breakdown, the greens at Olympia Fields feature a blended bentgrass/poa mix. Hughes ranks 7th in SG: Putting (Bentgrass) and 8th in SG: Putting (Poa) so if his putter gets really hot, anything is possible. Even though he has made just 10/20 cuts this year, he has three top 10s including two such finishes since the restart. There obviously is no cut for him to worry about missing this week but he has made six consecutive cuts entering this event, so it isn’t like he has been wildly inconsistent. He also comes in off of a T13 at The Northern Trust where he shot all four rounds in the 60s and showed the ability to not be overly reliant on the putter, as he gained +4.09 strokes tee to green against the field (and +2.44 SG: Putting). If he simply has another above average week tee to green, there is no telling how far up the leaderboard he could climb. I’m alright with throwing a little bit of a “must perform well” kinda narrative into the mix this week when building GPP lineups and Hughes currently sits six places back in the FEC standings from qualifying for the TOUR Championship.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Dustin Johnson | DK: $11.5k, FD: $12k

Odds: 8/1 | CMR: #8 | FEC Rank: #1

What DJ did last week was beyond impressive. While he has been a volatile golfer and DFS commodity this season, he has shown us what “prime DJ” looks like over his last two starts. He could regress at any time but he’ll also be a scary guy to fade at the BMW Championship.

Collin Morikawa | DK: $9.5k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 22/1 | CMR: #10 | FEC Rank: #5

After a disappointing missed cut last week, you have to imagine most people are going to decide to spend $100-$200 more on Daniel Berger, which makes Morikawa a major leverage play. It seems like his two wins recently came when people weren’t really on him, so it would not surprise me in the least if Morikawa goes out there and gets another win. This kid is going to be so good for years to come.

Patrick Reed | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #11 | FEC Rank: #10

You never truly know what to expect out of Reed but you do know that his upside is as high as anyone in the field. Bentgrass and poa are also two of his best putting surfaces so if the ball striking is there this week, look out!

Tiger Woods | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.5k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #33 | FEC Rank: #57

You see that FEC rank? That means Tiger should be in “must win” mode this week. While he wouldn’t NEED to finish 1st at this event to crack into the top 30, you have to imagine that is going to be his mindset. You can’t tell me a Tiger Woods who is in “must win” mode won’t make it into at least one of your lineups?

Russell Henley | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #15 | FEC Rank: #61

Not many golfers have been striking their irons as well as Henley has been since the restart and he enters this week off of back-to-back top 10s. He’ll need another similar finish to make qualify for East Lake.

Value & ‘Scrub’ Targets:

- Cameron Champ | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.6k

- Matt Kuchar | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.5k

- Kevin Na | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.2k

- Brian Harman | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.2k

- Brendan Steele | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.9k

- Talor Gooch | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.8k

- Tyler Duncan | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.4k

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That will do it for our BMW Championship preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week!

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