By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour sets its sights towards the middle of the Atlantic Ocean where the island country of Bermuda will host the Butterfield Bermuda Championship at Port Royal Golf Course. The first thing people will notice about this event is the very weak field – likely the ‘scrubbiest’ event we’ve seen in several months. In a field consisting of around 130 players, only three of the world’s top 50 ranked golfers will be on-site (Reed, Fitzpatrick, Bezuidenhout) and only eight of the top 100 golfers will be teeing it up. Still, this is a good week to get familiar with the lesser known golfers on Tour or some up-and-coming PGA talent. Also, for the first time in a few weeks we will be sweating a cut, as the top 65 (including ties) will move onto play the weekend. Getting 6/6 golfers past a cut line always adds a bit more of a fun factor to PGA DFS, so I’m personally happy to see a cut line is back in action. Feel free to get a bit more risky with your player pool this week, as ‘anything goes’ in these sort of lesser-talented events. Also, as I’ve said in recent weeks, I’d go pretty light on the bankroll for most of these early season events… this one is no different!

The Course Preview ⛳

Port Royal Golf Course is a Par 71 seaside track (three Par 5s, four Par 3s) which extends a modest 6,828 yards, making it one of the shorter courses on the PGA Tour. This is only the third year this course has hosted this tournament, so course history should probably not be a major factor in decision making this week -- though, one or two years of success here is certainly a plus for any particular golfer. This is also a resort course, so we should expect some low scores as long as conditions are favorable. Brandon Todd won with a score of 24-under in 2019 and, under windier conditions, Brian Gay won here in 2020 with a score of 15-under. This course has ranked as the 19th and 28th most difficult course over the last two years and has featured a cut line of +2 (2020), and -1 (2019).

Scoring will largely be weather-dependent, as wind is a major course defense at Port Royal GC – more on that in the weather section below. Off the tee, golfers will see plenty of notable elevation changes as they aim towards fairways that are average in width, but difficult to hit, and possess bunkers designed to protect the preferred landing zones. Water will also come into play on a handful of holes. Many golfers will also likely elect to go with a ‘less-than-driver’ approach on many holes, but even tee shots that miss the short grass won’t land in rough that is all too penalizing. The Bermuda grass greens are smaller in size but, again, since this is a resort course they should play relatively slow and won’t carry a vast amount of slope or undulation.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Temperature & Rain: Pleasant temps consistently in the mid-70s throughout this week. Golfers could see the rain come into play, particularly on Sunday, which currently has a chance of rain forecasted throughout the entire day.

Wind: Thursday’s opening round will be very, very windy with sustained winds in the 20-25 mph range with upwards of 30 mph gusts. Sustained winds will hover between 10-20 mph for much of the remaining rounds, but Thursday is easily expected to be the windiest round this week.

Verdict: Considering both AM/PM and PM/AM waves should be affected pretty evenly by these winds, I don’t believe either tee time group draws a weather advantage. This could change closer to first tee, so keep an eye on the most up-to-date forecast (which you can find by clicking the image below).

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda) | 10%

Bermuda Championship Model Standouts

This is a new section I’m adding showing the top 10 ranked golfers in both my key stats model (listed above) and overall model (takes into account key stats along with different weights on recent form, course history, Vegas odds, and recent fantasy points scored). This doesn’t mean these are the top 10 golfers I’m targeting, but many of these guys should be favorable DFS options this week.

Note: 40 golfers in this field haven’t played enough recent PGA rounds to qualify for strokes gained data, so keep that in mind for the stat/model rankings below.

Top 10 Golfers - Key Stats Only

1. Hayden Buckley

2. Sahith Theegala

3. Dawie van der Walt

4. Harry Hall

5. Alex Smalley

6. Nick Hardy

7. Seamus Power

8. Mito Pereira

9. Chad Ramey

10. Matt Fitzpatrick

Top 10 Golfers - Overall Model Rank

1. Seamus Power

2. Patrick Rodgers

3. Nick Hardy

4. Jason Dufner

5. Anirban Lahiri

6. Camilo Villegas

7. Mito Pereira

8. Mark Hubbard

9. Alex Smalley

10. Denny McCarthy

High-Priced Targets

Key Stats Only Rank; Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated towards each metric.

Overall Model Rank; a golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Mito Pereira | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.6k

Odds: 20/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #8

Overall Model Rank: #7

Pereira earned his way onto the PGA Tour after winning back-to-back tournaments on the Korn Ferry Tour back in June. He has since gone on to make the cut in 7-of-9 PGA starts, including three finishes of T-6 or better. On top of that, he came away with a T-4 at the men’s Olympic competition. He leads the way as the top overall ball striker in this field, which is what really plants him firmly on my radar as a spend-up option. In what is basically a glorified KFT event, in terms of strength of the field, Pereira has a legitimate chance to notch his first career PGA win this week, especially if he finds some consistency with his putter (93rd in SG: Putting - Bermuda). Mito is one of my top PGA rookies to watch out for this season and regular readers of this newsletter have already seen his name pop up several times before.

Seamus Power | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 30/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #7

Overall Model Rank: #1

Power went on a great run from May to July where he ripped off six straight top 20s, including a win at the Barbasol Championship. Since that torrid stretch, he has posted finishes of T-60 (Wyndham), T-31 (Northern Trust), MC (Sanderson Farms), and T-21 (Shriners) -- not excellent results, overall, but there’s nothing overly concerning about his recent form. Power is one of only 31 golfers in the field who has played this tournament and course each of the last two seasons, posting respectable results in both outings: T-37 (2020) & T-31 (2019). Clearly, for these salaries, we’re going to need more of a top 10ish finish out of him in order to return value. But Power has shown to be an excellent scorer (10th in BoB%, 9th in P4 AVG) and, given his recent and long term form, he should excel in this weak field.

Hayden Buckley | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 30/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Overall Model Rank: #14

Buckley is an intriguing young talent who has brought over some strong success from the Korn Ferry Tour over to the PGA Tour after posting back-to-back top 10s in his last two PGA starts. It’s a limited sample size of measured rounds, but Buckley ranks 2nd in this field in the following four categories: SG: BS, BoB%, P4 AVG, and SG: Putting (Bermuda)… so it’s easy to see why he checks in 1st overall in the key stats model. He’s still a bit of an unknown quantity who would miss-cuts on the KFT quite regularly, so I’d look to keep him slotted in as a GPP target for now. When he has made it past the cut line, he often comes away with a high finish.

Mid-Priced Targets

Sahith Theegala | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.5k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Overall Model Rank: #13

Theegala is another up-and-coming 23 y/o PGA prospect who can bomb it off the tee and get really hot with his irons. He ranks 6th or better in 3-of-5 key stats (SG: BS, P4 AVG, SG: ATG) and isn’t too shabby in the other two categories either (20th in BoB%, 28th in SG: Putting - Bermuda). He’s only a month removed from contending at the Sanderson Farms Championship, ultimately coming away with a T-8. I’d look for his distance off the tee and sharp irons to translate well to the short layout at Port Royal GC.

Russell Knox | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #43

Overall Model Rank: #29

Knox doesn’t have the cleanest recent form coming into this week but he is one of the more “PGA relevant” golfers out of this range and has played very well on both occasions here at Port Royal GC. Knox came away with a T-16 on this course in 2020 and T-11 in 2019. His best attribute is his ball striking (14th in SG: BS in this field), which is obviously a major plus this week. Unfortunately, you just never know what his putter is going to do. I’d expect Knox to hit a ton of fairways and greens in regulations… if he can stay even to the field or even gain a couple of strokes with the flat stick, he should find similar success at port Royal GC that he has seen in the previous two years.

Alex Smalley | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #5

Overall Model Rank: #9

Smalley has found a great deal of recent success across not only the PGA Tour but the Korn Ferry and Canadian Tours as well. On the PGA circuit, Smalley has made six of his last seven cuts with no finish being worse than a T-47 in that stretch (aside from the missed cut). Smalley ranks 28th or better in all five key stats, including 11th in BoB%, 10th in P4 AVG, and 8th in SG: ATG. He sets up as a strong target in all formats out of this value tier of the mid-range.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Jason Dufner | DK: $7.2k, FD: $9k

Odds: 66/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #27

Overall Model Rank: #4

It’s probably been years since I’ve highlighted Jason Dufner in a PGA newsletter but, in a very weak field, he checks off all the boxes this week: great recent form (by this tournament’s standards), respectable stats, and he has a sprinkle of course history (T-58 here in 2020). Dufner has five consecutive made cuts on the PGA Tour heading into this week, including four finishes of T-28 or better. The ball striking has begun to come back for Dufner and he’s shooting some darts onto the greens as of late (5th in the field in proximity to the hole). In a week where the value tier is an utter dumpster fire, it’s hard to look past Dufner at these salaries.

Beau Hossler | DK: $7k, FD: $8.7k

Odds: 80/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #49

Overall Model Rank: #20

Hossler relies pretty heavily on his short game (13th in SG: ATG, 3rd in SG: Putting - Overall) but if that’s what works… so be it! Hossler has made the cut in seven of his last nine PGA starts highlighted by a T-16 (Fortinet), T-15 (Barbasol), T-10 (Travelers), and a T-19 (Palmetto). Hossler is also one of those 31 players in the field who has played at Port Royal GC in each of the last two seasons, coming away with a T-26 (2020) and T-24 (2019). He does have a couple of recent missed cuts on the Korn Ferry Tour, which will make me hesitant to pull the trigger on Hossler in cash. But, given his recent run in actual PGA Tour events, he is one of the better targets out of this range.

Cameron Percy | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 100/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #45

Overall Model Rank: #16

If you dip too much further from where a guy like Percy is priced, you’re looking at a bunch of dubious PGA level talent, washed up has-beens, and some completely unknowns making their first ever PGA start. Percy isn’t out here crushing it or anything but he has reeled off eight straight made cuts on the PGA Tour and has posted a T-26 and T-48 at Port Royal GC over the last two seasons. Percy isn’t a particularly good putter, especially on Bermuda greens (82nd in SG: Putting - Bermuda), but his irons are among the best in the field (15th in SG: App, 22nd in SG: BS) and he’ll look to rely on those clubs to post another top 30-ish performance… which would be perfectly acceptable for someone priced at $6,900 (DK) and $8,500 (FD).

Others to Consider

High-Priced:

Matt Fitzpatrick | DK: $11k, FD: $11.9k | Cash & GPP

Patrick Reed | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.8k | GPP Preferred

Patrick Rodgers | DK: $9k, FD: $10.3k | GPP Preferred

Mid-Priced:

Guido Migliozzi | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.9k | GPP Preferred

Ryan Armour | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.7k | Cash & GPP

Mark Hubbard | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.2k | Cash & GPP

Low-Priced/Punts:

Greyson Sigg | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.5k | GPP Preferred

Brian Gay | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.8k | GPP Only

Dawie van der Walt | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.4k | GPP Preferred

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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