By: Ryan Humphries | On Twitter & LineStar Chat @Ryan_Humphries

Tournament & Field 🏆

After an awesome PGA Championship week, golfers will head back to the Lone Star State for the Charles Schwab Challenge held at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. Many golf fans may remember that this was the event that marked the “return to golf” last year following a three month long season shutdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It was a welcomed slice of normalcy for sports fans and it also happened to draw arguably the strongest field for a non-Major tournament in PGA history. With the PGA back on a more normal schedule, this season combined with the fact that it's a week following a Major tournament, the field for this event will not be as strong as last year. We’re still looking at a very talented set of golfers in play with 46 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers set to tee it up. The cut will also revert back to the typical rule -- the top 65 (including ties) after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend. With this being one of five invitational events on the PGA circuit, the field will consist of only 121 players. Given that over half of the players are guaranteed to make the cut, we *should* likely see a higher-than-usual “6/6 rate” among DFS lineups. It always depends on whether or not the higher owned golfers tank their first couple rounds, but the higher expected 6/6 rate is something to keep in mind when constructing lineups this week.

The Course Preview ⛳

Colonial CC is a long-standing staple on the PGA Tour. While the tournament has changed names several times over, it has been played every year for the last 75 years, dating back all the way to 1946. That will make this a great week to weigh course history heavier than usual.

Colonial CC is a shorter Par 70 which stretches 7,200 yards. This is a traditionally styled course that features tree-lined Bermuda grass fairways and small bentgrass greens which will run moderately fast (around 12 on the stimpmeter). Despite being one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour schedule, Colonial CC can often play inside the top 20 in terms of course difficulty year in and year out. The 36-hole cutline fell to 2-under here in last year’s ultra stacked field, but in each of the five years prior, the cutline landed between +2 and +5.

With only two Par 5s in play, efficient scoring on the twelve Par 4s will be imperative. This is a track where precision overrules power, so the bombers won’t necessarily have an advantage and a large portion of the field will opt to go “less than driver” off the tee -- not everyone, but many. Pinpoint accuracy is the skill-set that tends to reign supreme here and an old school well-rounded “fairways and greens” type play-style is generally rewarded. The fairways are narrow and loaded with doglegs so golfers will look to target specific landing zones to give themselves a clearer view of the greens on their approach shots. There are a total of 84 bunkers to contend with and water comes into play on a few holes as well. A sharp mid-iron game is a must as about 45-50% of approach shots will come in the 125-175 yard range. The rough here isn’t a death sentence but it is wiry and can often “snatch” golf balls, causing them to sink to the bottom. The length of the rough may also be longer than expected due to recent rainy conditions in the Fort Worth area. Combine that with the fact that the greens at Colonial CC are on the smaller side and do possess some moderate undulation, and you’ll see that efficiency around the green play can be quite important as well!

Weather ⛅

Temperatures & Rain: Golfers will see temps mostly in the 70s and 80s all week with Friday and very early Saturday morning bringing the most potential for rain.

Thursday: Sustained winds starting out at about 12 mph and picking up to 15-17 mph in the afternoon. Gusts could be an issue as they could hit 20-25 mph, perhaps a touch stronger, all throughout the day.

Friday: Sustained winds around 10-12 mph with 20-25 mph gusts in the earlier morning hours (7 am -10 am). Sustained winds will drop to single digits closer to noon with gusts that won’t be much stronger than 10 mph or so.

Weekend: Fairly calm and manageable conditions, especially on Saturday where the wind is currently forecasted to be a non-factor.

Verdict: Assuming play doesn’t need to be suspended at any point due to rain and tee times go on as scheduled, we could see a slight wind advantage for the AM/PM wave. It really just depends on whether or not those gusty conditions on Friday morning are accurate, but the winds on Thursday afternoon should also be a bit stronger than in the morning. I wouldn’t weigh it too heavily, but if you’re on the fence between two guys and one has the AM/PM tee times while the other doesn’t, I’d personally opt for the AM/PM golfer. As always, run a final weather check Wednesday evening (or very early Thursday morning) before making any final calls.

Charles Schwab Challenge Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

2. Par 4 Average | 25%

3. Birdie or Better % | 25%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field for any given week.

CMR = Custom Model Rank; a player’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above *as well as* things like course history, recent form, and recent average fantasy scoring outputs.

Collin Morikawa | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 14/1 | CMR: #2 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 1st SG: App | 6th P4 AVG | 3rd BoB% | 42nd SG: ATG | 77th SG: P (Bent)

Morikawa should come into this week with a bit of a chip on his shoulder. In his debut at Colonial CC last year, Morikawa had a seven foot birdie putt that lipped out on the 18th hole in the final round which would have given him the clubhouse lead. Instead, he parred the hole and settled for a playoff with Daniel Berger, who eventually went on to win. With accuracy and sharp iron play being required at this course, it is no surprise that Morikawa found success on his first trip here. He’s arguably the best iron player on Tour and he also ranks 4th in the field in fairway accuracy as well as 1st in greens hit in regulation. He’s made 12/14 cuts on the year and has posted five top 10s over his last nine starts, including a T8 at last week’s PGA Championship. Morikawa’s success, as it almost always does, will come down to the flat stick. If he simply putts around even to the field, the rest of his game should lead him to an almost guaranteed top 10 as it did last week, despite the fact he lost -2.27 strokes putting. If he gains a few strokes putting, he probably wins. He does tend to roll it a bit better on bentgrass greens (like the ones featured at Colonial CC) so there is a reason for optimism!

Abraham Ancer | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 18/1 | CMR: #4 | Cash Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 18th SG: App | 3rd P4 AVG | 20th BoB% | 63rd SG: ATG | 18th SG: P (Bent)

Following yet another great finish at last week’s PGA Championship (tied-8th), Ancer may very well come in as the week’s most highly owned golfer. He has finished no worse than T26 in his last eight starts and has now strung together three consecutive top 10s. In cash games, his likely high ownership shouldn’t sway you off of him, but in GPPs you’ll need to decide whether you want to go heavily overweight/underweight on him in comparison to the field… or just outright fade him. For these salaries, we do kind of need more of a top 10 out of Ancer rather than settling for a result just inside the 25. If you think he doesn’t get that top 10 finish, then feel free to go underweight on him this week -- by my guess, Ancer will be around 25% owned in GPPs, 30-35% in cash. This will be the fourth year in a row in which Ancer has competed in this event. His first two results weren’t anything special (52nd and 58th) but he put up a strong T14 here in 2020 and comes into this week in arguably the best form of his career. Ancer is a very comparable golfer to the aforementioned Collin Morikawa. His irons aren’t quite as sharp, but they still stand among the best on Tour. He hits a ton of fairways (3rd in field in fairway accuracy), greens in regulation (8th in field in GIR), and his putter is quite a bit more reliable than someone like Morikawa’s. I’ll currently pin the rare “cash preferred” tag on Ancer, but I won’t be personally fading him entirely in tournaments either.

Mid-Priced Targets

Charley Hoffman | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.5k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #7 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 6th SG: App | 27th P4 AVG | 11th BoB% | 69th SG: ATG | 85th SG: P (Bent)

The Hoffman Express just continues to roll along nice and steady. He has now made nine consecutive cuts and his T17 at the PGA Championship marked his seventh top 25 in that stretch. Hoffman brings a slew of attractive course history to the table. He missed the cut in this event last year, but that was his first and only MC at Colonial CC in 12 career starts. Considering his current form, back-to-back years of missed cuts in this event would seem highly unlikely. Hoffman tied for second in the field last week gaining +8.17 strokes on approach and I would expect his skillful iron play to help carry him to another nice finish down in Fort Worth.

Kevin Na | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #49 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 92nd SG: App | 54th P4 AVG | 55th BoB% | 1st SG: ATG | 12th SG: P (Bent)

It was a tough week down in Kiawah Island, SC for Kevin Na when opening rounds of 79 and 78 led to a missed cut by eight strokes at the PGA Championship. However, I’m not sure you could find a course that is more unsuitable for Kevin Na’s game than The Ocean Course was last week. He should be much more comfortable here at Colonial CC, evidenced by his excellent course history. He’s made 11-of-13 cuts at Colonial CC, including five top 10s and a win in 2019. He also previously tied the course record here with a round of 61. Na’s iron play has been inconsistent this season, so he may need to be carried by his short game. But, at the very least, he does provide plenty of great upside in that department (1st in SG: ATG, 12th in SG: P - Bent). I think there are safer options to go in cash games, but I’d view Na as a major upside leverage play in GPPs as his ownership will likely be around 5%.

Low-Priced Targets

Denny McCarthy | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.7k

Odds: 250/1 | CMR: #73 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 89th SG: App | 51st P4 AVG | 93rd BoB% | 30th SG: ATG | 2nd SG: P (Bent)

I’m not particularly drawn to many golfers in that $7k-$7.5k range on DK & $8.5k-$9k range on FD, so I’m going to mention a couple of complete fliers who are much closer to the bare minimum and would allow for some “stars & scrubs” builds. McCarthy is an interesting golfer to break down. His iron play is wildly inconsistent but he is one of the best pure putters on the PGA Tour and checks in at 2nd in the field in SG: Putting on bentgrass greens. Despite the erratic irons, he has managed to make seven of his last eight cuts, highlighted by a T3 at The Honda Classic back in March and a T13 at The RBC Heritage a little over a month ago. The upside is obviously there and if he can just stick around even to the field in SG: App, he could manage to post a sneaky top 25 this week. It also helps that there are only 121 players in the field this week instead of the usual 156 players in full field events.

Vincent Whaley | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.2k

Odds: 500/1 | CMR: #67 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 96th SG: App | 47th P4 AVG | 60th BoB% | 24th SG: ATG | 53rd SG: P (Bent)

I doubt this pick will surprise many who play PGA DFS on a regular basis. Really, there is no reason why Whaley should be priced just $200 above the minimum salary. PGA DFS pricing algorithms often lean heavily on Vegas odds to produce golfer salaries, so this definitely seems like a case where Whaley’s winning upside was outweighed by his ‘fantasy point per dollar’ potential and recent consistency. Is Whaley going to win and cash in on his 500/1 odds? No. But the guy has been steadily churning out rock-solid results. He’s made eight consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour and has finished between T26 and T36 in his last six starts. It’s honestly eerie how steady his final results have been. This little streak of consistency will of course end at some point, and he has zero course history at Colonial CC, but if he simply makes the cut and snags another (roughly) top 35 finish, that’d provide some excellent value. The main draw here is that rostering him would allow you to fit two or three stud golfers quite comfortably in the same lineup. I do imagine he will be far and away the highest owned ‘scrub’ this week, so do what you will with that info if you’re running a lot of GPP lineups.

Quick Hits | Other Golfers to Consider

Jordan Spieth | DK: $11.2k, FD: $12.3k

Odds: 10/1 | CMR: #1 | Cash & GPP

Spieth should be the top “fade at your own risk” candidate this week. Even in years where he wasn’t in the type of strong form he is in currently, he rarely had trouble navigating this course. He’s made all eight of his cuts at Colonial CC and has finished worse than T14 just once with six top 10s. His victory here in 2016 was bookended by runner-up finishes in 2015 and 2017.

Justin Thomas | DK: $11k, FD: $12.1k

Odds: 10/1 | CMR: #3 | GPP Preferred

JT missed the cut at the PGA Championship but if history tells us anything, he tends to bounce back in a big way. Across his last five missed cuts, his following starts produced results of T3, T6, 2nd, T13, and T15.

Patrick Reed | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 22/1 | CMR: #5 | GPP Preferred

I’d consider Reed to be the go-to high-end GPP pivot play. Most will likely gravitate towards either Spieth or Morikawa if they’re paying top dollar for a golfer, or either opt to drop down to ‘tier two studs’ like Berger, Willy Z, or Ancer. If that is the case, it’d leave Reed in ownership limbo -- likely about 10% in GPPs. He finished T7 here last year and clearly has plenty of winning upside.

Joaquin Niemann | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 26/1 | CMR: #8 | Cash & GPP

Niemann’s current made cut streak of 19 is the longest on Tour and I don’t see that streak ending here. He’s a strong ball striker and has made 3-of-3 cuts at Colonial CC highlighted by an 8th place finish in 2018.

Matt Wallace | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #25 | GPP Preferred

Wallace didn’t make it to the weekend in his Colonial CC debut in 2020, but I do like how his game sets up here. He ranks 8th in the field in SG: App and his best irons this season have been in the 125-175 yard range which, as mentioned in the course preview, will be a very common approach distance this week. Wallace also ranks 10th in SG: Putting (Bentgrass).

Chris Kirk | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.1k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #13 | Cash & GPP

Kirk has disappointed with MCs in his last two starts (PGA Champ & The Valspar) but he was on a roll prior to that and possesses some of the best course history in the field. He has made 10-of-10 cuts at Colonial CC with a win in 2015 and an average tournament finish of 29th.

Camillo Villegas | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #29 | GPP Only

Villegas has withdrawn from the last three tournaments for undisclosed reasons, so there are some obvious concerns to be had here. But he was playing very well prior to those WDs, posting four top 25s in his last five starts. His course history is very spotty and his last appearance at Colonial CC resulted in a WD in 2017. That will make him a high risk, high reward GPP only play.

Talor Gooch | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 125/1 | CMR: #32 | GPP Preferred

Gooch has made the weekend in seven of his last eight starts so he could probably be considered a fringe cash play as well. He’s been more consistent with his irons this season and bentgrass greens have provided his best putting splits as well. As I mentioned above, this general salary range feels pretty “meh” to me this week, but Gooch is one of the few guys I’m on board with.

Adam Schenk | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 200/1 | CMR: #53 | GPP Preferred

Much better value on DK. Schenk has three top 35s in his last four starts. He missed the cut here in 2018 and 2019 but landed an adequate T43 last year. He’s not an exciting play but there’s some room for upside at $6,500 on DraftKings.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Joaquin Niemann

Maybe I should save him for a bigger tournament, but ah well. Niemann provides a strong floor as he rides his PGA Tour best 19 made cut streak. Decent course history with strong top 10 potential will make me pull the trigger on him as my OAD pick this week.

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options still have available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the 2020-21 season.

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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