Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions! 

The long wait is over! The PGA returns this Thursday from a three month hiatus and, given the turbulent state of affairs in the world lately, this should be a much needed dose of normalcy for sports fans. So I’d like to welcome everyone back to the latest edition of the LineStar Weekly Drive and here is to hoping anyone reading has been able to stay safe and healthy in the recent weeks and months. Now, there is plenty to get into, so I won’t waste much time, but I wanted to quickly say that anyone who may be new to the sport of golf and PGA DFS in general, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat or hit me up on Twitter with any questions you may have. I’m always happy to help! Now, let’s get down to business!

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour gets back to action down in Fort Worth, Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge which is held at Colonial Country Club. Typically this event doesn’t draw an ultra strong field but, for pretty obvious reasons, the field this week will be absolutely stacked with talent which would rival that of a Major Championship. Among the field of 148 players, seven of the world’s top 10 golfers are on site, as well as 70 of the top 100. The big boys are definitely here in droves. With just 14 events remaining on the revised 2019-20 PGA Tour season schedule, expect elite fields to be pretty much the new norm. The Charles Schwab Challenge will follow the typical cut rule, so the top 65 golfers (incl. ties) after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

Course: Colonial Country Club

Par 70 - 7,209 yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 6th, 20th, 7th, 18th, 21st

Cut Line Last 5 Years:

2019: +3

2018: +3

2017: +5

2016: +2

2015: +2

Last 5 Winners:

2019: Kevin Na -13

2018: Justin Rose -20

2017: Kevin Kisner -10

2016: Jordan Spieth -17

2015: Chris Kirk -12

Colonial CC is a shorter Par 70 which has a classic tree-lined layout and small greens. Despite being one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour schedule, Colonial CC routinely plays as one of the more difficult venues year in and year out. We are very likely to see a cutline above par come Friday evening. With only two Par 5’s in play, efficient scoring on the twelve Par 4’s will be imperative. This is a course where precision trumps power, so the bombers won’t necessarily have an advantage. Rather, pinpoint accuracy is the skill-set that reigns supreme and an old school “fairways and greens” play-style is generally rewarded. The fairways are narrow and loaded with doglegs. There are a total of 84 bunkers to contend with and water comes into play on a few holes as well. A sharp iron game is a must and about 45-50% of approach shots will come in the 125-175 yard range.

Now, there are many extra levels of variance in play this week due to the long layoff. “Recent form” is nonexistent, so it makes sense to rely more on a long term model this week. Golfers who have extensive course experience and success can’t hurt either, but remember that the overall talent level for this year’s Charles Schwab Classic is much, much stronger than it has been in recent years. There really is no surefire way to predict how things will go this week. Who knows how much rust some of these guys will need to shake off? I am certain that some players, particularly those without kids, were able to use their time off to maintain or improve their golf game more than others. But how will it translate into an actual competition? There is also the aspect of no fans and no grandstands on the course. Without those large structures in the way, this will expose some sizable run-off areas on certain holes. Additionally, without fans trampling down other areas of grass, golfers who hit errant shots may very likely find themselves with much more difficult lies.

We could probably try to over-analyze all of the unusual angles that this week will bring but perhaps it will be best to just pick a simple process and stick to it. If you’re not comfortable with the amount of uncertainty surrounding this event, just be wary of spending too much of that bankroll! In the end, I am just happy to be able to watch live PGA golf again!

Weather ⛅

One of Colonial CC’s primary defenses is weather and, more specifically, wind. It seems that won’t be much of an issue this year, however, as winds are hardly projected to get above 10 mph all week. It will be sunny and HOT with temperatures in the 90s for much of the tournament. This could cause some issues with the bentgrass greens running fast due to getting baked out, so the grounds crew may be watering them down at times if conditions get a little too out of control. But that is really the only concern when it comes to the weather this week and I see no particular advantage for either wave given the current forecast. As always, run a final check on Wednesday night just in case anything changes. 

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

2. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 25%

3. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 20%

4. Proximity from 125-175 Yards | 15%

5. Bogey Avoidance | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Justin Thomas | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 16/1 | Custom Model Rank: #27

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

The only real argument I can see against Thomas for this week is his lack of course history, otherwise JT is in an absolute prime spot here. He may be making his Colonial CC debut but his game should fit this course like a glove. Thomas has gained the 7th most strokes on Par 70 courses over the last 50 rounds and he is deadly accurate with his mid-irons, particularly in that 125-175 yard range. In this field JT ranks 5th in SG: App, 2nd in P4 AVG, 2nd in BoB%, 1st in Prox. 125-175 Yards, and 8th in Bogey Avoidance. I weigh course history in my personal model but in my “key stats only” model Thomas pretty comfortably checks in as the top overall player. I won’t keep repeating this but, as a reminder, this three month layoff is definitely going to expose plenty of rust for a lot of golfers. But from everything I’ve seen, Thomas has been doing plenty to stay on top of his game. I typically prefer a more balanced approach for cash games and Thomas’ price is perhaps just a tad too restrictive for my taste (though most of the pricing is pretty soft this week) but he’s a clear top play for GPP lineup builds.

Webb Simpson | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 22/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Simpson is a pretty straightforward play and may end up being the highest owned golfer in the field, so I’m not exactly going out on a limb with this suggestion. But ownership be damned, I will have plenty of Webb on my rosters this week given how dominant he was prior to the shutdown. Simpson hasn’t missed a cut in six starts this season and prior to a very disappointing T61 at his last start (WGC-Mexico Championship) he had five consecutive top 10 finishes (incl. a win at the WMPO). Simpson also destroys Par 70s, ranking 1st in the field in SG: Total on Par 70s over his last 50 rounds. He’s a premiere iron player, very strong putter, and rarely gets in his own head after a bad hole. He ranks 4th in SG: App, 1st in P4 AVG, 1st in BoB%, 27th in Prox. 125-175 Yards, and 1st in Bogey Avoidance. Simpson has also shown prior success at Colonial CC with back-to-back top 5 finishes in 2016 & 2017. He is in play in all formats, however his likely high ownership in GPPs may be worth leveraging against.

Mid-Priced Targets

Matt Kuchar | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 40/1 | Custom Model Rank: #5

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Kuch is the exact kind of “fairways and greens” grinder that fits the sort of demands this course requires. Unsurprisingly, he has had a ton of success at Colonial CC with just one missed cut in 11 career starts. Kuchar has finished inside the top 10 here three times and has an average finish of 31st. He is yet another strong performer on Par 70 courses (ranks 9th in SG: Total over his last 50 rounds) and will likely be one of the safer investments you could make this week. Per the key stats, Kuchar ranks 55th in SG: App, 24th in P4 AVG, 31st in BoB%, 24th in Prox. 125-175 Yards, and 19th in Bogey Avoidance. He sets up as an ideal cash play but he’s worth some GPP exposure as well.

Kevin Na | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 50/1 | Custom Model Rank: #21

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

I always feel a bit slimy when recommending a player who won the same exact event in the previous year, but Na’s affinity for Colonial CC is impossible to ignore and he is simply priced too low on both sites. Na has made the cut at Colonial CC in 11 of 12 attempts and along with his win here last season, he holds four additional top 10 finishes including a T4 in 2018. He checks in at 12th in the field in SG: Total on Par 70s over his last 50 rounds. He ranks 43rd in SG: App, 77th in P4 AVG, 48th in BoB%, 61st in Prox. 125-175 Yards, and 21st in Bogey Avoidance. Sure, some of his key stat rankings are underwhelming but it is worth noting that his recent splits putting on bentgrass are incredible. In Na’s last 16 rounds on bentgrass greens, he ranks 1st in the field gaining an average of 1.82 strokes per round. It can be a bit frightening rolling out a golfer who often relies heavily on his putter but his course history and affordable price tags puts some of that concern to rest.

Low-Priced Targets

Harris English | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 80/1 | Custom Model Rank: #7

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

English was in the midst of having a helluva season prior to the break after posting five top 10s in 11 events with just one missed cut. Now he returns to action at a course where he has made 5/6 cuts with a couple top 5 finishes (2nd in 2016, 5th in 2012). English is simply playing very solid golf this year and has managed to avoid making hardly any costly mistakes along the way. He ranks 32nd in SG: App, 8th in P4 AVG, 41st in BoB%, 88th in Prox. 125-175 Yards, and 4th in Bogey Avoidance. I expect he’ll be another popular play so I’d be fine lowering exposure to him in GPPs or even using him only in cash games.

Bernhard Langer | DK: $6k, FD: $7k

Odds: 500/1 | Custom Model Rank: N/A

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Up to this point, I’ve highlighted mostly safe and highly touted plays, so it’s about time to go off the rails a little bit. Langer checks in at the stone cold minimum salary on both sites this week and may be worth throwing in as a Hail Mary in a stars & scrubs build. The 62-year-old German golfer isn’t on the PGA Tour any longer but he gets in the field this week on a sponsor exemption. These days (well, prior to the global pandemic) Langer spends his time running through the other old guys on the PGA Tour Champions where he has accrued 41 wins since 2007. But why should I have faith in him this week when he’s competing against 70 of the top 100 players in the world? Well, because the two-time Masters champ (‘85, ‘93) has shown that he can still hang with the world’s top players, at least to some degree. In his last three PGA Tour appearances, Langer has made the cut each time out with finishes of T62 (‘19 Masters), T24 (‘18 Open Championship), and T38 (‘18 Masters). Colonial CC’s 7,200 yard length shouldn’t be too much for Langer to handle, as his average driving distance of 278 yards should be just fine as long as he keeps it in the fairway. His 78% driving accuracy currently ranks 14th on the PGA Tour Champions so I have faith he’ll avoid too many wayward tee shots. This is by no means a safe pick but rostering him will let you fit guys like Rory, JT, or Rahm with relative ease and Langer doesn’t have to do too much beyond just making the cut in order to return value.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Xander Schauffele | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 28/1 | CMR: #16 | GPP Preferred

Schauffele hasn’t had much success at Colonial CC but he remains one of my favorite leverage plays in this price range due to his strong irons (8th in SG: App) and his prowess on Par 4s (7th in P4 AVG). The putter is typically what holds him back from top 5 finishes/wins but he has positive splits on bentgrass greens so if he rolls a few putts in that he’s been missing previously, the X-Man could quite reasonably ‘ship this tournament.

Patrick Reed | DK: $9.2k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 28/1 | CMR: #4 | Cash & GPP

Reed has cashed five top 10 checks in ten starts this season. He has one of the best short games in golf and he can certainly get a leg up on the field with all the Par 4s out there this week (ranks 5th in P4 AVG).

Collin Morikawa | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #33 | Cash & GPP

It isn’t a stretch to consider Morikawa the best iron player in the world right now (ranks 1st in SG: App) he just needs to figure things out with the flat stick (114th in SG: Putting). I’d be pretty shocked if he hasn’t been working to improve his game on the greens in these recent months. Regardless of his putting woes, Morikawa still hasn’t missed a cut since turning pro, so he seems like a safe guy to target this week.

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $8.4k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #39 | Cash & GPP

There several reasons why Scheffler has some of the best odds to win among players in this price range. The guy can absolutely dial it in at any time and he currently ranks 3rd in both P4 AVG and BoB%. With plenty of people newer to PGA DFS likely testing the waters this week, Scheffler is a lesser known name (among casual/semi-casual fans) and could be a nice ownership leverage target.

Billy Horschel | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #29 | GPP Preferred

Horschel has flashed really strong upside this season with four top 10s in 11 events and he excels on Par 70 courses where he ranks 5th in SG: Total over his last 50 rounds. In his two appearances at Colonial CC he has finished 19th (2019) and 34th (2018). I’m tempted to consider him a cash viable play but I’m just not 100% sold on his iron game right now, so I’ll personally be restricting him to GPP lineups.

Ryan Palmer | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #25 | Cash & GPP

Want an affordable course horse but don’t have the guts to roll out Jordan Spieth? Well, Palmer could be your guy. He has made the cut in 12 of 15 appearances at Colonial CC including four finishes of 6th or better. He has shown a very well-rounded game through nine starts this season while missing just one cut and posting a couple top 10s along the way.

Brian Harman | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 125/1 | CMR: #22 | GPP Preferred

Harman has had a very strong run at Colonial CC after making the cut in six straight seasons with finishes of 31st, 14th, 7th, 25th, 10th, and 30th. For his current salaries, I’d be pretty content with any one of those finishes, especially when you consider he is the 67th highest priced option on FanDuel. The only concern is whether or not he can continue his success at this venue when all the additional talent is thrown into the mix. 

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That will do it for our Charles Schwab Challenge preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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