Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview

The PGA Tour moves on from another Koepka-dominated Major and heads back to the Lone Star State to Fort Worth, Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge held at the Colonial Country Club. This event, formerly known as the Fort Worth Invitational (and many other names), will have half of the world’s top 10 ranked players in attendance, as well as 25 of the top 60. Also, since this tournament carries invitational status, the field is smaller with around 121 players competing. However, the traditional 36-hole cut rule remains the same where the top 70 (and ties) will move on to play the weekend. This should produce a higher than usual '6/6 percentage' but I suppose that always depends on how many chalk players bomb for the week! Keep in mind, contests will lock when the first tee time begins at 8:00 am ET on Thursday.

Colonial CC is a shorter Par 70 that checks in at 7,209 yards. Despite defending champ Justin Rose raking in a 20-under winning performance, it ranked as the 20th most difficult course on TOUR last season and the cut line has been above par for the last five years. Being a Par 70, that means there are only two Par 5’s in play, making efficient scoring on the twelve Par 4’s imperative. This is a track where bombers don’t necessarily have an advantage. Rather, pinpoint accuracy is the skill-set that reigns supreme and an old school “fairways and greens” play-style is generally rewarded. The tree-lined fairways are narrow and loaded with doglegs. There are plenty of sand hazards to contend with and water comes into play on nearly half of the holes -- primarily positioned in areas to protect the greens. A sharp approach game is a must and the largest percentage of second shots come from the 150-175 yard range. The greens themselves are bentgrass that run fast -- there hasn’t been a ton of rain in the area so, if the course is relatively dry, they could run faster than usual. Being in Texas, the weather can always play a major factor and wind could spell trouble for the field this week. Let’s get a quick look at that weather, some key stats I am basing my tournament model on, and some detailed looks at potential golfers to target this week!

Also, I want to give a quick shoutout to Erik Groset, Dan O’Grady, and the rest of the LineStar crew. May 22nd will mark one year to the day since I began writing content for LineStar and it started with last year’s Fort Worth Invitational PGA article. I’ve thoroughly enjoyed covering not only the PGA, but the NFL, college football, and the MLB as well. It’s been a blast! As a huge sports fanatic and DFS ‘enthusiast’, I’m very thankful for the opportunity to work with an incredible company with an equally amazing product and I hope subscribers have enjoyed the articles along the way. Much love, all around!

Weather ⛅

It would seem that rain won’t be a problem this week but wind conditions could be a bit troublesome. The good news, I suppose, is that the winds are currently forecasted to be fairly consistent throughout the first couple rounds. On both days, for both waves each day, the sustained winds should hover around 15 mph with gusts in the 25-30 mph range. No advantage can be given for either wave right now but, as always, try to check late Wednesday evening (or very early Thursday morning) for the most up-to-date outlook. The forecast page will be linked to the image below.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 30%

2. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 25%

3. Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG: T2G) | 20%

4. Driving Accuracy | 15%

5. Proximity 150-175 Yards | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Jon Rahm (DK: $11.2k, FD: $12k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

I wouldn’t say Rahm had a “meltdown” during his five-over par second round in last week’s PGA Championship (where he went on to miss the cut by one stroke), but Bethpage Black definitely got the best of him that day. Rahm is an emotional player who you can visually see when he is getting in his own head in the midst of a bad round. Still, when he is dialed in, you can tell why he got to as high as the number two ranked player in the world at the start of last season. He will look for a quick bounce back from an off week as he returns to Colonial CC for the third straight year where he finished 5th last season and 2nd in 2017. We can’t quickly forget that, prior to last week, Rahm was 11/11 on cuts made this season with top ten finishes in a whopping eight events. He ranks 1st in P4 AVG, 25th in SG: App, 4th in SG: T2G, 60th in Driving Accuracy, and 43rd in Prox. 150-175 Yards. While Rahm fits more of the prototypical “bomber” profile, which this course doesn’t require, he has clearly shown the ability to adjust his game to the course over his first two starts at Colonial CC. I don’t see a need to go with him for cash builds, but he’s an elite GPP option. He is essentially tied with Justin Rose as the odds on favorite at 12:1 and he is the top rated player in my tournament model.

Paul Casey (DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.9k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

If Casey had a bit more fortune on the greens last week, he could have easily landed a top 10 finish. He was 7th in SG: T2G at Bethpage Black but lost nearly a stroke putting per round. The course this week is more of an ideal fit for his game and I would bank on a top 20 finish to easily be on the horizon. In his last trip to this event in 2017, he had a 10th place finish and has made the weekend in 4/5 starts at Colonial CC. He carries a very accurate driver and is able to set himself up for favorable mid-range approach shots better than most anyone else in the field. Overall, he ranks 17th in P4 AVG, 7th in SG: App, 2nd in SG: T2G, 10th in Driving Accuracy, and 17th in Prox. 150-175 Yards. Casey is 90th in SG: Putting and simply needs to have an average week on the greens to pull off a top 10 finish. An above average week with the flat stick could very well result in a win considering how strong he is in literally every other key metric that will lead to success. As I often say, the ability to predict when someone will putt well or poorly is just not possible. Some of the worst putters on TOUR will go unconscious on the greens in any given week and demolish the field on their way to a victory. Regardless, Casey makes for a strong foundation in cash builds and a pretty solid GPP target as well. He has 28:1 odds to win and ranks 7th in the tournament model.

Mid-Priced Targets

Emiliano Grillo (DK: $8.7k, FD: $10k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

For long stretches over the last couple of seasons, Grillo was pretty much a perennial cash play. His DFS salaries kind of caught up to his consistency and some of the appeal was lost with his implied value. While I do wish he was a few hundred dollars cheaper, I also can’t deny the extreme amount of cut equity he brings to the table after only missing one cut this year in 14 events, and just three MCs in his last 44 worldwide starts. Like Casey, Grillo is another guy who is super consistent tee to green but struggles with the flat stick. Last week, he carded a T23 finish at the PGA Championship while staying essentially even to the field in putting (-0.04 SG: Putting) and gained strokes everywhere else (T2G, App, OTT, ARG). If that trend continues, he’ll have a very strong week in a much more favorable field. He ranks 73rd in P4 AVG, 3rd in SG: App, 8th in SG: T2G, 21st in Driving Accuracy, and 6th in Prox. 150-175 Yards. Obviously, that Par 4 average needs to be better but it is also directly linked to his woes with the putter (104th SG: Putting). Another repeat performance of merely average play on the greens and Grillo can skyrocket up the leaderboard. He’s made the cut here at Colonial CC in all three of his starts and carded a 3rd place finish last year. He has 45:1 odds and ranks 18th in the tournament model.

Russell Knox (DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.1k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Knox is another guy who missed last week’s cut by a stroke but should be in for a rapid turnaround at a course in which he’s made 3/3 cuts with all three finishes being between 20th and 24th place results. What seems to be a running theme here, Knox is someone who excels tee to green but he hasn’t gained strokes putting since the Pebble Beach Pro-Am (seven starts ago). He finished T14 that week. All it takes is a good week on the greens! I’m sure I’m starting to sound like a broken record. He ranks 43rd in P4 AVG, 6th in SG: App, 13th in SG: T2G, 36th in Driving Accuracy, and 58th in Prox. 150-175 Yards. I think he is viable in all formats and makes for a good pivot away from Jim Furyk who is $100 cheaper on both sites and projects to be a popular play this week. Knox has 80:1 odds and checks in at 22nd in the tourney model.

Low-Priced Targets

Brian Stuard (DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.6k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Stuard looks like an excellent pathway to some salary relief after reeling off 10 made cuts in his last 12 starts with five top 25’s along the way. He’s also made 4/5 cuts at Colonial CC including a 32nd place finish last year and a 24th place finish in 2017. I’d take similar results as those from a guy this cheap 10 times out of 10. Statistically speaking, there’s really not much to complain about. He’s 15th in P4 AVG, 22nd in SG: App, 38th in SG: T2G, 5th in Driving Accuracy, and 52nd in Prox. 150-175 Yards. With an average drive of 276.4 yards this season, he’s still managed to perform well on courses where bombers tend to be the overlying vanquishers. We should only expect good things this week when a huge driver isn’t exactly a major advantage. No one is really going to be looking to cash in on his 110:1 odds to win but he stands out in a big way, ranking 6th in my tournament model.

Michael Thompson (DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.9k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Thompson has a bit of a pattern going over his last seven events: missed cut, made cut, missed cut, made cut, missed cut, made cut, missed cut. Not that there’s any merit to trends like that but, if there were, well hey… he’s in line to make the cut this week! Thompson’s four top 10’s on the season pretty much exceeds that of anyone else priced around him and he’s made 5/6 cuts at Colonial CC -- including a T32 last year and a T10 in 2014. Some of the courses he’s been picking up MC’s on just don’t fit his play-style. Harbour Town GL (RBC Heritage) is a much better fit for him -- a short, tight track where distance isn’t crucial. Lo and behold he carded a T10 there just a month ago. Looking at the numbers, they’re not stellar but definitely passable: 30th in P4 AVG, 66th in SG: App, 43rd in SG: T2G, 12th in Driving Accuracy, and 93rd in Prox. 150-175 Yards. I think he makes for a great risk/reward value play… and really, I don’t think he’s all that risky for cash but it doesn’t seem necessary when there are slightly better options to go with in his price range.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced

- Rickie Fowler (DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.8k) | Cash & GPP | Tied with Rahm for 1st in P4 AVG and he is great with his mid-range irons (12th in Prox. 150-175 Yards). Under-performed on the weekend at Bethpage but I imagine Brooks instilled apathy in a lot of golfers. Much easier course to tackle this week (though, still not easy) and Fowler finished 14th here last season.

- Xander Schauffele (DK: $10k, FD: $11.3k) | Cash & GPP | The same said for Rickie can pretty much be repeated for the X-Man. Though, despite a six-over final round last week, Schauffele still finished T16. The only thing he needs to stay on top of is his accuracy off the tee (77th in Driving Accuracy). Otherwise, he ranks top 10 in P4 AVG, App, and T2G.

Mid-Priced

- Joel Dahmen (DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.6k) | Cash & GPP | Ranks 35th or better in all key stats. T20 finish in his first Colonial CC appearance last year. Not traditionally a guy you’d pay these mid-range salaries for but the DFS sites have finally caught up and adjusted his pricing to better represent his current skill level and upside.

- Brandt Snedeker (DK: $7.9k, FD: $10.1k) | Cash & GPP | Irons are shaping back into form and he was 13th in SG: T2G last week. Great course history with 8/8 cuts made at Colonial CC including a runner-up finish in 2015.

Low-Priced

- Corey Conners (DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.9k) | GPP Only | I believe Conners is a sneaky 100:1 pick to win this week (or miss the cut by several strokes). 2nd in SG: App, 3rd in SG: T2G, 2nd in Prox. 150-175 Yards. Simply another very inconsistent putter who needs to have a hot week with the flat stick to have major success. Finished 8th here last year in his event debut.

- Ryan Armour (DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.4k) | Cash & GPP | He’s not a sexy name and is a stretch to consider a cash play but, c’mon, he shouldn’t be this cheap! Can succeed on a short course like this, evidenced by his T14 here last year. 25th in P4 AVG, 3rd in Driving Accuracy, 26th in Prox. 150-175 Yards. Missed the cut last week (by a stroke) but was actually 12th in SG: T2G. Just lost too many strokes putting. He’s basically min-priced and definitely shouldn’t be.

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd-3rd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll be around in chat all week so just tag me if you'd like a second opinion on a player or just have any other general PGA DFS questions!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!