By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour will remain in Sin City for the second consecutive week as some of the world’s best golfers prepare to tee it up for The CJ Cup, which will be held at The Summit Club in Las Vegas, NV. This is a small but talented field with 61 of the 78 golfers in attendance ranking inside the top 100 of the Official World Golf Rankings -- including 20 of the top 25. As you might expect given the small field, there will be no cut in play this week.

As is often the case in early PGA season events, things can be fairly brutal in DFS and we’re seeing extremely low 6/6 lineup rates. I would continue to recommend a lower bankroll spend than you would normally deploy. Once we get into the new calendar year, we’ll begin to see more consistently strong fields at tournaments with more extensive course history. While there is no shortage of talent this week, the lack of course history and no cut will make this another low-spend week for me, personally. I’ll be allocating around 5-7% of my bankroll towards PGA this week -- whereas normally I’ll go in around 10-15%… 20% if I’m really loving a particular event and the golfers in the field. But this is just a recommendation. Everyone is entitled to take on their own personal level of risk!

The Course Preview ⛳

The Summit Club is a Par 72 which will extend just over 7,400 yards. Just like Shadow Creek Golf Course, which was the Vegas venue of choice for The CJ Cup last year, there will be scenic views of the Vegas strip along with a backdrop featuring desert peaks. Both Shadow Creek and The Summit Club were designed by Tom Fazio and share many of the same qualities. Golfers aren’t going to feel like they’re in the middle of the desert as they’ll be targeting lush, expansive fairways. While this is a longer par 72, the elevation of around 2,000 feet will help shorter hitters compete just as well as the longer hitters. There are 64 bunkers scattered around the grounds with four water hazards in play as well. The greens here feature bentgrass and carry some noticeable contours and slope. Many of those aforementioned bunkers are protecting the greens and will act as a main course defense. Really, this is looking like another second shot course. With very little wind troubles in the forecast, there is significant potential for this turning into another birdie-fest so strategy will be fairly basic this week. Plenty of emphasis should be placed on players with a strong approach game and a high birdie or better percentage.

With no cut in play, GPP lineup construction can often center around a stars and scrubs approach. Many of the golfers priced in the $6k/$7k ranges on DraftKings and $7k/$8k ranges on FanDuel still possess a ton of talent and aren’t your typical “scrub” level players you’ll see in those price ranges most weeks. Pending a withdrawal due to injury or a disqualification, everyone will have four full rounds to rack up birdies this week. 

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

It’s a small field (more closely grouped tee times) and there is of course no cut, so weather/wave advantages carry much less of a potential impact. In any case, we’ll still take a quick look at this week’s conditions.

Temperatures & Rain: Cooler mornings with afternoon temps only reaching into the mid-70s. There is no notable risk of rain at any point. This should be a pleasant week of golf!

Winds: Basically a non-factor. Winds look like they won’t even touch the double-digits this week.

Verdict: No wave advantage.

The CJ Cup Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gaines: Approach | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Strokes Gaines: Putting (Bentgrass) | 15%

5. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stats Only Rank; Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated towards each metric.

Overall Model Rank; a golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Collin Morikawa | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 16/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #19

Overall Model Rank: #25

This will be Morikawa’s first start of the new season. When we last saw him in competitive action during the FedEx Cup playoffs, he wasn’t exactly at the top of his game. However, perhaps some time off will be exactly what he needed in order to hit the old reset button and come out fresh and in finer form. Morikawa does come in with a notable advantage this week. The Vegas resident is a member of The Summit Club and has played plenty of non-competitive rounds at this course. In a week where nearly every golfer in the field is playing this course for the first time, Morikawa draws a legitimate mental edge.

Sam Burns | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 28/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Overall Model Rank: #1

Burns is coming in with some of the best short-term and long-term form in the entire field. He was making the push at going for back-to-back wins last week before his putter began to fail him down the stretch. He still came away with a solid T-14 and has simply been a ball-striking machine. Burns pours in a ton of birdies even when he doesn’t necessarily have a hot putter. He ranks 28th in the field in SG: Putting (Bentgrass), so normally he’s going to come away inside the top half of the field in that category.

Louis Oosthuizen | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 30/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #6

Overall Model Rank: #6

I’m really liking the salaries on Oosty this week, who ranks 17th or better in 4-of-5 of my key stat metrics. The only area where he falls short is his 53rd ranking in SG: Putting (Bentgrass). However, while bentgrass may not be his preferred putting surface, he’s one of the best putters on Tour and ranks 1st in the field in SG: Putting (Overall). Outside of a lackluster T-38 at the BMW Championship, Oosthuizen has finished no worse than T-18 in his previous 10 PGA starts.

Mid-Priced Targets

Marc Leishman | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.1k

Odds: 45/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #33

Overall Model Rank: #17

The mid-range is loaded with talented golfers, but many are either riding some poor long-term form or are coming off of very uninspiring performances in their previous start. Leishman has some concerning results in the long term, but he has started off his 2021-22 PGA season on fire with a T-3 at the Fortinet Championship and T-4 at the Shriners Childrens Open. While I don’t love this price range this week, Leishman is a worthy target out in Las Vegas. He checks in as a better bargain on FanDuel.

Shane Lowry | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 45/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #42

Overall Model Rank: #25

Lowry has not appeared in a PGA fall tournament yet this season but he is coming off of two excellent finishes over on the EURO Tour -- a T-4 and T-17. Lowry brings sharp iron play to the table (17th in SG: App). The putter often holds him back but if he can manage to gain a couple of strokes against the field in that department, I could see Lowry push for a top 15 result this week.

Harold Varner III | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.7k

Odds: 70/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #20

Overall Model Rank: #15

HV3 has been as steady as it gets with finishes of T-11, T-16, T-12, and T-11 in his previous four PGA starts. He comes in ranking 18th in the field in SG: App and 9th in BoB%. He’s priced as the 34th (DK) and 36th (FD) most expensive player in the field this week but will have some very apparent top 20 upside.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Cameron Tringale | DK: $7k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 66/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #4

Overall Model Rank: #11

Tringale crushes the key stats, ranking no worse than 25th in any single category. He had a forgettable weekend at the Shriners which led to a lackluster T-56 finish, but he’s often a guy who pieces together four solid rounds and comes away inside the top 25 even in fields loaded with talent. I’d look for a nice bounce back performance this week. Better bargain on DraftKings.

Jhonattan Vegas | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.8k

Odds: 125/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #40

Overall Model Rank: #35

Vegas stands out as one of the more enticing punt plays in stars and scrubs builds. Not that there is a cut in play this week, but Vegas has made the cut in nine of his last ten events in which a cut was in play. That simply proves that he has been a consistent force on the PGA Tour. And he hasn’t just been grinding out cuts. Including his T-16 at the men’s Olympic event, Vegas has posted six top 20s in his last ten worldwide starts, including a pair of T-2 finishes. It only makes sense to play a bit of Vegas in Vegas this week!

KH Lee | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.8k

Odds: 125/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #47

Overall Model Rank: #38

Lee has posted a pair of top 15s in his last three starts and checks in with one of the best odds to salary ratios out of this price range. Going back to late-July and into August, Lee has routinely paid off these sort of salaries with ease. With a guaranteed four rounds to play, I’d be shocked if he doesn’t return 10x to 12x value at a minimum this week.

Others to Consider

High-Priced:

Justin Thomas | DK: $11.1k, FD: $11.9k | Cash & GPP

Rory McIlroy | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.1k | Cash & GPP

Tony Finau | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11k | Cash & GPP

Mid-Priced:

Jason Kokrak | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.4k | GPP Preferred

Kevin Na | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9k | GPP Only

Maverick McNealy | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.6k | GPP Preferred

Low-Priced/Punts:

Talor Gooch | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.8k | Cash & GPP

Mackenzie Hughes | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.6k | Cash & GPP

Rasmus Hojgaard | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.6k | GPP Only

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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