Top PGA DraftKings & FanDuel Plays - The CJ Cup ⛳️

Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!

The 2018 CJ Cup Preview ⛳️

Welcome back to the LineStar Weekly Drive! Last week Marc Leishman conquered the field at the CIMB Classic, going super low with a 26-under score as eight other players shot either 20 or 21-under par. This week the PGA Tour continues on to the second leg of their three week Asian swing for The CJ Cup held in South Korea. The field will once again be limited to 78 players and this will also be another no-cut event. We have a bit more star power in the mix as guys like Jason Day, Brooks Koepka and Hideki Matsuyama will compete alongside reigning CJ Cup champion, Justin Thomas. Keep in mind that this event will begin at 6:45 p.m. ET on Wednesday, so be sure to have your line-ups all sorted out by that time!

Golfers will be teeing up at The Club at Nine Bridges located on Jeju Island, South Korea. It is a Par 72 layout that checks in on the shorter side at just under 7,200 yards in length. This will be just the second year Nine Bridges plays host to the PGA Tour and The CJ Cup. On this course last year, Justin Thomas opened with a 9-under round of 63, which surprisingly happened to be the winning score (Thomas beat Leishman in a playoff). Windy conditions heavily influenced the difficulty of this course in 2017 when it played as the fourth hardest on Tour. The fairways here are quite wide and it features large bentgrass greens with moderate undulations. The course itself is built into the hillside of a volcano and if the conditions happen to get windy once again this year, expect scoring to be on the lower side.

Windy or not, I would be surprised if we get another complete birdie-fest like the one we saw last week and this also should be a course that doesn’t favor any one type of golfer. As I mentioned last week, with this being another no-cut event where everyone will be playing four rounds, a smart strategy in GPPs to avoid having a duplicated lineup would be to leave some salary on the table. For example, last week’s perfect lineup had $1,400 of spare salary on DraftKings and $2,100 on FanDuel. You likely don't need to leave that much salary out there but even a few hundred left over will drastically reduce your risk of a "duped" lineup! Now let’s get into the stats I’m keying in on and some picks for this week!

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 35%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%) | 30%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Par 5 BoB% | 10%

5. Proximity to the Hole | 10%

*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentages I put on each category.

High Priced Targets

Hideki Matsuyama (DK: $10.4k | FD: $11.6k)

Hideki closed out his 2018 season on an absolute tear, finishing inside the top 15 over his last five starts which also included two T4's. His irons and overall ball striking has been elite in that time span and his previously shaky putting has improved quite a bit (12th in field in putting average). He didn’t make an appearance at this event's debut in 2017 but I would be surprised if he doesn’t find plenty of success here by finishing inside the top ten. In this field, he ranks 2nd in SG: App, 24th in Proximity, 2nd in Par 4 Average, 27th in Par 5 BoB% and 5th in overall BoB%. Perhaps teeing up more on his side of the world will help his mental game in some way as well, who knows. Japan and its golf fans put a lot of pressure on their country's best golfer and sometimes it seems to visibly show with how he carries himself through some tournaments. But he’s a 14:1 favorite and makes for a nice pivot off of the other high priced guys like Thomas, Koepka and Day.

Paul Casey (DK: $9.9k | FD: $11.3k)

Casey is starting to come into the same sort of form that made him a perennial cash play almost every week for large stretches of the past couple of seasons. In three of his past four starts, he has finishes of 13th, 11th and 21st. Not that I’m weighing course history too heavily this week but I expect him to absolutely improve on his T19 finish that he placed at Nine Bridges in 2017. He ranks 7th in SG: App, 12th in Proximity, 42nd in in Par 4 Average (meh), 8th in Par 5 BoB% and 24th in BoB% and holds 20:1 odds.

Mid-Range Targets

Kyle Stanley (DK: $8.2k | FD: $9.5k)

Kyle Stanley has yet to really break through as a “big name” in the golf world but if his finish to the 2017-18 season and beginning of this season is any indication, he may be just on the cusp as he is playing some really steady tee-to-green golf lately. He has three top-15 finishes in his past four starts and finished T19 at this tournament last year. Stanley has a very reliable driver, as he hits 71.2% of fairways (5th in field) and should manage to avoid many of the hazards Nine Bridges has to offer. He checks in 21st in SG: App, 8th in Proximity, 9th in Par 4 Average, 24th in Par 5 BoB% and 22nd in BoB%. He has 50:1 odds and a third consecutive top-15 finish could very well be in the cards this week.

Kevin Na (DK: $8.1k | FD: $9.5k)

At $100 less than Stanley on DraftKings and the same price on FanDuel, I expect these two guys to perhaps be a mainstay in balanced lineup builds. Na is another player coming in with some very respectable form. He has top-25 finishes in four of his last five starts and his game sets up really nicely to have a great showing at The CJ Cup. He’s 22nd in SG: App, 8th in Proximity, 5th in Par 4 Average, 29th in Par 5 BoB%, and 9th in BoB%. He grades out 6th in my key stats model and he should absolutely look to improve on the 47th place finish he had on this course last year when he went in on far less superior form. Like Stanley, he also possesses 50:1 odds to win.

Low Priced Targets

Chez Reavie (DK: $7k | $8.3k)

Reavie has shown a bit of form in the past couple months with a T12 at the PGA Championship, T20 at The Northern Trust and back-to-back finishes of T43 and T33 over the last two weeks. Nothing that would inspire boatloads of confidence but statistically, he stands out among many others in this price range. He’s 11th in SG: App, 1st in Proximity, 5th in Par 4 Average and 31st in BoB% while falling towards the back end of the field ranking 63rd in Par 5 BoB%. I’ll give him a pass on the Par 5 scoring, as everything else in his game should result in at least moderate success relative to the field on this course’s Par 5 holes. He had a T15 finish here last season and if he just sniffs the top-25, that would be excellent value at his salary. He’s a 125:1 long shot to win but you won’t find many with better odds than that on this lower end of salaries.

Nick Watney (DK: $6.9k | FD: $8.1k)

Watney is another 125:1 favorite and is coming off of a nice week at the CIMB Classic, finishing T19 on his way to notching 24 birdies and two eagles. His extended stats aren’t exactly inspiring as he is 38th in SG: App, 13th in Proximity, 19th in Par 4 Average, 58th in Par 5 BoB% and 38th in BoB%. However, the fact that he finished inside the top ten in birdies made last week bodes well for this event, despite it’s expected increase in difficulty from Kuala Lumpur. And like Reavie, at these salaries, you don’t need Watney to do much in order for him to pay off value.

Quick Hits - Others to Consider

High Priced

- Justin Thomas (DK: $11.6k | FD: $13.1k) | Just another week where Thomas is an overwhelming favorite at 5.5:1 on a course he is the defending champ on. Didn’t exactly play his best golf last week and still carded a fifth place finish.

- Marc Leishman (DK: $10.2k | FD: $11.7k) | This isn’t predicated on the fact that he won last week but more so the fact that the Aussie is an excellent wind player which, as eluded to in the course preview section, could come in handy this week. The nice form is just an added bonus. Also, finished runner-up here last year.

Mid Priced

- Louis Oosthuizen (DK: $8.6k | FD: $10.6k) | You never truly know what to expect from Oosty but his 28:1 odds to win stand out in a pretty big way among others priced around him and he looked really solid last week with 25 birdies (to just 3 bogeys, one DBB) on his way to a T5 finish.

- Joaquin Niemann (DK: $7.6k | FD: $9.9k) | Major mis-price especially on DK in my opinion. One missed cut (or technically one MDF) shouldn’t negate the fact that he is still 3rd in SG: App, 1st in SG: Ball Striking, 4th in SG: T2G and 2nd in GIR over the last 50 rounds.

Low Priced

- Stewart Cink (DK: $7k | FD: $8.9k) | I feel like I write in depth too much on Cink, so I just decided to add him to the quick hits section. Pulled in a strong T13 result last week, marking his sixth top-25 in his past nine starts. Should set up as a nice value option once again.

- Andrew Putnam (DK: $6.7k | FD: $7.7k) | Not an exciting play but his 4.00 Par 4 Average ranks 9th in the field and his 5th ranked bogey avoidance may come in handy on a more difficult course where the scoring average was 73.19 a year ago.

Congratulations to last week's PGA freeroll winners!

  • 1st: Benredbarchetta2112 - 683 points

  • 2nd: GGHOSTMANH - 667.5 points

  • 3rd: Timberland601 - 666 points

We’ll be hosting a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings so remember to join!

  • 1st place: $10 via PayPal

  • 2nd-3rd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt or mug

  • BONUS - If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That'll wrap it up for this week! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck out there guys!