By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour stays in Sin City for the second week in a row as the majority of the world’s best golfers are on site to tee off at the 2020 CJ Cup at Shadow Creek Golf Course. Normally this event would be hosted in South Korea but coronavirus restrictions have moved this tournament to Vegas. This will be a no-cut event with a small, but talented field. Of the 78 players in attendance, 54 golfers rank inside the top 100 of the Official World Golf Rankings. Dustin Johnson and Tony Finau are two notable names who have been forced to withdraw from The CJ Cup due to positive COVID-19 tests. 

The Course Preview ⛳

Shadow Creek GC is a Par 72 setup (four Par 5s, four Par 4s) which extends a bit over 7,500 yards. Similar to TPC Summerlin last week, which is of course also in Las Vegas, Shadow Creek GC sits at an elevation of roughly 2,000 feet, so a bit of that course length is diminished as a result. This will be the first PGA event held at this venue, so course history is basically non-existent. In the initial 2018 version of “Tiger vs. Phil,” this is actually the course they played at but I don’t believe we can really gain any valuable knowledge from that since everything will be set up much differently. When watching this tournament on TV, if you knew nothing about this course, you would be surprised that it is in Las Vegas because it doesn’t have a “desert golf” aesthetic to it whatsoever. A couple popular comparable courses to Shadow Creek which many golf enthusiasts are throwing around is Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo Championship) and Augusta National GC (The Masters). Since The Masters is just a few weeks away, I’ll definitely be making a mental note of guys who do well on this course.

Golfers will be hitting their tee shots down at some heavily tree-lined fairways, which are moderate in width and surrounded by 3-4” rough. Around 70+ bunkers will be in play as well as eight water hazards. On approach, players will be aiming at small Bentgrass greens which should run about 11 or 12 on the stimpmeter (moderately fast). Many of these greens are elevated from the fairway and feature multiple tiers which will carry plenty of slope and undulation. Without any course history to fall back on, we should probably keep the approach pretty simple and straightforward in relation to a Par 72 Carolina-style course. We need to find efficient ball strikers who have sharp irons, a high birdie or better percentage, and routinely shoot low on Par 5s. Guys will get an extra bump from me if they are quality putters on Bentgrass greens. I will also highlight certain guys who tend to excel in no-cut events. Let’s get into it!

Weather ⛅

As usual with no-cut events, weather isn’t a much of a worry. Barring a withdrawal or disqualification, everyone teeing up this week is cashing a check and playing all four rounds. Smaller fields like this one will also have tee times which are more closely grouped together. Still, it’s worth it to at least be aware of potential weather issues and impacts. Just like last week, golfers will be playing in sunny, arid desert conditions. Thursday will bring sustained winds close to 15 mph, but as of now it would seem that affect AM and PM waves fairly evenly. Aside from that, the weather should be very cooperative this week. Things can always change between now and Thursday morning, so be sure to run a final forecast check on Wednesday night (forecast page linked to the image below).

CJ Cup Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: OTT + SG: App) | 35%

> Emphasis on SG: Approach | 10%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 30%

3. Par 5 Average | 15%

4. Strokes Gained: Putting - Bentgrass Greens | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Justin Thomas | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 12/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks*: 1st SG: BS | 1st SG: App | 1st BoB% | 5th P5 AVG | 62nd SG: P (Bent)

*Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field in any given week.

JT is the unquestioned “no-cut event king” within this field. He has competed in 21 no-cut events in the last three years and has come away with 14 top 10s and an astounding six wins while finishing outside the top 25 just once. We haven’t seen Thomas in competition since the U.S. Open a month ago when he snagged a T8 finish so we should assume the form is solid heading into Sin City. As you’ll notice in the key stats, he smashes everywhere except for his putting splits on Bentgrass greens. Putting is the most volatile aspect of a golfer’s game, so if he can just be average or just above average on the greens this week, another top 10 is easily within reach with the way his overall tee to green game stands out.

Collin Morikawa | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 25/1 | CMR: #18 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 2nd SG: BS | 2nd SG: App | 16th BoB% | 7th P5 AVG | 39th SG: P (Bent)

When you’re spending this kind of salary on a golfer, it is tough to trust a guy coming off of back-to-back missed cuts. Of course there is no cut to worry about this week, and Morkiawa missed the cut at his previous two events (Shriners & U.S. Open) by one stroke each, so it isn’t like he had complete meltdowns. Morikawa’s ball striking and iron play is going to rank near the top of the field basically every week but the main thing that has plagued him through his brief career is an inconsistent putter. Fortunately, Bentgrass greens have provided Morikawa with his best putting splits and he is right around field average in SG: P (Bent) this week. Similar to JT, an average putter paired with an exceptional tee to green game can still be enough to push for a top 10 or even a win. I believe we get a solid little discount on the No. 6 ranked player in the world here. 

Mid-Priced Targets

Sungjae Im | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #8 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 29th SG: BS | 48th SG: App | 13th BoB% | 13th P5 AVG | 20th SG: P (Bent)

Sungjae Im’s +9.21 strokes gained tee to green last week ranked third in the field. He cruised his way to a solid T13 finish and shot all four rounds in the 60s. Im’s ball striking and tee to green performances have been pretty erratic since the 2019-20 season restart back in June. However, if last week’s performance is an indication of Im’s elite ball striking returning to form, then I’ll definitely want some DFS stock in him this week.

Joaquin Niemann | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #15 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 11th SG: BS | 5th SG: App | 27th BoB% | 41st P5 AVG | 44th SG: P (Bent)

Niemann’s 40/1 odds to win absolutely do not fit these sort of lower mid-range salaries and he is going to be one of the better “Vegas values” heading into this tournament. Even at 21-years-old, he has already proven he can win at the PGA level (2019 Greenbrier) and his game is beginning to trend up over the last month and a half-- highlighted by a T3 at the BMW Championship and a T13 at last week's Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. Niemann struggles to really “piece it all together” many weeks, but he has all the tools to be a top tier PGA talent. If he brings a solid driver, sharp irons, and an above average putter to Vegas, he has “top 10 potential” written all over him.

Low-Priced Targets

Si Woo Kim | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #37 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 55th SG: BS | 50th SG: App | 35th BoB% | 71st P5 AVG | 60th SG: P (Bent)

Si Woo is another golfer whose prices just seem a bit too low compared to how he’s been playing. Going back through Si Woo’s last 13 events (dating back to the Travelers Championship), he has just one missed cut and has landed five top 20 finishes -- most recently a T8 last week which was highlighted by a Saturday round of 63. Kim’s numbers on paper are ugly but he is the sort of golfer who can go on extended birdie runs. He’ll have an excellent shot at returning value at these salaries… or he could completely bomb, which is the risk you take with the always unpredictable SI Woo Kim.

Sebastian Munoz | DK: $7k, FD: $8k

Odds: 125/1 | CMR: #12 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 34th SG: BS | 33rd SG: App | 18th BoB% | 29th P5 AVG | 34th SG: P (Bent)

Munoz’s last six starts have resulted in finishes of T27, T23, T59, T7, T8, and T18. Aside from that T59, which came against a stacked U.S. Open field, I believe we’d take a similar finish to his other recent five events this week at these prices. Munoz is simply in very solid form right now and he does everything “good" but maybe not "great” in relation to the key stats. He ranked 16th in SG: T2G last week (+5.21 strokes gained) and would have pushed for a top 10 if he had a bit more luck with the putter (-1.25 SG: P). Munoz is pretty comfortably my top rated golfer among anyone priced at or below the $7,000 (DK) or $8,000 (FD) ranges.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Xander Schauffele | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 14/1 | CMR: #3 | Cash & GPP

Schauffele enters the week off of back-to-back top five finishes and hasn’t landed a result worse than 25th in his last nine starts. He excels in no-cut events, with 11 top 10s and two wins in his last 23 no-cut tournaments. X will rarely burn you and has been one of the safest PGA DFS investments for quite a while now.

Matthew Wolff | DK: $10k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 20/1 | CMR: #10 | Cash & GPP

Wolff’s game is improving at an alarming rate and he just narrowly missed out on another PGA victory last week after losing in a playoff. Despite the lofty salaries, he should definitely continue to land on your radar this week.

Daniel Berger | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #6 | GPP Preferred

Berger isn’t quite the auto-play he was for much of the post-restart stretch of last season but he’s only three events removed from a stretch where he finished top 10 in 7-of-9 events. He can get hot quickly and may end up being a decent high-end value.

Louis Oosthuizen | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #30 | Cash & GPP

Oosty has five top 25s in his last six events. Even though we’ll want a little more out of him at these salaries (20th most expensive player on DK, 19th on FD), it’s nice that we can feel good about a 25th place result to be around his floor. Any golfer can obviously regress at any time, but Oosty is looking like a solid target in all formats this week.

Russell Henley | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #22 | GPP Preferred

Henley’s approach game (3rd in SG: App) and overall ball striking (18th in SG: BS) is excellent, especially for these prices, but his putting has been highly unpredictable (66th in SG: P - Bent). He’ll be a GPP preferred target for me but a good week on the greens should yield major value.

Cameron Champ | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.7k

Odds: 125/1 | CMR: #48 | GPP Only

Definitely a “GPP Only” punt play but Champ’s booming driver (1st in Driving Distance) makes him an intriguing dart throw at these prices as sort of a ‘poor man’s Bryson DeChambeau’. Not in the best form at all but at least we don’t have to worry about him missing a cut this week.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Justin Thomas | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.7k

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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