By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

Much of the golf DFS world put its focus towards the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event which has already teed off today but, for the purposes of this week’s newsletter, we’ll keep our sights set on the alternative event which follows the typical four round stroke play format. This means we’re eyeing the Corales Punta Cana Resort & Club Championship which will be hosted by the Corales Golf Course down on the island of the Dominican Republic.

Due to the WGC-Match Play event going on, there clearly is not a ton of star power included into the mix of this alternative event. Within this 132-player field, only five of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers will be in attendance. There are still big time DFS contests posted for this event so it should certainly be worth giving this one a go, especially if you crack down on some research and learn a bit more about these lesser-known golfers. The strength of this field may be just above that of a Korn Ferry Tour event, but the rewards are legitimate. Golfers will be looking to grab a share of the 300 FedEx Cup points available in this event, along with a piece of the $3 million purse ($540,000 to first) and, perhaps most importantly, full exemption on the PGA Tour through the 2023 season, which is awarded to the eventual winner. Also note that this event will follow the typical cut rule: the top 65 golfers (including ties) after the first two rounds will move on to play the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

Corales GC is a Par 72 setup that extends a bit over 7,600 yards and features four Par 3s and four Par 5s. The length is a little deceiving, as warm Caribbean temperatures will help carry the ball further off the tee. The fairways here are wide and situated between pretty light and not overly penalizing rough. There really isn’t any reason *not* to try to “bomb and gouge” this course. Golfers don’t need to be incredibly long off the tee if they want to succeed, but long and somewhat inaccurate drivers just aren’t punished as much here as they would be at other more stringent venues. Players will still need to contend with bunkers, palm trees, sand dunes, and a some water hazards but those course defenses shouldn’t be too problematic in the grand scope of things. The greens at Corales GC feature paspalum grass, which is a very uncommon putting surface among PGA Tour courses. However, players have noted that these greens play very soft and can be super receptive, even at long approach distances or on shots coming out of the rough. The greens should be set up to run fairly slow once again this year (about 10-11 on the stimpmeter).

Overall, this shouldn’t be a very difficult course, especially if the winds (which is the primary course defense) cooperate. Without ShotLink data or extensive course history, my approach will be fairly simple and straightforward this week. I’m going to be looking for quality ball strikers in good form who make plenty of birdies, particularly on Par 5s, as well as guys who possess reliable putters, as this tournament could easily turn into a birdie-fest. I will also be adding a slight favoritism to some of the longer hitters but I won’t rule a non-bomber out if he excels in other areas. Graeme McDowell won here a couple of years ago, so clearly you don’t have to be a bomber to succeed here considering he only averages about 285 yards per drive. In the three years since this tournament joined the PGA circuit, the winning score has been 18-under par each time. Unless the winds really start kicking up (which is a definite possibility), that’s roughly the same sort of score we should expect from the eventual winner once again. Now, let’s get a look at the weather, some key stats to focus on, and some potential targets for the week!

Weather ⛅

Windy conditions are definitely looking like they will be in play this week. Much of this tournament seems like it will be played in 15+ mph sustained winds with gusts cracking into the 20 mph range. Considering how this course is set up, I wouldn’t expect these winds to drastically impact play off of the tee. But golfers will definitely need to adjust how they play their approach shots. Other than that, there is a slight chance we could see rain pop up briefly a couple of times throughout the week but it’s nothing to worry over. Plenty of sunshine is on tap with pleasant island temperatures in the high 70s/low 80s.

Verdict: No wave advantage since both groups will experience similar conditions over the first two rounds. Check the most up-to-date forecast by clicking on the image below.

Corales Championship Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Par 5 Average | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Putting | 15%

5. Driving Distance | 10%

Note: Many EURO Tour and Korn Ferry Tour golfers make up this field and about 48 of the players do not currently qualify for PGA stats. That will be something to keep in mind when digging into the numbers this week. You may have to check into the EURO and KFT stats pages to get an idea of where these guys stand on paper but don't stress *too* much about doing that.

High-Priced Targets

Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field for any given week.

CMR = Custom Model Rank; a player’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above *as well as* things like course history, recent form, and recent average fantasy scoring outputs.

Charley Hoffman | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 18/1 | CMR: #2 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 3rd SG: BS | 2nd BoB% | 32nd P5 AVG | 17th SG: Putt | 12th Driving Dist.

Hoffman is one of the few names in the field that even casual golf fans would probably recognize. But he isn’t priced among the top of the board for name recognition -- he has actually been playing well in some legitimately difficult PGA events. He enters in with four consecutive made cuts, highlighted by a T7 at Pebble Beach, T10 at the API, and most recently a T17 at The PLAYERS Championship a couple of weeks back. The field strength on those events, particularly the latter two, were leagues above the overall talent level this week. As a result, Hoffman currently sits as the odds on favorite (tied with Thomas Pieters) to win this tournament. That provides a nice little boost to his Vegas value over on DraftKings, where he is the 4th most expensive option. He’ll probably be the first guy I’d look to target in the $10k+ (DK) and $11k+ (FD) ranges. His elite ball striking (relative to the field) should carry him to a strong week down in the Dominican Republic. Finished 14th here last year.

Nate Lashley | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.9k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #8 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 49th SG: BS | 39th BoB% | 20th P5 AVG | 29th SG: Putt | 47th Driving Dist.

By my count, there are only about 20 golfers in this field who have competed in this tournament all three years since it was added to the PGA Tour rotation in 2018 (though it was a seasonal Korn Ferry Tour event prior to that). Lashley is one of those golfers. He did miss the cut here in 2019, but he bookends that with a solid T28 in 2018 and a very strong 4th place finish last season. He comes into this week averaging the 2nd most fantasy points in the field over the last five starts and at last week’s Honda Classic he ranked 11th in the field over the weekend in strokes gained on approach.

FanDuel Note: Charles Howell III is only $9,900 (19th most expensive golfer) but has the 4th best odds to win. That is pretty clearly a misprice and CH3 should be someone to target in FanDuel DFS lineups. I don’t dislike him on DraftKings ($10,000 - 5th most expensive golfer), but he obviously doesn’t offer up the same kind of value there.

Mid-Priced Targets

Justin Suh | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.6k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 1st SG: BS | 1st BoB% | 1st P5 AVG | 1st SG: Putt | 37th Driving Dist.

Suh is the top rated golfer in my model for this week and you only have to look at his key stat rankings to understand why. However, on top of that, he is averaging the most fantasy points in the field over the last five starts and he has made four of his last five cuts on the PGA Tour. One of those cuts includes this same event, which was played not all that long ago back in September of 2020, which had Suh coming away with a T14 finish. As previously noted, many golfers this week do not have enough recent rounds played on the PGA Tour which are needed to qualify for strokes gained data. While he does technically qualify, someone like Suh certainly doesn’t have a ton of measured rounds to his name (just seven measured rounds this season) and stats should be taken much more lightly this week. But if you’re looking for a trendy golfer who has flashed a really impressive approach game while also posting a strong finish at this same tournament just six months ago, then Suh is absolutely someone you should consider in these price ranges.

Chase Seiffert | DK: $8k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #5 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 11th SG: BS | 22nd BoB% | 47th P5 AVG | 30th SG: Putt | 57th Driving Dist.

Seiffert has made four of his last five cuts on the PGA Tour and is third in the field in fantasy points per start (over the last five). He has landed three top 15 finishes in that stretch -- most recently a T3 finish at last week’s Honda Classic, in which he ranked 2nd in the field in strokes gained on approach and shot a Sunday best round of 64. If those irons stay hot, expect another strong result this week. In his Corales debut last year he finished 41st.

Low-Priced Targets

Kelly Kraft | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #38 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 14th SG: BS | 56th BoB% | 62nd P5 AVG | 51st SG: Putt | 69th Driving Dist.

I’m not sure if you can award certified “course horse” status to anyone when the tournament in question has only been on the PGA Tour circuit for three years. But if anyone is deserving of that title for this particular event, it’s probably Kelly Kraft. He has played the Corales Championship in each of the past three years and has recorded finishes of T14 (2020), T5 (2019), and T3 (2018) -- good for an average finish of 7th place. Now, he doesn’t rock the key stats and he has missed three consecutive cuts. However, he stands out well in the most important stat this week (ball striking) and those three missed cuts have only been by one to two strokes, so it isn’t like he’s fully ejecting in the first two rounds. Given his salaries and course history, he’s definitely a guy to consider for GPPs. 

Ryan Brehm | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.2k

Odds: 125/1 | CMR: #7 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 46th SG: BS | 16th BoB% | 6th P5 AVG | 35th SG: Putt | 4th Driving Dist.

On the right course, Brehm is one of those golfers who doesn’t necessarily need a high finish in order to return dividends on his DFS salaries. He’s one of the longest hitters on Tour which already helps his birdie upside on this more wide open course that isn't going to require extensive precision off of the tee. That distance should also give him some eagle looks on these Par 5s and, as long as he makes the cut, he could easily score multiple eagles this week. He has finishes of 33rd and 35th in his two starts in this tournament and he’s probably a borderline cash viable play when it's all said and done.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Thomas Pieters | DK: $11.1k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 18/1 | CMR: #64 | Cash & GPP

His CMR is low only because of a lack of measured rounds on the PGA Tour (so he doesn’t register for any key stats). He has finished 13th-T15-T10 in his last three worldwide starts and is definitely deserving of the high price tag in this field. I slightly prefer Hoffman, but Pieters’ talent level is head and shoulders above the vast majority of the competition this week.

Emiliano Grillo | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.6k

Odds: 20/1 | CMR: #3 | Cash & GPP

Grillo shines in weaker fields and he has landed finishes of T11-T9-T3-T18 in his last four starts in alternate events. Came in at T21 at the Corales Championship six months ago. For these salaries, we need a bit more than that, but if there is a time for this great ball striker to breakthrough, it’d be in a week like this.

Brandon Wu | DK: $9.4k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 28/1 | CMR: #87 | GPP Preferred

(Non-PGA stats qualifier leads to the low CMR rank)

Wu wasn’t able to make the weekend at the Honda Classic but he was a top 10 machine on the Korn Ferry Tour and won the KFT Championship last August. His 4.47 birdies per round ranked 6th on the KFT last season so he can certainly pour ‘em in.

Lee Hodges | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #82 | Cash & GPP

(Non-PGA stats qualifier leads to the low CMR rank)

Another Korn Ferry Tour stud that will probably go overlooked just because he doesn’t have much name recognition or extensive PGA Tour data to back up this sort of price tag. Hodges has three straight top 15 worldwide finishes. He’s 5th on the KFT money list for the 2020-21 season and boasts six top 10s in 22 starts.

Taylor Pendrith | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #69 | GPP Preferred

(Non-PGA stats qualifier leads to the low CMR rank)

Might as well keep the trend going with another KFT stud. Across 84 rounds on the KFT, Pendrith is averaging 4.54 birdies/round which ranks him 4th on the Tour. He even played well enough with the big boys last September to earn an impressive T23 finish at the U.S. Open. Definitely, an intriguing guy to look out for.

Joel Dahmen | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #42 | GPP Preferred

Okay, now let’s get back to more familiar names. Dahmen is on a rough skid on the PGA Tour so maybe a weak alternative field event is just what the doctor ordered. He’s often a reliable guy to invest in for DFS purposes but it’s hard to back that up these days after missing six of his last seven cuts. However, he’s a better golfer than what he’s been showing. Dahmen has top 15 finishes in both of his starts at Corales so let’s see if he can punch in a 'get right' week.

Lucas Herbert | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #78 | Cash & GPP

(Non-PGA stats qualifier leads to the low CMR rank)

Herbert, at No. 72 in the world (OWGR.com), is actually the highest ranked golfer in this field so it is a little odd to see him priced this low. He has made the cut in five of his last seven worldwide starts and even landed a nice T31 at the U.S. Open. I would be pretty surprised if he misses the cut this week so I’m on board with him as a play in all formats.

Satoshi Kodaira | $6.8k, FD: $8.2k

Odds: 125/1 | CMR: #63 | GPP Preferred

The irons looked great last week when he ranked 6th in the field in strokes gained approach which helped lead to a decent T36 finish. That finish would have been much, much better if he didn’t lose -5.04 strokes around the green (ranked 2nd to last in the field). If Kodaira can repeat his performance with his irons without struggling *that* badly around the greens, he’ll almost certainly pay off these salaries.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

N/A

Most OAD leagues, mine included, have the WGC-Match Play event as the primary OAD tournament this week. For what it’s worth, I went with Collin Morikawa. Hopefully, I haven't cursed my guy Collin because my OAD picks have been pretty tragic lately.

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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