By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

The season’s first major is in the books and the PGA Tour now heads down to the Dominican Republic for the Corales Puntcana Resort & Club Championship which will be held at the Corales Golf Course. There clearly is not a ton of star power in the mix this week, as only nine of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers will be in attendance. There are still big time DFS contests posted for this event so it should certainly be worth giving this one a go, especially if you crack down on some research and learn a bit more about these lesser-known golfers. The strength of this field may be just above that of a Korn Ferry Tour event, but the rewards are legitimate. Golfers will be looking to grab some of the 500 FedEx Cup points available in this event, along with a piece of the $4 million purse ($720,000 to first), as well as full exemption on the PGA Tour through the 2022 season.

The Course Preview ⛳

Corales GC is a Par 72 setup that extends a bit over 7,600 yards and features four Par 3s and four Par 5s. The length is a little deceiving, as warm Caribbean temperatures will help carry the ball further off the tee. The fairways here are wide and situated between pretty light and not overly penalizing rough. There really isn’t any reason *not* to try to “bomb and gouge” this course. Golfers don’t need to be incredibly long off the tee if they want to succeed, but long and somewhat inaccurate drivers just aren’t punished as much here as they would be at other venues. Players will still need to contend with bunkers, palm trees, sand dunes, and a few water hazards but those course defenses shouldn’t be too problematic in general. The greens at Corales GC feature paspalum grass, which is a very uncommon putting surface among PGA Tour courses. However, in the brief history of this tournament, players have noted that these greens play very soft and can be super receptive, even at long approach distances or on shots coming out of the rough. They should be set up to run fairly slow once again this year (10-11 on the stimpmeter).

Overall, this shouldn’t be an overly difficult course, especially if the winds (one of the main course defenses) aren't too significant. Without ShotLink data or extensive course history, my approach will be fairly simple and straightforward this week. I’m going to be looking for quality ball strikers in good form who make plenty of birdies, particularly on Par 5s, as well as guys who possess reliable putters, as this tournament could easily turn into a birdie-fest. I will also be adding a slight favoritism to some of the longer hitters but I won’t rule a guy out if he excels in other areas. Graeme McDowell won here last season, so clearly you don’t have to be a bomber to succeed considering he only averages about 285 yards per drive. I believe we should expect to see a winning score in the -18 to -22 range. Now, let’s get a look at the weather, some key stats to focus on, and some potential targets for the week!

Weather ⛅

It would seem that golfers will see pretty steady sustained winds around 10 mph for much of this tournament. Not a whole lot of fluctuation or significant gusts. No real wave advantage sticks out right now but try to run a final forecast check on Wednesday night in case anything changes. The forecast page will be linked to the image below.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking | 30%

2. Birdie or Better % | 25%

3. Par 5 Average | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Putting | 15%

5. Driving Distance | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Mackenzie Hughes | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.5k

Vegas: 16/1 | Custom Model Rank: #17 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks*: 84th SG: BS | 54th BoB% | 75th P5 AVG | 4th SG: Putt | 29th Driving Dist.

*Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field in any given week.

Hughes returns to Corales GC where he finished runner-up in 2019. His ten results leading up to that tournament were: MC, MC, MC, T77, T29, MC, MC, MC, MC, T13. He has shown some of the best form of his career, particularly in the recent 2019-20 PGA FedEx Cup Playoffs. His ten most recent results, in chronological order, entering this week were: T70, T3, T48, T6, T44, T58, T13, T10, T7, MC. Hughes’ clearly has much better form entering this tournament this year and his most recent result, a missed cut, obviously came from last week’s US Open where he missed the cutline by two strokes. Suffice it to say, Corales GC will play nowhere near as difficult as Winged Foot did. Hughes’ longterm ball striking doesn’t look great on paper but his irons have been picking up recently and the fact that he carries one of the best putters in the field is huge this week. We’re not usually used to paying these kind of prices for a player like Hughes, but he could be worth the investment in such a weak field. He was finishing ahead of truly some of the world’s bet golfers in his recent FEC playoff run.

Denny McCarthy | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.5k

Vegas: 33/1 | Custom Model Rank: #3 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 64th SG: BS | 3rd BoB% | 23rd P5 AVG | 1st SG: Putt | 55th Driving Dist.

It is a tad scary to give McCarthy the nod for cash games but the man has led the entire PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting the last two seasons. Putting is 100% the most volatile aspect of golf, and I very rarely weight it as a key stat, but this is a bit of a unique week with those paspalum grass greens in play, which many golfers may not be used to. DMC has finished 26th and 4th at Corales the last two years and he’s another guy whose ball striking has been trending in the right direction. His putter is routinely so dominant that he can easily contend for a win this week if he just stays slightly above the field in strokes gained ball striking.

Mid-Priced Targets

Adam Schenk | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.7k

Vegas: 40/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 18th SG: BS | 27th BoB% | 15th P5 AVG | 36th SG: Putt | 19th Driving Dist.

I’m tempted to categorize Schenk as a “cash preferred” play, since he has made seven cuts in a row leading into this event but only has one finish better than T30 in that stretch (T12 @ Barracuda Championship). But he’ll carry some solid odds into this week and has finishes of T33 and T33 here the last two seasons. We’re gonna want a little more than that out of him at these prices but, in an easy field, he’s capable of delivering a top 15 kinda result.

Will Gordon | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.4k

Vegas: 66/1 | Custom Model Rank: #8 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 7th SG: BS | 8th BoB% | 9th P5 AVG | 63rd SG: Putt | 7th Driving Dist.

Gordon definitely stands out as a bit mispriced, especially over on FanDuel where he is the 57th most expensive golfer yet he carries the 29th best odds to win. I also still love him for $7,600 on DK since he likely fits this course very well. I would think he should be more in the vicinity of $8,300 on DK, $9,500 on FD. Gordon is a young golfer who can absolutely overpower an easy course like Corales GC. While he doesn’t possess the sharpest overall irons, he is particularly solid from distance (2nd in Prox. 175-200 yds, 1st in Prox. 200+ yds) and hits a slew of greens in regulation (2nd in GIR). Gordon shouldn’t have too hard of a time landing it on these soft, receptive greens and his putter is decent enough. I really like his chances at a top 10 run this week.

Low-Priced Targets

Seamus Power | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.2k

Vegas: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #9 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 51st SG: BS | 1st BoB% | 3rd P5 AVG | 38th SG: Putt | 13th Driving Dist.

Power is the one of the statistical standouts when it comes to the value range this week. He has course experience, finishing T44 and T5 at Corales GC the last two years. If you check the key stat ranks, he obviously knocks in a ton of birdies and can bomb it down the fairway routinely over 300 yards. He does have two missed cuts over his last five events. But in the three starts where he made it to the weekend, he has landed finishes of T12, T9, and T27. Given his relative success here the last two years, I think we can trust him as a fringe cash play and an elite tournament play.

Ryan Brehm | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.2k

Vegas: 150/1 | Custom Model Rank: #35 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 33rd SG: BS | 38th BoB% | 19th P5 AVG | 89th SG: Putt | 1st Driving Dist.

It gets pretty sticky if you dip too far down the salary hierarchy but Brehm could be a (very) poor man’s version of Bryson DeChambeau this week. He leads the field in average driving distance and routinely blasts it 330+ yards off the tee. With the wide fairways and four Par 5s at his disposal, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him make it into the weekend while shooting a couple rounds in the mid-60s along the way. The putter is erratic and untrustworthy, so he’s a GPP-only play for me, but he may very well pay off these low salaries. Brehm finished T35 at Corales in 2018.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Will Zalatoris | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.8k

Vegas: 12/1 | CMR: #44 | GPP Preferred

Some people may be looking at PGA DFS pricing this week and wondering who the hell this Zalatoris kid is. He’s a 24 y/o guy who has been dominating the Korn Ferry Tour and just held his own against the world’s best, en route to a T6 at last week’s US Open. I’m really split on whether to play him or fade him, but I’m assuming he’ll be relatively highly owned. I believe I will have some exposure, just in case he does cash in on his 12/1 odds, but I’ll likely be underweight compared to the field.

Sam Burns | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.6k

Vegas: 20/1 | CMR: #1 | Cash & GPP

Burns has been in really solid form, he hits it a mile, has a great putter, and finished T12 here last season. I’ve got no issues spending up on him here and I’ll be taking him in my One & Done league this week.

Kristoffer Ventura | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.6k

Vegas: 33/1 | CMR: #4 | GPP Preferred

Ventura finished off the 2019-20 season on the heels of five made cuts in his last six events -- four of those being top 21 results. He’s a guy that relies on a long driver (12th in Driv. Dist.) and an elite putter (2nd in SG: Putt), but hey… that’s the kinda guy I’m targeting at Corales.

Matthias Schwab | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10k

Vegas: 40/1 | CMR: #89 | GPP Preferred

Schwab is way down in the CMR rankings because he doesn’t qualify for PGA stats just yet. But he’s a guy I’ve been trying to ‘get right’ in PGA DFS because his finishes and metrics over on the Euro Tour are extremely impressive. In a similar recent event with a weak field (Barracuda Championship), Schwab landed a T3 finish.

Joohyung Kim | DK: $8.2k, FD: $7k

Vegas: 55/1 | CMR: #89 | FanDuel Preferred

I’m really not too familiar with this golfer but noticed he was massively mispriced on FanDuel at the minimum $7k when he carries 55/1 odds to win (25th best odds). Looking at his results on OWGR.com, he has a many, many wins and other top five finishes across multiple Asian golf tours. He’s obviously a 55/1 favorite to win for a reason and he did at least make the cut at the Safeway Open a couple weeks back.

Akshay Bhatia | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.2k

Vegas: 100/1 | CMR: #94 | GPP Only

Bhatia missed all seven cuts on the PGA Tour last season but opened this one up with a bang, as he cashed in a T9 result at the Safeway Open. I’m hearing a good bit of buzz on this guy and if he can keep that momentum rolling into Corales, he might not be the worst guy to punt in a GPP lineup.

My One and Done Pick

Sam Burns

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That will do it for our Corales Puntacana Resort & Spa Championship preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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