Top PGA DraftKings & FanDuel Plays | The Desert Classic ⛳️

Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions! 

The 2019 Desert Classic ⛳️

We’re back with some more golf coverage after fan favorite Matt Kuchar took down the Sony Open this past week -- making it look easy start to finish. The PGA Tour now travels from Hawaii out to sunny La Quinta, California where we’ll get to see a bit of a unique Pro-Am event that features a three course rotation and a 54-hole cut on Saturday. This will be a full field event of 156 players headlined by world No. 1 Justin Rose and defending champion and ranked No. 7 in the world, Jon Rahm. All-in-all, this isn’t a super stacked field but in total 13 of the world’s top-60 golfers will be teeing it up.

The three courses, Stadium Course (SC), Nicklaus Tournament Course (NC), and La Quinta CC (LQ), are all shorter Par 72 tracks that range between 7,060 and 7,159 yards in length and feature bentgrass greens. The Stadium Course is the hardest of the three (by significant margin) and is where the final round will also take place on Sunday for all golfers making the 54-hole cut. Traditionally, players who start off playing on the SC are at a disadvantage and only two golfers who finished in the top-20 last year began at the SC. A strategy I’ll be looking to find an advantage in is to target players who tee off on Saturday at the SC. They’ll be able to get the two easier courses played on Thursday/Friday and hopefully have momentum and a comfortable cushion inside the cutline on Saturday. Those golfers will also get a chance to play the SC in back-to-back rounds which could provide a mental edge. I’ll place a link below to the tee times. Be sure to sort by round to see what golfers play a particular course each day. Also, be prepared for some frustration as live player scoring may be a bit delayed for this event. The Stadium Course is the only one with ShotLink data (and live ShotTracker) and with the amateurs in the field slowing down the pace of play, you’ll be left in the dark on many of these guys’ rounds for a bit. TV coverage will likely be focused mostly on the SC as well. By Saturday's end, we can expect the cutline to fall in the 6-under range and the winning score to be 20-under or better. With the multi-course rotation, I’ll be sticking to a pretty straightforward approach with my key stats. Now let’s get into the weather, those stats I’ll be looking to highlight, and the guys I’m liking to find success this week!

Weather ⛅

These California temperatures won’t be much of an issue as the field will enjoy temps in the 60s for much of their time out there and any chance of rain is pretty much nil. The winds may be a bit of a different story. It appears that the highest winds will be impacting golfers the most on the opening Thursday round, particularly in the afternoon where sustained winds will reach into the teens with gusts hitting the low to mid 20mph range. This makes me even less of a fan of golfers who will begin their tournament on the Stadium Course. Winds on Friday and Saturday look to be manageable throughout each day. However, as usual, this is being written on Tuesday afternoon so be sure to check the most up-to-date forecasts as we get closer to lock.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%) | 25%

3. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 25%

4. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) | 15%

5. Bogey Avoidance | 5%

*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentages I put on each category.

High-Priced Targets

Justin Rose (DK: $11k | FD: $12.1k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Predicted Saturday Stadium Course Advantage: YES

First off, you’ll noticed I’m making note of golfers who are playing the two easiest courses through the first two rounds and pull a Saturday tee time on the Stadium Course. This will be Rose’s first appearance at this event and first real tournament of the season but it’s hard to put the top ranked golfer in the world at any major disadvantage. He’s finished 4th or better in his last four starts and brings in all the right tools to dominate this field. He’s 14th in SG: OTT, 18th in SG: App, 2nd in P4 AVG, 3rd in BoB% and 9th in Bogey Avoidance. Rose has traditionally been a great golfer on the California swing for years and there’s not much reason to doubt him this week. Taking him in cash may spread your salary for other golfers too thin but I’ll have my shares in tournaments. He’ll check in with the second best odds of 9:1 behind defending champ Jon Rahm (6:1).

Chez Reavie (DK: $9.2k | FD: $9.8k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Predicted Saturday Stadium Course Advantage: YES

I love starting off with Reavie when making balanced builds in all formats and his price on FanDuel is ultra appealing (10th highest priced golfer on DraftKings, 23rd on FanDuel). Given the overall quality of the field and recent form, I’m not scared off his DK price, however. Reavie punched in an impressive 3rd place finish at last week’s Sony Open and there’s plenty of positive correlation with golfers playing well in Hawaii when heading into this event. He also shines statistically and comes in at 2nd overall in my personal player model. He ranks 50th in SG: OTT, 3rd in SG: App, 14th in P4 AVG, 31st in BoB%, and 29th in Bogey Avoidance. Couple that with three consecutive cuts made here which includes two top-20 finishes and there’s plenty to like to go along with his 33:1 odds.

Mid-Priced Targets

Ryan Palmer (DK: $8.2k | FD: $10.2k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Predicted Saturday Stadium Course Advantage: YES

Palmer hasn’t competed in an event since early November but he had back-to-back top 10 finishes in his previous two starts. He’s also played this event very well over the last six years, missing just one cut and finishing 20th or better in all five other appearances, which includes a runner-up result in 2014 and a 6th place finish in 2013. He’s maybe not the sexiest name or most exciting player but his consistency should carry over well this week and I love that he gets to wait until Saturday to tackle the Stadium Course. Palmer checks in at 63rd in SG: OTT, 19th in SG: App, 11th in P4 AVG, 10th in BoB% and 73rd in Bogey Avoidance. He’s 3rd in my player model and will likely find his way into my own cash lineup as well.

Richy Werenski ($7.6k | FD: $9.6k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Predicted Saturday Stadium Course Advantage: NO

Werenski is the first player I’m hitting on that doesn’t tee up on the Stadium Course on Saturday but he, at the very least, doesn’t open up Thursday there and instead plays the SC on Friday. He’s begun the 2018-2019 season making 5/5 cuts and showed some nice form his last two times out with a 15th place finish in The RSM Classic along with a 3rd place finish in the Mayakoba Golf Classic. Werenski has also carded a couple of strong results the last two years in this tournament with a 29th place finish here in 2018 and a 9th place finish in 2017. Statistically, he doesn’t pop off the page but a lot of the included data is from part of last season when his form wasn’t nearly as strong. He comes in 48th in SG: OTT, 66th in SG: App, 54th in P4 AVG, 51st in BoB% and 47th in Bogey Avoidance. He should be a candidate for all formats given his salaries on both sites and is 11th in my overall player model.

Low-Priced Targets

Ryan Armour (DK: $7.1k | FD: $8.2k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Predicted Saturday Stadium Course Advantage: YES

Before highlighting a candidate more in play for GPPs, I wanted to find a cheap golfer that qualifies for my hunch on having the Saturday Stadium Course advantage. Armour fits the bill well enough, as he is a perfect 6/6 cuts so far this season while coming in off a very respectable 22nd place finish last week at the Sony Open. He has missed the cut in this event in two of his last three starts but overall, he is 4/6 in career cuts made. If he carries his current momentum into this week, I believe he’ll fare well enough to, at the very least, bring you some solid cut equity. He’s 45th in SG: App, 22nd in P4 AVG, 54th in BoB% and 28th in Bogey Avoidance. Also of note is that he is one of the most consistent golfers when it comes to finding the fairways and his 74.2% driving accuracy ranks 1st in the field. Given the shorter length in all three of these Par 72 courses, all indications are that he should do enough to make the Sunday final round.

Grayson Murray (DK: $6.6k | FD: $7.7k)

Cash Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Predicted Saturday Stadium Course Advantage: NO

Murray is about as risky as it gets considering he withdrew just last week from the Sony Open with back issues that hindered him at the end of 2018 as well. However, if he doesn’t withdraw from the Desert Classic by Thursday morning then he must feel some confidence in his ability to give it a full go. You’re also not going to find anyone else in this price range that has two back-to-back top-15 finishes at this event like Murray has accomplished over the last two years (14th in 2018, 12th in 2017). So take a ton of caution with this pick and absolutely only stick him in GPP lineups. However, any finish even close to his past two trips here would clearly result in tremendous value.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced

- Patrick Cantlay (DK: $10.6k | FD: $11.3k) | Cash & GPP | 21/23 cuts made last season and is clearly the class of the field alongside Rose & Rahm. Doesn’t get the Stadium Course on Saturday but does avoid it for the opening round.

- Phil Mickelson (DK: $9.5k | DK: $10.6k) | GPP Only | Missed cut here last year and hasn’t played since “The Match” but prior three trips from 2015-17 he carded 21st, 3rd and 24th place finishes. Should be motivated to have a strong outing this go ‘round.

Mid-Priced

- Sungjai Im (DK: $8.1k | FD: $8.8k) | GPP Only | Big time birdie maker (ranks 2nd in field) making his debut appearance here. These short Par 72 set-ups could easily play into his type of game.

- Beau Hossler (DK: $8k | FD: $10.5k) | GPP Only | Far better value on DK. Hasn’t played since November but finished 20th here last year and draws the Stadium Course on Saturday.|

Low-Priced

- Harris English (DK: $7.2k | FD: $7.5k) | Cash & GPP | 6/6 cuts made here including an 11th place last year and comes in placing 22nd at last week's Sony Open. Seems viable in all formats to me!

- John Catlin (DK: $6.7k | FD: $7k) | GPP Only | Plays more on the EURO Tour but has PGA experience. He's another birdie making specialist who will be guaranteed three rounds of play at a cheap price. If he can get past the Stadium Course relatively unscathed on Thursday, he has a chance to pop off in the Friday & Saturday rounds.

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That will do it for our Desert Classic preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. I'll also be looking to start posting my favorite golf bets on Twitter on Wednesday evenings, so if anyone is interested in those be sure to give me a follow! Good luck this week!