By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour sets its sights on Torrey Pines Golf Club in San Diego, California for the Farmers Insurance Open. In many people’s minds, this is where ‘the road to The Masters’ often begins. This event typically hosts one of the stronger fields that you will see outside of Majors and WGC tournaments. Within the 156-player field, we have 13 of the world’s top 25 golfers on site this week as well as 46 of the top 100. Similar to last week, this will be a multi-course event with two courses in play. Across the first two rounds, golfers will play one round each on Torrey Pines South and Torrey Pines North before finishing the final two rounds on the South course. The traditional cut rule is also back in play, so the top 65 (plus ties) after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

As mentioned above, Torrey Pines GC features two Par 72 courses – Torrey Pines South & Torrey Pines North. Golfers will play each course through the first two rounds and the South Course will be the only one played over the final two rounds. The South course checks in as the longest track on Tour at a whopping 7,698 yards and played as the 7th most difficult course (out of 41) last year. The North course is nearly 450 yards shorter in length, stretching 7,258 yards, and plays much easier – last season it ranked as the 33rd most difficult course on Tour. Typically, the South course will play around three to four strokes more difficult than the North course. Renovations to the North course a couple years back did bolster it into a more difficult challenge, but there is still a stark difference in how tough both of these courses will play. For the first couple of days in single round formats, I would highly recommend stacking golfers playing only on the North course (though you’ll have to deal with no ShotLink/ShotTracker data and very little TV coverage for those golfers).

With three rounds being played on the South Course, that will be where I keep the majority of my focus this week for traditional four round DFS contest formats. Torrey Pines South features bunker-ridden narrow tree-lined fairways that are challenging to hit (average fairway accuracy is about 50%). The gnarly 2.5+” rough can be absolutely ruthless to hit out of as well. Given the extreme length, bombers can have a clear advantage here.. if they manage to mostly avoid the rough. Ten of the last 15 winners here have ranked inside the top 30 in driving distance. This shouldn’t completely rule out the shorter hitters at all but, on top of being very accurate off the tee, they’ll need to be excellent long iron players as well if they want to really compete and push for a top 10-25 finish. Honestly, golfers just need to profile as either really long or really accurate to succeed -- with decent irons and a reliable putter being the other ‘musts’. The smaller, multi-tiered poa annua greens are well protected and will provide one final challenge. Poa annua grass grows quite fast throughout the day, so golfers teeing up in the afternoon could experience bumpier and more unpredictable putting reads. Overall, the greens will typically run fast (~13 on the stimpmeter) and the back to front slopes will lead to a ton of fast putts. It can depend on overall weather conditions (more on that below) but the cutline often falls to around even par here and winning scores have been anywhere between 6-under and 21-under over the last five years. So, with all of that said, let’s jump into a look at the weather, some key stats, and some players I’m targeting this week at Torrey Pines!

Weather ⛅

The weather is something we’re 100% going to need to pay attention to leading up to first tee -- especially for the first two rounds where a wave advantage may absolutely develop. As you can see on the forecast image below, early Thursday wind conditions will be calm before picking up to 8-13 mph sustained winds with slightly stronger gusts. Rain moves in late Thursday night/early Friday morning and brings the strongest winds of the week with it. Sustained winds will hover around 20 mph throughout the day with gusts near 25 mph. Fortunately, as we look towards the weekend, conditions seem to be fairly calm. This will also be a pretty chilly event (by PGA standards) with temperatures rarely cracking 60 F.

Verdict: This forecast could very well change, but an AM/PM wave advantage could be on the table this week. I would be especially wary of guys playing in high winds on the South course on Friday. Those winds could make an already very tough course even more brutal to play.

Farmer Insurance Open Tee Times

*** STAY ON TOP OF THE WEATHER & RUN A FINAL FORECAST CHECK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ***

Click on the image below to be taken to the most up-to-date forecast page.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

4. Long Iron Accuracy (Proximity 175+ yards) | 15%

5. Driving Distance | 15%

6. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage | 5%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field for any given week.

CMR = Custom Model Rank; a player’s ranking in my model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, and recent fantasy scoring outputs.

Note: At the time of this writing, tee times have not been released. With a potential wave advantage to be had this week, I may be warmer or colder on these players by the time Thursday morning comes around.

Harris English | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 25/1 | CMR: #5 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 26th SG: BS | 7th BoB% | 1st Bog Avd. | 36th Long Iron Acc. | 70th Driv. Dist. | 14th P5 BoB%

I’m sorta skipping over the ultra elite high salary options and kicking things off with English, who checks in as the 6th most expensive golfer on both sites. English doesn’t exactly fit into the bomber category this week but he can routinely launch 300 yard drives and he’s quite accurate while doing it (24th in Driving Accuracy). On a very challenging course like Torrey Pines South, it’s also a major bonus that English leads the field in bogey avoidance. While his previous two starts here have been forgettable (T71 in 2020, MC in 2019), English had finished 8th, 14th, 31st, and 2nd (lost in playoff) in the four years prior and has made 7-of-8 cuts at this course in total. The current form is also top notch, as he has secured a finish of T6 or better in three of his last four starts with a win at the Sentry TOC. For more balanced builds, I wouldn’t hesitate to start my lineup with English as the anchor, especially for cash game builds.

Hideki Matsuyama | DK: $9.2k, FD: $11k

Odds: 25/1 | CMR: #6 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 8th SG: BS | 27th BoB% | 25th Bog Avd. | 32nd Long Iron Acc. | 50th Driv. Dist. | 16th P5 BoB%

It can be tough to land on the right “Hideki weeks” but his ball striking is consistent to the point that he is rarely going to truly burn you in DFS. He has just one missed cut in his last 13 starts and, aside from the MC, he has finished worse than T29 just once in that span. He also has a solid track record at Torrey Pines, with made cuts in 5-of-7 starts here highlighted by a 3rd place finish in 2019. The putter is usually the thing that holds him back but if he can get some decent rolls going on these poa annua greens, then don’t be surprised if he’s pushing for a podium finish on Sunday. 

Mid-Priced Targets

Ryan Palmer | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #4 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 20th SG: BS | 1st BoB% | 57th Bog Avd. | 40th Long Iron Acc. | 44th Driv. Dist. | 1st P5 BoB%

Pretty tough not to be on board with Palmer at these mid-range salaries. He is just one event removed from back-to-back 4th place finishes and his results at Torrey Pines over the last three years have been really strong: 21st, 13th, & 2nd. Course history correlates very strongly at Torrey Pines so you definitely want to favor golfers who tend to show up well on the leaderboard here over the years. Palmer simply knocks in a ton of birdies and he is especially deadly on the Par 5s, leading the field in P5 BoB%. At these price points, I believe we can trust him in all DFS formats. 

Will Zalatoris | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #17 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 1st SG: BS | 47th BoB% | 5th Bog Avd. | 77th Long Iron Acc. | 3rd Driv. Dist. | 19th P5 BoB%

Anyone who follows golf closely is aware that Zalatoris is one of the premiere young golfers on Tour to keep an eye on as he has a legitimate chance to break through into superstardom. We haven’t seen Zalatoris play competitively in nearly two months, which was a lackluster T52 at the Myakoba Golf Classic. He has also only competed at Torrey Pines once, back in 2018, which resulted in a missed cut. However, he has all the tools to make a run here evidenced by his elite ball striking and excellent distance off of the tee. Since being elevated from the Korn Ferry Tour last September, Zalatoris has notched top 10s in three of his six PGA starts. 

Low-Priced Targets

John Huh | DK: $7k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: #16 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 15th SG: BS | 10th BoB% | 2nd Bog Avd. | 110th Long Iron Acc. | 130th Driv. Dist. | 79th P5 BoB%

The main thing Huh is missing for this course is the distance, but that hasn’t stopped him from making 8-of-9 cuts at Torrey Pines throughout his career with a pair of top 10s to boot. The recent form is looking nice for Huh as well considering he has just one missed cut over his last eleven starts, which includes finishes of T21 or better in four of his last five. Huh is a strong putter on poa annua greens (ranks 7th in the field) and hits a ton of fairways (ranks 2nd in driving accuracy), so if he just keeps that up he can easily make up for his lack of distance. Love him as a value option, especially on DraftKings where he should probably be $300-$500 more expensive given his recent slew of top 25 finishes.

Ryan Brehm | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7k

Odds: 750/1 | CMR: #54 | GPP Only

Key Stat Ranks: SG: BS | BoB% | Bog Avd. | Long Iron Acc. | Driv. Dist. | P5 BoB%

If we’re channeling our inner Ray Guy and going for basically the biggest punt out there, well, Brehm might be our man. He actually has made his last four PGA cuts and he’s also made it into the weekend both times he’s played in this tournament (49th in 2020, 41st in 2017). What keeps Brehm in play (for GPPs) this week is his driver. He can routinely smash 320-330+ yard drives and will be one of the few guys who can reach the green on these four Par 5s at Torrey Pines South (which average 592 yards) in two shots. If he simply makes the cut he is likely returning you 10x value or better, so why not throw him in a couple of tournament lineups?

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Jon Rahm | DK: $11.3k, FD: $12.1k

Odds: 7/1 | CMR: 7/1 | GPP Preferred

You don’t often see a golfer carry 7/1 odds in a PGA Tour event but Rahm is pretty deserving. He’s one of the longest (19th in Driving Distance) and straightest (18th in Driving Accuracy) hitters in the world which, if you read the course preview, sets up very well at Torrey Pines. Also, no surprise he has made 4/4 cuts here highlighted by finishes of 2nd (2020), 5th (2019), and 1st (2017). Rory is right there with him, but Rahm is the man to beat this week.

Jason Day | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #32 | GPP Only

Day’s propensity to be affected by or bow out of tournaments mid-way through due to injuries will usually keep him as a GPP only target. But he has arguably the most success at Torrey Pines as anyone in this field, making him one of the top course horses of the week. Day has made 8-of-11 cuts here with five top 10s and a pair of wins (2015 & 2018). We haven’t seen him compete since November at the RSM Classic, but he did come away with a strong T12.

Adam Scott | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10k

Odds: 45/1 | CMR: #13 | Cash & GPP

Scott didn’t play a ton of golf in 2020 but he has made his last eight cuts and you get the feeling that he is due to break through in a big way soon. It may be a tad risky, but I’m on board with Scott in all formats this week and he did show his upside in his lone start at Torrey Pines in 2019 when he finished runner-up.

Gary Woodland | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #67 | GPP Preferred

Following a strong T16 at last week’s American Express tournament, Woodland is carrying some decent buzz heading into this week with people believing that injury (torn labrum) is behind him. I won’t put all my eggs in one basket based on one tournament, but if he is indeed “back” then he could be a steal at these DFS prices. When healthy, he is one of the most consistent golfers on Tour and he’s made 10-of-11 cuts at Torrey Pines.

Corey Conners | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #9 | Cash & GPP

While we haven’t seen him play yet this calendar year, Conners closed out 2020 on the heels of seven straight made cuts and five straight top 25 finishes, including three top 10s. Putting is always the main concern with him but he hits a ton of fairways (3rd in Driving Accuracy) and is an elite ball striker (7th in SG: BS). Finished 29th in his lone appearance at Torrey Pines in 2018.

JB Holmes | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.7k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: #64 | GPP Only

I’d say trust Holmes about as far as you can throw him because he’s shown us nothing in recent months to instill much confidence. But he did finish T16 here last year and had a run at Torrey Pines between 2015-2018 where he finished T6 or better three times. Hasn’t competed since early October so perhaps the long hiatus will have done him some good.

Will Gordon | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.5k

Odds: 300/1 | CMR: #33 | GPP Only

Another GPP only punt play but Gordon pops up surprisingly well in my model to be this cheap. This is likely due to his driving distance (ranks 14th) and elite long irons (ranks 1st in the field in proximity from 175+ yards). His ball striking isn’t too shabby (ranks 41st) and he finished 21st in this tournament a year ago. A definite sleeper to keep an eye on when building your GPP lineups.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Jon Rahm

Oof, really took one to the teeth last week with Scottie Scheffler not showing up and missing the cut by a stroke. Tough. Not even going to mess around this week. I'm just going to roll with Rahm and hope that his withdrawal from last week's tournament (due to a minor tweak from working out) was only precautionary and not anything to worry about this week.

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options that you still have available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the 2020-21 season.

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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