Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!

The 2019 Farmers Insurance Open ⛳️

The Player Field & Tournament Course Preview

Welcome back to another edition of the LineStar Weekly Drive! Golf really is a wild sport sometimes. Last week we saw a 500:1 “long” shot, Adam Long, fight off Phil Mickelson and other accomplished PGA veterans to win the Desert Classic. He was virtually unowned in DFS and that victory essentially doubled his six year career earnings. Quite the story!

This week, however, you can pretty much count on the man to take the podium to already have plenty of trophies on his mantle back at home because the big boys are here in droves. The Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines Golf Club is the event that many consider to signify the start of the PGA season and where the road to The Masters truly begins. Also, Tiger Woods is making his first start of the year so you know it’s a big deal. You’ll be hard-pressed to find another non-Major or WGC event that is as stacked as this one. This 156 player field boasts 12 of the top 20 and 24 of the top 50 ranked golfers in the world. Similar to last week, this will be a multi-course event, though with just two courses in play instead of three. We'll also revert back to the traditional cut rules with it coming after the second round with the top 70 (plus ties) moving on to play the weekend.

Torrey Pines GC, located in San Diego, California, features two Par 72 courses -- Torrey Pines South & Torrey Pines North. Golfers will play on each course through the first two rounds and the South course will be the only one played over the final two rounds. The South course checks in as the longest on Tour at a whopping 7,698 yards and played as the eighth most difficult course (out of 51) last year. The North course is nearly 450 yards shorter in length, stretching 7,258 yards and can be considered the “easier” course, though it’s no cake walk as it rated out in the middle of the road in terms of difficulty last year (28th out of 51). With three rounds being played on the South course, that will be where we keep the majority of our focus this week. The fairways are tough to hit (average of about 51%) and the greens are small. Given the extreme length, bombers (guys who are long off the tee) have a clear-cut advantage here, as nine of the last 13 winners here have ranked inside the top 25 in driving distance. This shouldn’t completely rule out the shorter hitters but they’ll need to be excellent long iron players if they want to compete. Scoring won’t come easy, so bogey avoidance will be about as important as birdie or better percentage. We can expect the cut line to fall at even par or one-under par, as has been the case the last four years. So, with all that said, let’s jump into a look at the weather, some key stats, and the players I’m targeting this week at Torrey Pines!

Video: Torrey Pines South Course Fly-Over

Weather ⛅

I can keep this section fairly short and to the point. The way the current forecast sets up, it looks like we’re in store for another nice week of California weather. Temperatures will stay in the 60's for most of this tournament and the winds should not be much of a factor as golfers should see single-digit speeds with no real threat of major gusts. Though, as I always mention, this is being written on Tuesday so be sure to check the latest forecasts as the tournament gets closer to teeing off.

One thing I will note is that the South course features poa annua greens (North course has bentgrass greens). Poa annua is more difficult to putt on in the afternoon, as the surface can get bumpy the longer it is exposed to sunlight. This would be very “ticky tacky” and maybe a tidbit you can reserve for the single round showdown slates, but you could give a slight edge to the guys who draw tee times on the South course in the mornings.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: BS) | 35%

2. Driving Distance | 20%

3. Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%) | 15%

4. Long Iron Accuracy - 175+ Yards | 10%

5. Par 5 Average (P5 AVG) | 10%

6. Bogey Avoidance | 10%

*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentages I put on each category.

High-Priced Targets

Jason Day (DK: $10.1k |FD: $11.3k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Day strolls into this week as the defending 2018 Farmers Insurance Open champion. He did miss the cut here two years in a row in 2016 & 2017 but in the three years prior he had finishes of 1st, 2nd, and 9th. Even though around this time of the season a lot of golfers’ recent events played are pretty spread out, we can still consider his recent form to be very solid as he’s finished no worse than 24th in his last five starts. Day ranks a lot lower than the other guys around this price range in my key stats as he’s 97th in SG: BS, 18th in Driving Distance, 81st in Long Iron Accuracy, 13th in BoB%, 52nd in P5 AVG and 61st in Bogey Avoidance. However, one major advantage that I give him that I won’t often give many golfers is the edge that he has at being a perennially elite putter (4th in SG: Putting) and he’s also 2nd in SG: Around the Green. So even though he isn’t the best when it comes to tee-to-green play, he still has the great length with his driver that is crucial here and does everything else really well around and on the greens while having plenty of past success at Torrey Pines. His 14:1 odds to win trail only Jon Rahm (10:1).

Tony Finau (DK: $9.9k | FD: $10.7k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

For anyone familiar with Tony Finau, you likely aren’t surprised to see that his game sets up perfectly for this sort of course. He has elite distance off the tee and can pour in the birdies while mitigating the risk of making too many bogeys. He’s just a super consistent player illustrated by him missing just six cuts out of the 54 events he’s played in over the last two years. He’s also 4/4 cuts made here at Torrey Pines which most recently includes a 6th place finish last year and a 4th place in 2017. He ranks 24th in SG: BS, 2nd in Driving Distance, 9th in BoB%, 33rd in Long Iron Accuracy, 4th in P5 AVG and 16th in Bogey Avoidance. He’s an 18:1 favorite and is sure to carry high ownership this week but this is some chalk I’ll happily take in all formats. He’s the top ranked golfer in my personal player model.

Mid-Priced Targets

Gary Woodland (DK: $9k | FD: $10.6k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Woodland was a popular option a couple weeks ago for the Sony Open and he put up a disappointing MDF (made cut, didn’t finish). The hope would be that this keeps ownership off of him this week because there are too many green flags to ignore him from heavy consideration at Torrey Pines. He’s never missed a cut here in nine starts and has three consecutive top 20 finishes as well as a 10th place finish in 2014. He easily stands out in nearly all of my key stats that I’m looking at as well. He’s 5th in SG: BS, 13th in Driving Distance, 14th in BoB%, 2nd in Long Iron Accuracy, 6th in P5 AVG while coming in at 72nd in Bogey Avoidance as the only key metric he’s not top 15 in. He really just had one bad round of golf at the Sony Open which isn’t going to be enough for me to knock him out of consideration in all formats this week. He has 28:1 odds and comes in 3rd in my player model.

JB Holmes (DK: $7.9k | FD: $10.5k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Ranking: ★★★★☆

With five consecutive made cuts at Torrey Pines, which includes a 4th place last year, 6th in 2016 and runner-up in 2015, Holmes fits the mold of a “course horse” this week and he has the most strokes gained here in the last five years. He hasn’t played since early November but the same can be said of a lot of the golfers in this field. He ranks 30th in SG: BS, 36th in Driving Distance, 45th in BoB%, 104th in Long Iron Accuracy, 101st in P5 AVG and 88th in Bogey Avoidance. Definitely not stats that “wow” you but he also has very strong splits on poa annua greens and the course history is simply too strong. He got off to a solid start in the swing season, making 4/4 cuts with three top 25's. So the last we saw of him, the form was looking good. He’s a solid enough option for me to consider him cash safe and very viable in tournaments as well.

Low-Priced Targets

JJ Spaun (DK: $7.3k | FD: $9.2k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

In a field strong enough to rival that of a Major, I don’t think you want to get cute with cash lineup builds by taking many risks with guys priced too far down but Spaun makes a case for viability in all formats. He does have just two career starts here which have come in the last two years and he posted strong finishes in both -- 23rd in 2018 and 9th in 2017. He’s also gotten off to a nice start to the 2018-2019 season, making 7/7 cuts with three top 15 results. Spaun ranks 23rd in SG: BS, 80th in Driving Distance, 66th in Long Iron Accuracy, 39th in BoB%, 56th in P5 AVG and 41st in Bogey Avoidance -- all very respectable metrics for someone in this salary range. Spaun is not a golfer I have traditionally liked playing but considering he stands out as 8th in my player model, I’ll be giving him a strong look this week -- at least for tournaments.

Anders Albertson (DK: $7k | FD: $8k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Albertson doesn’t seem to be catching as much rookie hype as other guys like Cameron Champ, Sungjae Im, or Sam Burns in their debut seasons on the PGA Tour but that doesn’t hide the fact that the young fella from Houston, Texas has been playing really well. He’s made five consecutive cuts and most recently posted a respectable 34th place finish in last week’s Desert Classic. Albertson grades out very well in a few key metrics this week. Overall, he’s 1st in SG: BS, 103rd in Driving Distance, 86th in Long Iron Accuracy, 8th in BoB%, 21st in P5 AVG and 1st in Bogey Avoidance. The main concern is his lack of length off the tee. But with an average driving distance of 293.2 yards, it shouldn’t necessarily keep him from being competitive if he continues the strong play in the other aspects of his game. At his DFS salaries, simply making the cut would almost secure him returning value and I think he has a great shot to do that this week.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced

- Jon Rahm (DK: $11.4k | FD: $11.9k) | GPP Only | I like to hop on the Rahm-bo train when it’s hot, as he has been lately. His price is probably a bit too restrictive for cash but he won here in 2017 and the Spaniard has the perfect game for these courses.

- Tiger Woods (DK: $10.5k | $11.5k) | GPP Only | As usual, his Vegas odds and DFS salaries are inflated due to the fact that he’s Tiger Woods but I’ll be damned if I don’t have him on at least one GPP lineup. He’s also won at Torrey Pines roughly a thousand times it seems like.

Mid-Priced

- Cameron Champ (DK: $8.5k | FD: $9.8k) | GPP Only | He can launch it a mile and is easily 1st in the field in driving distance. This course sets up perfectly for him but my, and many others, primary concern lie with wondering whether or not his putter can stay as hot as it has been in some of his recent events where he finished high on the leaderboard.

- Abraham Ancer (DK: $8.2k | $9.4k) | Cash & GPP | Ancer has been playing really well and should be a nice mid-range pivot off of some other more popular guys this week.

- Hideki Matsuyama (DK: $8k | FD: $11.7k) | DK Only: Cash & GPP | Hideki’s DFS prices are wildly different from the two sites. Too good of a golfer to be only $8k on DraftKings though. Finished 12th here last year.

- Sungjae Im (DK: $7.8k | FD: $9k) | Cash & GPP | The mid-range is loaded with intriguing plays and Im has thoroughly impressed the last two weeks with 16th and 12th place finishes. Has the ball striking ability (11th), length (32nd), and BoB% (2nd) to do well at Torrey Pines.

Low-Priced

- Harris English (DK: $7.3k | FD: $7.8k) | Cash & GPP | Something about English just feels like a trap play this week and makes me hesitant to recommend him for cash but he has insanely good course history for the price. 6/6 cuts made and in the last four years has finished 8th, 14th, 31st and 2nd at Torrey Pines.

- Keith Mitchell (DK: $7k | FD: $8.3k) | GPP Only | Fits the “bomber” narrative and made the cut in his Torrey Pines debut last year. A bit “boom or bust” so I’m likely only looking at him for tournaments.

Weekly Bets

This is a new addition so feel free to let me know if it should stick around or not. I’ll simply run through what I’m liking from a betting perspective each week. Golf betting is a bit risky, especially when it comes to betting outright winners. So if you're new to it, use caution! Hitting an outright winner can result in very nice profits, however. All outright, first round leader, top 5 and top 10 bets are one unit each. Units on tournament match-up bets are further specified. All odds are from Bovada as of Tuesday afternoon.

We’ll be hosting a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar freeroll!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd-3rd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt or mug

• BONUS - If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our Farmers Insurance Open preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week!

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