Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions! 

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour sets its sights on Torrey Pines Golf Club in San Diego, California for the Farmers Insurance Open. In many people’s minds, this is where ‘the road to The Masters’ often begins. This event often has one of the stronger fields that you will see outside of Majors and WGC tournaments. Within the 156-player field, we have 11 of the world’s top 25 golfers on site this week as well as 37 of the top 100. Also, Tiger Woods is making his 2020 PGA debut, so you know this is a big week across the golfing landscape. Similar to last week, this will be a multi-course event, though with just two courses played instead of three. The traditional cut rule is also back in play, so the top 65 (plus ties) after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

Torrey Pines GC features two Par 72 courses -- Torrey Pines South & Torrey Pines North. Golfers will play each course through the first two rounds and the South course will be the only one played over the final two rounds. The South course checks in as the longest track on Tour at a whopping 7,698 yards and played as the 18th most difficult course (out of 49) last year. The North course is nearly 450 yards shorter in length, stretching 7,258 yards, and plays much easier -- last season it ranked as just the 45th most difficult course on Tour.

For the first couple of days in single round formats, I would highly recommend stacking golfers playing on the North course (though you’ll have to deal with no ShotLink/ShotTracker data and very little TV coverage for those golfers). With three rounds being played on the South course, that will be where I keep the majority of my focus this week for traditional four round DFS contest formats. The fairways at Torrey Pines South are tough to hit (average of about 51%) and the greens are quite small. Given the extreme length, bombers have a clear cut advantage here. Ten of the last 14 winners here have ranked inside the top 30 in driving distance. This shouldn’t completely rule out the shorter hitters but they’ll need to be excellent long iron players if they want to really compete. It can depend on overall weather conditions but the cutline often falls around even par here and winning scores have been between 6-under and 21-under over the last five years. So, with all that said, let’s jump into a look at the weather, some key stats and the players I’m targeting this week at Torrey Pines!

Video: Torrey Pines South Course Fly-Over

Weather ⛅

Not much to worry about in the forecast this week. Winds should be well below 10 mph for nearly the entirety of this event and there is no rain to worry about. Easy peasy.

One thing I will note is that the South course features poa annua greens (North course has bentgrass greens). Poa annua is more difficult to putt on in the afternoon, as the surface can get bumpy the longer it is exposed to sunlight. This would be very ticky tacky, and maybe a bit of info you can reserve using for the Saturday/Sunday single round showdown slates, but you could give a slight edge to the guys who draw tee times on the South course in the mornings.

Farmers Insurance Open Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: BS) | 35%

2. Driving Distance | 20%

3. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 20%

4. Long Iron Accuracy (Proximity 175+ Yards) | 15%

5. Par 5 Birdie or Better % (P5 BoB%) | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Hideki Matsuyama | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11k

Vegas: 20/1 | Custom Model Rank: #3

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Other guys at the top, like McIlroy and Rahm, shouldn’t be ignored this week but at the respective price points I’m having a tough time looking past Hideki as a cornerstone play, specifically as a cash game anchor. His worst finish in his last five events has been a T16 and in the last three years at Torrey Pines he has finishes of T3, T12, and T33. He stands out very well on paper, ranking 9th in the field in SG: BS, 75th in Driving Distance, 17th in BoB%, 22nd in Long Iron Accuracy, and 11th in P5 BoB%. Matsuyama may not have one of the longest drivers out there but he can send it a bit over 300 yards with solid regularity. He’s also a world class scrambler and excels at avoiding bogeys. It’s hard to picture the Hidekibot failing us this week with the way his game has been rolling lately.

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10k

Vegas: 40/1 | Custom Model Rank: #14

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

The strength of this field is going to challenge Scheffler more than any other event he has played in this season but he has done more than enough to give me confidence that he can hang with all the superstar names out there this week. Scheffler has already secured four top 10s across eight starts this season, including three top five finishes within his last four events. The only thing that gives me slight pause on him is his lack of course history (which is also keeping him down a bit in my tournament model rankings). This will be his professional debut at Torrey Pines but, by all means, he has the tools to compete on this lengthy layout. Scheffler ranks 10th in SG: BS, 11th in Driving Distance, 3rd in BoB%, 65th in Long Iron Accuracy, and 21st in P5 BoB%. I think we’ll see another very strong outing from big Scottie Scheffler this week.

Mid-Priced Targets

Ryan Palmer | DK: $8k, FD: $9.7k

Vegas: 50/1 | Custom Model Rank: #5

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Palmer may not fit the bomber profile which you would normally want to try to target on Torrey Pines South but he is rolling in with some of the best form in the field and has excelled at this venue the last couple of years. Palmer has made 5/5 cuts on the young season, including four straight top 20s, and has most recently finished 13th (‘19) and 2nd (‘18) at Torrey Pines GC. He ranks 17th in SG: BS, 104th in Driving Distance, 13th in BoB%, 73rd in Long Iron Accuracy, and 22nd in P5 BoB%. He’s one of the few shorter hitters off the tee that I have a lot of confidence in for this event.

Cameron Champ | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.5k

Vegas: 80/1 | Custom Model Rank: #19

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

There are guys who can hit it long, then there are bombers, then there are your Cameron Champs of the world who can knock 330+ yard drives pretty regularly. Champ has gotten off to a nice start to the 2019-20 PGA season, having made 7/8 cuts including a win at the Safeway Open. He did miss the cut in his Torrey Pines debut last year, but we’ll see if he can learn from his mistakes and have better luck the second time around. Overall, in this field, he ranks 12th in SG: BS, 1st in Driving Distance, 16th in BoB%, 80th in Long Iron Accuracy, and 6th in P5 BoB%. I’m not sure if I’m completely sold on him as a cash game play for this week but he’s one of my favorite mid-range GPP options out there this week.

Low-Priced Targets

Harris English | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.2k

Vegas: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #10

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

English is a major standout option in this price range given his strong recent form and really solid course history. He has made 6/7 cuts on this season with four finishes of T6 or better. Likewise, he has also made 6/7 cuts at Torrey Pines GC with a couple of top 10s to his name. Were it not for shooting a 74 in the closing round of last week’s American Express tournament, he could have been pushing for yet another high end finish. Ultimately, he came away with a lackluster T48 but I’m really not all too worried about the overall form. He ranks 15th in SG: BS, 31st in Driving Distance, 26th in BoB%, 109th in Long Iron Accuracy, and 113th in P5 BoB%. Those final two stats are a little concerning but, to his credit, he is a strong scrambler and has one of the lowest bogey percentages in the field. Even if he doesn’t necessarily crush the Par 5s, I think he’ll avoid dropping shots better than most of the field. In my opinion, for these salaries, he’s a solid option in all formats.

Maverick McNealy | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.3k

Vegas: 200/1 | Custom Model Rank: #17

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Admittedly, I am not extremely familiar with McNealy. But he rated highly in my player model last week and was barely above minimum salary on both sites. His prices have risen a bit but after a solid T37 last week, he once again stands out as a viable bottom of the barrel play. McNealy has made the cut in seven consecutive starts and in his lone appearance at Torrey Pines GC in 2018 he came away with a 29th place finish. He ranks 97th in SG: BS, 65th in Driving Distance, 5th in BoB%, 54th in Long Iron Accuracy, and 7th in P5 BoB%. He’s simply dropping a ton of birdies lately and really makes a case as a viable punt option, perhaps even in cash games.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Tiger Woods | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.7k

Vegas: 11/1 | CMR: #4 | GPP Preferred

How can you not roll out at least one Tiger lineup in his 2020 debut? He is the king of Torrey Pines, with eight total wins on this course. I love both Rory and Rahm here as well but Tiger is certainly capable of ‘shipping this event once again.

Jason Day | DK: $9k, FD: $10.2k

Vegas: 40/1 | CMR: #35 | GPP Preferred

Day’s health has been the primary concern with him lately but he is an excellent course horse to target for GPPs. At Torrey Pines, he has two wins (‘18 & ‘15) and five overall top 10 finishes. Terrific upside but also a decent amount of risk. I’m anxious to see how he looks out there this week.

Cameron Smith | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.9k

Vegas: 40/1 | CMR: #12 | Cash & GPP

Coming off a huge win at the Sony Open and has finished T9, T20, and T33 the last three years at Torrey Pines. I believe he’s a solid all around investment this week.

Matthew Wolff | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.6k

Vegas: 66/1 | CMR: #25 | GPP Preferred

No course experience for the 20-year-old Wolff but I love the course fit a ton. He ranks 12th in my stats only model, anchored by dominant play off the tee. A tad risky, but plenty of upside.

Lanto Griffin | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.4k

Vegas: 80/1 | CMR: #9 | Cash & GPP

He’s done nothing lately to keep me from constantly spamming his name in these newsletters week in and week out. He crushes Par 5s (2nd in P5 BoB%) and ranks 35th or better in all five of my key stats for the week. Posted a T12 in his lone Torrey Pines appearance in 2018. I like him across the board once again.

JB Holmes | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.7k

Vegas: 150/1 | CMR: #110 | GPP Only

Given the current form, Holmes shouldn't be anywhere near a cash lineup, but he is intriguing from a course history perspective. Missed the cut here last year but in four starts at Torrey Pines between 2015 and 2018, Holmes had finishes of T2, T6, T33, and T4. In the off chance that he has gotten his game back together, he has clearly shown a fondness of the event and venue.

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That will do it for our Farmers Insurance Open preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week!

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