By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour sets its sights on Torrey Pines Golf Club in San Diego, California for the Farmers Insurance Open. In many people’s minds, this is where ‘the road to The Masters’ often begins. This event typically hosts one of the stronger fields that you will see outside of Majors and WGC tournaments. Within the 156-player field, we have 14 of the world’s top 25 golfers on site this week as well as 47 of the top 100. Similar to last week, this will be a multi-course event but with two courses in play instead of three. The traditional cut rule is also back in play, so the top 65 (plus ties) after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend.

Most importantly, remember that this event will start on Wednesday at 12 pm ET/9 am PT (local)! This is a savvy move by the PGA as they look to avoid losing 90% of its viewership to the NFL’s Conference Championship Sunday doubleheader. Make sure your lineups, bets, and OAD picks are all set by tomorrow at first tee!

The Course Preview ⛳

Torrey Pines South

Par 72 | 7,765 Yards

Greens: Poa

Difficulty Last 5 Years: 4th, 7th, 18th, 8th, 14th

Torrey Pines North

Par 72 | 7,258 Yards

Greens: Poa/Bent

Difficulty Last 5 Years: 44th, 33rd, 45th, 28th, 32nd

Torrey Pines GC features two Par 72 courses – Torrey Pines South & Torrey Pines North. Golfers will play both courses, one round apiece, through the first two rounds, and the South Course will be the only one played after the cut over the final two rounds. The South course checks in as the longest track on the PGA Tour circuit at a whopping 7,765 yards and routinely plays as one of the more difficult courses on Tour (4th most difficult in 2021). The North course is around 500 yards shorter in length, stretching 7,258 yards, and plays much easier – last season it ranked as the 44th most difficult course on Tour. Typically, the South course will play around three to four strokes more difficult than the North course. Renovations to the North course a few years back were made in order to provide golfers with a more difficult challenge, but there is still a stark difference in how tough both of these courses play. If you’re someone who plays single round PGA DFS contests, over the first two rounds I would highly recommend stacking golfers playing only on the North course (though, if it matters to you, you’ll have to do without ShotLink/ShotTracker data and very little TV coverage for those golfers). The same idea of targeting golfers playing on the North course would go for first round leader bets if that’s something you dabble in. You can find a link to the tee times and course assignments below in the weather/tee time section.

With three rounds being played on the South Course (and the North Course expected to be a bit of a cakewalk by comparison), that will be where we should keep the majority of our focus this week for traditional four-round DFS contest formats. Torrey Pines South features bunker-ridden narrow tree-lined fairways that are challenging to hit (average fairway accuracy is about 50%). The gnarly 2.5+” rough can be absolutely ruthless to hit out of as well. Given the extreme length, bombers can have a clear advantage here… if they manage to mostly avoid the rough. However, even when the bombers do land in the rough, they will be the golfers who have more strength and clubhead speed which is needed to make a decent shot out of the thick stuff. Nine of the last 15 winners here have ranked inside the top 30 in driving distance. This shouldn’t completely rule out the shorter hitters but, on top of being very accurate off the tee, they’ll need to be excellent long iron players as well if they want to really compete and push for a top 10-25 finish. And, inevitably, every golfer is going to find themselves in the rough at some point, even the most accurate of guys off the tee.

The smaller, multi-tiered poa annua greens are well protected and will provide one final challenge. Poa annua grass is a unique putting surface as grows quite fast throughout the day, so golfers teeing up in the afternoon could experience bumpier and more unpredictable putting reads. Golfers either love it or hate it -- not much in between. Overall, the greens will typically run fast (~13 on the stimpmeter) and the back to front slopes will lead to a bevy of fast putts. It can depend on overall weather conditions (more on that below) but the cutline often falls to around even par here and. This is also no birdie fest as winning scores have been anywhere between 6-under and 16-under in nine of the last 10 years with Justin Rose being the lone outlier when he won in 2019 with a score of 21-under. So, with all of that said, let’s jump into a look at the weather, some key stats, which golfers are popping in my personal tournament model, and some players worth considering this week at Torrey Pines!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Temperature & Rain: Temps will be cool but comfortable in the 50s/60s all week. No rain is in the forecast.

Wind: There could be 10+ mph wind speeds at times during Friday’s third round but, aside from that, sustained wind speeds will reside in the single digits all week.

Verdict: Golfers get pretty lucky with a cool, calm, and dry forecast this week. And, hey, that’s one less headache for us to worry about when constructing lineups! No wave advantage to be had this week.

Farmers Insurance Open tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Tee to Green | 25%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Driving Distance | 15%

4. Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa) | 15%

5. Par 5 Average | 15%

6. Rough Proximity | 10%

Farmers Insurance Open Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model (takes into account key stats along with different weights on recent form, course history, Vegas odds, and recent fantasy points scored) and my key stats model (ranked only by the stats listed above) along with the leaders in average fantasy points over the last five/ten starts. The players on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options this week.

High-Priced Targets

Key Stats Only Rank; Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated towards each metric.

Overall Model Rank; a golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Jon Rahm | DK: $11.2k, FD: $12.2k

Odds: 7.5/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Overall Model Rank: #1

Leading off with Rahm-bo may be the layup of all layups. He is essentially in his own tier at this point and has nearly twice the win equity as the next closest golfer (Justin Thomas: 14/1), yet he’ll only run you $200-$300 more in DFS salary. Not only does Rahm top every golfer on paper, but he also possesses arguably the best course history in the field as well. In five appearances in the Farmers Insurance Open, he has made the cut with ease each time while posting four finishes of T-7 or better, including his win here in 2017. Given how deep the talent pool is this week, it’s certainly not a stretch to fit Rahm into cash lineups. I expect many will lock in Rahm and fill out the rest of their lineup with mid-range value. Nothing wrong with that approach whatsoever.

Sam Burns | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 22/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #4

Overall Model Rank: #5

The “Things to Like About Sam Burns” list is a long one this week. Over his last 10 starts, his worst finish has been T-21, which came in a stacked field at The Northern Trust, and he has six total top 10s in that span including a win (Sanderson Farms Champ.). His course history at Torrey Pines isn’t spectacular but he did land a strong T-18 at last year’s Farmers Insurance Open. Now that he is riding the best form of his career, Burns should make for an excellent course fit. He’s been tremendous in the tee to green department (ranks 5th in SG: T2G), he knocks in plenty of birdies (4th in BoB%), scores well on Par 5s (16th in P5 AVG), has ample length to take on Torrey Pines South (29th in Driving Distance), and is a strong putter on Poa greens (23rd in SG: Putting - Poa). I’m not totally against him as a cash play but he’ll absolutely be a prime GPP golfer to target this week.

Marc Leishman | DK: $9k, FD: $10.5k

Odds: 40/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #11

Overall Model Rank: #2

Leishman may not be the definition of a bomber but he can routinely drive it around 300 yards and his game has obviously led to a number of great finishes here at Torrey Pines in the past. Leishman won this tournament in 2020 and, overall, he’s made 11-of-13 cuts here with five top 10s. He’s also gotten off to a great start to the new season after making 7-of-7 cuts with three top 10 finishes. While a number of golfers will outperform Leishman off of the tee box, he can let his flat stick do much of the heavy lifting as he ranks 10th in the field in SG: Putting (Poa). If Leishman simply plays adequate with the driver and his irons, look for another respectable Farmers Insurance Open finish from the Aussie.

Mid-Priced Targets

Ryan Palmer | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 60/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #23

Overall Model Rank: #22

I believe the mid-range is where the biggest decisions must be made this week. Many golfers in this general price range have a shot at a high finish on the leaderboard, perhaps even a win. Palmer is riding some fine form with four straight made cuts, including a T-12 at the Sony Open two weeks ago. What’s more alluring is his recent course history. Palmer has played this tournament four times in the last decade but all four of those starts have come in the last four seasons. He’s come away with finishes of T-2, T-21, T-13, and T-2 in those four Farmers Insurance Open starts. While Palmer does not leap off the stat sheer, he does not have a major weakness when it comes to the key stats for this tournament and he may be primed for another high-end finish here in 2022.

Luke List | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.1k

Odds: 80/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #21

Overall Model Rank: #15

Luke List as a cash viable play? I’m fairly certain I told myself a long time ago that I would never recommend List as a cash play, but here we are. We live in strange times, indeed. One thing we have to get out of the way is the fact that List is one of the worst putters on the PGA Tour. There is no sugarcoating it, he simply sucks with the flat stick. Despite that fact, everything else about his game has been on point and List has actually gained *the* most strokes tee to green out of any other golfer over the last three calendar months. He’s also capable of being one of the 10 longest drivers in this field so the length of Torrey Pines South will not be an issue for List, evidenced by his T-10 performance here a year ago which was also his fourth consecutive made cut at this event. With the way his tee to green game is flowing, List makes an abundance of sense out of this price range. If he can ever find a way to sink a trickier putt here and there, he’ll have some realistic winning upside. As it stands now, if he merely manages to stay around even to the field in SG: Putting, perhaps even lose a stroke or two, while sinking the routine three-to-five footers, then he’ll still provide some top 15 upside to lineups.

Aaron Wise | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 80/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #27

Overall Model Rank: #23

Given his most recent results (seven straight finishes of T-26 or better), Wise would seemingly profile as a golfer who should be in play in all DFS formats. However, there are a couple of hang-ups that will keep Wise out of my personal cash lineup. One: he hasn’t played a competitive round of golf since the Houston Open in mid-November so who knows whether or not there is some rust that needs to be shaken off. Two: he hasn’t really had any success at Torrey Pines, (barely) making only one of three cuts. I should also add that Wise has not proven to be a particularly good putter on Poa greens (114th in SG: Putting - Poa). Most everything else looks great though. In this field, Wise ranks 8th in SG: T2G, 13th in BoB%, and 26th in P5 AVG. He’ll drive the ball around 300 yards regularly as well. Wise is due for a breakthrough performance sooner rather than later, and if he carries over the same form he had in the fall into this week, then he may be cashing a sizable check after Saturday’s final round.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Wyndham Clark | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #92

Overall Model Rank: #63

Clark’s style of golf makes him a volatile DFS asset as he relies heavily on bombing it (6th in Driving Distance) and sinking putts without much emphasis on accurate and efficient tee to green play (110th in SG: T2G). Despite his volatile style of play, he has managed to notch 6-of-7 made cuts this season and came away with a 13th place finish at the AMEX last week. Clark has also made the cut in 2-of-3 tries at Torrey Pines, with a T-32 in 2021 and a T35 in 2019. Clark actually gained nearly two strokes on approach last week so if that same sort of iron play shows up at Torrey Pines, he can absolutely surprise some people.

Taylor Moore | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 150/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #39

Overall Model Rank: #52

Since crushing it on the Korn Ferry Tour (ranked 4th in scoring average) and coming over to play with the big boys in the fall, Moore has enjoyed some notable success. He’s made 4-of-6 PGA cuts with three top 25 finishes. He brings a strong short game to the table and also checks in at 34th in this field in SG: T2G and 29th in BoB%. No doubt that this will be Moore’s toughest challenge to date as he makes his Torrey Pines debut, but he does have above average distance off the tee and it wouldn’t be a stretch for Moore to backdoor another sneaky top 25 finish this week. The guy has some skills!

Austin Eckroat | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.3k

Odds: 300/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Eckroat was a late addition to the field but he will immediately step in as one of the more intriguing pure punt plays on the board. After performing at a star level in college at Oklahoma State, Eckroat’s professional career is only just getting started; yet he has already shown that he can hold his own in PGA caliber fields and courses. He has made three of his last four PGA cuts, including a T-16 finish at last year’s 3M Open and a T-22 at the Bermuda Championship. It’s a limited sample size of PGA rounds, but Eckroat has shown to have some capable irons, a solid putter, and is above PGA Tour average in driving distance. Torrey Pines South can be a daunting and unforgiving course that may eat up a young, inexperienced golfer like Eckroat. But if you’re looking for a Hail Mary punt play, there is also plenty to like about this kid.

Others to Consider

High-Priced:

Dustin Johnson | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.5k | GPP Preferred

DJ’s putter can do some major damage but now it’s time to see if he’s gotten his T2G game back in order following some time off (hasn’t played since mid-October).

Bryson DeChambeau | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.6k | GPP Preferred

It’s hard to knock DeChambeau’s bomber skillset on a course that checks in as the longest on the PGA Tour. He’s apparently going to be trying out a new driver this week in an effort to attain even more distance on his already insane off the tee length.

Tony Finau | DK: $9.1k, FD: $11.1k | Cash & GPP

His recent form is a touch spotty but Finau always putts the lights out on this course where he’s made 7-of-7 cuts with four top 10s (finishes T-2 last year).

Mid-Priced

Matthew Wolff | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.9k | GPP Preferred

Ownership should be way down after a dud performance last week. Wolff is a volatile option but his game can translate very well on this course.

Keegan Bradley | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.6k | GPP Preferred

Ya never know what Keegan’s putter is going to do but you do know that you’ll almost always get one of the best tee to green players when you throw him in lineups. Finished T-16 or better in three of his last four starts here.

Lanto Griffin | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.4k | Cash & GPP

It’s hard to ignore the three top seven finishes he has posted within his last five starts. Lanto returns to Torrey Pines where he finished T-7 last year, missed the cut in 2020, and finished T-12 in 2018.

Low-Priced:

Brandt Snedeker | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.9k | GPP Preferred

Sneds’ form is trending back up and he’s had a great deal of success here: 13-of-15 made cuts with eight top 10s and a pair of wins (2012 & 2016). I’m tempted to push Snedeker into cash consideration as well. A lot of trends to like for him this week.

Patrick Rodgers | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.6k | GPP Preferred

Rodgers has only made 2-of-6 cuts at Torrey Pines but those two made cuts resulted in a T-9 (2020) and a T-4 (2017). He can make things happen with his short game and tends to roll it well on Poa greens.

Joseph Bramlett | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.9k | GPP Preferred

Bramlett let some shots get away from him with the putter and around the greens last week, but he led the entire field in SG: OTT (+3.11 strokes) and was third in SG: Ball Striking (+6.40 strokes) en route to a T-33 finish. Bramlett can bomb it (5th in Driving Distance) and has made the cut in both of his previous starts at Torrey Pines, including a T-18 last season.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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