By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

One of the many great things about the PGA -- it has the shortest offseason in sports! Patrick Cantlay came away with a $15 million top prize after winning the 2020-21 FedEx Cup Playoffs just over a week and a half ago, and we’re already hopping right back into the action. So, welcome to the 2021-22 PGA season everyone! I know NFL reigns supreme around this time of year, but PGA DFS can be a highly lucrative and entertaining venture in it’s own right. I honestly wasn’t much of a golf fan growing up but probably around six or seven years ago I started getting invested in PGA DFS and quickly became enamored with the sport. If you’re looking to give it a shot this season, feel free to hit me up in LineStar chat or message me over on Twitter with any questions you may have!

The new season tees off in Napa Valley, California with the Fortinet Championship (formerly dubbed the Safeway Open) which will be hosted by the Silverado Resort & Spa (North Course). The field strength for these early season events is usually going to be on the weaker side and we won’t really see any star-studded fields until we get into the 2022 calendar year (not counting next week’s Ryder Cup event). However, even the more casual golf fans will recognize plenty of names this week with 23 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers on site at the Fortinet Championship, headlined by the planet’s top ranked golfer, Jon Rahm. In total, over 150 golfers will be teeing it up this week and the standard cut rule will once again be in play -- the top 65 golfers (incl. ties) after two rounds will earn their way into the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

The North Course at the Silverado Resort & Spa is a Par 72 that stretches 7,123 yards. This has been the host course for this event every year since 2014, so there is a solid set of course history to dig into. Silverado CC is not an overly tough layout, but it can show its teeth at times, especially if the weather is sub-optimal. Over the last five years, in terms of difficulty, this course has ranked 43rd, 19th, 29th, 23rd, and 36th. A winning score in the mid-to-high teens can usually be expected.

With the four Par 5s, there are going to be a high amount of birdie opportunities this week, along with some eagle chances as well. But several holes in this course can turn out to be a bit tricky and produce some large scorecard numbers so some significant back-and-forth shifts on the leaderboard can be expected. There are several course defenses in play here – primarily residing in the undulated poa greens and tight, difficult-to-hit tree-lined fairways which feature plenty of strategically placed bunkers that protect the preferred landing zones. The North Course isn’t long by any means and accuracy over distance tends to be more rewarding even though the rough isn’t overly penalizing. There are a few holes where a more aggressive approach off the tee can pay dividends so longer hitters can look to make some moves in those situations. Overall, the golfers most likely to excel this week are the ones who will keep their ball in the short grass, possess an accurate approach game, and capitalize on the four easy Par 5 holes while separating themselves from the pack by scoring well on the more difficult Par 4s.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Perfect early fall-esque golfing weather for the opening two rounds so there will be no need to worry over a tee time advantage this week. Winds could hit 10-15 mph sustained in the weekend rounds, with a chance for some rain coming into play early Sunday, but there is nothing to really even be remotely concerned about.

Fortinet Championship Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Birdie or Better % | 25%

3. Par 5 Average | 20%

4. Par 4 Average | 15%

5. *Good Drive % | 10%

> *The percent of time a player hit a good drive.

Good Drive % Definition: On Par 4 and Par 5s, the number of fairways hit, + the # of Greens or fringe hit in regulation when the drive was not in the fairway on the tee shot divided by the number of Par 4 and Par 5s played

High-Priced Targets

Key Stats Only Rank; Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated towards each metric.

Overall Model Rank (OMR); a golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Jon Rahm | DK: $12.1k, FD: $12.5k

Odds: 4/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Overall Model Rank: #1

Despite the fact that Rahm will require 24.2% (DK) and 20.8% (FD) of your allotted salary, he’s still likely to be the highest owned player in the field. He is simply head and shoulders the best player competing in this tournament and his 4/1 odds to win is an incredibly rare number to see in golf. We’re talking prime Tiger odds when they’re in the 4/1 territory and, in fact, the last time a golfer was this heavily favored to win a PGA event was Tiger in 2013 at Bay Hill. I’d feel extremely nervous about fading Rahm-bo this week.

Webb Simpson | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 14/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Overall Model Rank: #5

With Rahm poised to command so much ownership up top, essentially every other $10k+ (DK) and $11k+ (FD) golfer can likely be viewed as a leverage play. Simpson is probably going to be the guy I’d most prefer to pivot to if I’m not going after a mega chalky Rahm. It was a bit of an odd year on Tour for Webb with some uncharacteristically poor finishes and a few missed cuts. But he really started to trend back up towards the end of the season, particularly with his iron play as he gained strokes on approach in eight of his final ten starts. Simpson hasn’t played here since 2017 (T-17 finish) but any course that requires accuracy off the tee and sharp iron play will typically fit his game perfectly.

Harold Varner III | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.9k

Odds: 35/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #26

Overall Model Rank: #7

HV3 will have some quality ‘course horse’ appeal after making the cut here at Silverado CC every year in each of the previous six seasons, highlighted by three top 20s. While he didn’t quite make it inside the top 30 of the FedEx Cup points standings in order to qualify for the TOUR Championship, in the two playoff events Varner did compete in (which was of course against very difficult competition), he landed T-11 and T-12 finishes. Anchored by sharp irons and a strong driver, Varner should continue his success at Silverado CC.

Cameron Champ | DK: $9k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #48

Overall Model Rank: #17

Champ has two winning trends going for him this week. He is not far removed from his victory at the 3M Open four starts ago. And the last time he competed on this course (2019), he came away victorious then as well. Champ is far from the most consistent golfers and his best club in the bag, by far, is his booming driver (1st in this field in driving distance). But if he is one of those long hitters who comes here with an aggressive approach, as long as he just shows some decent consistency with his irons and putter, he could certainly push for another podium finish. The four Par 5s at Silverado CC, which are all under 575 yards in length, could present several eagle opportunities for a guy like Champ who can routinely blast 330+ yard drives.

Mid-Priced Targets

Charley Hoffman | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.5k

Odds: 45/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #8

Overall Model Rank: #21

There probably weren’t many guys I played more often than Hoffman last season, particularly in cash games. He has only one missed cut to his name across his last 16 PGA Tour events and he had a stretch between late February and the start of June where he finished no worse than T-18 in eight of ten events. Hoffman hasn’t had much success in three previous appearances at Silverado CC, having made just one-of-three cuts here in his career. But given the form he showed nearly all of last season, I believe he starts off the new season with a strong performance at the Fortinet Championship.

Chez Reavie | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 66/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #42

Overall Model Rank: #25

We’ll ride the ‘course horse’ narrative once again with Reavie, who has never missed a cut at Silverado CC in seven starts. He most recently finished T-3 here last season with an average overall finish of 25th place. Reavie’s inconsistency with the putter (89th in SG: Putt) and lack of regular birdie prowess (90th in BoB%) will make him more of a GPP play. But if he does start rolling it well with the flat stick this week, his accuracy off the tee (2nd in Driv. Acc & 2nd in Good Drive%), as well as his sharp irons (10th in SG: App), could lead to another promising week.

Mito Pereira | DK: $8k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 66/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A*

Overall Model Rank: N/A*

*Not enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data

We received a nice glimpse of what Pereira brings to the table at the PGA level down the final stretch of the 2020-21 season, and we are going to see him quite a bit this season now that he holds his PGA Tour card. In the month of July, Pereira had a four-event stretch where he notched a T-34, T-5, and T-6 on the PGA Tour before landing another impressive T-4 finish in the Olympic men’s competition. Prior to that, he had a slew of success on the Korn Ferry Tour where he won back-to-back tournaments in early June. In a weak field like the one on tap for this week, Pereira has some excellent potential to find some success and gain some further valuable PGA-level experience.

Taylor Moore | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.7k

Odds: 80/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A*

Overall Model Rank: N/A*

*Not enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data

This is a good week to take some shots on some golfers who are largely unknown quantities at the PGA level. Moore is another brand new PGA Tour cardholder for the 2021-22 season and he comes into the Fortinet Championship with a head of steam following an excellent run on the Korn Ferry Tour. He finished with six top 10s in his final seven KFT starts, including a win and solo runner-up. Moore ranked 5th on the KFT in ball striking and was 8th in birdie average per round. I don’t mind taking some moderate risk by gaining exposure to golfers like Moore who are looking to make a splash in their first season as a PGA Tour professional.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Taylor Pendrith | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A*

Overall Model Rank: N/A*

*Not enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data

Pendrith is yet another PGA Tour newcomer who will draw some interest this week. He ranked 12th on the KFT last season in ball striking, 5th in birdie average, and he carries a huge driver (323.3 yards/drive, ranked 3rd on KFT). He made a few appearances on the PGA circuit last season, most recently landing T-13 and T-11 results at the Barracuda Championship and Barbasol Championship, respectively. Ultimately he made 4-of-5 PGA cuts with the lone MC coming at the US Open against a loaded field. I like him to outperform these salaries this week.

Cameron Percy | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.1k

Odds: 175/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #15

Overall Model Rank: #8

Percy is a major standout target from this range. He has gained strokes on the field in approach in nine consecutive starts, enters in with seven straight made cuts, and has finished T-23 and T-7 in the last two years at Silverado CC. If you’re spending the premium for Jon Rahm this week, you kinda need to also roster one or two golfers out of this range to make it work, and Percy is easily one of the most appealing value options out there.

Hayden Buckley | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.2k

Odds: 150/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A*

Overall Model Rank: N/A*

*Not enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data

When a large portion of players in this range consists of either golfers who have been struggling to maintain consistency on the PGA Tour for months/years now or golfers coming off of very successful seasons on the Korn Ferry Tour, I’ll side with the latter higher risk, higher upside newcomers like Buckley. Within his final five starts on the KFT, Buckley notched finishes of T4, T7, and T2. He showed strength through his ball striking, where he finished 3rd in the KFT this past season. He also checked in at 19th in Driving Accuracy and 2nd in Good Drive%. If that skillset transfers over into this week, it would seem as if Buckley should make for a strong course fit target.

Kevin Tway | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.9k

Odds: 200/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #50

Overall Model Rank: #34

When it comes to rolling out a complete punt, I’d say you could do much worse than Tway, who won this event in 2018 and has made six of his last seven PGA cuts with four top 30 finishes in that span. Given his relative cut-making consistency lately, I would consider Tway to be a fringe cash play if you’re looking to make room for a Rahm cash lineup (though, Cameron Percy would be preferred for $200 more in salary).

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

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Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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