By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

As the California swing continues, the PGA Tour sets its sights toward the Riviera Country Club just outside of Los Angeles in Pacific Palisades, CA for the 2021 Genesis Invitational. This event draws a very strong field pretty much every year and this go ‘round is no different. The strength of this field honestly comes close to that of a Major or WGC event. Sure, we're still waiting on Tiger to make his 2021 debut, but there are 16 of the world’s top 25 ranked golfers set to tee up this week as well as 54 of the top 100. Since this is an invitational, the field is a bit smaller than normal -- only 120 golfers will compete. We see a number of PGA tournaments with multiple courses in play around this time of year due to less daylight available. The smaller field for the Genesis Invitational will allow golfers to all compete on a single course this week -- in my opinion, that is a welcomed relief. The usual cut rule is also in effect once again with the top 65 players (and ties) after 36 holes moving on to play the weekend. With such a star-studded field, you’ll notice some extremely talented golfers priced way down from where they would normally be. Making lineups for this one should be fun! Feel free to get a bit risky in your GPPs since over half of the field is guaranteed to make the cut.

The Course Preview ⛳

Riviera CC is a longer Par 71 set up that extends 7,322 yards. This track tends to play as one of the tougher courses on Tour and ranked 10th in overall difficulty in 2020. It draws many comparisons to Augusta National (The Masters) and you could consider that to be a strong correlating course when researching golfers this week. Riviera CC was redesigned in 2008 and has since often favored guys who are long off the tee (aka ‘bombers’). Shorter hitters aren’t necessarily out of contention here but they will need to be very accurate with their longer irons to stand a chance at a top 10-25 finish. Personally I won’t be targeting many golfers who can’t routinely drive the ball at least 300+ yards. But, in this day and age, the majority of PGA golfers are capable of that distance off of the tee. The narrow tree-lined fairways are usually some of the hardest to hit on the PGA Tour. Fairway accuracy for the field is usually around 55% and there are several doglegged holes in play along with strategically placed fairway bunkers protecting the preferred landing zones. Fortunately the rough isn’t a death sentence for the most part and it can actually provide plenty of playable lies (further advantage to bombers). With six of the Par 4 holes stretching over 450 yards, expect long irons (175+ yards) to be vital as well. The greens here are above average in size, feature Poa Annua grass, and are well protected by a myriad of menacing bunkers and false fronts. Despite the above average square footage of the green complexes, the ideal landing zones to get the best looks at birdies are on the smaller side and the greens themselves should run quite firm and fast (between 12-13 on the stimpmeter). This will ultimately force golfers to be on top of their overall short game as well as many moderately accurate approach shots may still bleed off of the green.

The winning score here has been 11-under or lower the last five years, so we can still expect a fair amount of scoring, especially if the winds cooperate. But Riviera will absolutely not be a pushover and golfers will have to earn every birdie they get. Simply scoring par on some of these holes should be considered a win. The margin of victory here has been greater than two strokes just once in the last decade so expect this tournament to easily be one of the most tightly contested and entertaining events we’ve seen up to this point in the season! With that said, let’s get a more detailed look at the weather, the stats I will be keying in on, and some of my favorite plays for this week!

Weather ⛅

For full event DFS contests, the weather should be of little concern. The two rounds ahead of the cut should see really nice golf weather with cool temps in the 50s and 60s, plenty of sunshine, and (most importantly) very little wind. Things could get dicey on Saturday, primarily in the afternoon, with winds projected to reach 20-30 mph SUSTAINED with even stronger gusts. Meanwhile, Sunday conditions compare closer to the first two rounds.

Verdict: As of now, there is no wave advantage to be had on Thursday/Friday, but if you’re playing the single round contests on Saturday, the weather is something you’ll definitely want to keep in mind. As always, try to run a weather check Wednesday evening (or very early Thursday morning ahead of the first tee) before making any final decision. You can see the most up-to-date forecast by clicking on the image below.

Genesis Invitational Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 25%

2. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

5. Driving Distance | 15%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field for any given week.

CMR = Custom Model Rank; a player’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above *as well as* things like course history, recent form, and recent average fantasy scoring outputs.

Jon Rahm | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 12/1 | CMR: #4 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 4th SG: BS | 45th SG: ATG | 46th P4 AVG | 14th BoB% | 19th Driving Dist.

I feel like Rahm is slightly undervalued in relation to his DFS pricing considering he has the second best odds to win (tied with Rory), yet he is priced as the 4th most expensive option on DK and 3rd on FD. His course history isn’t extensive but in his two appearances at Riviera CC, Rahm has turned in a T17 (last year) and T9 (2019). He hasn’t missed a cut since the Charles Schwab Challenge back in June, which was the first event of the 2020 season restart where plenty of golfers showed some rust. Rahm is also averaging an 8th place finish over his last ten starts. His combination of length and accuracy off the tee should lead to plenty of favorable approach shots on this tricky course and I wouldn’t hesitate to anchor my lineups with him this week, though I slightly prefer him for GPPs.

Patrick Cantlay | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 14/1 | CMR: #6 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 26th SG: BS | 1st SG: ATG | 9th P4 AVG | 4th BoB% | 53rd Driving Dist.

After firing an opening round of 62 (-10) at Pebble Beach last week, Cantlay somewhat coasted through his final 54 holes shooting a 73 (+1), 70 (-2), and 68 (-4). He didn’t play poorly, necessarily, but it wasn’t incredible by any means. Despite the lackluster final three rounds (by his standards), he still managed to turn in a T3 result on Sunday. When Cantlay is in form, he is one of the most rock solid and dependable golfers in the world and he’s certainly riding some nice form at the moment. Over his last five starts, he is averaging a 7th place finish and he ranks 2nd in the field in average DraftKings fantasy points scored during that span. While he has missed two out of five cuts at Riviera, those two MCs came way back in 2012 & 2013 when he was nowhere near the golfer he is now. Over the last three seasons, Cantlay has made every cut here and turned in results of T17, T15, and T4. He is a magician around the greens and any of the mistakes he makes are usually isolated events and rarely compounded within a round. He isn’t necessarily a bomber but he should routinely hit it around 300-315 yards off of the tee, which is plenty of length for a golfer who excels in every other aspect of the game. Cantlay makes sense as an anchor to more balanced builds.

Mid-Priced Targets

Carlos Ortiz | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #8 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 63rd SG: BS | 28th SG: ATG | 13th P4 AVG | 10th BoB% | 35th Driving Dist.

I expect Ortiz to be a popular mid-range option this week, and rightfully so. He has four top 15 finishes in his last six starts, which includes a win at the Houston Open. On top of the strong recent form, he brings a very nice course history to the table. Ortiz has played at Riviera in four of the last six seasons. Not only has he made the cut in all four attempts, but he has also finished no worse than 26th and even landed a 9th place finish in 2019. While his ball striking could use some work, he still manages to rank 10th in BoB% and he excels at not dropping shots. He ranks 13th in the field in bogey avoidance and 1st in three-putt avoidance. Ortiz may not be a household name but I would look for him to hang tough in this stacked field and turn in another top 25 performance.

Cameron Tringale | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #15 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 40th SG: BS | 84th SG: ATG | 18th P4 AVG | 20th BoB% | 39th Driving Dist.

I’m not exactly highlighting any contrarian plays just yet. Tringale is another golfer in this salary range who should draw quite a bit of ownership, especially immediately following his T7 at Pebble Beach, which was his third consecutive top 20 finish in as many weeks. Tringale also brings a massive amount of course experience to the table. In nine starts at Riviera, he has missed the cut just once and he has turned in six finishes of T30 or better -- his best finishes being T8 (2017) and T12 (2014). His around the green play is a concern but he is dependable in every other aspect of his game right now so he’s a golfer that gives us ample reason to trust him this week. You can’t rely on golfers to consistently putt the lights out, but Tringale did lead the field last week gaining +6.30 strokes putting. Both Pebble Beach and Riviera feature poa annua greens.

Low-Priced Targets

Talor Gooch | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.7k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: #28 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 58th SG: BS | 53rd SG: ATG | 18th P4 AVG | 53rd BoB% | 44th Driving Dist.

Gooch is a standout GPP sleeper in the low salary range and I doubt his ownership exceeds the single digits. His recent form is a little sporadic but he does have a couple of top 5s on his 2020-21 season resume. Gooch has also shown up on both occasions at Riviera, finishing T10 last year and T20 in 2018. While he doesn’t crush the metrics, he ranks above average in every key stat I am focusing on for this course and he could definitely sneak in another top 25 finish at Riviera with potential for a backdoor top 10. Do approach with caution since he is about as likely to card a top 25 as he is to just straight up miss the cut.

Wyndham Clark | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.6k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: #14 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 78th SG: BS | 15th SG: ATG | 32nd P4 AVG | 32nd BoB% | 4th Driving Dist.

In relation to his DFS salaries, Clark rates out shockingly well in my Genesis Invitational player model. While I am hesitant to pin him as a cash viable play, I’m doing just that considering he has made seven of his last eight cuts and also snagged an excellent T17 finish in his Riviera debut last season. Clark is not your traditional tee to green conqueror that you would want to target on most PGA courses. But, by hook or by crook, his game should translate well at Riviera. He drives the ball further than just about everyone else on Tour and while his irons aren’t the most reliable, Clark is proficient around the greens and his poa annua putting splits rank 11th in the field. If he has an average or above average ball striking week, he is poised to outperform these salaries by a significant margin.

*** FanDuel Special ****

Brendan Steele | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: #29 | Cash & GPP *FanDuel Preferred*

Key Stat Ranks: 45th SG: BS | 40th SG: ATG | 55th P4 AVG | 56th BoB% | 44th Driving Dist.

While I'm not exactly against Steele as a play on DraftKings, I’m really only pointing him out here because he is mispriced by nearly $2,000 on FanDuel who has him as the stone cold minimum $7,000. For reference, his $7,100 price tag on DraftKings makes him the 53rd most expensive option. On FanDuel, he is the 110th most expensive golfer. Steele has made 7/9 cuts at Riviera CC throughout his career and he’s coming into this week with some fairly respectable form on the heels of four consecutive made cuts, finishing no worse than T34 and as high as T4 (Sony Open) in that span. If he simply makes the cut, he pays off his salary with ease on FanDuel and he would allow you to fit in three, perhaps even four, stud tier golfers depending on how cheap you decide to go with your other golfer(s).

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Dustin Johnson | DK: $11.3k, FD: $12.1k

Odds: 5.5/1 | CMR: #1 | Cash & GPP

I really don’t need to point out DJ, but just know that you shouldn’t hesitate to pay up for the highest priced golfer on the board. The fact that Vegas puts him at +550 to win this tournament, even in a loaded field, is wild. DJ has a win here (2017) and nine top 10s in 13 appearances. Not only is he the world's top player right now, but it also isn't exactly close.

Bryson DeChambeau | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 16/1 | CMR: #3 | GPP Preferred

Bryson is easily my least favorite guy to root for on the PGA Tour but on a course like Riviera CC, where bombers can thrive, he almost requires a mention. He leads the field in driving distance and in ball striking. He has also improved upon his finish in this tournament in each career appearance: T41 (2018), T15 (2019), T5 (2020).

Xander Schauffele | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 14/1 | CMR: #2 | Cash & GPP

Honestly, you should probably just start your cash lineup by clicking on this dude’s name. Following his T2 at the WMPO a couple of weeks ago, he extended his top 25 streak to 15 consecutive starts. Elite consistency is just him MO.

Bubba Watson | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #16 | GPP Preferred

If you’ve played PGA DFS long enough, you know that “Bubba tracks” are a thing. Considering he has won here three times in 14 starts, Riviera CC is a certified Bubba track. I actually think he’s a better outright bet at 40/1 than a DFS play, but obviously, he’s worth some GPP consideration.

Will Zalatoris | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #33 | GPP Preferred

With “stars & scrubs” being the favored approach this week (since many of the scrubs in this field aren’t exactly scrubs to begin with, only priced as such), this price range garners a lot of GPP appeal. Zalatoris was a popular option last week and turned in a disappointing T55. It wasn’t the first time he disappointed when he was chalky, so expect low ownership on him this week -- especially since he has super limited course history (MC in his lone appearance in 2015). His game can translate well here.

Cameron Davis | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #17 | GPP Preferred

He’s fairly “feast or famine” but his length (11th in Driv. Dist.), ball striking (18th in SG: BS), and birdie potential (7th in BoB%) give him a highly viable course fit narrative. Love him for GPPs and as an outright bet, especially since you can find him at 100/1 on some books.

Sam Burns | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.1k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #27 | Cash & GPP

His short game is suspect but he ranks 18th or better in SG: BS, P4 AVG, BoB%, and Driving Distance. Landed a top 25 here last year and I could see him doing it again.

Luke List | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: #21 | GPP Only

List is never a safe pick but his bomber profile will put him in play here for GPPs. He’s made the cut at Riviera 4/5 times and in those four made cuts he has finished no worse than T30. His recent form is also popping following three finishes of T30 or better which included a T10 at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Matthew NeSmith | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.4k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: #61 | GPP Preferred

He could probably be considered a fringe cash play but he’s definitely on my radar for tournaments following a T16 and T7 over the last two weeks. Outside of the elite names, he’s quietly one of the best ball strikers in the field (14th in SG: BS)… he just needs to get the flat stick to cooperate consistently. NeSmith ranked 4th in the field in SG: Tee to Green last week gaining a massive +8.30 strokes.

Jim Furyk | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.6k

Odds: 250/1 | CMR: #35 | GPP Preferred

One of the few short hitters I’m intrigued by this week (110th in Driv. Dist.) and the price has a lot to do with it. Yes, he’s 50 years old but his course history still stands strong. Furyk has made 12/15 cuts at Riviera CC and while he isn’t a threat to win, if he simply makes it past the cut line then he’s paying off these salaries. On FanDuel, I'd say you probably just roll with the $7k Brendan Steele punt, but on DraftKings, I don’t mind Furyk as a punt all too much.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Xander Schauffele

So I was a week early on Berger when I took him at the WMPO but my pick for Pebble Beach, Kevin Streelman, turned in a solid 13th place finish and $165,750 in winnings towards my OAD leaderboard. Not a home run hit and a little disappointing since Streelman was pushing for a top five finish prior to a late double bogey which knocked him back down on the Sunday leaderboard, but it's still a result that I'll take.

While you really do want to try to save your big boys for Majors, The Players, or WGC events… The Genesis Invitational carries a $9.3 million purse ($1.6m+ to 1st) which is one of the higher purses on the schedule (aside from those aforementioned tournaments). For that reason, I’m going to use Xander this week in hopes that he can reel in the win, but at the very least I know that he is almost certainly good for a top 25 finish (hopefully I didn't just jinx him). As mentioned above, he is riding a 15 start streak of top 25 finishes.

Other OAD picks I would consider: Bubba, Rory, Ortiz, Hovland, Finau, Scott, Tringale

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options that you still have available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the 2020-21 season.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd-3rd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.