Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions! 

Tournament & Field 🏆

Continuing the California swing, the PGA Tour sets its sights toward the Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, California for the Genesis Invitational. This event draws a very strong field pretty much every year and this go ‘round is no different. The strength of this field honestly borders close to a Major like The Masters. There are 19 of the world’s top 25 golfers set to tee up this week -- 57 of the top 100. There will be 120 players in the field for the Genesis Invitational and unlike last week, we don’t have to deal with Pro-Am shenanigans, multiple courses, or a non traditional cut rule. This week the top 65 players (and ties) after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend. With such a star-studded field, you’ll notice some extremely talented golfers priced way, way down from where they would normally be. Making lineups for this one should be fun!

The Course Preview ⛳

Riviera CC is a longer Par 71 set up that extends 7,322 yards. This track tends to play as one of the tougher courses on Tour. The course was redesigned in 2008 and has since often favored guys who are longer off the tee (aka ‘bombers’). Shorter hitters aren’t necessarily out of contention here but they will need to be very accurate with their longer irons to stand a chance at a high-end finish. The tree-lined fairways are usually some of the hardest to hit on TOUR (around 54%) but fortunately the rough isn’t a death sentence and can actually provide plenty of playable lies (further advantage to bombers). With six Par 4 holes stretching over 450 yards, expect long irons (175+ yards) to be vital as well. The greens here feature Poa Annua grass and are well protected by a myriad of menacing bunkers. Several of the green complexes are also quite small and will really test a golfer’s iron accuracy and around the green play. The winning score here has been 12-under or lower in five of the last six years, so we can still expect a fair amount of scoring, especially with the pristine weather conditions ahead. But Riviera will absolutely not present itself as a pushover this week. This should easily be one of the most tightly contested and entertaining events we’ve seen up to this point in the season! With that said, let’s get a more detailed look at the weather, the stats I will be keying in on, and some of my favorite plays for this week!

Genesis Invitational Tee Times

Weather ⛅

No need to spend much time here because the conditions for all four rounds appear to set up for some optimal golfing weather. Golfers will see plenty of sunshine, temps in the 50s/60s, and (most importantly) no real significant winds are expected to make their way across Riviera CC. The forecast can always change so, as usual, click the image below to see the most up-to-date outlook (useful for single round slates as well).

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: BS) | 35%

2. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 25%

3. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 20%

4. Driving Distance | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG) | 5%

High-Priced Targets

Rory McIlroy | DK: $11.6k, FD: $12.2k

Vegas: 8/1 | Custom Model Rank: #1

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

This is an absolutely stacked field teeing up this week but Rory just seems to be on another level than everyone else out there right now. He’s always had one of the most monstrous drivers on Tour but lately everything else in his game is beginning to catch up to his dominant off the tee play. His three 2019-20 PGA Tour starts have resulted in two T3s and a victory (WGC-HSBC Champions) and he is returning to Riviera CC where he has made 3/3 cuts including a 4th place finish last season. McIlroy has no weaknesses when it comes to my key stats for this course. In this field, Rory ranks 3rd in SG: BS, 11th in P4 AVG, 2nd in BoB%, 3rd in Driving Distance, and 3rd in SG: ATG. Simply dominant. It is no shocker that he carries the highest price tag on both sites this week, which will obviously make him a bit restrictive for cash game builds. However, when it comes to GPPs, fade the newly minted top ranked golfer in the world at your own risk!

Patrick Cantlay | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11.4k

Vegas: 20/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

I’m not looking to get too cute in this high-end tier and am simply highlighting the top two ranked golfers in my tournament model for this week. When it comes to a safe pick, there may not be more than a couple golfers in the world who could outdo Cantlay in that regard. In my mind, those two guys would be the golfer I just mentioned above (Rory) and Webb Simpson, who isn’t in the field this week. You have to go back nearly a year to the 2019 Players Championship to see a missed cut on Cantlay’s record and he has ran well at Riviera CC in each of the last two years with 15th and 4th place finishes. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with him on paper either. He ranks 5th in SG: BS, 1st in P4 AVG, 3rd in BoB%, 38th in Driving Distance, and 20th in SG: ATG. I imagine Cantlay will be the golfer many people choose to start their cash game builds with and I see absolutely nothing wrong with that! He’s in play across the board.

Mid-Priced Targets

Collin Morikawa | DK: $8.1k, FD: $10.1k

Vegas: 50/1 | Custom Model Rank: #20

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Morikawa may not have any course history at Riviera and he may not fit the bomber profile I’m leaning towards favoring, but he has shown up consistently week in and week out since turning pro. He has made all 18 of his cuts since the 2019 calendar year and he hasn’t finished outside the top 25 in five consecutive starts. The guy simply grinds out solid performances and molds his game to adapt to any course that gets put in front of him. He ranks 4th in SG: BS, 27th in P4 AVG, 28th in BoB%, 76th in Driving Distance, and 54th in SG: ATG. I expect his elite iron play to carry him to yet another strong finish this week.

Cameron Smith | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.5k

Vegas: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #32

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

It has been a bit of a feast or famine season for Cam Smith up to this point. In nine starts this season, he has missed a couple cuts and finished outside the top 50 two other times. However, he also has four top 15 results which includes a victory (Sony Open). After a T64 and an MC in his last two events, perhaps we’ll see him regain some form at a venue where he has found previous success. Smith has made the cut in all four of his starts at Riviera, highlighted by a 6th place finish in 2018. On the stat sheet, you’ll definitely realize why I’m only on board with him as a GPP play. He ranks 98th in SG: BS, 30th in P4 AVG, 24th in BoB%, 54th in Driving Distance, and 29th in SG: ATG. There are really no glaring concerns aside from the ball striking, but obviously that is the most important stat for this week. Smith does rank 5th in SG: Putting, which is how he has been able to overcome some poor ball striking and churn out some strong finishes this season, but you cannot rely on a golfer’s flat stick on any given week no matter who they are. So, once again, he’s a GPP only play for me but if he has a decent week in the ball striking department, a sneaky top 10 finish wouldn’t surprise me with this guy.

Low-Priced Targets

Alex Noren | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9.3k

Vegas: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #7

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Noren has finally broken out of his slump that plagued him throughout the 2018-19 season and has found some very fine form in recent months. He has just one missed cut across his last 17 worldwide starts (PGA + EURO Tours) and he has an average finishing result of 20th place in his five PGA starts this season. Noren’s course history is limited at Riviera but in his lone start here in 2018, he came away with a very respectable T16 finish. He looks fantastic on paper as well when you consider his value tier salaries. Noren ranks 27th in SG: BS, 23rd in P4 AVG, 23rd in BoB%, 55th in Driving Distance, and 6th in SG: ATG. He’s definitely setting up to be one of my favorite overall plays due to his affordability. Here’s to hoping Noren doesn’t give me a Furyk/Knox-like letdown like last week!

Carlos Ortiz | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.4k

Vegas: 200/1 | Custom Model Rank: #21

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Ortiz is definitely a standout golfer in these price ranges. He has made 8/10 cuts this season with three top 10s while also possessing some pretty solid course history. Ortiz has made the weekend in all three of his trips to Riviera CC, including a T9 finish last year. Not bad for a $6.8k/$8.4k guy! He has also not shown any major weakness in terms of my key stats this week. Ortiz ranks 51st in SG: BS, 22nd in P4 AVG, 40th in BoB%, 36th in Driving Distance, and 15th in SG: ATG. If you’re going after the Rory/Rahm/JT/Tigers of the world, you will almost definitely need at least one guy in this price range to help balance out your lineups to afford some high quality mid-range golfers. Ortiz is looking like a very viable punt, even for cash.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Justin Thomas | DK: $11k, FD: $12k

Vegas: 10/1 | CMR: #4 | Cash & GPP

Potentially a nice spot to get JT at lowered ownership as people either pay up for Rory/Rahm or go down to the Tiger/DJ/Cantlay range. Has the best ball striking stats in the field and has finished 2nd and 9th at Riviera the last two years.

Bubba Watson | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11.2k

Vegas: 22/1 | CMR: #16 | GPP Preferred

“Bubba courses” are a thing and with three victories here, Riviera CC definitely qualifies as a Bubba course. Coming in on the heels of a T3 and T6 and absolutely fits the bomber mold that Riviera can reward. Beware though, Bubba’s game can go sideways in an instant, so I don’t think I’d fully trust him for cash builds just yet.

Justin Rose | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.7k

Vegas: 40/1 | CMR: #33 | Cash & GPP

Kinda wild to see these middling salaries beside Justin Rose’s name but he is coming off of a MC at the Farmers Insurance Open and has otherwise been “out of sight, out of mind” on the PGA Tour recently. Still, Rose has very strong history at Riviera CC (9/10 cuts made, two top 10s) and is too good of a golfer to be this cheap.

Bryson DeChambeau | DK: $7.9k, FD: $10.2k

Vegas: 50/1 | CMR: #13 | GPP Preferred

DeChambeau is another elite name that hasn’t made a splash on American soil in a while and, as such, has seen a price decrease. He was crushing off the tee at the WMPO a couple weeks ago but his approach game struggled. If he can string his game together a bit better this week he could vastly outproduce these salaries. Would like to see a bit more solid long term form before I fully trust for cash games, however.

Corey Conners | DK: $7k, FD: $9.1k

Vegas: 100/1 | CMR: #27 | Cash & GPP

Excellent ball striker (ranks 6th in the field) and prior to his T45 in his last start, Conners had strung together six straight finishes of T20 or better. No course history at Riviera but definitely worth some consideration.

Patrick Rodgers | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.4k

Vegas: 200/1 | CMR: #68 | GPP Only

Popped off in a couple recent events (T16 @ WMPO, T9 @ Farmers) and has had a solid run at Riviera in recent years. Last three starts on this course: 15th (2019), 26th (2018), 22nd (2017). Averaging 312.6 yards off the tee this season so he also fits the bomber profile. Worthy GPP punt.

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That will do it for our Genesis Invitational preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week!

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