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Top PGA DraftKings & FanDuel Plays | Genesis Open ⛳️
Written by Ryan Humphries
Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!
The 2019 Genesis Open ⛳️
The Player Field & Tournament Course Preview
Continuing the California swing, the PGA Tour sets its sights towards the Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, California for the Genesis Open. This event draws a very strong field pretty much every year and this year is no different. There are 14 of the world’s top 20 golfers set to tee up this week. There will be 144 players in this field and unlike last week, we don’t have to deal with Pro-Am shenanigans, multiple courses, or a non traditional cut rule. This week, the top 70 players (and ties) after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend.
Riviera CC is a longer Par 71 set up that extends 7,322 yards. It often plays as one of the tougher courses on TOUR and last year it ranked as the 9th hardest track (out of 51). The course was redesigned in 2008 and has since tended to favor guys who are longer off the tee. Shorter hitters aren’t necessarily out of contention here but they will need to be accurate with their longer irons to stand a chance at a high finish. The weather this week is looking wet and windy, especially over the first couple of days, so bombers may have even more of an advantage as the course could end up playing even longer due to the conditions. The tree-lined fairways are usually some of the hardest to hit on TOUR (around 54%) and there are also a few smaller greens that players may struggle hitting in regulation. The winning score has been 12-under or lower in four of the last five years but given the weather concerns, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the winner finish under par in the single digits. With that said, let’s get a more detailed look at the weather, the stats I will be keying in on, and some of my favorite plays for this week!
Weather ⛅
For anyone new to PGA DFS, we take a look at the weather to see if there is an advantage to be had for either group of golfers teeing up Thursday morning/Friday afternoon (AM/PM wave) or the guys starting their rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning (PM/AM wave).
As I mentioned above, the weather will most definitely be affecting play this week. Rain is set to move in through the area Wednesday evening and continue well into Thursday for the first round. This could easily result in some delays in play and there is a high chance that guys will be finishing up their second rounds on Saturday. The winds for both Thursday and Friday (besides Fri. AM) look to have sustained speeds around 15 mph with gusts hitting 20-30 mph. If the rain wasn’t an issue, I would give an advantage to the PM/AM wave, as it seems they would deal with less harsh winds overall. However, with the heavy possibility of delays, it’s simply unclear to determine which wave may have a more favorable draw. Keep an eye on the forecast closer to Thursday morning. But for now, I wouldn’t let tee times factor into your decision making.
Top Stats to Consider* 📊
1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: BS) | 35%
2. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 30%
3. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 20%
4. Driving Distance | 10%
5. Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG) | 5%
*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentages I put on each category.
High-Priced Targets
Justin Thomas (DK: $11k | FD: $11.9k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
If you’re building a cash lineup, I don’t think it’s optimal to start with really any of the top five most expensive guys. But JT should definitely be on your radar for tournaments. Traditionally, he hasn’t been a guy who gets off to fast starts early in the season but he’s bucking that trend this year. He’s made 6/6 cuts this season with three top five finishes. He doesn’t have the course history at Riviera CC that you might prefer when paying up for a top tier option. He has made 4/4 cuts here but finished between 39th and 54th in his first three trips, however Thomas broke through last season with a very solid 9th place finish. Stats-wise, he solidifies himself as an elite option. In this field he ranks 1st in SG: BS, 6th in P4 AVG, 2nd in BoB%, 26th in Driving Distance and 52nd in SG: ATG. As a 12:1 favorite, he trails only Dustin Johnson as having the best odds to win and he comes up 3rd in my personal player model.
Xander Schauffele (DK: $9.4k | FD: $11.2k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
The X-Man should continue his highly successful season as he looks to make his second career start at Riviera CC after carding a 9th place finish in his debut appearance last year. He’s made 7/7 cuts to start the season while coming away with two wins and two additional top 10 finishes -- most recently a T10 in his last start two weeks ago at the Phoenix Open. Current form is definitely not a concern with him at the moment. He also ranks 34th in SG: BS, 21st in P4 AVG, 11th in BoB%, 41st in Driving Distance, and 9th in SG: ATG -- not extremely strong numbers when compared to his price but no real weaknesses either. Schauffele also tends to be pretty reliable on the greens as well and is 6th in the field in SG: Putting. As he has shown twice already this season, he is a major threat to win any event he tees up at and he’s a 22:1 favorite and ranks 6th in my player model. In my opinion, he comes at a slight discount on both DraftKings and FanDuel and I like the idea of starting off my cash game builds with Schauffele.
Mid-Priced Targets
Adam Hadwin (DK: $7.8k | FD: $9.7k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
I’ve been a bit hesitant to give Hadwin much consideration recently due to the lengthy stretch in which he struggled to find consistency towards the middle and end of last season, but his form really seems to be rounding into shape. After missing the first cut of the season at the Safeway Open back in early October, Hadwin has ripped off seven consecutive made cuts with three top 10’s and a T18 finish last week at Pebble Beach. He has some attractive course history at Riviera CC as well, making 4/4 cuts with finishes of 6th (2018), 34th (2017), 16th (2016), and 22nd (2015). I probably don’t mention it as often as I should but current form and course history are truly the top two “key stats” for any player in any given week and take precedent over everything else. Statistically, he ranks 31st in SG: BS, 49th in P4 AVG, 31st in BoB%, 75th in Driving Distance, and 105th in SG: ATG -- which I’m willing to overlook as an outlier. Sure, he is around the middle of the field average when it comes to driving distance but his reliable long irons should mitigate any disadvantage he may have off of the tee. Hadwin’s 50:1 odds are some of the best you will find among golfers in this price range and he should bring you some considerable top 20 upside at an affordable price. He’s 14th in my player model for the week.
Jason Kokrak (DK: $7.6k | FD: $9.2k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
It may be a bit too early to tell, but I’m expecting Kokrak to be one of the more popular options in the mid-tier. He’s just been playing really strong golf lately and has some quality course history. Kokrak has made 6/6 cuts this season with three consecutive top 20 finishes. He’s also made 6/7 cuts at Riviera CC with great showings in each of the last three years with finishes of 20th, 22nd, and 2nd. Kokrak did withdraw for undisclosed reasons ahead of last week’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am but I believe it’d be a stretch to assume it was for anything injury related and he likely just wanted an extra week off to rest after playing for three straight weeks. Also, what professional golfer really wants to play eight hour rounds in tough conditions in a Pro-Am? I’m loving how he sets up for this week, as he ranks 12th in SG: BS, 14th in P4 AVG, 15th in BoB%, 16th in Driving Distance, and 98th in SG: ATG. There are not many golfers in this field who hit it as long as Kokrak while also maintaining strong driving accuracy, ranking 40th hitting 64.5% of fairways. He may not be a major threat to win with 80:1 odds but all signs point towards a good outing from him this week and he is 9th in my player model.
Low-Priced Targets
Harold Varner III (DK: $7k | FD: $8.7k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Overall for this week, given the strong field, I think going with a balanced approach is ideal (primarily for cash games) so you may not want to get too cute with the low-priced options. However, HV3 has had some great showings this season and could very well be worth a look at Riviera CC. He’s been a bit “feast or famine” this season -- he has missed two cuts in nine starts but in weeks that he has played the weekend, he has finished no worse than 23rd. Varner hasn’t had immense success here but has made three cuts in four tries with his best finish coming in 2016 landing at 26th. Varner also has been playing some of the best golf of his career over the past year and should present plenty of upside this week. He ranks 41st in SG: BS, 21st in P4 AVG, 28th in BoB%, 19th in Driving Distance, and 35th in SG: ATG -- all around very solid. I think you can make a case for him to be viable in all formats and he ranks 20th in my player model.
KJ Choi (DK: $6.2k | FD: $7.2k)
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Choi is absolutely a Hail Mary of a pick that is directly tied to course history and essentially nothing else. Choi missed the first cut of his career at Riviera CC last year but prior to that he was a perfect 13/13 cuts made with four top 10 finishes! You absolutely will not find anyone in this price range with course history like that. Choi hasn’t played enough events recently for me to have any strokes gained data on him but he did make his first start of the season a couple of weeks ago at the Phoenix Open. While he did miss the cut, he only missed it by two strokes, so it’s not like he was out there tanking it. I mean, hell, he finished ahead of Tony Finau that week so clearly "Choi > Finau"? No. But Choi could still be a sneaky <3% owned punt play that could help you make some intriguing and unique star-studded GPP builds.
Quick Hits | Others to Consider
High-Priced
- Bubba Watson (DK: $9.7k | FD: $10.7k) | GPP Only | If you want a high end course horse then Bubba would be your man. He’s the defending champ here with three wins over the last five years at Riviera CC. Coming in with good form as well after a 4th place finish at the WMPO.
- Hideki Matsuyama (DK: $9.3k | $11.1k) | Cash & GPP | Hideki is rounding into the elite form that we’re used to seeing and should be another cheaper stud who is cash viable -- similar to Schauffele. He’s 3rd in SG: BS and 7th in Driving Distance. Finished 4th here in 2015.
Mid-Priced
- Tommy Fleetwood (DK: $8.6k | FD: $10.1k) | Cash & GPP | Fleetwood looked a bit shaky at times last week but a disastrous performance here would be a major surprise and you’re getting a world class golfer at a discount with these salaries. He’s not the longest off the tee (76th in driving distance) but he has some of the best long irons on the planet.
- Cameron Champ (DK: $7.6k | FD: $9.3k) | GPP Only | If you’re following the bomber narrative, you should consider Champ, as he has the longest driver in the field, averaging 319 yards! He’s made 9/10 cuts this season but missed the cut here last year in his only appearance, so I wouldn’t be confident in trusting him outside of GPPs this week.
Low-Priced
- Sung Kang (DK: $7.4k | FD: $8.9k) | GPP Only | Borderline cash play. Has three top 20 finishes in his last four events with an MC in between. Elite course history for the price -- 4/4 cuts made at Riviera CC with finishes of 16th, 22nd, and 8th over the last three years.
- Kyle Stanley (DK: $6.6k | FD: $8.4k) | GPP Only | Fallen out of form as of late with two consecutive missed cuts but no one will be on him this week. He’s the 39th ranked player in the world and is priced alongside guys who barely crack the top 200-300 in the world rankings. We’ll see if he can find his groove again after taking a couple weeks off.
Weekly Bets
This is a new addition so feel free to let me know if it should stick around or not. I’ll simply run through what I’m liking from a betting perspective each week. Golf betting is a bit risky, especially when it comes to betting outright winners. So if you're new to it, use caution! Hitting an outright winner can result in very nice profits, however. All outright, first round leader, top 5 and top 10 bets are one unit each. Units on tournament match-up bets are further specified. All odds are from Bovada as of Tuesday afternoon.
We’ll be hosting a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!
Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.
That will do it for our Genesis Open preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week!
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