By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

After a one-month stretch away from American soil, the PGA Tour returns stateside for the Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open which will be hosted at Memorial Park Golf Course in Houston, TX. The 132-player field will check-in at medium strength with 42 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers in attendance this week. The traditional cut rule will also be in place, so the top 65 golfers (including ties) after 36 holes will make it past the cut line and into the weekend to compete for a victory! 

The Course Preview ⛳

Memorial Park Golf Club is a lengthy Par 70 set up which will extend around 7,412 yards. This course also hosted this tournament last year but prior to that, it had not made an appearance on the PGA Tour since the ‘60s! Memorial Park GC was redesigned in 2019 by golf course architect Tom Doak with consultation from PGA pro Brooks Koepka. Course history is obviously lacking with just one year’s worth of data available, but given its length as a Par 70, don’t expect this track to be a pushover. Memorial Park GC ranked as the 8th most difficult course on the PGA Tour circuit last season and the cut line was 3-over par!

This is a nontraditional Par 70 course as it features five Par 3s and three Par 5s and is one of the longest courses on the PGA Tour. Memorial GC is a parkland-style course (like Augusta National GC) with treelined fairways that are above average in width. There are only 19 bunkers in play while water hazards will affect only four holes. Despite the lack of traditional hazards, there are other natural hazards (like ravines) which golfers will need to avoid. The rough shouldn’t be too tall (about 3”) but can be thick and difficult to play out of in many spots. The Bermuda grass greens are average in size as well and the feeling is that they will be receptive and play fairly soft this week. This will likely be a tournament where bombers will have an advantage. Golfers will also need to be creative and gain strokes around the greens as they proved difficult to manage last year. All in all, expect this course to provide golfers with a fairly difficult challenge. Last year’s winner, Carlos Ortiz, finished with a score of 13-under and only three golfers reached double-digit scores under par. I would expect a similar outcome this week.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Temperature and Rain: Temps will be comfortable, mostly in the 60s and 70s all week. It doesn’t appear as if the rain will be much of an issue either, with the exception of some rainfall early Thursday morning.

Wind: Sustained wind speeds aren’t expected to get too far above 10 mph all week, so that’s a good thing. However, wind gusts could be problematic at times as speeds hit 20-25 mph intermittently. Looking at the more detailed wind forecast for the first two rounds (pictured below), these gusts and overall wind speeds appear to peak on Thursday afternoon and Friday morning.

Verdict: If those gusts hold true, I believe we can give a bit of a weather advantage to the AM/PM wave. 

HPE Houston Open Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

2. Par 4 Average | 15%

3. Driving Distance | 15%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 15%

5. Par 5 Average | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 10%

7. Long Iron Accuracy (Proximity from 175+ Yards) | 10%

Houston Open Model Standouts

Below are the top 10 ranked golfers in both my key stats model (targeting the stats listed above) and overall model (takes into account key stats along with different weights on recent form, course history, Vegas odds, and recent fantasy points scored). This doesn’t mean these are the top 10 golfers I’m targeting, but many of these guys should be favorable DFS options this week.

Top 10 Golfers - Key Stats Only

1. Tony Finau

2. Mito Pereira

3. Sam Burns

4. Talor Gooch

5. Aaron Wise

6. Harold Varner III

7. Sungjae Im

8. Sahith Theegala

9. Matthew Wolff

10. Russell Henley

Top 10 Golfers - Overall Model Rank

1. Sam Burns

2. Talor Gooch

3. Aaron Wise

4. Sungjae Im

5. Tony Finau

6. Harold Varner III

7. Adam Scott

8. Maverick McNealy

9. Russell Henley

10. Cameron Smith

High-Priced Targets

Key Stats Only Rank; Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated towards each metric.

Overall Model Rank; a golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Matthew Wolff | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 25/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #9

Overall Model Rank: #17

Wolff struggled with mental health issues through a large portion of last season and that really did seem to affect his game. It would seem as though he has now gotten past whatever issues were burdening him and he’s off to a strong start in the 2021-22 season with finishes of T-17, 2nd, and T-5. Over his last six starts, he has gained more total strokes than any other golfer in this field. While he didn’t compete on this course last season, his game should be able to translate well to Memorial Park GC as he leads the field in driving distance and he’s been getting it done on and around the greens as of late, as well. His prices are certainly getting up there but I’d certainly keep Wolff in mind for GPPs.

Talor Gooch | DK: $9.3k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 25/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #4

Overall Model Rank: #2

Talor Gooch is red hot and checks in with some of the best recent form in the field this week. Over his last four starts, he’s averaging an 8th place finish and he returns to Memorial Park GC where he landed a T-4 result last season. He’s not the longest of drivers but he can typically hit it around 300 yards off the tee, which will be serviceable this week. His long irons have been solid and he’s crushing the Par 5s (2nd in P5 AVG). He’s a golfer we can trust once again out of this higher end salary range.

Aaron Wise | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 28/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #5

Overall Model Rank: #3

Wise is another golfer coming into Houston in excellent form. He’s averaging a 14th place finish over his last five starts along with 105.9 DKFP, which ranks 3rd in this field behind only Sungjae Im (111.0 DKFP Last 5 Starts) and Sam Burns (108.6 DKFP Last 5 Starts). Wise will check in considerably cheaper than both of those guys and also posted a strong T-11 finish here at Memorial Park GC last season. Wise’s ball striking has been on point lately and he has been extremely efficient around the greens (5th in SG: ATG). Wise is decently long off the tee (35th in Driving Distance) and if he can simply find some consistency with the flat stick (86th in SG: Putting), he could easily push for another top 10 finish, perhaps even a win.

Mid-Priced Targets

Maverick McNealy | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 33/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #18

Overall Model Rank: #8

McNealy has missed only one cut in his last 13 starts while posting ten top 30 finishes in that stretch. He returns to Memorial Park GC where he finished T-20 a season ago. He hasn’t been doing any one or two things particularly well, but he’s simply been solid and efficient with his all-around game. Some of the best attributes to his game include a fairly long driver (29th in Driving Distance), overall strength off the tee (18th in SG: OTT), and his iron accuracy from 200+ yards out (6th in Prox. 200+ Yards). While I wish he drew a better tee time, McNealy should make for a worthy target out of this upper mid-range this week.

Harold Varner III | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #6

Overall Model Rank: #6

I had HV3 highlighted as a mid-range selection last week and unfortunately, he ended up missing the cut… by only one stroke! In his five starts prior to last week at Mayakoba, Varner finished T-32, T-11, T-16, T-12, and T-11. He notched a 15th place finish on this course last season and, as you can see by him ranking 6th in the field in both the key stats model and overall model, I’d say he’s worth keeping in consideration once again. He’s an excellent bounce back candidate this week and is priced very fairly as the 26th (DK) and 25th (FD) most expensive golfer on the board.

Chad Ramey | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 80/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #30

Overall Model Rank: #24

Ramey is a bit of an unknown quantity at the PGA level as he has made only four career PGA starts. However, he’s made the cut in his last three, including eyebrow-raising finishes of T-17 and T-14 in the last two. Before coming over to the PGA Tour, Ramey was crushing it on the Korn Ferry Tour with a slew of Top 10s and Top 20s as well as a victory back in June. It’s a smaller sample size, but Ramey has been scoring extremely well on Par 4s (12th in P4 AVG) and par 5s (3rd in P5 AVG) and ranks 6th in overall BoB%. My only concern here is whether or not he has the distance to compete on this course as he only checks in with an average driving distance of 290.9 yards this season. If he can get a bit more ‘oomph’ when swinging the big stick, I like Ramey’s chances at a sneaky top 25 finish.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Charley Hoffman | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 80/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #23

Overall Model Rank: #28

Hoffman is another golfer who missed the cut on the number last week, but prior to that he had made his previous seven cuts in a row, as well has 20 of his last 21. He hasn’t had a ‘splashy’ finish in a while, but in a medium strength field with these lower-end salaries (36th most expensive golfer on DK, 40th on FD), even if he just pushes for around a 25th - 30th place finish, I think we can be happy with that. I do believe there is enough upside for Hoffman in tournaments, but it’s understandable if you’d view him as more of a cash play.

Henrik Norlander | DK: $7k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 100/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #35

Overall Model Rank: #25

At his price points, Norlander brings some strong cut equity to the table having missed only one cut in his last 11 starts. He also provides some notable upside, with a pair of top five finishes within his last seven starts. Norlander’s game is anchored by strong approach play (9th in SG: App) and excellent long iron accuracy. While this course will be challenging, Norlander could easily come through with 10x value by the time it’s all said and done.

Denny McCarthy | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.1k

Odds: 125/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #77

Overall Model Rank: #64

McCarthy rarely ‘pops’ on paper because his game is so heavily dependent on his short game. However, he is starting to show a more well-rounded game lately which has led to T-15 and T-17 finishes within his last four starts. McCarthy is also arguably the best putter in the world when it comes to Bermuda grass greens, which he’ll of course get to roll it on this week. If he simply stays near even to the field with his ball striking numbers, McCarthy could come away with another high-end finish in Houston. He had a decent T-38 result on this course a year ago.

Others to Consider

High-Priced:

Sam Burns | DK: $11.1k, FD: $12k | GPP Preferred

Cameron Smith | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.6k | GPP Preferred

Brooks Koepka | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.4k | GPP Only

Joaquin Niemann | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.8k | Cash Preferred

Mid-Priced:

Russell Henley | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.8k | GPP Preferred

Seamus Power | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.8k | Cash & GPP

Mackenzie Hughes | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.6k | Cash & GPP

Low-Priced/Punts:

Taylor Pendrith | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.6k | Cash & GPP

Wyndham Clark | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.4k | GPP Preferred

Paul Barjon | DK: $6k, FD: $7k | GPP Preferred

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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