Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions! 

Tournament & Field 🏆

Get ready to strap yourselves in for a very challenging “grind it out” week of golf. The PGA Tour travels to the East Coast to begin the Florida swing in Palm Beach Gardens where the Champions Course at PGA National will play host to The Honda Classic for the 14th consecutive year. Take note of this coastal shift, as the first tee is now going to begin at 6:45 am ET. After a smaller, but ultra-elite field competed in last week’s WGC-Mexico Championship, which was a no-cut event, we’ll revert back to a more typical-sized field of 144 players with a 36-hole cut where the top 65 (and ties) will move on to play the weekend. The talent drop off from last week is pretty substantial, as Brooks Koepka (#3), Tommy Fleetwood (#12), and Justin Rose (#13) are the only top 15 ranked golfers in the field competing this week. There are still some talented guys playing this week, however, as 29 of the top 100 ranked golfers in the world will be in attendance. Considering the grueling nature of this difficult course, the transition from the West to the East Coast, and The Players Championship now just two weeks away, it is not surprising to see that many top golfers chose to skip out on this event. Regardless, this should be a fun one to watch, as golfers will be truly tested and it’s a great week to get familiar with some less recognizable names.

The Course Preview ⛳

Looking at the course, PGA National (Champions Course) is a Par 70 that checks in at a moderate distance of 7,140 yards. The difficulty of this course cannot be understated. Since PGA National began hosting this event in 2007, it has ranked inside the top 10 toughest courses on the PGA Tour in 10 out of 13 years. Last year, PGA National ranked as the 5th most difficult course and in six of the last seven years the winning score has not been lower than 9-under. The infamous stretch on holes 15/16/17, known as The Bear Trap, is annually one of the hardest three hole stretches on the PGA Tour. Holes 5/6/7 on the front nine is an extremely difficult stretch of holes as well and actually played tougher than The Bear Trap last year. If golfers can play those six holes close to even par, they will gain a massive edge on the field. When you’re following along with your golfers on TV coverage or ShotTracker, keep your jaw, fists, and whatever else clinched when they approach those two parts of the track!

What can often add to PGA National’s formidable nature tends to be how much wind can have an impact. Looking at early forecasts, things could certainly get dicey out there as some brisk winds will almost certainly come into play. The rough here is thick and tough to play out of. Hazards are a heavy course defense here as water will come into play on 13 holes and the course features nearly 100 sand traps. Driving distance isn’t really important this week and we can expect for many golfers to club down off of the tee in order to avoid taking their golf ball for a swim or losing it in the wind and landing in a bunker or a tricky area off of the fairway. Approach shots will once again reign supreme and strong iron play will be absolutely essential. While golfers will certainly need to take advantage of the Par 5s, there are only two of them on this Par 70 setup, so I’ll be looking heavily at strong Par 4 scorers as well. Golfers who excel at avoiding bogeys could also be at a premium considering the winning score is very likely to end in the single digits under par. One more significant change for golfers heading into PGA National is the fact that they’ll be transitioning to Bermuda greens which can typically run firmer and faster than the Poa Annua greens which have been in play on many of the recent West Coast courses. There are plenty of challenges ahead for these guys. So with all that said, let’s take a look at the weather, key stats to consider, and my favorite golfers to target for this week!

Weather ⛅

As mentioned above, wind can really add an extra level of difficulty to an already tough course and it looks like it could cause some issues this week. On Thursday, sustained winds will hover around 15 mph all day with gusts projected to hit around 20 mph in the morning. Conditions on Friday calm down a bit as sustained wind speeds should be around 8-12 mph with 15 mph gusts (only in the morning). Giving an advantage to either wave is too close to call for right now, but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if an edge develops once we get closer to Thursday morning.

As usual, for normal four round DFS contests, I really only worry about the weather for the first two rounds. But quickly looking to the weekend, Saturday could be the trickiest round of the week with 13-15 mph sustained winds and upwards of 25 mph gusts. Sunday looks like the calmest round with <10 mph winds most of the day. No major threats of rain or extreme temperatures are a concern at any point this week.

Click the image below to be taken to the most up-to-date forecast page.

Honda Classic Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

2. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 25%

3. Bogey Avoidance | 20%

4. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 15%

5. Scrambling | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Gary Woodland | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.3k

Vegas: 22/1 | Custom Model Rank: #1

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Woodland stands out as a very strong golfer to start off builds in all formats, especially as a cash game anchor. He has four top 15 finishes in seven starts this year and he has made all seven of his cuts at PGA National with a couple top 10s to boot. Woodland is an excellent golfer to target on tougher courses and he checks in very well across the board in all five of my key stats for the week. In this field, Woodland ranks 21st in SG: App, 26th in P4 AVG, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance, 10th in BoB%, and 30th in Scrambling. While Fleetwood, Koepka, and Fowler are all enticing options at the top, I’d likely prefer all those guys as GPP options. Woodland should be in play across the board and I love his ability to avoid big numbers, which will be an issue for a ton of guys this week.

Sungjae Im | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.7k

Vegas: 33/1 | Custom Model Rank: #6

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

 Sungjae Im, a LineStar Weekly Drive mainstay, earns yet another worthy mention this week. On a very ‘grind it out’ kinda course, give me Sungjae all day, as he has simply proven himself to be one of the best PGA grinders out there. Im has made 11/12 cuts on the season and tends to thrive in these sort of events where the field isn’t extremely strong. He finished T51 at PGA National last year in what was his Honda Classic debut and I’m obviously going to expect far more from him this go ‘round. Im checks off all of the boxes this week, as he ranks 27th in SG: App, 5th in P4 AVG, 22nd in Bogey Avoidance, 6th in BoB%, and 32nd in Scrambling. Im, who has been a very solid putter this season (16th in SG: Putting) rolls it very well on Bermuda grass greens, ranking 2nd in the field in SG: Putting on Bermuda (last 24 rounds). If you’re looking for a cheaper high-end anchor for your lineups, I can’t find many reasons to go against Sungjae Im this week.

Mid-Priced Targets

Harris English | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.8k

Vegas: 66/1 | Custom Model Rank: #3

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

English was a hot early season commodity when he notched four finishes of T6 or better across his first five starts of the season but his form began to taper off. We last saw English compete about four weeks back at the WMPO where he landed a strong T16 finish, so even though he has taken a little time off, it’s encouraging to see the form rounding back into shape. He has made the cut at PGA National in 4/6 trips, with his best finishes being 12th (2019) and 18th (2012). So there is definite top 25 appeal when it comes to course history. On the stat sheet, English ranks 16th in SG: App, 2nd in P4 AVG, 1st in Bogey Avoidance, 32nd in BoB%, and 9th in Scrambling. In 34 rounds this season (612 holes), English has bogeyed just 9.64% of the time. As I’ve mentioned, that is a skill that can absolutely come in handy this week. Harris is a guy who plays very well out of the rough (5th in Good Drive %) and he ranks 2nd in Greens in Regulation. I’m expecting good things out of him down in Florida.

Maverick McNealy | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.7k

Vegas: 80/1 | Custom Model Rank: #13

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

I feel like I may be testing my luck and jinxing this guy, but as long as McNealy keeps making cuts and outperforming his DFS salaries, I feel compelled to keep highlighting him. McNealy has ripped off 10 consecutive made cuts and in that time he has averaged a 30th place finish. In this strong 10 start stretch he has jumped over 200 spots in the Official World Golf Rankings (now #256). There are a couple factors that do give me a bit of pause on him, which is why I’m not overly confident in him for cash builds. The first being that this is his first career start at PGA National and will most definitely be the toughest course he has competed on professionally. The second thing that I’m a bit concerned about is the fact that he has largely relied upon his putter, as he ranks 9th in the field in SG: Putting while his irons have been sub-par, at best. Per the key stats, McNealy ranks 92nd in SG: App, 9th in P4 AVG, 19th in Bogey Avoidance, 4th in BoB%, and 7th in Scrambling. If he was just a bit better on his approach shots, he’d probably be one of my highest owned golfers this week. Regardless, he’s a great option for GPPs. If he can continue to scramble well to make up for his errant approach shots while taming these tough PGA National greens, he could definitely sneak in a top 20 finish and I wouldn’t be shocked in the least.

Low-Priced Targets

Matthew NeSmith | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.9k

Vegas: 80/1 | Custom Model Rank: #11

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Like McNealy, NeSmith is another young PGA Tour rookie who will be making his PGA National debut and this guy has simply been rock solid dating back several months now. NeSmith has made seven consecutive cuts with five top 30 finishes in that span and he enters into the week off of a T6 at last week’s alternate PGA event, the Puerto Rico Open. In this field, he has averaged the 2nd most DraftKings fantasy points over the last five events. NeSmith is looking very solid on paper as well, where he ranks 37th in SG: App, 33rd in P4 AVG, 6th in Bogey Avoidance, 21st in BoB%, and 29th in Scrambling. The fact that NeSmith’s iron play is a bit more polished than the aforementioned McNealy will give me a bit more confidence in him in cash games and he could really help you get two, possibly three, higher-end golfers into your lineup.

Sam Burns | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.5k

Vegas: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #74

Cash Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

As you can tell, Burns is absolutely a GPP-only play for me but there’s plenty of boom/bust potential to be had here. In his course debut in 2018, Burns played himself into a final Sunday round pairing with Tiger Woods and went on to secure a very strong T8 finish. While he did make the cut in his return to PGA National last year, things didn’t pan out well for him, as he landed just a 73rd place finish. He lands at #74 in my tournament model for this week for a reason -- his strokes gained stats are pretty abysmal and really aren’t worth mentioning. But the last time we saw Burns was at The Genesis Invitational a couple weeks back where he finished T23 and gained strokes on approach and off the tee, as well as on the greens. To his credit, Burns is a very good putter on Bermuda greens, ranking 10th in the field in SG: Putting on Bermuda (last 24 rounds). As long as he doesn't get too wild off the tee and keeps up the solid iron play that he had at the Genesis, Burns could pay off handsomely in this price range.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Brooks Koepka | DK: $11.2k, FD: $12k

Vegas: 12/1 | CMR: #33 | GPP Preferred

 Obviously the form is way off for Brooks right now but he is perpetually one of the best golfers to target on difficult courses -- why do you think he crushes so many Majors? It’s no guarantee he steps up this week, as sometimes it seems like he only dominates when he feels like it. But he’s a scary dude to fade. Also, he ranks 1st in the field in SG: Putting on Bermuda (L24 Rds.).

Viktor Hovland | DK: $9.5k, FD: $11k

Vegas: 28/1 | CMR: #12 | GPP Preferred

I am always a little hesitant to trust guys coming off of a win in the previous week, especially when it’s their first professional win. But Hovland could certainly be worth his salt this week, as he ranks 17th or better in the field in SG: App, P4 AVG, Bogey Avoidance, and BoB%. One of the most promising young golfers in the world is worth some shares this week, preferably in GPPs.

Daniel Berger | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.6k

Vegas: 33/1 | CMR: #8 | Cash & GPP

Berger finished up his West Coast swing strong with back-to-back top 10 finishes, so the form is looking very appealing. He’s flashed some upside at PGA National with a 2nd place finish in 2015 and he ranks top 10 in the field in both BoB% and Scrambling.

Byeong Hun An | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.5k

Vegas: 33/1 | CMR: #5 | Cash & GPP

 An is $100 cheaper than Berger on both sites and carries the same odds to win but I felt compelled to give him a mention regardless. He’s made the cut in both of his starts on this course, including a 5th place finish in 2018. Strong upside with four top 10s already this season. He ranks 25th or better in 4-of-5 key stats (P4 AVG, Bogey Avoidance, BoB%, Scrambling).

Lee Westwood | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.5k

Vegas: 80/1 | CMR: #72 | GPP Preferred

I haven’t really mentioned a course horse yet, so Westwood gets the nod as he comes off of a solid T22 at the WGC-Mexico Championship last week. He hasn’t played here since 2015 but he has made 6/6 cuts at PGA National, including three top 10s.

Stewart Cink | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.6k

Vegas: 250/1 | CMR: #15 | Cash & GPP

I’m a bit nervous about this suggestion but where else are you gonna find a guy this cheap who has made 9/9 cuts on this very tough course? He ranks 6th in SG: App and 50th or better in P4 Scoring, BoB%, and Bogey Avoidance. If he simply makes the cut, he pays off these salaries.

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That will do it for our Honda Classic preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week!

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