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Top PGA DraftKings & FanDuel Plays | The Honda Classic ⛳️
Written by Ryan Humphries
Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!
The Player Field & Course Preview
Hello again golf fans! Get ready to strap yourselves in for a very challenging “grind it out” week of golf. The PGA Tour travels to the East Coast to begin the Florida swing in Palm Beach Gardens, FL where the Champions Course at PGA National will play host to The Honda Classic for the 13th consecutive year. After a smaller, but ultra-elite field competed in last week’s WGC Mexico Championship that had no cut, we’ll revert back to a more typical-sized field of 144 players with a 36-hole cut where the top 70 (and ties) will move on to play the weekend. The talent drop off from last week is pretty substantial and fairly top-heavy, as Justin Thomas (#3), Brooks Koepka (#4), and Rickie Fowler (#9) represent the only golfers teeing up this week that rank inside the OWGR Top 20. There are still some talented guys playing this week, however, as 17 of the top 60 and 33 of the top 100 ranked golfers in the world will be in attendance. Considering the grueling nature of this course and THE PLAYERS Championship moved up in the schedule (now just two weeks away), it’s not surprising to see that many top golfers chose to sit out this event.
Looking at the course, PGA National is a Par 70 that isn’t overly long, at 7,140 yards. The difficulty of this course cannot be understated, as it has ranked inside the top 10 (of 51) toughest courses in 9 out of 12 years in which The Honda Classic has been played here (since 2007). Last year, PGA National ranked as the 2nd most difficult course, playing at an average of +2.3 strokes over par and had a cut line of +6 with a winning score of 8-under. The infamous stretch of holes 15/16/17, known as The Bear Trap, is one of the hardest three-hole stretches on TOUR. Holes 5/6/7 on the front nine rival The Bear Trap’s difficulty as well. If golfers can play those six holes anywhere close to even par, they will have a massive edge on the field. When watching the golfers in your lineups on TV coverage or following along on ShotTracker, keep your jaw, fists, and whatever else clinched when they approach those two parts of the track.
A major contributor to PGA National’s arduousness many years tends to be how much wind plays into the equation. Looking at early forecasts, I don’t believe any weather issues (wind included) should be too troublesome, so maybe we will see some lower scores than what we're used to here. The rough is thick and tough to play out of and with so many water hazards and sand traps to navigate, expect a lot of clubbing down off the tee. Quality approach shots will once again reign supreme and, with just two Par 5’s, I’ll be looking heavily at Par 4 scoring as well. Another reason for optimism in terms of this course playing a bit easier than in years past is a recent renovation that added over 14,000 square feet of putting surface -- or about 800 square feet per green. With that new aspect to the course along with players clubbing down, I’ll be looking for guys who are accurate long iron players, as the vast majority of approach shots will come from 150+ yards out. With all that said, let’s take a look at the weather, key stats to consider, and my favorite targets for this week!
Weather ⛅
For anyone new to PGA DFS, we take a look at the weather to see if there is an advantage to be had for either group of golfers teeing up Thursday morning/Friday afternoon (AM/PM wave) or the guys starting their rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning (PM/AM wave). The top priority in PGA DFS should be getting 6/6 golfers in your lineups through the cut line -- so if there is an edge to be had for either wave it is important to take advantage!
For the first two rounds of golf this week, I’d say conditions set up very nicely. Temperatures will be in the 70's throughout Thursday and Friday and the winds should stay calm, especially by Florida coastal standards. Winds should sustain in the single digits with seemingly no major threat of significant gusts. There is some rain forecasted to be pushing through the area Wednesday evening and into the night, so the AM/PM wave should see softer course conditions and more receptive greens when they tee off Thursday morning. For that reason, I will give the AM/PM wave a slight advantage. Nothing necessarily to completely focus your lineups on but if you are up in the air on two guys at similar price points and one is in the AM/PM wave while the other isn’t, I’d give the nod to the former option. As always, check the forecast as close to lock as possible for final decision making in case there are some unexpected changes!
Click the image above for the latest forecast
Top Stats to Consider* 📊
1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%
2. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 30%
3. Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%) | 20%
4. Bogey Avoidance | 10%
5. Long Iron Accuracy - Proximity 150+ Yards | 10%
*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentages I put on each category. Also, course history and current form are always the top two "stats" to consider in any given week.
High-Priced Targets
Gary Woodland (DK: $9.8k | FD: $11k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
I’m opting to skip mentioning any of the top three priced guys (Thomas, Fowler, and Koepka) as they are essentially in their own tiny tier of elite options and are the clear class of the field. Instead, I am starting off with Woodland, who has popped up in these write-ups perhaps ad nauseam. Outside of an MDF at the Sony Open, he has been nothing but consistent at an elite level, racking up seven top 10’s in ten starts this season. Woodland is also a perfect 6/6 in cuts made at PGA National with his best finish being a runner-up in 2017. He enters into this week after producing a strong 17th place finish at the WGC Mexico Championship which, of course, was a supremely strong field that featured nearly every single top 50 ranked golfer in the world. He checks off all the boxes in my key stats, where he ranks 13th in SG: App, 5th in P4 AVG, 2nd in BoB%, 26th in Bogey Avoidance, and 8th in Long Iron Accuracy. My only real hesitation with him may be the potential fatigue factor due to how much golf he has been playing this year. But he did take three weeks off prior to last week, so I’m not overly concerned. Otherwise, I’d look for him to fare well in a somewhat weaker field and he would seem like a nice target to start off with when building more balanced cash lineups. His 18:1 odds to win are the sixth best in the field and he ranks 2nd in my personal player model.
Daniel Berger (DK: $9.4k | FD: $10.4k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
Berger is a favorite target of mine at the top of pricing that I assume will go a bit under-owned this week. Most recently, he rallied on the weekend in last week’s Puerto Rico Open to land a 2nd place finish. This gives me some confidence in him heading into The Honda Classic after missing the cut in his two prior events before the Puerto Rico Open. His results at PGA National are a bit hit or miss as he had a runner-up finish in his 2015 season -- when he won PGA Tour Rookie of the Year honors -- while following that up with missed cuts in 2016 and 2017, then finished 29th last year. He ranks 14th in SG: App, 42nd in P4 AVG, 35th in BoB%, 3rd in Bogey Avoidance, and 1st in Long Iron Accuracy. In a week where we shouldn’t expect very low scores, Berger’s bogey avoidance stands out in a big way to me. In 12 rounds of golf this season, he is averaging just 1.75 bogeys per round. He’s also a Florida native and it never hurts to give a strong look at golfers who grew up nearby the tournament venue for any given week. I’d prefer to have seen a bit more consistency with him lately if I were to consider him for cash formats but I think he makes for an excellent GPP target. Berger has 33:1 odds and ranks 19th in my model.
Mid-Priced Targets
Scott Piercy (DK: $8.1k | FD: $10k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Piercy missed the cut in his first start of the season at the Safeway Open but has since reeled off nine consecutive made cuts including four top 10’s and two additional top 20 finishes. Piercy’s course history isn’t elite but, given the difficulty of PGA National over the years, very few golfers have a consistently strong track record here. Still, it isn’t too shabby, as he’s made 4/6 cuts on this course -- most recently finishing 17th last year with his best finish coming in 2009 in the way of a 5th place result. Piercy also looks good on paper heading into this week, as he ranks 21st in SG: App, 8th in P4 AVG, 13th in BoB%, 12th in Bogey Avoidance, and 53rd in Long Iron Accuracy. He is a bit better of a value on DraftKings as the 22nd most expensive player (14th in FanDuel) but, to me, he is in play across the board and I could easily see a top 15 performance on the horizon. He has 55:1 odds and checks in at 7th in my model.
Russell Knox (DK: $7.8k | FD: $9.7k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Similar to Piercy, Knox missed the cut at the Safeway Open to begin the season but he has gone on to play the weekend in every start since. Knox’s 39th place finish in Mexico last week isn’t a great result but he also didn’t necessarily play poorly in any particular aspect. He also has three top 20’s in his last five starts, so his overall recent form is quite strong and I expect it to carry over to The Honda Classic. He has missed the cut at PGA National for the last two seasons but in the three years prior he had finishes of 26th, 3rd and 2nd, so he has had his fair share of success on this track. He ranks 36th in SG: App, 41st in P4 AVG, 86th in BoB%, 20th in Bogey Avoidance, and 6th in Long Iron Accuracy. The BoB% is only slightly concerning when considering his very strong ability to avoid carding very many bogeys. Knox, along with defending champ and world #3 Justin Thomas, are the only two golfers in this field that have two top five finishes on this course in the last five years. The upside is there! Knox has 55:1 odds and ranks 15th in my model.
Low-Priced Targets
Nick Watney (DK: $6.9k | FD: $8.8k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
Watney’s form isn’t extremely strong at the moment but he also isn’t priced as if it were. He missed the cut in his first start of the season as well as his most recent start, but sandwiched seven consecutive made cuts in between. More notably, he is 4/4 cuts made at PGA National with finishes of 33rd, 14th, 41st, and 24th. The change over to Bermuda greens would also seem to benefit Watney this week as he has finished inside the top 40 on seven out of his last ten starts on courses with Bermuda greens. He’s 49th in SG: App, 90th in P4 AVG, 25th in BoB%, 24th in Bogey Avoidance, and 15th in Long Iron Accuracy. With his course history, decent stats, and positive Bermuda splits, Watney looks like a viable option in all formats with some reasonable top 25 upside. He is a 150:1 long shot to win but does rank 22nd in my model.
Sam Burns (DK: $6.8k | FD: $8.5k)
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
Burns has had a rough go at it out on the West Coast but he is another cheap DFS play who should be relieved to be back playing on Bermuda greens. Five of his six career top 20 finishes have come on courses with Bermuda putting surfaces. This is certainly a GPP-only play, as you simply can’t trust a golfer who has made just 4/10 cuts on the year in cash. However, Burns played very well in his PGA National debut last year where he hammered home an 8th place finish. When writing these newsletters I will often do without mentioning the stats on a cheap value play due to how ugly, or perhaps misleading, they may look. Burns lands in that spot this week. He is more of a bomber (305.4 yards/drive this season) and sacrifices accuracy for distance, which won’t do him many favors on this course. Hopefully he opts to club down on some of these tougher holes in order to land in the short stuff because he does have some quality irons -- especially from 150+ yards out. Also, I’m sure my brother-in-law (@jaybirdlsu on LineStar) will be happy to see this second year professional out of LSU finally get a detailed mention in one of these articles.
Quick Hits | Others to Consider
High-Priced
- Sergio Garcia (DK: $10k | FD: $11.2k) | Cash & GPP | Sergio’s overall ball striking and approach game has been on point this season. He doesn’t have enough qualifying rounds played to show up in PGA stats but he would rank behind only Justin Thomas in SG: App if he did. Has made 8/8 cuts at PGA National -- runner-up in 2016.
- Webb Simpson (DK: $9.6k | FD: $10.6k) | Cash & GPP | He let me down last week but upon further research, maybe this is a better course fit for him this week. He’s 2nd in each of the following: SG: App, P4 AVG, and Bogey Avoidance. Also the top ranked player in my model and putts very well on Bermuda grass. Finished 5th here last year.
Mid-Priced
- Michael Thompson (DK: $8k | FD: $10.1k) | Cash & GPP | Given his current form over his last four starts, he’ll be risky to avoid in DraftKings cash but may be a smart GPP fade. 5/7 cuts made at PGA National with his only career win coming on this course in 2013.
- CT Pan (DK: $7.8k | FD: $8.6k) | Cash & GPP | Hasn’t really popped off recently but he’s a very safe option that has a ton of cut equity. Finished 17th and 37th here the last two years. Really strong FanDuel value as well.
- Jason Kokrak (DK: $7.3k | FD: $9.4k) | GPP Preferred | If it weren’t for his sub-optimal course history (2/5 made cuts) Kokrak would probably be an easy play in all formats. Still, he is 7/7 cuts made on the season and isn’t far removed from that nice three week stretch of consecutive top 20 finishes.
Low-Priced
- Stewart Cink (DK: $6.8k | FD: $9.1k) | Cash Preferred | Tough to justify playing him at his FanDuel price but for $6.8k on DraftKings, you won’t find anyone this cheap who is 8/8 made cuts on this course -- though he has yet to land a top 25 here. Reasonable DK cash viable punt play.
- Anirban Lahiri (DK: $6.5k | FD: $8.1k) | GPP Preferred | Hardly anyone will be on Lahiri and I really prefer him on these sort of tighter tracks where bombers don’t really have an advantage. Finished 11th here in 2017.
- Lucas Bjerregaard (DK: $6.4k | FD: $8k) | GPP Preferred | Didn’t get much going at all in Mexico last week but he is the 51st ranked player in the world and is priced alongside guys ranked well outside the top 200/300. Nice GPP dart throw based on talent alone.
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That will do it for our Honda Classic preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week!
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