Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview ⛳️

The PGA Tour departs Sin City and heads south for the Houston Open, which will be hosted at the Golf Club of Houston in Humble, Texas. Among this field of 140+ players, Henrik Stenson headlines as the only guy inside the top 40 ranked golfers in the world. Overall, only ten of the top 100 golfers will be teeing it up this week. No matter! Eventually the more star-studded events will come around, but for now we can use golf tournaments like the Houston Open to familiarize ourselves more with the lesser known PGA talent. That is knowledge that may return to help you later on in the season! As usual, the cut rule will once again be the top 65 (and ties) that make it into the weekend. The “6/6 rate” has been extremely brutal through the first stretch of the new season so don’t get discouraged if you’re producing a lot of 4/6 and 5/6 lineups. For the most part, only about 5% of DraftKings entries (cash and GPPs) have produced 6/6 lineups. Keep grinding!

The Golf Club of Houston is a Par 72 that extends a lengthy 7,441 yards. A major course defense here is wind. If wind conditions remain calm or relatively moderate, then golfers won’t have many problems carding low scores. In 2018, the GC of Houston played as the 10th easiest course (out of 49). However, the year prior when wind conditions were more prevalent, it played at the 24th most difficult. We’ll get into a quick weather outlook further down but let’s briefly talk about the GC of Houston’s layout. The break down here is pretty straightforward. Elite ball strikers should reign supreme this week. Typically, this event has been a tune-up for The Masters so, as a result, the course would aim to mimic conditions at Augusta. Now, with the PGA schedule realignment moving this event to the fall, there are a couple of expected changes. First, the rough should be a bit thicker than is has been in years past (Augusta National GC plays with little to no rough for The Masters) so fairway accuracy may be more important this season than in the past. Second, the greens are exclusively Bermudagrass and won’t be over-seeded as it has been previously in the Springtime. Water will come into play on half of these holes so that’s an obvious major hazard that could result in some lofty scores. That’s just more reason to target strong, accurate ball strikers. Now, let’s get a look at the upcoming forecast, some key stats to focus on, and some golfers to target at each price range!

Weather ⛅

For the most part, wind conditions will be pretty consistent for both waves on Thursday and Friday. Sustained winds will be around 10 mph for most of Thursday with ~15 mph gusts. Golfers teeing off very early Thursday morning could see the calmest conditions through the first two rounds, so if you’re into betting first round leaders, I would look for guys starting up in that early AM window. Friday is where things could get interesting. It seems that sustained winds could be around 15 mph for much of the day with gusts nearing 30 mph. If the current forecast holds, I could see a very slight advantage for the AM/PM wave, but I wouldn’t weigh that too heavily in my decision making.

Weekend conditions: Of course, weather for the Saturday and Sunday rounds isn’t nearly as important because there is no predicting when guys will be teeing off. It is worth noting that golfers atop the leaderboard after round two could get a chance to separate themselves even further since they’ll get later Saturday tee times (Saturday morning winds could be an issue; 10-12 mph sustained, 20+ mph gusts).

As always, make sure to check the forecast (linked to the image below) once we get closer to Thursday morning to check for any significant changes.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: BS) | 35%

2. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 25%

3. Par 4 Scoring | 20%

4. Par 5 Scoring | 10%

5. Good Drive % | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Note: Considering the overall field strength, I would consider this more of a lower bankroll spend week with a focus on tournaments over cash games. As a result, I will be doing away with the cash and GPP star rankings this week!

Daniel Berger | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11k

Vegas: 22/1 | Custom Model Rank: #1

A five-figure Daniel Berger really lets you know what sort of field strength we’re working with. But he does stand out as the top ranked player in my model and I can’t really argue against him. He has made six consecutive cuts, including back-to-back top 25s to open the 2019-20 PGA Tour season. Berger has also found success at GC of Houston, making 4-of-4 cuts, including a pair of 5th place finishes in ‘16 and ‘17 and an average finish of 13th. Statistically, he ranks 31st in SG: BS, 41st in BoB%, 44th in Par 4 Scoring, 34th in Par 5 Scoring, and 17th in Good Drive %. I’d imagine in a weaker field, Berger can absolutely transfer his strong current form and combine that with his excellent course history to produce another excellent result.

Russell Henley | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.5k

Vegas: 22/1 | Custom Model Rank: #4

If you want a certified course horse, well, here’s your man. Henley has made the weekend in all six of his appearances at GC of Houston and here are his finishes over the last five years: 8th (‘18), 1st (‘17), 5th (‘16), 4th (‘15), 7th (‘14). Somewhat of a holdup here would be Henley’s current form, which is solid but certainly nothing special. He has made seven consecutive cuts but, aside from his solo 2nd place finish at last season’s John Deere Classic, no other finishing results are all that impressive. Regardless, there is definitely something to be said about the sort of course experience and success that Henley possesses. Stat-wise, he hits in some areas but remains lackluster in others -- but that is going to be a common occurrence for just about everyone this week. He ranks 20th in SG: BS, 76th in BoB%, 35th in Par 4 Scoring, 82nd in Par 5 Scoring, and 35th in Good Drive %.

Mid-Priced Targets

Harris English | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.9k

Vegas: 40/1 | Custom Model Rank: #10

English, somewhat quietly, has some of the strongest form heading into The Houston Open. He has made the cut in 13 of his last 14 starts, including six straight with a pair of top 10s already through three starts this season. He’s hitting a ton of fairways and greens in regulation so when the wind starts to kick up this week, I’d expect English to be able to handle things about as well as anyone in the field. He ranks 71st in SG: BS, 62nd in BoB%, 24th in Par 4 Scoring, 29th in Par 5 Scoring, and 21st in Good Drive %. The shaky iron play results in him being a little over-reliant on his flat stick (16th in SG: Putting) but I believe his long, accurate driver can help him overcome some occasionally errant approach shots. He has some solid course experience here, making 4-of-5 cuts, but not a ton of success, with an average finish of 66th. I’d expect him to post his best Houston Open result to date, and he’ll check in as one of my favorite plays of the week.

Lanto Griffin | DK: $8k, FD: $9.5k

Vegas: 50/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2

Griffin has been a major money maker for me lately and people really haven’t been rostering him as much as I would have expected as he has typically checked in under 15% owned in most contests. He was carding a ton of top 20 finishes recently on the Korn Ferry Tour and he seamlessly transferred that success to the PGA Tour, resulting in four straight top 20 finishes to start the season. He ranks 25th in SG: BS, 6th in BoB%, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 9th in Par 5 Scoring, and 38th in Good Drive %. I’m disregarding his lack of course history/success (missed cut last year in his first start at the Houston Open). Everything about his game from tee to green is clicking and he’s rolling one of the hottest putters out there (4th in SG: Putting). I expect some high ownership to finally head his way but Griffin will be another core play out in Houston.

Low-Priced Targets

Mark Hubbard | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.7k

Vegas: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #6

At this time last year, Hubbard was the 954th ranked golfer in the world. He’s played well enough since then to rocket himself up to the 236th ranked golfer in the world. If you include his starts on the Korn Ferry Tour, Hubbard has made the cut in 10 of his last 11 starts and has a pair of top 15 finishes on the PGA Tour already this season. He has simply been the definition of “solid” and ranks 4th in the field in total strokes gained. Per the key stats, he is 37th in SG: BS, 18th in BoB%, 18th in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Par 5 Scoring, and 65th in Good Drive %. With the way he’s been competing, he really deserves to be priced up by a few hundred more dollars so he’s definitely a standout value play for this event.

Zack Sucher | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.8k

Vegas: 150/1 | Custom Model Rank: #16

Sucher is another golfer who feels like a bit of a misprice. He is the 131st ranked golfer who has opened the 2019-20 PGA Tour season up with back-to-back top 25 finishes, yet he is priced around many golfers who sit well outside the top 300 in the Official World Golf Rankings. Sucher will be making his Houston Open debut but I do love the potential course fit. He checks in 4th in SG: BS, 6th in BoB%, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 30th in Par 5 Scoring, and 45th in Good Drive %. He’s shown himself to be a tee to green force and I would expect him to continue his success down in the Lone Star State.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced Targets

Henrik Stenson | DK: $11.4k, FD: $11.9k

Vegas: 9/1 | CMR: #8

Stenson is clearly the class of the field and has shown some success at the GC of Houston with a 6th place finish last year and a 2nd place finish in 2016. You’re obviously paying the absolute premium to get him but he could easily ‘ship this tournament.

Denny McCarthy | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.4k

Vegas: 33/1 | CMR: #5

In a week best suited for GPPs, I have to give McCarthy some love. His deadly putter and short game makes him a major threat every week. If at any point he gains strokes on the field with his irons, oh boy, look out!

Mid-Priced Targets

Cameron Tringale | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.6k

Vegas: 50/1 | CMR: #3

Tringale has made the cut at the GC of Houston in 7-of-8 starts with three top 10s (two top 5s) and he ranks 49th or better in every one of my key stats. Combined with the really nice recent form, I’ve got no issues taking in some Tringale this week even though he’s much more expensive than what we’re accustomed to.

Xinjun Zhang | DK: $8k, FD: $8.9k

Vegas: 66/1 | CMR: #7

I’ll be honest, Zhang isn’t a golfer I’m overly familiar with but he has routinely been winning (and carding other top 5s) on the Korn Ferry Tour and has back-to-back top 20s on the PGA Tour. His ball striking has been elite in the few measured PGA rounds he has to his name. He looks like another highly intriguing GPP play.

Low-Priced Targets

Peter Uihlein | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.5k

Vegas: 100/1 | CMR: #58

From a talent perspective, Uihlein is one of the better golfers in this price range. He has struggled on the PGA Tour over the last year or so but he has made 3-of-3 cuts thus far in the season and is a sneaky threat to card a top 15 finish. Do I trust him? Not exactly. But I am aware of his potential.

John Huh | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.4k

Vegas: 200/1 | CMR: #74

This is absolutely a ‘GPP only’ sort of punt play. Huh has made the cut four times in his last five starts at the GC of Houston and hasn’t finished worse than 39th in any of those four events. If he can find some moderate success with his ball striking (121st in SG: BS) he should do well for himself on the greens (12th in SG: Putting).

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Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll be around in chat all week so just tag me if you'd like a second opinion on a player or just have any other general PGA DFS questions!

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