By: Ryan Humphries | On Twitter & LineStar Chat @Ryan_Humphries

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour travels to Silvis, Illinois for the 2021 John Deere Classic which will be held at TPC Deere Run. We are only one week away from the Open Championship (aka The British Open), so much of the world’s top golf talent is across the pond either preparing for that Major tournament or staying loose and competing in the Scottish Open, which also takes place this week. As such, you’ll notice a weak field for the JDC, as only 14 of the top 100 ranked golfers in the world are in attendance. Despite the lack of big names, this event always brings plenty of excitement. It’s a high scoring event and offers some guys who aren’t already qualified for the Open Championship a final chance to meet the qualifications. Plenty of golfers notch their first PGA Tour win here as well. In the past, we’ve seen young stars like Collin Morikawa, Matthew Wolff, Joaquin Niemann, Viktor Hovland, Sam Burns, and Sungjae Im establish themselves here at the JDC and other similar tournaments. Overall, this is a full field with over 150 players and, as usual, the top 65 (and ties) will make it through to play on the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Deere Run

Par 71 - 7,268 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Course Difficulty (Last 5 Years*): 35th, 46th, 38th, 39th, 43rd

Cut Line (Last 5 Years*): -3, -2, -1, -2, -3

*Note: Course/event was not played in 2020 and was postponed due to COVID-19

TPC Deere Run is a Par 71 which stretches 7,268 yards and contains bentgrass greens & fairways and is surrounded by Kentucky bluegrass rough. It is a very scenic and naturally focused course that is devoid of any real estate. The fairways are some of the easiest on TOUR to hit (about a 70% field average). The greens are large in size, carry some slope and undulation, and will run with a moderate pace at about an 11.5 on the stimpmeter. We will most definitely see plenty of scoring as TPC Deere Run profiles as a big time “birdie fest” track – annually ranking as one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour. Dating back to 2010, the average winning score comes in right around 22-under par! Though, some potential high winds on the weekend may make hitting a winning score of 20-under (or lower) a bit more difficult this year. While Par 4 scoring will remain a key stat as it is in many weeks, Par 5 scoring will be almost equally as important as it should account for close to a third of DFS scoring. As usual, accurate approach shots will be vital to get into a better scoring position, and right around 40% of approaches will come in under 150 yards, making a strong wedge game a must. Unlike last week, we will have plenty of course history to look back on as well, which is always a helpful bonus. Despite the lack of star power within this field, TPC Deere Run is a beautiful course to look at on TV (or in person) and often provides plenty of drama and close finishes down the stretch on the final Sunday round. Now, let’s get a quick look at the weather, some key stats to focus on, and some top picks for this week!

Weather ⛅

Temperatures will be on the cooler side all week in the 60s and 70s. There will likely be a lot of cloud coverage all week as well, which could bring some rain along with it at times. But, for now, we shouldn’t expect to see any particular round get washed out.

As usual, the primary weather impact to monitor will be wind speeds. For traditional four round DFS contests, a wave advantage doesn’t appear to be a major worry. Sustained winds should stay under 10 mph on both Thursday and Friday with some 15ish mph gusts at times -- pretty manageable conditions overall.

The Saturday and Sunday rounds bring forth the likelihood of sustained 15 mph winds with gusts reaching as high as 30 mph. If you’re playing single round contests either day, be sure to check a more up-to-date forecast in case of a potential tee time advantage.

John Deere Classic Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Par 5 Average | 15%

5. Proximity from 100-125 & 125-150 Yards | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stats Only Rank; Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated towards each metric.

Overall Model Rank (OMR); a golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Brian Harman | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 14/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #12

Overall Model Rank: #4

Harman has been an ultra reliable DFS asset this season as he has missed just two cuts in 21 starts. Aside from his missed cut (on the number) at the PGA Championship, Harman’s finishing result has been between T3 and T19 in his other previous seven tournaments. He ranks 1st in the field in Par 5 AVG, 8th in P4 AVG, and 10th in overall birdie or better percentage. He doesn’t have the crispiest irons around, but they’re certainly adequate enough, and he typically will have one of the more reliable putters around (7th in SG: Putt, 2nd in 3-Putt Avoidance). Harman has had some notable success at TPC Deere Run as well, winning here in 2014 and securing another top 10 finish in 2017. He’ll set up as a solid target to spend up on this week.

Seamus Power | DK: $9k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 40/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #5

Overall Model Rank: #2

I would not expect Power to fly under the radar like he did at last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic where he was a late addition to the field, checked in at around 10% ownership, and came away with a T8 finish. He’ll come in with a significant price bump this week, but all signs point towards that bump being warranted. Power’s streak of seven consecutive made cuts on the PGA Tour is tied for the 8th longest active streak. He has strung together four consecutive top 20 finishes and is 3-for-3 on made cuts at TPC Deere Run, which includes a T25 in 2017 & T16 in 2018. Power has yet to win on the PGA Tour, but I’d be tempted to throw a small wager at his 40/1 odds to win this week. Power’s strong form, standout metrics, and solid course experience will give him plenty of upside in this weak field.

Mid-Priced Targets

Hank Lebioda | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 66/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #13

Overall Model Rank: #13

Lebioda will be another golfer I can’t look past after coming off of a successful week at the RMC. He enters in on back-to-back top five finishes and a six event streak of making it past the cut line. Lebioda ranks 1st in the field in both average finish in his last five events and average fantasy points in his last five events. His putter has been doing some heavy lifting, which isn’t something that can be relied upon week-to-week, but he’s also been gaining strokes on the field in most tee to green categories. Lebioda missed the cut in his only career appearance at the JDC, but I’ll trust his recent form over his lack of course experience/success. He’ll be another golfer I’d be willing to throw some cash at, not just in DFS, but on his 66/1 odds to win as well.

Jhonattan Vegas | DK: $8k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #18

Overall Model Rank: #8

On the surface, Vegas could probably be labeled as a “cash safe” play, considering he has missed just one cut in his last 12 PGA events. However, while he has been an efficient cut maker, many of his final results have placed him outside the top 40… which isn’t really going to fly, value-wise, when he is still fairly pricey as the 21st most expensive golfer (on both sites). Admittedly, many weeks nowadays we’re seeing the rate at which all six golfers in DFS lineups make the cut (aka “6/6 rate”) come in at about 5%… so maybe take reliable cut-makers (like Vegas has been) where you can get ‘em. As you can tell by viewing his tournament logs, Vegas does have immense upside and has landed on a pair of top 10 finishes within his previous four starts. He’s a big time bomber who should benefit from these fairways at TPC Deere Run being very easy to hit. Vegas’ putter will always be fairly unpredictable (99th in SG: Putting in this field) but if he can get hot with the flat stick, or even just gain a stroke or two putting on the field, this could end up being one of those big upside weeks.

Low-Priced Targets

Roger Sloan | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.7k

Odds: 125/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #9

Overall Model Rank: #5

Predictably, the value range is a little extra dicey this week given the lack of overall talent available. Sloan is easily the noticeable standout in my model out of this range. In this field, Sloan ranks 32nd or better in SG: App (19th), BoB% (32nd), P4 AVG (11th), and P5 AVG (25th). He also ranks 5th in Proximity from 100-125 yards, so he’s shown a good deal of strong wedge play. Sloan has made the weekend in four of his last five starts with his highest finish being a T21 at last week’s RMC. Sloan has only played twice at TPC Deere Run but he has come away with finishes of T18 (2015) and T10 (2019). I’m not overly confident we’ll see him land a top 20 this week, but if just makes the cut and creates a little noise on the weekend rounds, he’ll return some quality value.

Josh Teater | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.3k

Odds: 250/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #37

Overall Model Rank: #21

The upside is questionable, but it’s hard to knock a guy who is $300 above minimum salary and has made seven of his last eight PGA cuts and 5-of-6 cuts at TPC Deere Run. On DraftKings specifically, 10x value is what I like to look for out of golfers since, if you have a lineup score of 500 points, you’re usually going to cash easily. At $6,300 on DK, Teater has hit that 10x threshold in six of his previous eight starts. Essentially, if he just makes the cut, he’s going to return value on an easy course like TPC Deere Run.

Quick Hits - Other Golfers to Consider

Daniel Berger | DK: $11.1k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 9/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Overall Model Rank: #1

He’s the top dog in the field this week and an easy play if you find the salary to get him in.

Cam Davis | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 25/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #10

Overall Model Rank: #10

The win last week has inflated Davis’ DFS salaries but that will make him a low-owned GPP play as I doubt many people will point chase with more reliable options priced around him.

Aaron Wise | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #6

Overall Model Rank: #3

Wise is a somewhat sneaky course fit who I expect will also come in a bit under-owned in GPPs. If he can bring a steady putter to the course this week, I wouldn’t be shocked if he wins.

Zach Johnson | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 40/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #51

Overall Model Rank: #22

I’m not crazy about the recent form, but ZJ has landed a couple of decent finishes in his last three starts (T25 & T32). The obvious draw for him this week will be his course horse status. Johnson has made 14-of-15 cuts at TPC Deere Run with an impressive SIX top fives since 2011 (won in 2012). Some guys just have an affinity for certain course and this one is definitely in Johnson’s wheelhouse.

Beau Hossler | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 66/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #92

Overall Model Rank: #37

The long term stats aren’t pretty for Hossler but he has been finding a groove lately. He enters on three straight top 25s and came away T26 in his TPC Deere Run debut in 2019 (the last time this course was played on Tour).

Pat Perez | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9k

Odds: 80/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #21

Overall Model Rank: #15

Perez has some pretty rough course history but has made it past the cutline in six of his last seven starts with a pair of top 15s in his last three. He has strong putting splits on bentgrass greens and makes his fair share of birdies, particularly on Par 5s.

Alex Smalley | DK: $6k, FD: $7.6k

Odds: 200/1 | GPP Only

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Smalley was a late qualifier for this event so don’t expect many eyes on him. This will be just his fifth career start on the PGA Tour, but he has been crushing in the developmental/Canadian tours as of late. Over his last 11 starts, he has landed five top 10s and five additional top 25s. Smalley’s last two PGA starts were at the Corales (another weak field event) where he came away with T14 and T22 results.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Seamus Power

It’s not a bad idea at all to roll out Daniel Berger if you still have him available, but I’ll lean toward Power in hopes that his hot form continues for another week.

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options still available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the complete 2020-21 PGA season.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.