Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview

The PGA Tour sets out to Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic held at TPC Deere Run. We are just one week away from the Open Championship, so much of the world’s top talent is across the pond either preparing for the week ahead or staying loose and competing in the Scottish Open. As such, you’ll notice a weak field for the JDC, as only 11 of the top 100 ranked golfers are in attendance. Despite the lack of big names, this event always brings some excitement, as it offers some guys who aren’t already qualified for next week’s Major a final chance to do so and plenty of golfers notch their first PGA Tour win here. We have the appeal of getting another look at what the young, emerging talent can do. Collin Morikawa, Matthew Wolff, Joaquin Niemann, Viktor Hovland, Sam Burns, and Sungjae Im are some future PGA stars that are in this field and have quickly busted onto the scene. You’ll likely be hearing about them for years to come. Overall, this is a full field with over 150 players and, as usual, the top 70 (and ties) will make it through to play on the weekend.

TPC Deere Run is a Par 71 which stretches 7,268 yards and contains bentgrass greens & fairways and Kentucky bluegrass rough. It is a very scenic and naturally focused course that is devoid of any real estate. The fairways are some of the easiest on TOUR to hit (about a 70% field average). We will most definitely see plenty of scoring as TPC Deere Run profiles as another birdie fest track -- annually ranking as one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour. Dating back to 2009, the average winning score comes in right around 22-under par! While Par 4 scoring will remain a key stat as in previous weeks, Par 5 scoring will be almost equally as important as it should account for close to a third of DFS scoring. As usual, accurate approach shots will be vital to get into better scoring position and most approach shots will come in the 125-175 yard range, making a strong short iron/wedge game a must. Unlike the last couple events, we will have plenty of course history to look back on and despite the lack of name recognition, TPC Deere Run is a beautiful course and I would expect some drama once Sunday rolls around. Now, let’s get a quick look at the weather, some key stats to focus on, and some top picks for this week!

Weather ⛅

I’ll keep this section brief because, currently, there’s not much to worry about weather-wise. Thursday will have a bit of wind, about 10 mph sustained (15 mph gusts) but it’s pretty consistent throughout the day so neither wave would gain an advantage. Winds may not even crack double-digits on Friday and, overall, things seem pretty quiet over the first two rounds. As always, run a final weather check on Wednesday night. The forecast page will be linked to the image below.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 20%

4. Par 5 BoB% | 15%

5. Proximity: 125-175 Yards (Short Iron Accuracy) | 15%

High-Priced Targets

Joaquin Niemann (DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.9k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Kicking things off with one of the young guns with Niemann, though he turned professional last year so he has a bit more PGA experience under his belt than other guys like Morikawa and Wolff. He’s gotten himself into a nice groove after stringing together six consecutive made cuts with a pair of T5s and a finish no worse than T31 in that span. If it weren’t for a poor 2-over opening round last week, he would have easily been in the mix to win late on Sunday. He’s been a tee to green machine and, in this field, he ranks 6th in SG: App, 4th in Par 4 Average, 80th in BoB%, 99th in Par 5 BoB%, and 22nd in Short Iron Accuracy. The long term birdie scoring is down largely due to his woes with the putter (110th in SG: Putting) however, Niemann has been rolling it in with relative consistency in recent weeks. Niemann posted a T23 result in his first trip to TPC Deere Run last year and I’d view a similar result as pretty much his floor. There is no runaway heavy favorite this week so Niemann’s 25/1 odds puts him among the more highly-favored golfer to win. With recent form, some course history, and recent fantasy scoring factored in, Niemann rates out at the top ranked golfer for me this week.

Ryan Moore (DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.6k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

For his DFS prices, Moore hasn’t put up the type of finishes lately that would make you feel comfortable rolling him out in cash but, as a former JDC champion, he should make for a great GPP ‘course horse’ target. In nine career starts at TPC Deere Run, he has missed just one cut with three overall top 10s alongside his win, which came in 2016. Despite his recent inconsistency, Moore’s season-long stats rate out pretty well for this event: 5th in SG: App, 44th in Par 4 Average, 27th in BoB%, 50th in Par 5 BoB%, and 24th in Short Iron Accuracy. Considering the last two events have been on courses that made their PGA debut (Moore missed cut at both), look for Moore to bounce back on a course in which he is much more comfortable on. His 25/1 odds are certainly strong for this week and he rates out 27th in my tournament model.

Mid-Priced Targets

Vaughn Taylor (DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.9k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

It really feels like this general price range consists of the “make or break” group of golfers for this tournament. A standout candidate to consider is the vet Vaughn Taylor. He has made nine of his last ten cuts (one MDF) with four top 20s mixed in. Taylor also brings some strong course experience, having made the cut at TPC Deere Run in three of the last four years (6/10 overall with one top 10). He shows no weakness in any key metric that I’m weighing heavily this week, ranking 34th in SG: App, 18th in Par 4 Average, 21st in BoB%, 63rd in Par 5 BoB%, and 10th in Short Iron Accuracy. He also carries one of the best putters on TOUR and, all things considered, he’ll set up as a core play for me across the board. He holds strong 66/1 odds and ranks second in the tournament model for the week.

Talor Gooch (DK: $7.7k, FD: $9k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

There are more ‘cash safe’ options in this range, some of which I’ll mention below in the “Quick Hits” section, but for upside in GPPs you have to be intrigued by Gooch. His form is actually fine right now with three finishes of T35 or better over his last five starts. But Gooch is a player that will often implode in one round. If that happens on Thursday or Friday, then kiss his cut-making chances goodbye. That being said, his season long metrics are about as good as it gets in this field: 3rd in SG: App, 10th in Par 4 Average, 7th in BoB%, 2nd in Par 5 BoB%, and 31st in Short Iron Accuracy. Despite the lack of course history (withdrew in his JDC debut last year), Gooch is one of my favorite outright bets at 80/1 and he ranks 15th in the overall tournament model.

Low-Priced Targets

Doc Redman (DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.3k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

After his solo runner-up finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, Redman burned a lot of people at last week’s 3M Open, so I’ll look to take him in some spots in GPPs in hopes of low ownership. What led to his missed cut last week was a disastrous opening round of 77. However, in his other nine rounds on the PGA Tour this year, he has scored 70 or better. He hasn’t yet qualified for PGA stats, but on the Canadian Tour he ranked 12th in scoring average (68.25) and carded 4.44 birdies/round (30th). On another easy course, I think we could see him flash the same upside that he showed in his first two PGA events this year. In this price range, Redman stands out with great Vegas value with his 100/1 odds.

Hank Lebioda (DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.2k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Lebioda has found his way into the newsletter for three weeks in a row now. He missed the cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic (by one stroke) but bounced back at last week’s 3M Open with a T34 (ranked 25th in DraftKings scoring). The PGA Tour rookie has made the cut in eight of his last ten starts and will be very capable of paying off his current salaries. He ranks 18th in SG: App, 48th in Par 4 Average, 8th in BoB%, 16th in Par 5 BoB%, and 51st in Short Iron Accuracy. His scoring upside is what has given him the largest amount of appeal in recent weeks on all of these extremely gettable courses. I’d consider him a cash-safe play, but slightly more suited for GPPs. He has 125/1 odds and ranks 22nd in the model.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced

- Collin Morikawa (DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.7k) | GPP Preferred | If I’m spending up on any of these young guns at the very top, it’s going to be on Morikawa. For regular readers of this newsletter, you already know I’ve been all about rolling out this dude. His irons already look like they’re among the best in the world. Can’t wait to see him compete on a really challenging course (which won’t be this week).

- Wyndham Clark (DK: $9k, FD: $9.8k) | GPP Preferred | Yet another PGA Tour rookie who has my attention this week. He’s ripped off three straight top 20s with a T5 last week. The scoring upside is off the charts: 1st in BoB%, 1st in Par 5 BoB%, 11th in Par 4 Average.

Mid-Priced

- Peter Malnati (DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.1k) | Cash & GPP | More of a cash game target considering he has pulled in 13 straight made cuts with only two top 20s. Still, you have to love the consistency and his just all-around solid game.

- Cameron Tringale (DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.1k) | Cash & GPP | Made cuts in last 10/12 events and has shown the ability to post top 10 upside. Great irons and birdie maker (10th in SG: App, 13th in BoB%). Barring some unforeseen blow-up round, I think he pushes for a top 25 result in this field with relative ease.

Low-Priced

- Sam Ryder (DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.9k) | Cash & GPP | Finished 2nd in the JDC last year and ranks 3rd in the stat model. It’s been a while since he has carded a great result but the T34 last week was promising. We’ll see if he can improve even further this week.

- Chad Campbell (DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.1k) | GPP Only | Course horse punt, anyone? Campbell has made 9/9 cuts at TPC Deere Run and it’s not like he is barely scraping by. His average finish in those nine starts is 21st. The 45-year-old hasn’t looked great this year, making just 3/9 cuts, but sometimes a golfer just loves a course and can turn it up in a familiar environment. Not the worst punt out there.

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Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll be around in chat all week so just tag me if you'd like a second opinion on a player or just have any other general PGA DFS questions!

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