Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview

So… how about that Masters weekend?!? I won’t focus on it much but what a great tournament and watching Tiger take it down in the final round was incredible. One of those sports memories I’m sure many will remember forever, myself included. Hopefully last week’s newsletter was of help to you guys because we had four of six golfers highlighted there that ended in the perfect lineup! Tiger, Brooks, Cantlay, and Schauffele all came through with excellent performances at Augusta!

The PGA Tour now heads a couple hours east of Augusta out to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, SC for The RBC Heritage. This tournament typically follows The Masters and usually has a field that is on the weaker side. With the new PGA schedule realignment, and just three stroke play events until the next Major -- the PGA Championship, we’re getting the pleasure of a more strengthened field than we’re used to seeing here as guys look to stay on the top of their game. I’m personally excited for this one because Harbour Town is about a couple hours south from where I live. Perhaps I’ll grab a day pass and head down for a round this week. Four of the world’s top 10 golfers will be in attendance as well as 33 of the top 60 -- the majority of which competed in last week’s Masters. The field will consist of 132 players where the top 70 (and ties) will move on to play the weekend.

Harbour Town GL is a Pete Dye designed Par 71 set-up that reaches 7,099 yards. The fairways are narrow and tree-lined and the Bermuda greens are some of the smallest on TOUR. This is a week to keep the big stick in the bag for most of these holes, as hitting these fairways is absolutely crucial. The average drive here tends to be about 275 yards -- well below TOUR average. Pete Dye courses force golfers to find the right landing spots so they can better ‘frame’ their approach shots on these especially small greens. The difficulty in which this course plays is heavily influenced by the weather. Being right by the ocean, wind tends to play a major factor and has caused Harbour Town to rank as either a moderately easy course over the years or as one of the most challenging courses. With potential for windy conditions this week, I will weigh course history a bit higher than usual as well as adjust a couple key stats to better dig up some quality course fits. Let’s jump straight into a detailed look at the weather, some key stats that should help us find some contenders and values, and my favorite overall picks for this week!

Weather ⛅

As I mentioned above, weather can be extremely impactful here and we may have some issues this week. Overall, Thursday doesn’t look too crazy -- cool temps, mostly cloudy, sustained winds around 10-12 mph with 20 mph gusts pretty consistently throughout the day. Not great but not bad. Friday is a different animal as sustained winds will whip around 20-25 mph with some brutal 40+ mph gusts and a pretty strong chance at some rain & thunderstorms in the afternoon. There’s potential for a washout for the second round. If the second round has to be extended into Saturday, winds will still be an issue at 20 mph sustained, 30 mph gusts. It’s too early to tell what wave may have an advantage at the moment due to potential for delays. I will link this forecast page to the image below and we’ll just have to wait for a better idea of how things will be shaping up closer to Thursday morning.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 35%

2. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 25%

3. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG) | 15%

5. Good Drive Percentage** (GD%) | 10%

**The reason I’m weighing “Good Drive Percentage” instead of “Driving Accuracy” is due to the high potential winds that may cause even the most accurate drivers to find the rough. GD% measures fairways hit plus greens hit after missing the fairway. Whereas “Driving Accuracy “ measures just the percentage of fairways hit.

High-Priced Targets

Matt Kuchar (DK: $10k, FD: $11.5k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

The potential for harsh, windy conditions has made me tweak the type of golfer I’ll be looking for this week a bit and what statistics I’m focusing on. While Kuchar would probably be on my radar to begin with, I may be doubling down due to his general safety and his experience at this course throughout the years in which he’s had a ton of success regardless of conditions. He won here in 2014, has not missed a cut at Harbour Town in 13 tries, and has five top five finishes in total. He’s in some of the best form of his career with 11/11 made cuts this season with two wins and is coming in off of a 12th place finish at The Masters. He ranks 2nd in SG: App, 14th in P4 AVG, 4th in Bogey Avoidance, 35th in SG: ATG, and 6th in GD%. An elite combination of form, course history, and metrics should lead him to being the anchor to most cash lineups. For that reason, I rated him as a less than stellar GPP play due to ownership and you may get more leverage by going with another top tier golfer when looking to spend up. He has 22/1 odds to win and ranks 2nd in my tournament model.

Jim Furyk (DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.3k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Selecting Kuchar and Furyk to highlight among other high-priced golfers may not make for the sexiest splash but certainly one of the safest. Again, though the forecast may change closer to Thursday morning, if I’m spending up on someone I want as much insurance as possible that they can battle through into the weekend. While Furyk only finished 70th here last year and missed the cut in 2017, he was not in the sort of form he is in now (four straight top 25’s) and he still has great course history to fall back on in years prior. Overall he has won at Harbour Town twice, making 10/13 cuts, and has seven combined top 10’s. His game is tailor-made for the perhaps boring but necessary “fairways and greens” play style that Harbour Town rewards. He ranks 5th in SG: App, 11th in P4 AVG, 5th in Bogey Avoidance, 24th in SG: ATG, and 5th in GD%. Furyk was not in the field for last week’s Masters so he should be a bit more rested than many of the guys priced up top. He should be great to target in all formats as a 33/1 favorite and is 3rd in my tournament model (1st in stat rankings).

Mid-Priced Targets

Ian Poulter (DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.2k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Another Harbour Town battle-tested veteran makes an appearance! Poulter is having one of the best seasons of his career and has made 11/11 cuts on the year while coming into this week with a 12th place Masters finish. He’s made the weekend at Harbour Town 7/7 times including a 7th place result last year and 11th the year prior. He is 59th in SG: App, 34th in P4 AVG, 27th in Bogey Avoidance, 6th in SG: ATG, and 7th in GD%. Poulter is one of my favorite golfers to watch compete, especially this season, as he just rarely has a “blow up” sort of round. He’s often able to bounce back after a tough bogey or two and grind out consistently good results. He’ll have 33/1 odds this week, which I could see rising, and ranks out 12th in the tournament model.

Lucas Glover (DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.6k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Glover may have five missed cuts in 14 trips to Harbour Town but he has consecutive made cuts at the RBC Heritage for the last four years, finishing no worse than 33rd, and has shown some very good form this season. The run he is on this season is pretty wild. He’s 10/12 on cuts made and has finished no worse than 17th when he’s made it to the weekend, including four top 10’s. He ranks 16th in SG: App, 4th in P4 AVG, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance, 15th in SG: ATG, and 14th in GD%. Incredibly strong numbers for a guy in this salary range! He has some solid 50/1 odds to win and is 9th in the tournament model (3rd in my key stats rankings).

Low-Priced Targets

Luke Donald (DK: $7.2k, FD: $9k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

For many years in PGA DFS, when it was time to play at Harbour Town it was just tradition to lock in Luke Donald. Harbour Town is to Luke Donald as what the US Open is to Phil Mickelson. Phil has six runner-up finishes but no wins at the US Open. Donald has five runner-ups and two third place finishes at Harbour Town… and sadly no wins. Always the bridesmaid, never the bride. Last year, Donald missed his first career cut here, in ten appearances, by just one stroke. He had to have been so sad that day… poor guy. He has competed in just three events this season, so he doesn’t register for PGA stats, but he did flash a bit of form at the Valspar Championship with a 9th place finish (sandwiched between two missed cuts at the Sony Open and Valero Texas Open). Sometimes a golfer just loves a course and how it fits their game and Harbour Town has been that course for Donald. While there’s no way you can really trust him for cash, you have to take a shot on him somewhere in a GPP. You’ll notice that no one priced around him has odds anywhere close to his 55/1 chance to win. I know I have to root for this guy!

Nick Taylor (DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.9k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

So you’re really not going to find a guy priced too low in this field who has that great of current form to go along with decent course history without taking a bit of a risk, but Nick Taylor at least seems moderately acceptable as a “cash safe” sort of option. He’s made three of four cuts at Harbour Town and 12/15 cuts on the season, including six straight where he’s captured four top 30 finishes throughout. His stats won’t amaze you, but again, “moderately acceptable”. He’s 76th in SG: App, 44th in P4 AVG, 54th in Bogey Avoidance, 75th in SG: ATG, and 78th in GD%. He’s dirt cheap and in a week where more than half of the field will make the cut, he can return value just by playing all four rounds.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced

- Bryson DeChambeau (DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.7k) | GPP Preferred | Two top five finishes in three trips to Harbour Town, including a 4th place finish in 2016 when the weather was really messy. Maybe all of his calculations he does before every shot will help counteract the potential wild winds players will face this week!

- Webb Simpson (DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.8k) | Cash & GPP | Coming off a 5th place at The Masters and I’ll always target Simpson on Pete Dye courses evidenced by him ranking 2nd in my key stats. His game is made for tight tracks and great play around the greens.

- Tommy Fleetwood (DK: $9.2k, FD: $11.3k) | GPP Preferred | I’m more so mentioning him for his DraftKings mispricing. He’s never played here but could easily win this week despite entering off of a less than stellar performance at The Masters.

Mid-Priced

- Jason Kokrak (DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.6k) | Cash & GPP | MCs here the last two years but prior to that he had finishes of 6th (2016), 18th (2015), and 12th (2014). His 2016 finish was in that challenging weather that I also mentioned with DeChambeau and Kokrak is in perhaps the best form of his career. Very good FD value.

- Sungjae Im (DK: $8.4k, FD: $10k) | GPP Preferred | Another Harbour Town first timer, which will keep me off of him in cash, but he has been incredible this season as a young up-and-coming golfer. A top 10 or even top 5 finish would not surprise me.

Low-Priced

- Alex Noren (DK: $7k, FD: $8.7k) | GPP Preferred | Not long ago I would lock this guy in most weeks in cash as a high/mid priced guy but I'm not sure what is up with him lately. His irons and putting have derailed but he is still the 32nd ranked player in the world and is priced with guys who rank in the hundreds. He’s played in mostly difficult fields lately so maybe a tune-up in a somewhat weaker field is what he’s looking for in his RBC Heritage debut.

- Ryan Armour (DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.8k) | Cash & GPP | Borderline cash viable punt. Armour is the sort of non-exciting course grinder who I could see nabbing a sneaky top 25 finish on a track like Harbour Town. 30th in P4 AVG, 25th in Bogey Avoidance, 15th in GD%. Had a 55th place finish here last year and overall has made 3/3 cuts.

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