By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

After a one week holiday break, the PGA Tour returns to action and heads south of the border for the Mayakoba Golf Classic held at the El Camaleon Golf Club in the Playa del Carmen region of Mexico. If you’ve got the PGA DFS itch, be sure to get your fill in this week because it’s the final stroke play event of the 2020 calendar year. The 132-player field may not be filled to the brim with stud-tier players but we still have quite a bit of outstanding talent to choose from, as 29 of the world’s top 100 golfers are on site ready to tee it up. The traditional cut rule is also in place once again -- the top 65 golfers (including ties) after 36 holes will qualify to play into the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

El Camaleon GC is a Par 71 layout that stretches 7,015 yards and features three Par 5s and four Par 3s. This course has hosted this tournament since 2007 so we do have a very solid course history sample size to work with for many golfers in this field. El Camaleon GC sits by the ocean on the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula (about 40 miles south of Cancun) so winds can sometimes come into play as a primary course defense. But as long as winds stay relatively manageable, we can expect plenty of birdies ahead with a winning score to be in the high-teens, or perhaps just inside the 20-under range.

The fairways here have some tight landing zones and plenty of hazards to contend with. The rough isn’t too gnarly but around 10-15 yards away from the fairways are very problematic hazards (sand dunes, dense vegetation, mangroves, canals). Since this is a shorter course by PGA standards, a popular strategy that players may deploy will be to “club down” off the tee in an effort to keep their ball out of trouble and have a more optimal second shot. The paspalum-style greens here don’t have very much undulation and will play at average to slower speeds (around 10-11 on the stimpmeter). Due to the receptiveness of the greens, expect the premiere iron players in this field to stick plenty of shots close to the pin at this track. A healthy approach game will be paramount as well as excellent Par 5 scoring, as around 35% of birdies made here will come on those three holes. With all that covered, let’s hop into an early look at the weather, some stats to key in on and some top plays to consider this week!

Weather ⛅

The good news here is that, for a coastal course, the winds should be fairly manageable this week. While wind gusts are going to be unavoidable at this course, they should only max out around 15-20 mph for the first two rounds. Otherwise, sustained winds should rarely hit double digit speeds. There are also some holes that play further inland and won’t be as impacted by winds. There is a threat of rain beginning Thursday afternoon extending throughout the day on Friday. As long as lightning doesn’t come into play, they might be able to play through any lighter rain but don’t be surprised if we see some kind of delays (or tee time adjustments). At this time I’m not seeing a definitive wave advantage over the first two days but, as always, run a final forecast check on Wednesday night before making any final decisions.

Mayakoba Golf Classic Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Birdie or Better % | 30%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Par 5 Birdie or Better % | 10%

5. Greens in Regulation | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Harris English | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 16/1 | Custom Model Rank: #6 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks*: 38th SG: App | 5th BoB% | 10th P4 AVG | 7th Par 5 BoB% | 60th GIR

*Key Stat Ranks are always ordered in relation to the field.

As a whole, English’s course history is pretty erratic here as he has made the cut in just 4-of-7 appearances at El Camaleon GC. However, one of his two PGA wins came here back in 2013 and he netted a solo 5th place finish here last season. English is also playing some of the best golf of his career over these last few months and across the last ten events, only Justin Thomas is averaging more DKFP per event (in this field). The iron play may not be elite but English has a reliable tee to the green game and a steady putter which allows him to pour in plenty of birdies. No issues rolling him out in cash or GPPs.

Will Zalatoris | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 30/1 | Custom Model Rank: #20 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 1st SG: App | 39th BoB% | 30th P4 AVG | 17th Par 5 BoB% | 30th GIR

Zalatoris is undoubtedly one of the PGA’s rising stars of tomorrow. He tore it up on the Korn Ferry Tour this past season, earning ten top 10s and 14 top 25s in only 16 starts (along with a win). He already has three top 10s across his last five PGA starts along with a T16 at the Bermuda Championship. He doesn’t have a great sample size of strokes gained data to his credit but he has shown elite ball striking prowess and Zalatoris will be pushing for PGA wins on Sundays before too long. Maybe this week?

Mid-Priced Targets

Emiliano Grillo | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 55/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 4th SG: App | 43rd BoB% | 19th P4 AVG | 23rd Par 5 BoB% | 1st GIR

Grillo is a great course fit here which is backed up by his history at El Camaleon: 4/4 made cuts with three top 15s. He’s made the weekend in 10 of his last 11 starts and rates out very well on the key stats. Grillo’s main setback typically comes with the putter (103rd in this field in SG: Putting). However, considering these greens are so soft and receptive, the hope here would be that Grillo can be one of those elite iron players who can just go pin seeking and set himself up with a ton of highly makeable <10 foot putts. He leads the field in greens hit in regulation and 6th in proximity to the hole so, all things considered, Grillo should set up well for a strong finish this week.

Patton Kizzire | DK: $8k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 66/1 | Custom Model Rank: #15 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 79th SG: App | 10th BoB% | 45th P4 AVG | 8th Par 5 BoB% | 52nd GIR

There’s no way I could ever recommend Kizzire as a cash safe play but there is no doubt his game has been trending up and he deserves some consideration for GPPs. Kizzire has made all four of his cuts at El Camaleon, though the results are quite a mixed bag. He has three finishes of T55 or worse but won here in 2017. Kizzire enters into this week with five made cuts in a row (average finish of 29th in that stretch) and back-to-back finishes of T10 and T11. He’ll be quite dependent on his putter but if the flat stick stays hot (1.53 avg putts over last month, ranks 5th in the field) he may sneak his way into the top 10.

Note for FanDuel Players: Brian Harman is blatantly mispriced at the bare minimum of $7,000. For comparison, he is $8,400 on DraftKings (18th most expensive golfer) and carries 50/1 odds to win. I’m not necessarily crazy about him this week but prior to his missed cut at the RSM Classic, Harman was riding a made cut streak of 11 starts. For minimum salary, all Harman has to do to pay off is to simply make the cut so it’ll be hard to fade him, especially in cash games.

Low-Priced Targets

Brice Garnett | DK: $7k, FD: $8.6k

Odds: 125/1 | Custom Model Rank: #52 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 84th SG: App | 79th BoB% | 57th P4 AVG | 79th Par 5 BoB% | 59th GIR

Garnett does not shine on the stat sheet but he has an incredibly solid course history which is strong enough to push him into cash consideration for me. Garnett’s last five starts at this course have resulted in finishes of 11th, 5th, 25th, 7th, and 6th. Obviously, if he replicates any of those results it would be an insanely great value. He did miss his most recent cut at the RSM Classic but had made his three prior cuts, including a T21 at the Bermuda Championship.

Cameron Percy | DK: $5.4k, FD: $7.6k

Odds: 350/1 | Custom Model Rank: #17 | GPP Only

Key Stat Ranks: 11th SG: App | 35th BoB% | 23rd P4 AVG | 54th Par 5 BoB% | 8th GIR

Obviously, if you’re on FanDuel, Brian Harman makes more sense as a complete punt. But aside from him, Percy easily sticks out in this bottom of the barrel range as the 17th ranked golfer in my model. He missed the cut in his last start (RSM Classic), but it was by just one stroke. Before that event, Percy had finishes of T26, T59, T8, and T23 to start the 2020-21 PGA season. The upside is there despite the lack of course history (1-of-3 made cuts at El Camaleon, hasn’t played here since 2014) but he is absolutely a GPP only sort of play in my book.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Justin Thomas | DK: $11.4k, FD: $12.6k

Odds: 5/1 | CMR: #1 | Cash & GPP

In golf, you rarely see the sort of odds which JT carries this week. He’s clearly the class of the field and is top form while averaging a 5th place finish and 98.3 DKFP over his previous five starts.

Tony Finau | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 18/1 | CMR: #13 | GPP Preferred

Solid GPP pivot off of the other pricey golfers. Crushes Par 5 scoring (1st in field in P5 BoB%) and he’s going to find his second career PGA win sooner rather than later, in my opinion.

Corey Conners | DK: $9k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 28/1 | CMR: #18 | Cash & GPP

Three top 10s in his last four starts. Very unpredictable putter but his incredible ball striking will usually keep him in tournaments. I’ll take a shot on the hot form.

Sebastian Munoz | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.1k

Odds: 55/1 | CMR: #25 | GPP Preferred

Munoz burned a lot of people at the RSM Classic but, to be fair, that was an odd week for a lot of guys with the multi-course rotation in play. Prior to that event, Munoz was one of the most consistent golfers on Tour with ten consecutive made cuts which included seven top 25 finishes and three top 10s. In case something did go awry with his game, I’ll stick with Munoz as a GPP play myself.

Scott Piercy | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 70/1 | CMR: #4 | Cash & GPP

Piercy always makes me nervous as a cash game recommendation but he’s rolling with three top 20s in his last four starts. He also has appealing course history with four straight made cuts at El Camaleon GC, with finishes of 26th (2019), 6th (2018), 4th (2016), and 16th (2014). He could be a tad chalky this week so if you want to go underweight on him in GPPs, I’d be fine with that.

John Huh | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 125/1 | CMR: #3 | Cash & GPP

Huh has made eight of his last nine cuts and is really rounding into form with a pair of top 20s in his last three appearances. He hoisted the trophy at this event back in 2011 and has made 5-of-7 cuts at this course in total. The irons are clicking (9th in SG: App) and he’s knocking in a load of birdies (2nd in BoB%). I’m fine with Huh in any format this week.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Harris English | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.5k

Alternate: Emiliano Grillo | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.9k

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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