Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions! 

The 2018 Mayakoba Golf Classic ⛳️

The PGA Tour is set up this week to head south of the border for the Mayakoba Golf Classic held at the El Camaleon Golf Club in the Playa del Carmen region in Mexico. The field this week, while not star-studded, will still feature 16 of the world’s top 60 golfers teeing it up. With a field of around 130 players, the top 70 (and ties) after Friday’s round will move on to play the weekend.

El Camaleon GC is a Par 71 layout that stretches 6,987 yards featuring three Par 5's and four Par 3's. As long as winds stay pretty mild, we can expect plenty of birdies ahead, with a winning score to be in the high-teens. The fairways here have some tight landing areas and plenty of hazards, including trees, to deal with. The paspalum-style greens here will also play at average to slower speeds. Since this is a shorter course by PGA standards, a popular strategy players may deploy will be to “club down” off the tee in an effort to keep their ball out of trouble and have a more optimal second shot. A healthy approach game will be paramount as well as excellent Par 5 scoring, as around 35% of birdies made here will come on those three holes. With all that covered, let’s hop into an early look at the weather, some stats to key in on and some top plays for me this week!

Weather ⛅

As usual for any event with a cut, we will look at weather for the first two rounds to determine if there is any advantage to be had for either the AM/PM or PM/AM waves. This week looks like another week in which weather should not play into our decision making. The winds are forecasted to hardly break 10 mph and the heat should not be too overbearing as temperatures reach into the mid-80's on both Thursday and Friday. As always, since this is being written on Tuesday, check the weather closer to when things tee off just in case!

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 25%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%) | 25%

3. Par 4 Average (P4 Avg) | 20%

4. Par 5 Average (P5 Avg) | 20%

5. Proximity to the Hole (Proximity) | 10%

*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentages I put on each category.

High Priced Targets

Rickie Fowler (DK: $11.5k | FD: $12.5k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Fowler made a Sunday surge last week in Las Vegas, shooting a final round 63 and coming away with a T4 finish. He’s improved on his finishing position dating back to The Open Championship following his T28 finish there with final results of T17, T12, T8, T7 and the aforementioned T4. He also finished runner-up in his first appearance here for the 2017 iteration of this tournament, so there is plenty to like about Fowler’s winning potential this week if you can afford him. Statistically, he should have all the right tools in his bag to set up for success. He ranks 10th in the field in SG: App, 19th in Proximity, 3rd in Par 4 Avg, 1st in Par 5 Avg, and 5th in BoB%. Perhaps he may be too pricey to take in cash but he’s most certainly worthy of plenty of GPP exposure. Fowler is once again the favorite to win this week at 8:1 odds.

Emiliano Grillo (DK: $9.7k | FD: $11.5k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

These are salaries we’re not used to paying for Grillo but he’s had two strong finishes of T14 and T2 in his last three events and he’s posted top-10 finishes in both of his career starts at El Camaleon GC in the past two years. In a weaker field, there is definitely room for Grillo to make some waves this week. He checks in at 3rd in the field in SG: App, 27th in Proximity, 63rd in P4 Avg, 34th in P5 Avg, and 27th in BoB%. He’s shown a bit of volatility going back to the end of last season, so that will likely keep him off my radar for cash but it’s fair to assume that he may go overlooked in tournaments and he carries some winning upside with 25:1 odds.

Mid-Range Targets

CT Pan (DK: $8.1k | FD: $9.3k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Pan has been a favorite cash building block of mine in recent months and this week will be no different. On shorter courses, like El Camaleon GC, Pan’s lack of length doesn’t handicap him so much. He also enters this week in very solid form with finishes of T22, T23, T30, T38 and T4 in his past five worldwide starts. Pan also has an all-around steady game that should fit this course nicely, as he ranks 32nd in SG: App, 38th in Proximity, 41st in P4 Avg, 34th in P5 Avg, and 21st in BoB%. In two trips to this course, he hasn’t had incredible success but he made the cut both times. He’s been playing much better golf as of late and, while he may not be a major threat to win at 45:1 odds, he is a great bet to card a top-25 finish.

Patrick Rodgers (DK: $7.8k | FD: $9.3k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Rodgers isn’t traditionally a guy I’ve targeted in DFS golf but lately it seems he has been putting things together. He finished T41 last week but he was in the mix among the leaders before fading a bit on the weekend. Prior to that, he had reeled off three consecutive top-25 results. In two of the past three years, Rodgers also has 10th and 14th place finishes at this event. Statistically, he doesn’t jump off the page, as he ranks 51st in SG: App, 60th in Proximity, 22nd in P4 Avg, 86th in P5 Avg, and 46th in BoB%, however his numbers in recent weeks look much better -- particularly where he ranks in BoB% (14th) and P4 Avg (3rd) in the past 12 weeks. His DFS salaries just seem a tad too low for the upside that he presents, and with 50:1 odds, I think you can make a case for him as being viable in all formats.

Low Priced Targets

Anders Albertson (DK: $7.2k | FD: $8k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Albertson is a newcomer to the PGA Tour and has found some success rather quickly after posting a T5 finish at the Sanderson Farms Championship a couple of weeks ago and followed that up with a T28 in Las Vegas for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. In his short time on Tour, statistically, he has shined immensely. He ranks 2nd in SG: App, 17th in Proximity, 4th in P4 Avg, 81st in P5 Avg, and 3rd in BoB%. This will be his career debut at the Mayakoba Golf Classic and he is probably a bit too “green” to be considered for cash at this point but I really love his upside in tournaments. For someone this cheap, with 80:1 odds, it makes sense to give him a look!

Joel Dahmen (DK: $6.8k | FD: $9.2k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

If you’ve read these newsletters in recent months, you’ll know Dahmen was a fairly common mainstay when it came to the players in the value department. Rostering Dahmen this week, particularly at his extremely low price on DraftKings, opens up plenty of flexibility elsewhere and I believe he can be considered cash game viable for sure. He finds himself landing in what I would consider the “solid” range of all of the key stats I’m looking at this week. Dahmen is 40th in SG: App, 44th in Proximity, 48th in P4 Avg, 52nd in P5 Avg, and 43rd in BoB%. He’s definitely a guy that may make you sweat a bit on cut day but, again, a large draw for him is his low salary. A major plus, however, is his T23 finish that he came away with at this event last year. He’s not a major threat to win by any means, with 125:1 odds, but could be a guy that lands around a top-30 finish and lets you get some guys with more win equity into your lineups.

Quick Hits - Others to Consider

High Priced

- Gary Woodland (DK: $10.7k | $11.8k) | Cash & GPP | Woodland continues to be an elite option with three straight top-10's. Finished 2nd here in 2016 and he’s playing some of the best golf of his career right now.

- Cameron Champ (DK: $9.1k | FD: $9.4k) | Cash (FD) & GPP | Kind of a “free square” on FanDuel, as he is priced far too low. As I noted last week, this is an exciting rookie to watch out for. Champ is 1st in P4 Avg, 9th in P5 Avg, 1st in BoB%.

Mid Priced

- Sam Ryder (DK: $8.7k | FD: $9.6k) | Cash & GPP | 3rd and 4th place finishes inside his last three starts. Great iron player -- ranks 4th in SG: App, 9th in Proximity, 15th in P4 Avg, 14th in P5 Avg, 11th in BoB%. Strike while the irons hot and fire him up.

- Abraham Ancer (DK: $8.4k | FD: $10k) | Cash & GPP | The top-ranked Mexican player in the world playing in his home country with three top-10 finishes in his last five starts? Makes for a great option. 9th place finish here last year.

Low Priced

- Brian Gay (DK: $6.9k | FD: $8.6k) | Cash & GPP | One of the best cheap “course horse” targets. Hasn’t missed a cut here in eight appearances. Not a ton of upside but very solid cut equity safety.

- Bronson Burgoon (DK: $6.9k | FD: $8.7k) | GPP Only | A very boom/bust option worthy of some GPP exposure. Followed his T2 finish at the CIMB Classic with a missed cut at last week's Shriners Hopitals for Children Open.

*Please Note: Bronson Burgoon has withdrawn from the tournament*

We’ll be hosting a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar freeroll!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd-3rd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt or mug

• BONUS - If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That'll wrap things up for this week! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Best of luck!

Let us know if you enjoyed this issue with a 👍/👎