Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview ⛳️

After a one week break, the PGA Tour returns to North America and is setting up to head south of the border for the Mayakoba Golf Classic held at the El Camaleon Golf Club in the Playa del Carmen region of Mexico. The 132-player field may not be filled to the brim with stud-tier players but we still have quite a bit of outstanding talent to choose from, as 24 of the world’s top 100 golfers are on site ready to tee it up. This is also the first event in a while that will possess a cut, so the traditional “top 65 after 36 holes” cut rule is in effect.

El Camaleon GC is a Par 71 layout that stretches 6,987 yards and features three Par 5s and four Par 3s. As long as winds stay relatively calm, we can expect plenty of birdies ahead with a winning score to be in the high-teens. The fairways here have some tight landing areas and plenty of hazards to contend with. The paspalum-style greens here will also play at average to slower speeds. Since this is a shorter course by PGA standards, a popular strategy players may deploy will be to “club down” off the tee in an effort to keep their ball out of trouble and have a more optimal second shot. A healthy approach game will be paramount as well as excellent Par 5 scoring, as around 35% of birdies made here will come on those three holes. With all that covered, let’s hop into an early look at the weather, some stats to key in on and some top plays for me this week!

Weather ⛅

The forecast is a bit tricky this week. While sustained wind speeds are projected to be in the single digits across the first two rounds, there is a significant amount of rain in the forecast for Thursday and Friday. The course is already going to be pretty soft due to rainfall leading up to Thursday’s opening round so the concern here is just how playable will the course be? These guys can play through some of the lighter rain but course conditions could end up being pretty sloppy until we hit the weekend. It’s pretty tough to give either wave an advantage, considering we could be looking at some stoppages in play. As always, the forecast is linked to the image below. Run a final weather check Wednesday night before making any final lineup decisions.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 25%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%) | 25%

3. Par 4 Average (P4 Avg) | 20%

4. Par 5 Average (P5 Avg) | 20%

5. Proximity to the Hole (Proximity) | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Tony Finau | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.5k

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Vegas: 20/1 | Custom Model Rank: #1

The form isn’t the best thing going right now for Finau, after recording a couple of disappointing results in his last two starts (T53, T59) so I’m looking at him more as a GPP play. He does pop up exceedingly well as the top ranked golfer in my player model for this week, so we’ll see if Finau can snap that form back more in line with what we’re used to seeing out of him. He’s had some decent success at El Camaleon GC, making the cut in 2-of-3 starts with a 16th place finish last year and a 7th place finish in 2014. Finau ranks 5th in SG: App, 27th in BoB%, 34th in P4 Avg., 16th in P5 Avg., and 38th in Proximity. Really it’s just the putter that has been letting him down (99th in SG: Putting) and as is always the case, that is the one part of every golfer’s game that can improve (or worsen) drastically in any given week. Otherwise, he should be pretty golden tee to green (1st in SG: T2G).

Lanto Griffin | DK: $9k, FD: $10.3k

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Vegas: 33/1 | Custom Model Rank: #3

It still feels a bit strange paying these sorts of salaries for Lanto Griffin but at the same time, he probably has arguably the best form in the field. He has finished no worse than T18 in his last six PGA starts and has a win (Houston Open) and a T3 (Greenbrier) thrown into the mix. The course history is lacking a bit, with just a 61st place finish in his lone appearance at El Camaleon GC in 2017. But he crushes the stat sheet, ranking 29th in SG: App, 2nd in BoB%, 1st in P4 Avg., 10th in P5 Avg., and 73rd in Proximity. His putter is carrying him quite a bit (1st in SG: Putting), but as long as there’s no major regression on the greens, we should see another top 20 result in order. However, his ownership may be high enough in GPPs where he could be worth a fade in case he significantly underperforms. I’ll probably continue to look in his direction for cash games as a higher priced golfer in more balanced builds.

Mid-Priced Targets

Denny McCarthy | DK: $8.4k, FD: $10.1k

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Vegas: 40/1 | Custom Model Rank: #10

Given how reliant McCarthy is on his putter (2nd in SG: Putting), he hasn’t typically been a guy I would consider outside of GPPs. However, I may be changing that mindset since he has just been too consistent lately to ignore. He has made the weekend in eight of his last nine starts with an average finish of 19th in the eight starts where he made the cut. Overall, he ranks 99th in SG: App, 5th in BoB%, 11th in P4 Avg., 21st in P5 Avg., and 108th in Proximity. Clearly, his irons leave a lot to be desired. But his short game is so strong that he can typically make up the ground that he loses on his approach shots. The course history isn’t incredible but he has fought his way into the weekend in both of his starts at El Camaleon in the last two seasons. Solid chance for another top 20 finish and if he happens to excel on his approaches, he could easily churn out a top five result.

Harris English | DK: $8k, FD: $9.9k

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Vegas: 50/1 | Custom Model Rank: #19

English’s relationship with El Camaleon GC is one of the “love/hate” variety. He won here back in 2013 but followed his next five appearances up with results of 37th, MC, MC, MC, and 68th. Something in his bag of tricks is really working lately, however, after he has finished T6 or better in three of his last four starts. He is pretty hit or miss on the stat sheet, ranking 77th in SG: App, 55th in BoB%, 10th in P4 Avg., 19th in P5 Avg., and 102nd in Proximity. While he’s another golfer who may not have the sharpest irons, he does lead the field in greens in regulation and I have a hard time imagining he falters too much this week and misses the cut.

Low-Priced Targets

Xinjun Zhang | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.9k

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Vegas: 80/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2

Zhang has been a favorite pick for me across his last few starts. Despite his relatively lackluster T38 finish at the WGC - HSBC Champions a couple weeks ago, I’ll look to go right back to him at these sort of prices. Zhang tore up the Korn Ferry Tour this past year and has wasted very little time translating his skills over to the PGA Tour this season while carding a couple of top 10s and a T16 within his last four events. He shines on paper, ranking 9th in SG: App, 3rd in BoB%, 5th in P4 Avg., 42nd in P5 Avg., and 34th in Proximity. Zhang will likely be a core selection for me in all formats this week.

Kevin Chappell | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.2k

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Vegas: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #49

Chappell is by no means a safe investment this week. We haven’t seen him play since the Houston Open a month ago when he missed the cut. You have to assume there is still some rust he needs to shake off after missing the better part of a year with a back injury. However, in his first PGA start this season at The Greenbrier, he fired off a round two 59, so he’s clearly still capable of some incredible golf -- it just comes down to consistency. I’ll skip mentioning the stats for him because, really, we just haven’t seen him play enough after his 2018 back surgery. Prior to getting hurt, Chappell was a pretty steady top 50 ranked golfer with an excellent iron game. If you need a cheap golfer, he’s worth a shot in some riskier GPP builds. There’s always a chance he can string everything together for a full four rounds.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Viktor Hovland | DK: $11.2k, FD: $11.7k

GPP Preferred | Vegas: 18/1 | CMR: #6

His premium prices keep him more of a GPP target for me this week. He has fizzled a bit in his last two starts but the irons are just too strong for him to stay down for long. A bounce back into the top 10 in a somewhat weaker field could be in order here.

Russell Knox | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.8k

GPP Preferred | Vegas: 25/1 | CMR: #20

Form is trending back in the right direction and he is probably the top “course horse” at this event. He’s made 6/6 cuts at El Camaleon with finishes of 9th, 3rd, and 2nd (lost in a playoff) in his last three trips down to Playa del Carmen.

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.7k

Cash & GPP | Vegas: 28/1 | CMR: #16

No course history here but that won’t keep me from rolling out big Scottie Scheffler as a core play this week. If you can excuse the T74 at The Shriners, Scheffler has been nothing but consistently strong across the PGA and Korn Ferry Tours lately. He should be worth the investment this week.

JT Poston | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.8k

Cash & GPP | Vegas: 50/1 | CMR: #4

Things align pretty nicely here for Poston. The form is looking nice and he has finished 21st, 14th, and 35th in his three starts at El Camaleon GC. Poston may not excel in any one particular facet, but he’s just one of those golfers that is doing everything well right now. Pretty solid mid-range buy.

Cameron Tringale | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9k

Cash & GPP | Vegas: 66/1 | CMR: #13

Tringale has just been grinding out cuts and solid finishes recently. You also kind of just have to throw out his lackluster course history, now that he’s playing some of the best golf of his career -- but he did land a 25th place finish in his last Mayakoba appearance.

Doc Redman | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.7k

GPP Preferred | Vegas: 100/1 | CMR: #30

Strong birdie making potential here (7th in BoB%) and his irons have been sharp (8th in SG: App). If the putter gets warmed up, Redman could end up being one of the better values on the board.

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Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll be around in chat, so just tag me if you'd like a second opinion on a player or just have any other general PGA DFS questions!

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