Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!

Tournament & Field 🏆

For the first time in over six decades the PGA Tour will be playing the same course in back-to-back weeks. We will once again see many of the world’s best tee it up at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio -- this time, for the more familiar Memorial Tournament. The obvious headline this week? Tiger Woods is in the field and will be playing his first competitive golf since The Genesis Invitational back in mid-February. This event annually plays host to an extremely high level of competition, as the world’s best show up in droves to honor one of the game’s greats, Jack Nicklaus, at his home self-designed course. Nearly every big name in the golfing landscape will be teeing it up this week. There are 22 of the top 25 ranked golfers in the world in attendance, as well as 43 of the top 50. A notable difference between last week and this week, aside from contrasting course conditions which I will detail below, is the reduced field size. Last week’s Workday Charity Open featured a normal full-sized 156-player field. The Memorial will host only 133 golfers, yet the cut rule will stay the same -- the top 65 (including ties) after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend.

Due to the reduced number of golfers and the immense overall level of talent, the pricing on both DraftKings and FanDuel is very soft. Just about any lineup you make using all, or nearly all, of your allotted salary will be loaded with stud golfers. With more than half of the field guaranteed to make the cut this week, I believe this opens up the ability to tap into golfers priced in the lower salary ranges so that you can load up on the studs who carry a high amount of win equity. Also, in GPPs, one of the best ways to ensure a non-duplicated lineup this week (or any week) is to leave a few hundred dollars on the table. The optimal DFS lineups in PGA rarely use 100% salary.

The Course Preview ⛳

Muirfield Village Golf Club

Par 72 - 7,456 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass/Poa (mixed)

Cut Line Last Five Years: +2, +1, +4, -1, Even

Difficulty Rank Last Five Years: 13th, 30th, 13th, 36th, 23rd

Winners Last Five Years:

2019: Patrick Cantlay (-19)

2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-15)

2017: Jason Dufner (-13)

2016: William McGirt (-15)

2015: David Lingmerth (-15)

As alluded to above and mentioned in last week’s newsletter, course conditions at Muirfield will be quite different in comparison to the Workday Charity Open. The rough was cut to about 3.5'' last week and still caused issues for most golfers who didn’t find the short grass. It was allowed to grow and thicken even more since then and should sit at about 4.5” for this tournament and play as treacherous as ever. The putting surfaces are also going to be increased from 11.5 on the stimpmeter, all the way up to 14, which is extremely fast . Tee boxes are also moving back to their usual placement. In general, we should anticipate fewer overall scoring opportunities than we saw for the WCO but some of the increased level of difficulty could be counteracted by the overall strong field. But my guess is the winning score will be somewhere in the range of 15-under par, barring extreme weather conditions.

Much of this is going to be repeated from last week but I’ll go through a brief course breakdown again for those who may not have played PGA DFS for the WCO while also hitting on how the course changes could affect overall play. Muirfield Village GC was designed by The Golden Bear himself, Jack Nicklaus. The tree-lined fairways are wide by PGA Tour standards and golfers hit them upwards of 70% of the time most years. Due to the thick and penalizing rough, golfers often elect to go “less than driver” off the tee in order to increase their chances of landing on those fairways. There are 13 water hazards and 74 sand traps in play as part of the course’s defense. The overall design makes this very much a “second shot” course, so approach shots are the most important aspect of a golfer’s game this week. It is no surprise that the top three golfers from last week’s tournament (Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, and Viktor Hovland) all finished inside the top six in the field in strokes gained on approach shots. Guys don’t have to be overly long off the tee but their mid-to-long range irons need to be on point, as the vast majority of approach shots will come from the 150-200 yard range. Since Muirfield is a Par 72, that means there are four Par 5s in play. The longest Par 5 hole is just 583 yards, so those holes can be reachable in two shots for nearly everyone in the field. Getting birdie (or better) on these Par 5s is a must. There are a few extremely tough Par 4s, so I’ll be looking for consistent scorers on those holes as well. Due to the increased green speeds, I believe we’ll be seeing quite a bit more three-putts in comparison to the WCO. Don’t be surprised if we see several complete meltdowns from some golfers this week.

Weather ⛅

Thursday: Sustained winds are set to be <10 mph in the morning, picking up to around 15 mph near midday and decreasing slightly towards the late afternoon. Potential for 20+ mph winds nearly all day. There is a definite possibility of rain throughout the day as well, which could bring stoppages into play, particularly if lightning is involved. This is the primary day to pay attention to as we get closer to Thursday morning. While it is too tough to make an assessment now, a possible weather advantage could develop depending on how these round one conditions shape up.

Friday: Ideal conditions expected. Sustained winds should not get far above 5 mph. Plenty of sunshine and no significant rain threats as of now.

Weekend: Saturday will have pretty similar conditions to Friday. The final round on Sunday could possess some peskier winds, primarily in the afternoon, with some rain chances as well. These conditions only really matter if you’re playing weekend or showdown slates.

As always, try to run a final weather check Wednesday night. The forecast page is linked to the image below.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 35%

2. Par 5 Birdie or Better % (P5 BoB%) | 25%

3. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 20%

4. Driving Accuracy | 10%

5. Three-Putt Avoidance (3PA) | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Patrick Cantlay | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11.6k

Odds: 12/1 | Custom Model Rank: #1

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

I led off with Cantlay last week in this section and I see zero reasons not to go right back to him again. Cantlay didn’t really even play that well for most of the Workday Charity Open considering he made the cut right on the number, only shot two-under on Saturday (aka ‘Moving Day’) and yet he still finished inside the top 10… thanks to a final round of 65. If he can carry that final round momentum into this week, well, what’s not to like? Sure, Muirfield Village GC will play more difficult than it did last week but, as a reminder, Cantlay’s last two Memorial Tournament finishes included a win in 2019 and a 4th place finish in 2018. Also, courteous of a stronger field, he has seen his DFS salaries actually DECREASE on both sites -- particularly on DK where he will run you $800 less than he did at the WCO. Cantlay often impresses on the stat sheet as well and this week is no different. In this field, he ranks 7th in SG: App, 4th in P5 BoB%, 6th in P4 AVG, 43rd in Driving Accuracy, and 68th in 3PA. With so many elite players in the mix, I don’t believe Cantlay will be extremely chalky. Highly owned, sure. But he should certainly make for an excellent cash lineup anchor (9/9 cuts made this season) and he carries plenty of upside in GPPs as well.

Jon Rahm | DK: $9.3k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 20/1 | Custom Model Rank: #21

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

This is a friendly reminder that Jon Rahm is still the No. 2 ranked golfer in the world, yet he is obviously not priced as such… especially on DK where he has seen his price fall a whopping $1,600 from last week. Similar to Cantlay, Rahm also struggled at Muirfield last week where he too made the cut right on the number and then didn’t exactly show up on “Moving Day” when he shot a 75 (+3). However, the final round came and he went unconscious when he shot a Sunday best round of 64 (-8) which featured eight birdies and an eagle (plus two bogeys). If there is even a chance that we’ll see that particular Jon Rahm this week, then you have to have him somewhere in your player pool. Rahm ranks 47th in SG: App, 10th in P5 BoB%, 17th in P4 AVG, 31st in Driving Accuracy, and 2nd in 3PA. Last week, Rahm was the only player to rank inside the top 25 in both driving accuracy (T14) and driving distance (25th). If he continues to hit those long, straight drives this week, he’s going set himself up to have plenty of birdie looks with a few chances at eagle as well. Rahm has made 9/10 cuts this season with five top 10s, so despite his historical tendency to have the occasional meltdown round, he can probably still be used in cash (on DraftKings) but absolutely falls into play as an elite GPP target.

Mid-Priced Targets

Abraham Ancer | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 40/1 | Custom Model Rank: #12

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Ancer wasn’t in the field last week and hasn’t exactly had great success in his only two career starts at Muirfield (T65 in 2019, T57 in 2018) but he has been showcasing some exceptional skill this season, especially since the restart, and is playing some of the best golf of his career. Since the season resumed, Ancer has posted three straight top 15 finishes, including a solo runner-up at the RBC Heritage. His approach game is really dialed in right now and he is really limiting mistakes with just 18 total bogeys across his last 216 holes (8.3% bogey rate). In this field, Ancer ranks 9th in SG: App, 52nd in P5 BoB%, 22nd in P4 AVG, 29th in Driving Accuracy, and 34th in 3PA. Despite many signs pointing towards playing Ancer this week, I have a feeling he may go a tad overlooked. With Tiger in the field (who isn’t all that much more expensive than Ancer), more casual fans may test the PGA DFS waters and they may not be familiar with the top ranked Mexican golfer. Daniel Berger is also only $200-$300 more than Ancer and has been a top 10 machine across his last five events. So if someone is taking just one guy in this general range, odds are they’re going to click Berger’s name instead of Ancer. There really is just an embarrassment of riches to choose from this week, so you’re really splitting hairs when breaking down and comparing some of these guys. But Ancer appears to be an excellent golfer to go after across the board in both cash games and GPPs.

Billy Horschel | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 80/1 | Custom Model Rank: #56

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

There are some more obvious and likely safer options I could highlight in this range (I’ll mention some in the ‘Quick Hits’ section) but I figured I would throw out a more contrarian play with Billy-Ho here. He’s coming off a T7 result at the WCO and also landed a T9 finish at last year’s Memorial Tournament, so he has shown the capability of taming this pretty difficult course. It’s tough to trust a golfer’s putter to stay hot, especially when these greens should play noticeably tougher this week, but Horschel was 5th in SG: Putting at last week’s WCO (gained +6.28 strokes on the field). His tee to green game wasn’t bad either, particularly over the final two rounds where his +3.27 SG: T2G ranked 13th in the field. His long term key stats are a bit ugly, however, as he checks in 82nd in SG: App, 104th in P5 BoB%, 38th in P4 AVG, 39th in Driving Accuracy, and 52nd in 3PA. With all that in mind, Horschel isn’t someone you should target for cash games. Really, we’re just looking to strike while the iron is hot. He does have five top 10s in 15 events this season, after all, so upside is certainly on the table with him this week and I’m willing to bet his ownership will be in the single digits despite coming in off of a strong performance.

Low-Priced Targets

Lucas Glover | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.7k

Odds: 125/1 | Custom Model Rank: #20

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

It’s impossible to ignore Glover’s consistency since the restart where he has strung together four straight top 25 finishes while ranking 3rd in SG: App and 2nd in BoB% in that span. Glover hasn’t had immense success at Muirfield but he has at least made the cut at The Memorial for each of the last six years. As the 49th and 45th highest-priced option on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively, you really don’t need too much more out of him beyond a made cut (in cash games) but it is nice to know he has been steadily churning out those top 25 finishes lately. Looking at season long metrics, Glover ranks 23rd in SG: App, 46th in P5 BoB%, 42nd in P4 AVG, 24th in Driving Accuracy, and 112th in 3PA. The three putt avoidance, especially on these tough greens, is a bit worrisome. Don’t be surprised by the occasional double bogey… he did have four of them at the Charles Schwab Challenge afterall (but still managed a T23). I do prefer him more for cash games than GPPs, simply because I’m expecting high ownership and he could easily regress back towards mediocrity. However, a fifth straight top 25 would easily pay off these salaries in cash games and the overall risk still feels fairly low when over half of the field is going to make the cut.

Henrik Norlander | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.7k

Odds: 250/1 | Custom Model Rank: #28

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Norlander is a clear standout punt play this week after landing a T31 finish at the WCO along with a T12 and T41 in the two tournaments prior. In that time he has also shot par or below in all twelve rounds. He has simply been playing better than plenty of guys who cost upwards of $1,000 or more than him and I wouldn’t even be opposed to rolling him out in cash if you want to load up on three or four stud golfers with a high collective amount of win equity. Norlander ranks 58th in SG: App, 61st in P5 BoB%, 63rd in P4 AVG, 7th in Driving Accuracy, and 74th in 3PA. This field may be stacked but he has a great shot at finding his way past the cut line. If he can do that, any DFS points scored and positions gained over the weekend should just be considered a bonus. Per Bovada, he is an 8/1 bet to land a top 20 finish, so some GPP upside is there.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Dustin Johnson | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 16/1 | CMR: #7 | GPP Preferred

Everyone in this salary range is in play but, despite coming off of a win in his last start (Travelers), I have a feeling that DJ will be the lowest-owned ‘tier one’ player this week, so I’d use him as a GPP leverage option. He could keep his momentum rolling.

Viktor Hovland | DK: $9.5k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 22/1 | CMR: #2 | GPP Preferred

Most would consider Hovland a cash lock but I do have two concerns this week. I’m worried about potential burnout (he’s played every week since the restart) as well as a poor putting performance that could ultimately lead to him not paying off these salaries. He led the field at Muirfield last week in SG: T2G (+14.95 strokes) but lost -1.42 strokes putting. As already mentioned, the greens will play tougher this week, so can he overcome a poor putter and turn in a fantasy performance necessary from the 8th most expensive player?

Xander Schauffele | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 25/1 | CMR: #6 | Cash & GPP

Xander would be my preferred cash option to drop down to over Hovland due to similar winning upside and more safety (12/13 cuts made this season)… still love both for GPPs. He finished T14 at the WCO and T14 at The Memorial last year. Just one finish worse than T24 in his last eight starts as well.

Tiger Woods | DK: $9k, FD: $10.6k

Odds: 20/1 | CMR: #38 | GPP Preferred

He’s back so… ya gotta play him in at least one lineup, right? That’s my rule anyhow. It also doesn’t hurt that he has won here five times before. We’ll see how long it takes for him to shake the rust this week.

Daniel Berger | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #16 | Cash & GPP

Berger has that insane streak of 32 rounds shooting par or better and hasn’t had a finish worse than T9 in his last five starts, so it’s going to be hard to expect a poor performance from him this week. Only concern here is lack of course history but with the way he has been playing… who cares?

Kevin Streelman | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #18 | Cash & GPP

Streelman’s last six starts have resulted in the following finishes: 7th, 4th, 44th, 13th, 8th, and 18th. He was 2nd in the field in driving accuracy last week and ranks 11th on the season (in this field) in P5 BoB%. Slight concern he turns into a chalk bomb, but I’ll trust the recent form and course history here. I believe you also have to consider Ian Poulter as well, who is the exact same price as Streelman (on both sites).

Troy Merritt | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.1k

Odds: 200/1 | CMR: #57 | GPP Preferred

His game is shaping up, with a T22 last week and a T8 the week prior at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Merritt displayed excellent iron play at the WCO where he ranked 5th in SG: App while gaining just over seven strokes on the field. He finished T17 at The Memorial last year, so the upside is there.

Stewart Cink | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.2k

Odds: 400/1 | CMR: #85 | GPP Preferred

Cink is far from the worst punt on the board this week. Despite being very reliant on the putter, he finished T17 here last week and has made the cut at Muirfield in 13 of his last 14 starts with an average finish of 31st. He’s not going to be out there competing for a win come Sunday but another sneaky top 25 wouldn’t be the craziest expectation.

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That will do it for our Memorial preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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