Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview

The PGA Tour travels up to Dublin, Ohio to take a visit to Jack’s Place, aka Muirfield Village Golf Club, for the 2019 Memorial Tournament. This is another event that carries invitational status, so there are only 120 players in the field this week but the top 70 (and ties) will move on to play the weekend. Typically, this would result in us expecting a higher “6/6 rate” but last week, under similar circumstances, we saw only about 3% of lineups hit the all-important 6/6 mark. You just never know who is going to bust in any given week… or if you're Paul Casey, you'll come down with the flu and withdraw after the first round! With one of the largest purses up for grabs, the Memorial Tournament annually sees one of the strongest non-Major (or WGC) fields of the season. Seven of the top 10 golfers in the world, and 40 of the top 60, will be in attendance this week.

Muirfield Village GC (click for course flyover) was designed by The Golden Bear himself, Jack Nicklaus. It is a Par 72 track that stretches just under 7,400 yards. The tree-lined fairways are some of the widest on TOUR and golfers hit them upwards of 70% of the time most years. However, the rough can be treacherous to shoot out of, so wayward shots off the tee need to be avoided at all costs. There are 13 water hazards and 73 sand traps in play as part of the course’s defense. The overall design makes this very much a “second shot” course, so approach shots are the most important aspect of a golfer’s game this week. Guys don’t have to be long with the driver but their mid-to-long range irons need to be on point, as the vast majority of approach shots will come from the 150-200 yard range. Being a Par 72, this means there are four Par 5’s in play and they’re all reachable in two shots for essentially everyone in the field. Getting birdie (or better) on these holes is a must. There are a few extremely tough Par 4’s, so I’ll be looking for consistent scorers on those holes as well. The bentgrass greens are small, run fast, and are protected by some of the aforementioned bunkers. Golfers who can get up-and-down out of those green-side bunkers will have a solid advantage. This tournament has seen a winning score between 13-under and 15-under each of the last five years and has gone to a playoff in four of those seasons. The field is strong enough and the course is tough enough to where I’d be surprised if we see any one player run away with it this week. Now, let’s get a look at the weather (which could play a factor), the top stats I’m weighing in my tournament model, and some golfers to consider for the Memorial Tournament!

Weather ⛅

So, Thursday’s weather will be our main concern here and is 100% worth monitoring as we get closer to the opening round teeing off. Scattered storms are a threat throughout the day on Thursday but, assuming there are no stoppages, then there is currently a pretty clear point in the first round where both sustained winds and gusts pick up considerably around 2 pm ET (see graphic below). Friday will have perfect conditions all day, so for now, I’m giving the advantage to the AM/PM wave. Tee times are not currently posted at the time of this writing but, if the forecast holds, I would personally have about 70% of my player pool consist of AM/PM golfers with some lineups consisting of only AM/PM wave "stacks." Of course, anything can change, so check the Dublin, Ohio forecast as close to lock on Thursday morning as you can. I will link the forecast page to the image below.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 35%

2. Par 5 Birdie or Better % (P5 BoB%) | 25%

3. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 20%

4. Proximity 150-200 yards | 15%

5. Sand Save % (SS%) | 5%

High-Priced Targets

Patrick Cantlay (DK: $10.2k, FD: $11k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Cantlay is just a top 10 machine this year and, as long as he makes it into the weekend rounds, there hasn’t been anything stopping him from ending up near the top of the leaderboard. He has missed two cuts in his 12 stroke-play events this year but has racked up eight top 10 finishes, including back-to-back T3’s coming into this week. His only other results (when he made the weekend cut) was a T15 and a T17. This will be his third trip to Muirfield Village -- he carded a T35 in his debut appearance in 2017 and followed that up with a solo 4th place finish last year. He has every tool in his bag that it will take to win this week. Statistically, he ranks 13th in SG: App, 34th in P5 BoB%, 1st in P4 AVG, 2nd in Proximity 150-200 yards, and 50th in SS%. The only way I see a poor outing from Cantlay is if he goes wild off the tee and gets caught up in the penalizing rough, as he ranks 89th in Driving Accuracy. But, with the wider fairways, my concerns there are mitigated. With 16:1 odds, he makes for a strong play in both cash and GPP formats and checks in at 3rd in my tournament model for this event.

Matt Kuchar (DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.9k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

There is a profound feeling of safety when you hover your cursor (or finger) over Matt Kuchar’s name when constructing a PGA lineup. That may make him one of the chalkier plays this week but it’s chalk that I’ll gladly bite on. Kuchar has made all 13 of his cuts this year with a pair of wins and four consecutive starts, finishing no worse than 12th heading into the week. His course history might be tops in the field, as he has made the weekend at Muirfield 11/11 times, including winning the Memorial in 2013 and, overall, he has amassed seven top 10’s. His average finishing position at Muirfield is 9th… in eleven tries! That’s about as elite of course history as you will ever find. He rolls in this season in first-class form and ranks 5th in SG: App, 5th in P5 BoB%, 5th in P4 AVG, 13th in Proximity 150-200 yards, and 5th in SS%. Quite a bit of fifth place rankings, eh? Kuch is an 18:1 favorite who should be a target across the board and ranks 2nd in this week's tournament model.

Mid-Priced Targets

Gary Woodland (DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.4k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

After a brief three week stretch where he had a pair of missed cuts at the Masters and Wells Fargo Championship, it was encouraging to see Woodland card a T8 finish at the PGA Championship. That brought his total of top 10 finishes up to eight on the year in 16 starts. He returns to Muirfield where he has made 6/8 cuts, including a 4th place finish in 2016, and he has the perfect game to dominate a course like this. He is 16th in SG: App, 4th in P5 BoB%, 10th in P4 AVG, 16th in Proximity 150-200 Yards, and 90th in SS%. Woodland is dominant tee to green but just has to string together a good putting week to really push for a win. At the PGA Championship, he trailed only Brooks Koepka in SG: T2G but lost 1.21 strokes per round with the putter, which resulted in him losing out on a better finish -- otherwise he would have been alongside Dustin Johnson applying the final round pressure on Koepka. Woodland, at 28:1 odds, will be another strong option in all formats and ranks 13th in the model.

Henrik Stenson (DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.2k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Muirfield is built to be a second shot course and that should allow for a guy like Stenson to freely spam a 3-wood off the tee all he wants while capitalizing on his biggest strength -- his iron game. Stenson hasn’t been his usual self this season but he has reeled off five consecutive cuts. Though, for these prices, simply a “made cut” isn’t what we’re looking for. A positive sign, however, would be Stenson’s T13 finish at Muirfield last season -- a course in which he hadn’t competed on since 2013. He ranks 1st overall in the field in SG: App, 58th in P5 BoB%, 76th in P4 AVG, 7th in Proximity 150-200 yards, and 82nd in SS%. His putting woes (86th in SG: Putting) have really put a damper on his scoring upside this season but the fact that he gained strokes on the greens at the PGA Championship is encouraging. He simply lost strokes off the tee that week, which shouldn’t be as much of an issue here. I don’t mind him for cash builds but I’d prefer to target him for GPPs. He has 40:1 odds and is ranked 12th in the tournament model.

Low-Priced Targets

Corey Conners (DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.5k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Conners will start to make a name for himself if he ever finds a consistent way to get putts to fall in the hole. He is dominant tee to green but is so unreliable with the flat stick (102nd in SG: Putting). Last week, at the Charles Schwab Challenge, he was one of only six players that finished inside the top 40 while losing more than half a stroke putting per round. He is 11th in SG: App, 90th in P5 BoB%, 62nd in P4 AVG, 3rd in Proximity 150-200 Yards, and 80th in SS%. He’s got the iron game to do incredibly well here in his Memorial debut but you definitely can’t trust someone who has made just 8/17 cuts in cash games. Throw him out in a tournament line or two and hope for the best once he whips out the putter! He has 125:1 odds and rates out 36th in my tournament model.

David Lingmerth (DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.7k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Here’s your ‘course horse’ punt of the week. Lingmerth is just a few Benjamins away from minimum salary on both sites. And yet, he is a perfect 6/6 on cuts made at Murifield Village GC and he even took home the trophy just a few years ago in 2015. Since then, he has carded a T27 here in 2016, T15 in 2017, and a T29 last year. He’s only competed in six events this season, in which he only has two made cuts to speak of. But at the very least, he is coming off of a T43 finish in his most recent start at the AT&T Byron Nelson where he was 25th in the field in strokes gained on approach shots. I’m not putting a ton of stock in this pick but there are far worse options you could deploy in a stars and scrubs lineup build!

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced

- Rory McIlroy (DK: $11.5k, FD: $12k) | GPP Preferred | Great track record at Muirfield with four top 10’s. Ranks 1st overall in the tournament model. I’ll have at least one Tiger line as usual but I’d much rather spend the high end dollars on Rory over someone like the Big Cat, Rose, or Fowler.

- Justin Thomas (DK: $9.3k, FD: $11.6k) | GPP Preferred* | If Thomas looks like the wrist injury is behind him, then he is instantly in play across the board at his DK price tag. I’d reserve him for GPPs on FanDuel regardless. 3rd in SG: App, 1st in P5 BoB%, and 2nd in P4 AVG. He hasn’t competed since the Masters but if there’s not much rust to shake off, he could easily win this thing. I'll be keeping an eye on the ol' Twitter machine and Golf Channel to see what people have to say about his practice rounds and what other preparation he'll be taking part in this week.

Mid-Priced

- Rory Sabbatini (DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.8k) | Cash & GPP | Why not ride the “Sabs Express” until the wheels fall off? He checks in at an affordable price even after three top 10’s in his last four starts. The only guys in the field who really rival his current form are McIlroy, Cantlay, and Kuchar. That’s it. He’s made 6/7 cuts at Muirfield.

- Emiliano Grillo (DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.7k) | Cash Preferred | Not a ton of upside shown from him this year, which is why he is the rare “cash preferred” play. But the cut equity is immense and in his limited starts at Muirfield, he has made all three of his cuts. Excellent iron player with very solid mid-long range approach shots.

Low-Priced

- Kevin Streelman (DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.4k) | Cash & GPP | Decent form coming into the week with four consecutive made cuts and a pair of 6th place finishes. Has also made four consecutive cuts at Muirfield with three top 20 finishes. Better value on FanDuel but playable across the board.

- Troy Merritt (DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.2k) | GPP Preferred | A near minimum salary player capable of making a ton of birdies -- ranks 14th in P5 BoB%. He has pair of top 10 finishes this season and has made 8/11 cuts overall. You likely can’t trust him in cash but you can jam in multiple high-end players alongside him in GPP builds.

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd-3rd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll be around in chat all week so just tag me if you'd like a second opinion on a player or just have any other general PGA DFS questions!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!