Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview

Welcome back for the 2019-20 PGA season! A beautiful thing for PGA golf fans is the lack of a lengthy off-season. We are just two weeks removed from Rory McIlroy’s TOUR Championship victory and now kick the new season off with A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier which is hosted at The Old White TPC in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia. This isn’t exactly a star-studded field, as we have just 20 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers in attendance with Bryson DeChambeau (OWGR No. 10) being the only top 10 ranked golfer on site this week. Still, this is an excellent opportunity for you to familiarize yourself with some of the younger talent that will be contending for years to come.

A significant thing to remember for this season is the new cut rule that is going into affect. Nearly every week, the traditional cut rule will now come down to the top 65 (and ties) after 36-holes when determining who will move on to play the final two rounds on the weekend. In previous seasons, as you may recall, the rule was “top 70 and ties after 36-holes.” With the new cut rules, the PGA is also doing away with secondary cuts which came into play when more than 78 players made it to the weekend. So, while it will be more difficult to get all six golfers in your lineups past the cutline, you will not have to worry about any 54-hole MDFs (made cut-didn’t finish). If a golfer makes the initial cut, they are guaranteed to play all four rounds barring a withdrawal or disqualification. We’ll certainly need to be ‘that much’ sharper this year in order to ensure maximum amounts of 6/6 exposure in our PGA DFS lineups but if you put in the research, it’ll pay off.

Moving on to our course preview! The Old White TPC is a Par 70 that plays just under 7,300 yards. For a Par 70, this is a pretty lengthy layout, however White Sulfur Springs, WV sits at an elevation of about 1,800 feet. With that factored in, we should expect this course to play closer to 7,000 yards. A major course defense is the thick, penalizing rough. However, these fairways are some of the easiest to hit on TOUR. The field average will typically hover just under 70% in terms of fairway accuracy. A strong approach game is always important and we’ll see plenty of wedges come into play as the majority of iron shots will come at a distance under 150 yards. Being a Par 70, Par 4 scoring is very crucial as well. Considering The Old White TPC played as one of the easiest courses on TOUR last year, bogey avoidance and birdie or better percentage will also play a key role in determining my player pool for the week. The importance for BoB% is pretty self-explanatory but you might wonder “why is bogey avoidance such a factor on an easy course?” Well, the thought process there would be: if a particular hole plays near one under par for most golfers, you don’t want your guys rolling in bogeys which would essentially cause them to lose two strokes to the majority of the field! Overall, any type of golfer can find success here -- whether they're a bomber, course manager, grinder, etc. So, with all of that said, let’s start the season off right and land ourselves in the green come Sunday!

Weather ⛅

Not much to be concerned about weather-wise this week. Overnight/early morning rain could soften the course up for the Thursday AM players -- which, if you’re one to make FRL bets, I’d definitely target that morning wave. But, overall, neither AM/PM or PM/AM waves should have any notable advantage. Sustained winds will rarely hit double-digits, if at all, and 12-15 mph gusts aren’t anything that professional golfers are unable to handle. As always, run a final forecast check Wednesday night before making any final decisions in case anything changes. The weather page will be linked to the image below.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

2. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 30%

3. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 25%

4. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

High-Priced Targets

Jason Kokrak | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.5k

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Vegas Odds: 16/1 | Custom Model Rank: 2nd

Kokrak had himself quite the year this past season when he made 22 of 23 cuts with five top 10s. He also rounded out the season with four consecutive top 20s (though, do remember some of those results came in playoff events with smaller fields). He doesn’t possess the best course history, with 3/5 made cuts at The Old White TPC. However, he finished T3 last year and he’s simply in the midst of some of the best form of his career. He excels on the stat sheet, ranking 1st in SG: App, 17th in P4 AVG, 9th in BoB%, and 24th in Bogey Avoidance. Kokrak’s wedges aren’t quite as polished as his long irons but I have a hard time seeing a poor result from him this week. As you see above, he shows up as the second ranked player in my personal model and carries the second best odds to win at 16/1.

Joaquin Niemann | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11k

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Vegas Odds: 20/1 | Custom Model Rank: 1st

Standing out as the top-rated play in my tournament model is the young gun, Joaquin Niemann. The 20-year-old is preparing to enter his second season as a full-time PGA Tour card holder. The 2018-19 season was pretty good to him, as he made 21/27 cuts. This included an end of season stretch where he made ten of his final eleven cuts with five top 25 finishes. In a weaker field, these elevated salaries are definitely warranted. He finished 29th in his debut at The Old White TPC in 2017 and drastically improved upon that with a 5th place finish here last year. In this field, he ranks 6th in SG: App, 2nd in P4 AVG, 46th in BoB%, and 25th in Bogey Avoidance. A below average putter troubled him much of last season, otherwise his BoB% would be higher. But he began to routinely pick up strokes on the greens to close out the schedule and given his solid success in his first two trips out to West Virginia, I have to credit him with some serious winning potential this go ‘round.

Mid-Priced Targets

Denny McCarthy | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.7k

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Vegas Odds: 66/1 | Custom Model Rank: 14th

McCarthy’s ball striking, or lack thereof, will likely leave him off of my radar for cash game builds but his short game is perhaps the best in the field and that will make him a prime GPP target. You never want to rely on a guy’s putter, but in McCarthy’s case he’s fairly consistent with the flat stick and ranks 1st overall in SG: Putting. Last year was his first appearance at The Old White TPC and he turned in a decent finish of 39th. He missed two cuts in his final seven starts last season (John Deere Classic & The Northern Trust) but out of the five events in which he made it to the weekend, he churned out a top 25 finish in four of them. In this week’s field he ranks 96th in SG: App, 17th in P4 AVG, 2nd in BoB%, and 6th in Bogey Avoidance. If his irons are even remotely solid this week then those 66/1 odds could wind up earning some bettors a nice payday. As I mentioned, he’s a ‘GPP only’ sorta play for me but the upside cannot be ignored.

Sepp Straka | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.9k

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Vegas Odds: 66/1 | Custom Model Rank: 35th

Straka was a bit of a late season darling among PGA DFS circles. The 2018-19 PGA Tour rookie only made 13/24 cuts on the season but he closed out the year making eight of his final eleven cuts which included finishes of T28 at the US Open, T11 at The Rocket Mortgage Classic, 12th at the Barracuda Championship, and 3rd at the Barbasol Championship. He ranks 19th in SG: App, 9th in P4 AVG, 1st in BoB%, and 73rd in Bogey Avoidance. If you can deal with some irritating bogeys here and there, the birdie making ability that Straka possesses is absolutely elite. If he continues to build on the solid overall form that he had to close out last season, given the weaker field this week, he could find himself in contention on Sunday.

Low-Priced Targets

Shawn Stefani | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.8k

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Vegas Odds: 125/1 | Custom Model Rank: 3rd

There is quite a lot of value to be had in the lower side of pricing this week. Stefani is a standout candidate considering the excellent form he had on display to close out the previous season when he made his final six cuts, including five straight top 40 finishes. At these prices, simply making the weekend would suffice but he should carry some legitimate top 25 upside. He has some strong course experience and has made 4/5 cuts at The Old White TPC with a 13th place finish in 2016 being his best result. Per the key stats, he ranks 10th in SG: App, 17th in P4 AVG, 28th in BoB%, and 13th in Bogey Avoidance. Between solid form, great metrics, and strong course knowledge/history, Stefani looks to be in play across all formats.

Kristoffer Ventura | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.3k

Cash Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Vegas Odds: 150/1 | Custom Model Rank: 130th (No PGA Stats)

There is a number of largely unknown golfers teeing up this week and the majority have not played enough rounds on the PGA Tour to qualify for strokes gained data -- Ventura would be one of those guy but he has shown some major potential on the Korn Ferry Tour this year (basically the PGA minor leagues for the unfamiliar -- formerly dubbed the Web.com Tour). In 11 starts on the 2019 KFT, he has seven made cuts with two wins and two 3rd place finishes. Ventura hails from Norway but played his college golf at Oklahoma State University -- which is essentially like the Alabama Crimson Tide football program of the NCAA golf scene. Oklahoma State has churned out players like Rickie Fowler, Matthew Wolff, and (fellow Norwegian) Viktor Hovland. Ventura has a little bit of PGA experience under his belt and most recently finished T36 back in April at the Valero Texas Open. Given his boom/bust profile, even on the KFT, you obviously can’t roll him out in cash game builds. But this week should be a birdiefest and, top to bottom, the entire field isn’t *that* much stronger than what you’d see in some Korn Ferry Tour events. Ventura is also the 156th ranked player in the world -- a ranking that sticks out like a sore thumb among most everyone priced around him, many of which are ranked well into the 500s, 600s, 700s, and even outside the top 1,000 in the Official World Gold Rankings. In stars and scrubs GPP builds, Ventura is worth a shot.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced Targets

- Viktor Hovland | DK: $10.9k, FD: $12.1k | Cash & GPP | Lofty salaries come with lofty expectations. Hovland is poised to continue his emergence as one of the best young golfers in the world and I certainly wouldn’t consider this course or field to be too tough of a test for him. He closed out last season with five finishes of T16 or better in his last six starts -- including a T12 at the US Open and solo 4th at the Wyndham Championship.

- Sungjae Im | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11.2k | GPP Preferred | Other young players have been getting more attention but Im was the only rookie to make the TOUR Championship last season. He grinded his way to 25/34 made cuts with seven top 10s. If people are going to overlook him, he’s a great GPP pivot.

Mid-Priced Targets

- Scottie Scheffler | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.2k | GPP Preferred | Scheffler is arguably the best player moving up from the Korn Ferry Tour. In 20 starts on the KFT he carded ten top 10s, with two wins and two runner-ups. He’s a tee-to-green monster who can make waves this week. As a somewhat unknown name, people may not feel inclined to spend up on him.

- Ryan Armour | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.9k | Cash Preferred | No one gets thrilled about playing Armour but he brings some solid cut equity to cash lineups and has top 25 finishes in two of the last three years at The Old White TPC. The course’s elevation helps with Armour’s overall lack of distance. Otherwise, it should be four steady rounds of fairways and greens for the PGA veteran.

Low-Priced Targets

- Cameron Tringale | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.8k | Cash & GPP | Made 15/20 cuts in his rookie PGA season including seven top 25 results. Shines on the stat sheet ranking 1st in P4 AVG, 7th in BoB%, 7th in Bogey Avoidance, and 18th in SG: App. He has made eight starts at Old White TPC with only four made cuts but two of those were top five finishes. Given the strong form, I’ll keep him in play in all formats.

- Robby Shelton | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.1k | GPP Preferred | Shelton has acquired similar accolades to Scottie Scheffler on the KFT this year but will come in much quieter on the radar. In 22 KFT starts this year he has a pair of wins and five total top five finishes. His last appearances on the PGA Tour came in 2017 when he made 5/8 cuts with a top 25 result thrown in the mix. I wouldn’t consider him a safe guy to punt but I do anticipate he’ll find his way into the weekend conversation.

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Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll be around in chat all week so just tag me if you'd like a second opinion on a player or just have any other general PGA DFS questions!

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