Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions! 

Tournament & Field 🏆

The first of three PGA playoff events has arrived! The top 125 golfers in the FedEx Cup Standings have earned the right to compete in The Northern Trust which will be held at TPC Boston in Norton, Massachusetts. In order for golfers to qualify for the second playoff event (BMW Championship), they will need to finish this week inside the top 70 in FedEx Cup standings. Even though there are golfers who MUST have a great finish in this event to qualify for next week, I wouldn’t let the standings influence my DFS approach. However, I will link the FEC standings below as the sweat for players to crack the top 70 in FEC points is a huge entertainment factor for this tournament. To no surprise, this field is extremely loaded with talent all 25 of the top ranked players in the world will be in attendance, along with 72 of the top 100. Even with the smaller field of 125 golfers, the typical 36-hole cut rule stays in place -- the top 65 (including ties) will make it into the weekend rounds. Since a larger percentage of the field will make it past the cut line, feel free to be a little more aggressive with your lineup construction. While the best of the best players tend to rise to the top of the leaderboard in this tournament, “stars and scrubs” is still a definite viable approach. 

FedEx Cup Standings

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Boston is a Par 71 that extends 7,342 yards and consists of three Par 5s, four Par 3s, and eleven Par 4s. The tree-lined fairways are pretty wide and should be relatively easy to hit. Most golfers should find the short stuff at around a 65% clip. The rough has patches of wispy fescue and is generally pretty thick, but often times it can still produce hittable lies and isn’t too penalizing. Other hazards include large mounds which line the fairways. Those mounds were added onto the course in the last redesign and can be problematic if golfers land their ball in an awkward spot around them. A total of 65 bunkers are scattered throughout the course and the four water hazards are capable of coming into play on about half of the holes. The average-sized bentgrass greens appear to be the course’s primary defense and, depending on the weather, will run fairly quickly (11.5-12 on the stimpmeter). Some of these greens are multi-tiered with some prominent undulation, but the majority are mostly flat. Targeting strictly longer hitters could be a popular strategy this week as well, but in my opinion, not completely necessary. There is a drivable Par 4 and two of the three Par 5s should be reachable in two by the vast majority of the field. If past events are any indication, the winning score should be in the 17 to 20-under range in good conditions, so there is certainly a place for big time birdie makers to shine this week. This is sure to be an entertaining affair so let’s get further into it!

Weather ⛅

Thursday: Pretty favorable golf conditions the entire day as winds shouldn’t really rise above 5-8 mph. Plenty of sunshine with temps mostly in the 70s.

Friday: Things get slightly more interesting in round two. Sustained winds start out in the single digits in the morning with 10 mph gusts. Around noon, sustained winds pick up to about 10-12 mph with 15 mph gusts. Mostly cloudy with temps going up into the low 80s. These forecasted conditions are far from brutal, but if things change and the wind forecast picks up for the Friday afternoon wave, I might consider giving a slight advantage to the PM/AM wave.

Weekend: Saturday should see similar conditions as Friday. Looking at Sunday, however, there is a fair amount of rain in the forecast. If lightning comes into play with these storms, expect some stoppages. The PGA does a good job of staying on top of weather-related impacts and may adjust weekend tee times to adjust. Just keep an eye on things if you’re playing weekend/single round PGA contests.

As always, the forecast will be linked to the image below. Try to run a final weather check on Wednesday night before making any potential weather-related DFS decisions.

The Northern Trust Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Bryson DeChambeau | DK: $11.1k, FD: $12k

Odds: 12/1 | Custom Model Rank: #4

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Key Stat Ranks*: 76th SG: App, 1st BoB%, 2nd P4 AVG, 1st SG: OTT, 76th SG: ATG

*Key stat ranks are always in relation to the field in any given week.

This guy is so obnoxious but as much as I want to be anti-DeChambeau, I can’t do it this week. On a course where the fairways are wide and pretty easy to hit, DeChambeau should have a field day bombing his driver off the tee and setting up plenty of short iron shots. He won at TPC Boston in 2018 and has only improved as a golfer since then. He’s also a strong putter on bentgrass greens (8th in SG: Putting, Bentgrass) and just from a “course fit” perspective, DeChambeau makes too much sense. He may be too pricey for some people to consider him in cash lineups, but he’s clearly a top target for GPPs.

Xander Schauffele | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 22/1 | Custom Model Rank: #7

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Key Stat Ranks: 30th SG: App, 13th BoB%, 4th P4 AVG, 5th SG: OTT, 24th SG: ATG

Those who read these newsletters regularly know that Schauffele is often a go-to pick of mine, especially when it comes to finding an anchor for cash games. Evidenced by his key stat ranks, he just has an excellent all-around golf game and will rarely make a mistake that would take him out of a tournament. As I noted the last time I wrote him up, if you take away his one missed cut on the year (Farmers Insurance Open) and a poor T64 result at the RBC Heritage, Schauffele has finished inside the top 25 in every single one of his other 14 events this season. And in half of those 14 starts, he landed inside the top 10. That level of consistency is extremely hard to pull off at the PGA level and I’ll, once again, view Schauffele as one of the most trustworthy golfers in this field.

Mid-Priced Targets

Viktor Hovland | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 66/1 | Custom Model Rank: #23

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Key Stat Ranks: 10th SG: App, 24th BoB%, 43rd P4 AVG, 13th SG: OTT, 106th SG: ATG

Hovland hasn’t exactly been paying off his fairly lofty salaries lately but I have pretty high hopes that he can come through with a strong tournament showing this week. It’s also important to remember that his last three tournaments (PGA Championship, St. Jude Inv., & the Memorial) were all difficult events. I believe his skill-set should shine more on a course where birdie (and eagle) opportunities are more plentiful. Hovland was also playing a ton of golf since the PGA restart so, even though he’s a young guy, some fatigue could very well have been an issue for him. Now that he’s taken a couple weeks off, he should be refreshed and ready to roll. This will be his first career start at TPC Boston, and he isn’t the greatest putter on bentgrass (74th in SG: Putting, Bentgrass), so I’d probably prefer to roll him out as a GPP option instead of a cash game target.

Abraham Ancer | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 66/1 | Custom Model Rank: #8

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Key Stat Ranks: 28th SG: App, 48th BoB%, 28th P4 AVG, 19th SG: OTT, 71st SG: ATG

Ancer is another guy who finds his way into these PGA newsletters quite a bit. He missed his first two cuts of the 2019-20 PGA season way back in late September/early October but he has made it into the weekend in every week since then (16 events) and notched five top 10s along the way. In his first career start at TPC Boston in 2018, he also came away with a 7th place finish. Since the season restarted with the Charles Schwab Classic, Ancer’s only two lackluster results were a T58 at the Memorial and a T43 at the PGA Championship. As I hit on above with Viktor Hovland, those were two really difficult events overall. Ancer is just another well-rounded golfer and he brings a high amount of cut equity to lineups, so he’s a great golfer to target in this mid-range.

Low-Priced Targets

Dylan Frittelli | DK: $7k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 200/1 | Custom Model Rank: #74

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Key Stat Ranks: 82nd SG: App, 60th BoB%, 54th P4 AVG, 80th SG: OTT, 18th SG: ATG

Hitting the right value guys will be huge this week and Frittelli gets a nod from me, not because of his long term stats (which are pretty unappealing) and performances, but more so what he has done fairly recently. Frittelli is averaging a 23rd place finish over his last four starts. In all four events, he has gained between four and eight strokes tee to green against the field. If he simply continues to do what he has been recently, he could easily contend for another top 25 finish which would be excellent value. I’d view him as a cash viable value play and really like him for GPPs as well.

Henrik Norlander | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8k

Odds: 200/1 | Custom Model Rank: #40

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Key Stat Ranks: 32nd SG: App, 63rd BoB%, 31st P4 AVG, 66th SG: OTT, 105th SG: ATG

Norlander was in the mix near the top of the leaderboard heading into the weekend at last week’s Wyndham Championship but sort of fizzled out across the final two rounds. He didn’t exactly play poorly, he just didn’t do enough to really hang around among the leaders and went on to finish T59. Considering he enters into this event having made six straight cuts with three top 25 finishes, I believe he stands out as one of the better potential values this week. I’d prefer him for GPPs but I think you can make a case for him as a fringe cash play as well.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Justin Thomas | DK: $11.3k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 14/1 | CMR: #3 | Cash & GPP

JT didn’t really do much to pay off his top-end salaries at the PGA Championship (finished T37) but that was largely due to a poor week on the greens where he lost nearly four strokes putting. Expect a solid bounce back at TPC Boston, where he won in 2017.

Collin Morikawa | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 22/1 | CMR: #18 | Cash & GPP

Morikawa has shown too much winning upside to not be worthy of some exposure nearly every week.

Tony Finau | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #10 | Cash & GPP

He’s feeling himself right now with three top 10s in his last four starts heading into this week. Not many golfers in the field can hit the ball further than Finau and his iron game has been on point for much of the season.

Adam Scott | DK: $8.4k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #14 | GPP Preferred

After a five month absence from competitive play, Scott didn’t show much rust while carding a T22 at the PGA Championship. He did rely pretty heavily on the putter and actually lost -0.84 strokes on approach. So, for now, I’d lean towards using him only in GPPs but if he plays like the #11 ranked golfer in the world should, you’ll get strong value here. He has four top 10s in 11 starts at TPC Boston so he should be comfortable here.

Tyrrell Hatton | DK: $8k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #9 | GPP Preferred

The T69 and missed cut over Hatton’s last two events are obviously the primary concern but much of that can be blamed on poor putting, which can change for any golfer in any given week. He ranks 5th or better in my top three weighted stats this week (SG: App, BoB%, P4 AVG) and was a top 10 machine for the majority of this season. For the reduced salaries, I’ll give Hatton a shot in GPPs. He finished 12th at TPC Boston in 2018.

Si Woo Kim | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #43 | GPP Only

His game is rounding into form and he nearly shipped the Wyndham Championship last week. Si Woo has shown in the past that he can compete against talented fields so, while he may be volatile, he is an intriguing mid-range GPP target.

Harris English | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #15 | Cash & GPP

Another week on the PGA Tour for Harris English and another top 25. His T23 finish last week marked his fifth consecutive top 25 and his eighth such result in his last nine starts. At this point, I’m not sure how you can argue against him, especially for cash games.

GPP Punt Targets:

- Russell Henley | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.9k

- Joel Dahmen | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.6k

- Kevin Na | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.5k

- Scott Stallings | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.8k

- Cameron Davis | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.9k

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

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That will do it for our Northern Trust preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week!

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