Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview

The PGA sets off to begin its the three event playoff stretch as the top 125 golfers in the FedEx Cup Standings have qualified to compete in The Northern Trust held at Liberty National Golf Club in Jersey City, New Jersey! Note that some guys have withdrawn their name from the field this week (Henrik Stenson, Paul Casey, Sam Burns, and Rafa Cabrera-Bello) and since there are no alternates allowed for this event, the field size currently sits at 121 golfers. The cut rule stays the same where top 70 (and ties) after 36 holes will advance to the weekend. With the smaller field, this will put even more emphasis on getting six of six golfers through the cutline in your lineups. In order to advance on to the next playoff event (The BMW Championship), players will need to find themselves inside the top 70 in the FedEx Cup Standings. It’s sure to be an exciting week!

Liberty National GC is a Par 71 setup that extends 7,370 yards. We can’t really count on course history very much, as this event hasn’t been hosted at this course since 2013 (then dubbed ‘The Barclays’) when Adam Scott won with a score of 11-under. The course layout itself is really wide open with very little tree coverage and features some areas with wide fairways. The course’s primary defenses are wind and its small Bentgrass greens. There are also 90 bunkers and 10 water hazards scattered about. Ultimately, this course should play into the hands of elite ball strikers and golfers who can scramble well and pick up strokes around the greens as, inevitably, no matter how accurate their irons may be, golfers will often misfire when approaching the small landing zones that the greens feature at Liberty National. With five of the 11 Par 4 holes exceeding 470 yards, as well as a Par 5 that stretches 611 yards, I’ll be looking for guys who can pin it close from approach shots beyond 200 yards. Birdie or better percentage and bogey avoidance will make its way into my weighted model as well.

Weather ⛅

We could see lower scores than when this course was last played in 2013, as sustained winds currently look to top out around 10 mph over the first two rounds with gusts only hitting into the mid-teens. Some rain moving through the area on Tuesday evening and Wednesday night could also soften up the course conditions a bit, thus improving scoring. Otherwise, temps will mostly hover in the low-to-mid 80s with a good amount of sunshine. I don’t expect this week to be a birdiefest by any means, and weekend conditions could provide a tougher challenge, but a winning score somewhere in the vicinity of 15-under wouldn’t shock me.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: BS) | 40%

2. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 20%

3. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens (SG: ATG) | 15%

5. Proximity 200+ Yards | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Justin Thomas (DK: $10k, FD: $11.4k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

FedEx Cup Rank: 17th

Odds to Win: 20/1

Key Stat Model Rank: 10th

If you’ve read some recent PGA newsletters, you know I’m all about rolling JT lately because if he fully finds his putter, post-wrist injury, then he can easily win any event due to his steady elite ball striking. Some good news is he finally gained strokes putting in his last start for the first time in ten events! Given, it was only +0.24 strokes per round, any sign of positive regression is huge here. For my key stats this week, JT is not outdone by many others. He ranks 3rd in SG: BS, 1st in BoB%, 39th in Bogey Avoidance, 19th in SG: ATG, and 22nd in Proximity 200+ Yards. With three consecutive top 12 worldwide finishes, we could see Thomas break through this week and I love him as a GPP leverage play.

Tiger Woods (DK: $9k, FD: $10.9k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

FedEx Cup Rank: 28th

Odds to Win: 25/1

Key Stat Model Rank: 22nd

Wow, Tiger is in the field without an inflated DFS price tag! How about that? I think it is important to remember that even though the Big Cat has made only eight cuts in ten events this year, he’s went on to record a top 10 result in three of those with, of course, an iconic win at The Masters. I really do like the course fit for where Tiger’s game is at these days and it’s not solely based on the fact that he finished 2nd here in each of the two previous years this course has been played (2013, 2009). The fairways are a bit more wide open at Liberty National, so Tiger can get a pass on the occasional wayward drive as long as he avoids the penalizing fescue that mostly sits well off the first cut. Thus, he can mostly let his iron game do the talking, which has been excellent pretty much all season. Per the key stats, he ranks 15th in SG: BS, 35th in BoB%, 22nd in Bogey Avoidance, 11th in SG: ATG, and 16th in Proximity 200+ Yards. Much like JT, I really like Tiger as a GPP options -- not so much a cash play.

Mid-Priced Targets

Xander Schauffele (DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.8k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

FedEx Cup Rank: 4th

Odds to Win: 28/1

Key Stat Model Rank: 11th

In the face of challenging fields, Xander tends to step it up. This is backed up this season by wins at the WGC HSBC Champions and Sentry Tournament of Champions along with a T2 at the Masters, T16 at the PGA Championship, and a T3 at the US Open. He will bring his well-rounded game to Liberty National where, in the field, he ranks 22nd in SG: BS, 16th in BoB%, 29th in Bogey Avoidance, 30th in SG: ATG, and 15th in Proximity 200+ Yards. Not many guys land in the top 30 in all five key metrics this week. The X-Man often putts better on Bermuda grass greens as well, which only draws my attention more towards him. I feel that he is just a tad too cheap considering his recent track record in difficult fields and at tough venues.

Charles Howell III (DK: $7.5k, FD: $9k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

FedEx Cup Rank: 15th

Odds to Win: 100/1

Key Stat Model Rank: 7th

Chucky Three Sticks is almost certainly too cheap now that his form is trending back in the right directions after a post-Masters hangover in late-April through May where he missed 3/5 cuts alongside a WD at the Byron Nelson. He has now made five straight cuts including three consecutive top 25s. He doesn’t hit on every key stat but in this price range, hardly anyone will. He is 66th in SG: BS, 44th in BoB%, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance, 7th in SG: ATG, and 106th in Proximity 200+ Yards. His irons as of late have improved and he’s one of the more consistent Par 4 scorers out there (ranks 4th). Perhaps he is more of a cash play, because there are many guys priced around him that carry a bit more upside. But the cut equity should be really solid with him this week.

Low-Priced Targets

Cameron Tringale (DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.8k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

FedEx Cup Rank: 101st

Odds to Win: 200/1

Key Stat Model Rank: 14th

In terms of scrub punt plays, not many carry better form than Tringale entering this week. He has made the weekend in seven straight events (one MDF) with five top 25 results. In a week where (with ties factored in) more than 60% of the field will make the cut, I’m fine with taking a bit of a chance here with Tringale in pretty much any format. The key stats are serviceable, as he ranks 70th in SG: BS, 28th in BoB%, 21st in Bogey Avoidance, 43rd in SG: ATG, and 90th in Proximity 200+ Yards. This will most definitely be the stoutest field he’s competed in all year, but hey, he’s had enough success to earn a spot with these guys, so he can certainly compete!

Corey Conners (DK: $6.5k, $7.6k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

FedEx Cup Rank: 31st

Odds to Win: 250/1

Key Stat Model Rank: 57th

You won’t find a better ball striker than Conners when you get down to the basement-level salaries, as he ranks 5th in the entire field in SG: BS. Unfortunately, he’s pretty abysmal in every other key metric aside from Bogey Avoidance (43rd). He’s an awful putter but a silver lining could be the fact that, when he does have a good putting week (or at least not terrible), it tends to happen on Bentgrass greens. He hits a ton of greens in regulation (2nd in field) and gets it close to the pin as well (1st in Proximity) so if he can manage to sink some 8 to 12 foot putts, hey… maybe he back doors a top 25.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced

- Justin Rose (DK: $9.6k, FD: $11.5k) | Cash & GPP | Form is starting to look much better for the No. 4 ranked player in the world. Finished 2nd here in 2013. As long as his irons stay crisp you know he is going to have one of the best putters in the field.

- Patrick Cantlay (DK: $9.2k, FD: $11.3k) | Cash & GPP | Disappointed a bit back at The Open (T41) but I still think you can almost lock him in for cash builds. He’s had such an incredible year and his dominant ball striking, birdie-making ability, and bogey avoidance will serve him well this week. Any finish outside the top 15 would surprise me.

Mid-Priced

- Patrick Reed (DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.9k) | Cash & GPP | Consistently notching top 25 results but the upside for a top 10 finish makes him underpriced.

- Joaquin Niemann (DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.1k) | GPP Preferred | Has yet to put on a really good performance in his career in tough fields/events but he has the game to do it. Not to disparage my boy Morikawa, but I think Niemann is just as talented of a young golfer but he’s going overlooked this week and at $1,000+ cheaper.

Low-Priced

- Bubba Watson (DK: $7.4k, FD: $9k) | GPP Preferred | Hey, Bubba did look pretty good his last time out (T9 at the WGC- St. Jude Invitational) and was actually sinking some putts! He still makes some bonehead double-bogeys that leave you scratching your head while saying “I could have made that shot!” but this is a guy who can show up in high-pressure, high-stake events, most recently with a T12 back at The Masters.

- Denny McCarthy (DK: $6.6k, FD: $8k) | GPP Preferred | DMC lives and dies by the putter but you can’t argue with his recent run as he has routinely been carding top 25 results. The odds are stacked against him this week if he can’t get anything at all going with the irons, but if his approach game is even half-way decent, expect him to hole a lot of putts that most guys (even in this field) are unable to consistently make.

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Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll be around in chat all week so just tag me if you'd like a second opinion on a player or just have any other general PGA DFS questions!

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