By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

Apologies for the last-minute newsletter this week!

The first of three PGA playoff events has arrived! The top 125 golfers in the FedEx Cup Standings have earned the right to compete in The Northern Trust which will be held at Liberty National Golf Club in Jersey City, New Jersey. In order for golfers to qualify for the second playoff event (BMW Championship), they will need to finish this week inside the top 70 in FedEx Cup standings. Even though there are golfers who MUST have a great finish in this event to qualify for next week, I wouldn’t let the standings influence my DFS approach. However, I will link the FEC standings below as the sweat for players to crack the top 70 in FEC points is a huge entertainment factor for this tournament. To no surprise, this field is extremely loaded with talent. Aside from Louis Oosthuizen (world no. 7), all 30 of the top ranked players in the world will be in attendance, along with 77 of the top 100. Even with the smaller field of 124 golfers, the typical 36-hole cut rule stays in place – the top 65 (including ties) will make it into the weekend rounds. Since a larger percentage of the field will make it past the cut line, feel free to be a little more aggressive with your lineup construction. While the best of the best players tend to rise to the top of the leaderboard in this tournament, “stars and scrubs” still remains a viable approach.

The Course Preview ⛳

Liberty National GC is a Par 71 setup that extends 7,4100 yards. We can’t really count on course history very much, as this course has only hosted The Northern Trust twice -- once in 2019 when Patrick Reed won by a score of 16-under and, prior to that, in 2013 (then dubbed ‘The Barclays’) when Adam Scott came away victorious with a score of 11-under. The course layout itself is really wide open with very little tree coverage. The fairways are technically smaller than average in width, but the rough is listed as only 1.5” in length so plenty of golfers will be taking a bomber approach off the tee this week. The course’s primary defenses are wind and its small Bentgrass greens. There are also 90 bunkers and 10 water hazards scattered about to contend with. Ultimately, this course should play into the hands of elite ball strikers and golfers who can scramble well and pick up strokes around the greens. Inevitably, no matter how accurate their irons may be, golfers will often misfire when approaching the small landing zones that the greens feature at Liberty National, making that around the green play important. With five of the eleven Par 4 holes exceeding 470 yards, as well three 200+ yard Par 3s and a Par 5 that stretches 611 yards, I’ll be looking for guys who can hit it close to the pin from approach shots beyond 200 yards. Birdie or better percentage, Par 4 Average, and Par 5 Average will be additional stats that will make their way into my weighted model as well.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Temperature & Rain: Temps will be in the 70s and 80s all week with rain not too likely to come into play.

Wind Conditions: Thursday is really the only day where winds are forecasted to consistently hit 10+ mph. The golfers who go out very early Thursday morning could experience some 20+ mph gusts at times but, for the most part, wind conditions will affect both AM/PM waves pretty equally. Winds look to be quite calm across Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. With wind being one of the course’s primary defenses, we could see some pretty low scores this week.

Verdict: No significant wave advantage to be had this week.

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 15%

5. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 10%

6. Par 5 Average | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stats [Only] Rank; Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated towards each metric.

Overall Model Rank (OMR); a golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Jordan Spieth | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 16/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #19

Overall Model Rank: #3

Spieth has made a strong case as the best and most consistent golfer on the PGA Tour this year. Whatever he turned on back in February, it hasn’t turned off. In his last 15 starts, he has finished T9 or better eight times, including a win. He has also posted strong finishes on both occasions when The Northern Trust was played here at Liberty National GC, finishing T19 in 2013 and T6 in 2019. He’s a core play for me this week.

Collin Morikawa | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 18/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #3

Overall Model Rank: #2

When a T26 finish is a pretty big disappointment, which is where Morikawa landed at in his last start at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, you know you’ve been playing some great golf. In Morikawa’s eight starts prior to that WGC event, he finished no worse than T14 and has seven top eight finishes (including the Olympics), including his win at The Open. He may not be the absolute best off the tee (22nd in SG: OTT) but his iron play is so spectacular that he ends up ranking out as the #1 overall ball striker in the field. He didn’t play great here in 2019 (T52), but he also wasn’t the #3 ranked golfer in the world at the time either, as well as the current FedEx Cup Points leader. I have no issues spending up on him this week.

Rory McIlroy | DK: $10k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 22/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #13

Overall Model Rank: #4

The form is still a little up and down for Rory, but overall it’s been trending nicely. In his last seven PGA Tour starts, he has earned a win, two top 10s, four top 20s, and also finished T4 at the Olympics. His finishes in this tournament when it was played at Liberty National GC the last two times are the exact same as Jordan Spieth’s -- T6 in 2019, T19 in 2013.

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 33/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #7

Overall Model Rank: #19

Scottie makes some head scratching shots from time to time, but due to his excellent scoring ability (6th in BoB%), he almost always checks in as a GPP target for me. He’s been posting some great results, with finishes of 14th, T8, T7, and 3rd within his last five PGA starts and also posted a T12 over on the EURO Tour at the Scottish Open last month. Scheffler has not competed at Liberty National GC professionally before, but he sets up as a strong course fit.

Mid-Priced Targets

Paul Casey | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 40/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #15

Overall Model Rank: #21

If Casey could putt consistently well (77th in SG: Putt), he probably would have cashed a couple victory checks at some point this season because his irons and around the green play has been pristine. Regardless, he’s been ultra consistent this year, making 19-of-21 cuts and the recent form is tremendous with five finishes of T7 or better in his last seven worldwide starts (including the T4 at the Olympics). Casey also ranks 1st in the field in proximity from 200+ yards, which will be very a common approach distance this week. He has a great chance to outperform his DFS salaries as the 18th (DK) and 16th (FD) most expensive golfer this week.

Adam Scott | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 45/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #60

Overall Model Rank: #20

You can’t really attach the “course horse” label to a golfer when there are only two years to base course history off of which happened to be spread apart from the 2013 and 2019 seasons. BUT, given Adam Scott’s T5 here in 2019 and victory in 2013, if anyone could be deemed a ‘course horse’ at Liberty National, it would be him. By his standards, this has been quite a forgettable season on the PGA Tour. He has only missed one cut in 18 PGA starts, but Scott has also only posted two top 10s on the year. One of those top 10s came last week at the Wyndham Championship where Adam Scott was one of the five golfers to finish T2 after losing in a six-man playoff (missed a 4-foot putt on the opening playoff hole that would’ve won it… as well as an extra $700k… ouch!). So, we’ll see if Scott can carry that success over into this week, at a course where he has had great success at twice in the past. I don’t think he’d make my cash lineup, but love him for GPPs.

Tony Finau | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 60/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #14

Overall Model Rank: #38

This is more of a gut selection and, thus, a ‘GPP preferred’ pick. Tony has all the tools in his bag to do well at Liberty National. If he wants to bomb and gouge this place, he’s long enough off the tee to do so. If he wants to play more conservative and let his iron play do the heavy lifting, he’s capable of that as well. Finau is usually very strong around the greens (8th in SG: ATG) which is a plus, given the size of these very small green complexes. With the short rough length (listed at 1.5”), Finau’s 111th ranked driving accuracy also won’t penalize him all too much. He’s going to catch a win one of these days, but for now I’ll settle for a top 10 out of him at 5% ownership. Let’s make it happen, Tony!

Ian Poulter | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 90/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #100

Overall Model Rank: #62

I don’t normally rate out someone as a cash safe play when their stat and overall model rankings are as low as Poulter’s are this week. And yet, he is finding ways to get it done and has missed just one cut in his last 13 worldwide starts. His game is heavily anchored by his short game (11th in SG: ATG, 9th in Sand Save %, 1st in SG: Putting) but if it works, it works -- what can I say? Poulter notched a 10th place finish here at Liberty National in 2019. Also, not that these guys need extra motivation, but Poulter, who is currently 79th in the FedEx Cup standings, will need a great weeks if he hopes to move up into the top 70 and qualify for next week’s second playoff event, the BMW Championship.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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