By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

We’ve reached the second week of the PGA playoffs and the penultimate event of the season! The top 70 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings have qualified to tee it up for the BMW Championship held at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, MD -- about 15 miles northwest of Baltimore. There will be no cut this week so, pending a late withdrawal or disqualification, every golfer will play all four rounds. After this playoff event, only the top 30 players in the FEC standings will survive to compete in the TOUR Championship at East Lake GC next week. Whoever is fortunate enough to land atop the FEC standings after that will receive a massive $15 million pay day. A new sort of seeding structure was implemented two years ago for the TOUR Championship which will give a huge opening round stroke advantage to the higher seeds, so this is the final week that contenders can rally for one final push up the leaderboard. Links to the complete set of playoff rules and current FedEx Cup standings are linked below.

FedEx Cup Rules

FedEx Cup Standings

The Course Preview ⛳

Caves Valley Golf Club is a traditional Par 72 setup which has a scorecard length of 7,542 yards. Caves Valley GC opened in 1991 and was designed by Tom Fazio, who is known for other PGA courses like Congaree (Palmetto Championship), Shadow Creek (CJ Cup), Quail Hollow (re-designed - Wells Fargo Champ.), and Kasumigaseki (recent Olympics host course). The BMW Championship rotates venues year-to-year and Caves Valley GC will be making its debut on the PGA Tour for the first time. This will be one of the longest courses that golfers have seen all season. The length of the course does not necessarily mean that bombers will have a major advantage this week. Thick rough which is listed at 3” in length could give problems to wayward tee shots and there are also several curving/doglegged holes with various water and bunker hazards which will force golfers to pick and choose specific landing zones to target. Certain holes will encourage more aggressive play with the driver but, for the most part, a nice combination of length and accuracy (SG: OTT) will be the preferred recipe for success when teeing off. On approach, golfers will be targeting green complexes which are above average in size (5,200 sq/ft) and feature pure Bentgrass surfaces, which should be expected to run firm and fast, pending wet and rainy conditions softening things up. Despite the larger surface areas for these greens, deep bunkers are a staple of Tom Fazio designed courses so I see some merit in factoring in sand save percentage this week. Overall, considering the four Par 5s available, I believe we’ll see a fair amount of scoring on this course so your usual metrics like birdie or better percentage and Par 4 & Par 5 averages can be taken into consideration as well.

With only 70 golfers in the field and no cut in play, this newsletter will be formatted a bit differently this week. I’ll forego specifying cash/GPP plays and I also won’t be splitting up golfers by salary range. I always feel that more of a GPP-heavy approach is ideal for no-cut events, especially when the field is reduced in size. Also remember that the best way to have a unique lineup in tournaments is to leave a few hundred dollars on the table. I can’t recall the exact source, but I’ve read an analysis of large MME PGA tournaments in the past which mentioned (roughly) 95% of entries use at least $49.7k (DK)/$59.6k (FD). The vast majority of the time, optimal lineups won’t use 100% of the allotted salary so increase your chances of creating a non-duplicated entry by leaving $300+ on the table in some lineups this week! If you’re used to hand building lineups and find yourself constantly using up 98-100% of your budget, it may seem a bit uncomfortable to take this approach. However, most of these golfers have very similar upside and winning odds, so DFS salaries which differ by only a few hundred dollars really just ends up being arbitrary, particularly for this week.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Temperatures & Rain: Temps in the mid-80s and low-90s for all four rounds. There is currently some potential for rain, but mostly in the late night/early morning hours.

Wind: It looks like wind will be a non-issue this week with sustained speeds barely ever getting above 5 mph.

Verdict: No need to worry about weather or tee time advantages this week. There is no cut and tee times are much closer together anyway with only 70 golfers on site.

BMW Championship Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 30%

> Additional Weight on Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 5%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Par 5 Average | 10%

5. Sand Save Percentage | 10%

DraftKings & FanDuel Targets

Key Stats [Only] Rank; Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated towards each metric.

Overall Model Rank (OMR); a golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Jon Rahm | DK: $11.7k, FD: $12k

Odds: 7/1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #2

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Overall Model Rank: #1

What’s left to say about Rahm? The world’s No. 1 ranked golfer just makes it look easy. Rahm seemed like he would cruise to a win at The Northern Trust last week but the driver uncharacteristically failed him a bit in the final round, which ultimately led to his solo 3rd place finish. His elite combination of length off the tee (11th in Driving Distance) and accuracy (17th in Driving Accuracy) should translate well to Caves Valley GC. We should expect him to land another excellent finish before he makes his run at the FedEx Cup Trophy next week.

Justin Thomas | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.6k

Odds: 20/1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #5

Key Stats Only Rank: #7

Overall Model Rank: #7

After a lackluster (by his standards) stretch towards the end of this season, just about everything looked to be clicking for JT last week. He gained nearly eight strokes ball striking en route to a T4 finish at The Northern Trust. Despite being three over par in the final round at one point, he rallied with four birdies in a five hole stretch. He can definitely get scorching hot at any time and historically Thomas plays well in these FedEx Cup Playoffs (2017 FedEx Cup Champion).

Tony Finau | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11k

Odds: 28/1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #1

Key Stats Only Rank: #25

Overall Model Rank: #28

I ignored the stats and the inconsistent play from Finau and vetted him as a “gut feeling” pick last week (/victory lap). Boy, do I wish I had more at stake on him than I did! Finau picked an incredible time to notch his second career PGA win, his first since the 2016 Puerto Rico Open. The 2,000 FEC points earned from the win last week vaulted Finau from #23 in the FEC points standings all the way up to #1 and that win also locks up a spot for him on the Ryder Cup team next month. Whether or not he keeps the momentum rolling into the BMW Championship remains to be seen, but I do believe this is a course that suits him well so long as he stays a bit more accurate with the driver than what we’ve seen from him this season.

Louis Oosthuizen | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.6k

Odds: 28/1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #11

Key Stats Only Rank: #32

Overall Model Rank: #16

Oosty was the only qualified golfer to sit out last week’s playoff event due to a neck injury, and slid from 8th to 11th in the FEC standings as a result. But he’s apparently ready to go and is set to tee it up at Caves Valley GC this week. Oosthuizen has been one of the most steady golfers in the world for months now and has been showing up on big stages with several top 5 finishes in tournaments like the PGA Championship (T2), the US Open (2nd), and The Open (T3). Assuming he sat out last week with the neck injury as more of a precaution rather than actual concern, we should look for him to push for yet another podium finish.

Rory McIlroy | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 28/1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #28

Key Stats Only Rank: #9

Overall Model Rank: #6

It was a pretty disappointing T43 finish for Rory last week but he has historically played Tom Fazio designed courses very well throughout his career. He could certainly use a nice finish this week to boost him up the leaderboard ahead of East Lake, as Rory currently sits at #28 in the FEC standings. A bad week could easily knock him out of qualifying for the Tour Championship. He’s only a few weeks removed from that T4 finish at the Olympics which was played at Kasumigaseki CC in Japan -- another Tom Fazio designed course.

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 33/1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #24

Key Stats Only Rank: #13

Overall Model Rank: #13

Like Rory, Scheffler landed a pretty disappointing T43 last week as well. But I’m still a believer in his game and his combination of length plus accuracy off the tee is not all too dissimilar from a golfer like Jon Rahm. He ranks 6th in the field in BoB% and should have great scoring upside in this no cut event.

Harris English | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 40/1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #8

Key Stats Only Rank: #22

Overall Model Rank: #10

It’s been a career year for Harris English, who enters the BMW Championship on the heels of three top 5 finishes within his last five starts, including a win at the Travelers Championship. English has good length with great accuracy and excels on Par 5s (ranks 5th in P5 AVG). Across his last ten starts, he ranks 6th in the field in average fantasy points per event and could be a pretty decent bargain as the 21st most expensive golfer on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Shane Lowry | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 45/1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #47

Key Stats Only Rank: #52

Overall Model Rank: #36

Lowry has finished outside the top 25 just twice in his last ten starts while gaining strokes on approach in 13 straight. Following yet another strong finish at The Northern Trust (T11), I’d say he is primed to make one final push towards the top 30 in the FEC rankings (currently sits at #47).

Kevin Na | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 66/1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #18

Key Stats Only Rank: #47

Overall Model Rank: #28

Na has chosen an excellent time to heat up following finishes of T4, T2, T23, and T2 over his previous four starts. He’s never going to overpower a course and is one of the shortest drivers in the field (69th in Driving Distance). But he is accurate (7th in Driving Accuracy) and can do incredible things with his short game (1st in SG: ATG, 5th in SG: Putt - Bentgrass). Hey… whatever works! I can’t hate on the idea of riding a golfer when he’s on a roll like the one Kevin Na is currently on.

Jhonattan Vegas | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8k

Odds: 125/1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #61

Key Stats Only Rank: #23

Overall Model Rank: #17

Vegas burned plenty of DFS players last week by missing the cut, but it wasn’t like he completely mailed it in since he missed it right on the number (shot even par over the first 36 holes, cut was one-under). Vegas was running hot with four straight T16s heading into last week and has been superb off the tee all season (4th in SG: OTT). There is of course no cut to worry about golfers missing this week, so I’m willing to take another shot on Vegas, especially if his ownership is going to be a bit suppressed.

Maverick McNealy | DK: $7k, FD: $8.2k

Odds: 110/1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #53

Key Stats Only Rank: #41

Overall Model Rank: #27

McNealy has stitched together a nice run to end the season and has finished no worse than T30 over his previous seven starts. If that trend continues, then he’s returning pretty nice value while being priced as the 43rd (DK) and 40th (FD) most expensive golfer in the field.

Sebastian Munoz | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.9k

Odds: 125/1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #59

Key Stats Only Rank: #44

Overall Model Rank: #32

In his previous five starts, Munoz has posted a T21 (last week), T29, T4 (Olympics), MC, and a T4. Munoz’s game has been anchored by solid ball striking and he gained nearly five strokes on the field in that department last week. Munoz showed up in last year’s FedEx Cup Playoffs as well when he carded a T18 at the Northern Trust and a T8 at the BMW Championship, which was good enough to qualify him for the 2020 Tour Championship field among the other 29 top FEC point scorers. If he continues to play with similar confidence and form, expect another respectable finish out of Munoz this week.

Talor Gooch | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.4k

Odds: 150/1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #67

Key Stats Only Rank: #45

Overall Model Rank: #44

Gooch will simply check in as an appealing punt play who should outperform his salaries as the 60th (DK) and 56th (FD) most expensive golfer on the board. He has routinely landed around the T30 range for the last several months with a couple top 20s thrown into the mix as well. If you’re going for ‘stars and scrubs’ builds, Gooch is one of those viable ‘scrubs’ to consider.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

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• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

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• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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