Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview

Quickly channeling my inner Bruce Buffer here… IT’S… TIMEEE!!! The season’s final Major is upon us as the 148th Open Championship is just over a day away. It has been fun to see some young PGA talent develop in these weaker field events in recent weeks but now we get to see all of the big boys battle it out. The Open will be held at Royal Portrush Golf Club in Portrush, Northern Ireland. The 156 player field will boast the absolute best talent that the game has to offer -- every single top 30 ranked golfer in the world will be in attendance; as well as 92 of the world’s top 100. After 36 holes, the top 70 (and ties) will make cut and move on to play the weekend. Keep in mind that this event is across the pond so play will begin and lineups will lock just after midnight at 1:35 am ET on Thursday ‘morning’ July 18th. As with all Major events, DFS pricing is very soft. Generally speaking, a balanced lineup is often ideal for cash games. Anything goes for GPPs. If you’re new to PGA DFS, I wouldn’t recommend getting too cute with ‘punting’ a ton of low-level guys. Majors are set up to provide the most challenging tests that professional golfers see all year and the cream always rises to the top. A few lesser known players will certainly surprise on the final leaderboard, but well-known and vetted pros will far outnumber them.

Royal Portrush GC is a Par 71 track that will check in at 7,334 yards in length. There is no real course history to factor in this week considering the last time The Open was hosted here came back in 1951. The EURO Tour did play here for the Irish Open in 2012, but the course has undergone numerous alterations since then and not many in the field competed in that event. As is pretty typical of Open Championship host venues, this is a links-style course. For the unfamiliar, that simply means that the course is completely open with little to no tree coverage and the natural terrain helps shape a majority of the holes. Fairways are wider than average but thicker than usual rough will also come into play in order to punish wayward drives. Most links courses, like Royal Portrush, reside along the coast and wind often factors in as a primary defense mechanism. Paying attention to the weather outlook is of additional importance at venues like these.

Royal Portrush has a very undulated layout with many elevated greens. Without really any idea how this track will truly play, due to zero course history, we can often rely on elite ball strikers having the upper hand, as has been the case at numerous Open Championships in the past. If the wind doesn’t play a huge factor, then bombers can easily gain an advantage over shorter hitters. But, either way, we should see most golfers club down off of the tee in an effort to avoid that very thick and penalizing rough. I’m also going to be paying attention to golfers’ proximity to the hole. These green complexes have plenty of undulations, swales, and chasms. It may sound obvious (because it is), but the closer golfers can proximate their approach shots to the hole, the better off they will be. No one is going to hit 100% of greens in regulation, so proficiency around the greens may also be required. And if scoring turns out to be extremely difficult, give me golfers who are highly capable of avoiding bogeys at all costs. Open Championships are designed to test every facet of a golfer’s game and, ultimately, talent and determination trumps any metric out there. Let’s try to find ourselves a Major winner, shall we?

Weather ⛅

If you skipped the entire intro/course breakdown above, first of all, how dare you? As was mentioned, weather plays even more of a factor on a links-style course like Royal Portrush. Specifically the wind conditions. Thursday easily sets up as the windiest day through the first two rounds (and perhaps the entire tournament). However, both AM and PM waves will see similar sustained winds (12-15 mph) and gusts (20-25 mph). No cake walk by any means but all golfers should be affected equally. On Friday, things calm down quite a bit. Sustained winds aren’t projected to even hit double digit speeds, nor are the gusts and the afternoon looks extremely calm. This is Northern Ireland, so some rain wouldn’t be much of a surprise. There’s a chance that we could see some precipitation on both Thursday and Friday afternoon. If that is the case, the AM/PM wave could see the softest course conditions with a slightly more favorable wind draw. It’s not a huge determining factor but I’d give them the faintest of edges given the current forecast.

As always, check the most up-to-date forecast (linked to the image below) on Wednesday evening before making final lineup decisions. I’d recommend WindFinder's “Superforecast” page for a more detailed outlook.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: BS) | 40%

    > Emphasis on Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) | 10%

2. Bogey Avoidance | 20%

3. Proximity to the Hole | 15%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG) | 15%

High-Priced Targets

Rory McIlroy (DK: $11.6k, FD: $12k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Based on a tier system I believe myself, along with many others, would put Rory and Brooks in an upper-elite echelon all on their own and you’re really forced to split hairs when determining the preferred target. As hard as it is to bet against Koepka in a Major these days, if I had a gun to my head and was forced to pick between the two, I’d lean ever so slightly in McIlroy’s direction. When you’re shelling out the dough for these steep salaries, you really need (at minimum) a top five finish in order to see value returned. That’s exactly what McIlroy has accomplished in four consecutive Open Championship appearances (missed 2015), and he hoisted the Claret Jug in 2014. It is also actually insane how much better Rory has been tee to green than everyone else in the field this year. The difference in SG: T2G rankings between Rory McIlroy, who ranks first, and second place Justin Thomas is about 0.6 strokes per round. For perspective, 0.6 SG:T2G below Thomas lands right around Matt Kuchar, who ranks 15th. For this week’s key stats, McIlroy tops the field checking in at 1st in SG: BS (1st in SG: OTT), 8th in Bogey Avoidance, 13th in Proximity, and 16th in SG: ATG. A couple hiccups in his recent form (T34 at Scottish Open, missed cut at the Memorial) is really the only thing keeping him out of the top spot in my model for this week. But, as it stands, he rates out 3rd overall and is the odds on favorite to win at 8:1. I wouldn’t be compelled to put him in cash builds due to the price tags, obviously, but he makes for a prime GPP target.

Patrick Cantlay (DK: $9k, FD: $10.8k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Cantlay is going to be popular this week, no doubt. Perhaps the chalkiest play on the board. As such, I prefer him more in cash builds as opposed to tournaments -- but I’ll still gladly play him all over the place. He may not have a ton of Open experience but he carded a 12th place finish in his British Open debut last year and has been a force this season with eight top 10s in 14 stroke play events. In Majors this season, Cantlay has done very well for himself: T9 (Masters), T3 (PGA Championship), and T21 (US Open). Statistically, he shines almost as brightly as Rory, as he ranks 5th in SG: BS (8th in SG: OTT), 2nd in Bogey Avoidance, 18th in Proximity, and 12th in SG: ATG. He is fully capable of cashing in for bettors who put money on his 25/1 odds and he rates out as the top overall play in my Open Championship model.

Mid-Priced Targets

Adam Scott (DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.5k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

If you want a high-confidence pairing of golfers with plenty of win equity, I love the idea of simply starting builds with both Scott and Cantlay. It may be a common approach, which doesn’t really matter in your cash games. But in GPPs, it’s very easy to just differentiate elsewhere. The best way of doing that, by the way, is to leave about $300 to $600 of salary on the table and you’ll increase your chances of having a unique lineup exponentially. But when speaking towards Scott, his play is what has done most of the talking. He doesn’t compete in many events, but when he does, he makes them count. He’ll tee it up at Royal Portrush coming in off of three consecutive top 8 finishes -- two of those being Majors. In his Open Championship career, he has made 13/14 cuts, including nine straight, and has landed a top 10 result five times. For our metrics, he ranks 12th in SG: BS (21st in SG: OTT), 44th in Bogey Avoidance, 59th in Proximity, and 4th in SG: ATG. Given his current form and event history, he checks in at 4th overall in this week’s model and also carries some strong Vegas value with his 28:1 odds.

Webb Simpson (DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.4k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Simpson is a great example of how Majors affect DFS pricing. In most events, Simpson is worth garnering a mid-$9k/mid-$10k price tag on DK/FD respectively. However, the 19th ranked player in the world will check in much more affordably this week and he’s been very steady both this season and in his career Open appearances. Simpson has made 13/14 cuts on the season, which includes strong outings in the year’s Majors: T5 (Masters), T29 (PGA Championship), and T16 (US Open). He’s made 6/7 cuts at the Open Championship, including four straight, and has improved upon his final leaderboard positioning progressively in each of those years (T40, T39, T37, and up to T12 last year). He’s a great target for tough courses considering his prowess at avoiding costly bogeys. Overall, he ranks 35th in SG: BS (58th SG: OTT), 6th in Bogey Avoidance, 36th in Proximity, and 11th in SG: ATG. He’s not an overly long hitter. So if winds don’t come to the course’s defense, then he may become overshadowed by the big time bombers. But he’ll be finding plenty of fairways and is among the best scramblers on TOUR. Some guys priced around him carry slightly better odds to win than Simpson’s 80:1 chances but he is a strong option when in search for an affordable cash play and there is plenty of upside in his game under the right circumstances. He lands handsomely at 8th in my tournament model.

Low-Priced Targets

Erik Van Rooyen (DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.6k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Even in this tier of pricing there are so many damn good golfers to choose from. EVR stands out here after already showing he can compete in a Major-caliber field this season after landing a T8 at the PGA Championship and T43 at the US Open. In his Open Championship debut last year at Carnoustie, he also held his own with a T17 finish. At last week’s Scottish Open, were it not for a disastrous quadruple-bogey in his final round that led to a one-over score of 72, he very well could have pushed for a victory -- instead he ended with a T14 result while shooting rounds of 64, 64, and 67 over the previous three days. He doesn’t have enough rounds played to register for PGA stats but this 29-year-old South African golfer can flat out compete. I’d keep him on your radar, especially in tournaments.

Joaquin Niemann (DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.9k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

If you’ve been playing PGA DFS in recent weeks, then Niemann has perhaps been a mainstay in some of your lineups. He was actually my top highlighted player in the "High-Priced Targets" section last week. Obviously, there is now a massive salary drop off. But the kid is on a roll with seven consecutive made cuts and three top 10s in his last four starts. But now the stage gets drastically bigger and the level of competition surges just as much. You have to keep in mind, this fella is just 20 years old. But he has already competed in four Majors previously, however he only made the cut in one of those events (2018 PGA Championship, finished T71). This will be his Open Championship debut but he has all the tools to contend for not just a made cut, but a top 25 result… or maybe better? He ranks 24th in SG: BS (30th in SG: OTT), 29th in Bogey Avoidance, 6th in Proximity, and 42nd in SG: ATG. He’ll be one of my favorite GPP dark horses as he strolls in as a 200:1 long shot but rates out 11th in my overall model.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced

- Jon Rahm (DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.3k) | GPP Only | In Rahm’s last three worldwide starts he has finished T3 (US Open), T2 (Andalucia Masters), and, most recently, 1st (Irish Open). I’d say the form is going strong, wouldn’t you? But he is the ultimate wild card/headcase and he hasn’t had much luck in his three career Open Championship appearances, so play with caution.

- Justin Thomas (DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.7k) | GPP Only | Since JT’s return from his wrist injury, his tee to green game has been fine but his primary struggles have come with the putter, oddly enough. Normally, you’d expect a problematic wrist to have more of an affect on a golfer’s irons and driver, but that hasn’t been the case. Anyhow, he landed a T9 finish at the Scottish Open last week and if he snaps completely back into the form, particularly with the flat stick, he can very well push for a top five or even a win. I doubt many will take a risk on him, but he’s worth some GPP exposure for sure.

Mid-Priced

- Henrik Stenson (DK: $8.4k, FD: $10.1k) | Cash & GPP | Stenson enters in with incredible form on the heels of three top 10 worldwide results. His iron play has been immaculate and he ranks 1st in SG: Approach. He hoisted the Claret Jug in 2016 and, in total, has made the cut at The Open in 12/13 attempts. Strong winds would play into his favor considering he typically rocks an ultra-accurate 3-wood off the tee anyway.

- Rafa Cabrera Bello (DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.3k) | Cash & GPP | Uh oh, is it RCB chalk week? I’m certainly seeing plenty of buzz on him but it is definitely warranted. He has three straight top 10s on the EURO Tour heading into Royal Portrush and he is a premiere links player. As previously mentioned, the course is very different from when it was host to the 2012 Irish Open, but RCB landed a runner-up T2 finish for that same tournament. Very few guys in this field have competitive experience here, much less a quality result like that.

Low-Priced

- Michael Lorenzo-Vera (DK: $7k, FD: $8.3k) | GPP Only | This guy will be largely unknown to most American golf fans but he has been as steady as it gets on the EURO Tour this year with ten straight made cuts, including four top 10s. He also landed a T16 at the PGA Championship so he can apparently hold his own with the world’s best. Highly intriguing GPP value play.

- Jazz Janewattananond (DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.7k) | GPP Only | If you watched the PGA Championship, you probably remember this guy popping up near the top of the leaderboard and getting plenty of TV coverage at Bethpage Black en route to a T14 finish. That’s the last time we’ve seen him in competitive action but let’s see if lightning can strike twice when he takes on Royal Portrush. He’s simply a wild GPP dart throw who will almost definitely be under 5% owned. I still don’t know how to pronounce that last name though.

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Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll be around in chat all week so just tag me if you'd like a second opinion on a player or just have any other general PGA DFS questions!

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