By: Ryan Humphries | On Twitter & LineStar Chat @Ryan_Humphries

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour travels out to the Congaree Golf Club in Ridgeland, SC for the inaugural Palmetto Championship at Congaree. This event was created following the postponement of the RBC Canadian Open for the second consecutive year due to COVID-related restrictions. They have only had three months to take this tournament from an idea to reality, so it will certainly be interesting to see how everything shapes up this week. The field for this event is really weak with just 15 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers on site. The lack of star power is really no surprise with this being a brand new (and likely temporary) event along with the US Open just one week away. This is a full field event with 150+ players and the cut line remains the same; the top 65 golfers (including ties) after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend. With many unknowns surrounding this course, a considerable lack of PGA Tour talent available, and the US Open coming our way next week, this is probably a good time to go lighter on the bankroll. I’m still looking forward to this event and will definitely be investing in it. This tournament takes place in my home state and I’m highly intrigued by the course itself. It’s also never a bad idea to get familiar with some of these lesser-known (usually younger) golfers… many of whom may become PGA Tour mainstays in the future.

The Course Preview ⛳

Congaree GC was designed by Tom Fazio in 2017. This is a Par 71 set-up that extends around 7,655 yards in length making it the longest Par 71 on the PGA Tour. The length of this course may seem a bit foreboding at first glance, but Congaree GC should play firm and fast, even if rain attempts to soften the course. You’ll get a bit of an Australian or desert feel from this course as the wide tree-lined fairways are surrounded by many native sandy areas and very little rough. Congaree GC is about 60 miles west of The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island, SC where the PGA Championship was played three weeks ago. One thing these two events will have in common is the unique rule where golfers will be allowed to ground their clubs and take practice swings if they find themselves in one of those sandy areas. Water will also come into play on ten of the 18 holes. On approach shots, golfers will be targeting large Bermuda grass greens with notable undulation and runoff areas which can feed into more surrounding sandy native areas. In general, I believe any type of golfer can find success here. Bombers will have plenty of opportunities to swing away with their drivers and as long as the shorter hitters maintain sharp long iron play, they can find success as well. I believe we’ll see a fairly low cut line and quite a bit of scoring here, even with the lack of overall talent in the field.

Weather ⛅

Temperature & Precipitation Outlook: Golfers are going to feel the heat at times this week with temperatures getting into the high-80s and 90s towards the middle of the day which may be paired with high humidity as well. The highest chance of rain comes Sunday afternoon with a chance of isolated pop-up thunderstorms throughout the week.

Thursday: Sustained winds should remain <10 mph for pretty much the entire day with gusts rarely exceeding 15 mph.

Friday: Morning winds start out at about 7 mph sustained with 15 mph gusts. Around noon, wind speeds pick up to 12-13 mph sustained with 20 mph gusts.

Weekend: Gusts will be a factor at times, particularly on Saturday where they could hit about 25 mph in the morning. But, overall, sustained winds are forecasted at <10 mph.

Verdict: Maybe a slight edge can be given to the PM/AM wave as they’ll avoid the 20 mph gusts that are set to come into play on Friday afternoon, but I wouldn’t go overboard with that predictive wave advantage.

Palmetto Championship Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 35%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Birdie or Better % | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 15%

5. Sand Save % | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field for any given week.

CMR = Custom Model Rank; a player’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above *as well as* things like course history, recent form, and recent average fantasy scoring outputs.

Note: With no real course history and many golfers in the field without enough PGA rounds played to register for strokes gained data, I’m going to write most of these guys up “quick hit” style.

Brooks Koepka | DK: $11.1k, FD: $12.1k

Odds: 8/1 | CMR: #1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 2nd SG: BS | 7th P4 AVG | 2nd BoB% | 14th SG: ATG | 1st SS%

Koepka and South Carolina native, Dustin Johnson, are pretty clearly the two studs in this field and both check-in at 8/1 betting favorites. A case could be made that you could fade both in hopes that they’re treating this as nothing more than a glorified practice event ahead of next week’s US Open. A shaky start could just lead to either guy completely checking out. Assuming that isn’t the case, despite the lingering knee concerns, Koepka would be my preferred guy to target between the two. He’s coming off of that runner-up finish at the PGA Championship and his key stats set up beautifully for this course. DJ also has just one finish better than T48 over his last six starts and simply is not playing his best golf. He’ll likely be much lower-owned than Koepka, which would provide major leverage in GPPs, but I’ll be very tempted to put the fade stamp on him this week.

Tyrrell Hatton | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 14/1 | CMR: #2 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 1st SG: BS | 3rd P4 AVG | 9th BoB% | 86th SG: ATG | 4th SS%

Hatton has can be inconsistent around the greens at times, but his sand save efficiency should help counterbalance that with all of those sandy native areas surrounding these greens. On top of ranking out as the top overall ball-striker in the field, he also possesses some elite long irons and actually ranks 1st in proximity from 200+ yards. That will come in handy on some of these lengthy Par 4s -- three of which can stretch 510+ yards. There is a massive 645 yard Par 5 in play as well, the second longest hole on the PGA Tour.

Tommy Fleetwood | DK: $9.5k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 20/1 | CMR: #32 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 61st SG: BS | 51st P4 AVG | 29th BoB% | 2nd SG: ATG | 36th SS%

This could absolutely be a week where we see a player notch their first ever PGA Tour win. Fleetwood has been an excellent golfer for a while now but a PGA win has eluded him. He hasn’t been ultra consistent this season but he is a master around the greens and will be a prime leverage play among the higher-priced golfers this week. If he gets a good week’s worth of ball-striking together, I love the upside at <10% ownership.

Garrick Higgo | DK: $9k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: N/A | GPP Only

Key Stat Ranks: N/A

Higgo is the most expensive golfer who doesn’t have enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data. While he did make the cut at the PGA Championship and went away with a low-end T64 finish, you can typically find him over on the EURO Tour, where he has recently found a bevy of success. His last European Tour events have resulted in a win, a T8, another win, and a T4. He is pretty reliant on the putter (1st in SG: P on the EURO Tour), which strengthens his “GPP only” designation. But he can bomb it and averages right around 310 yards/drive (ranks 17th on EURO Tour). If he can manage to gain a couple of strokes against the field with his irons, he’ll bring some winning upside to the table.

Mid-Priced Targets

Alex Noren | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #22 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 62nd SG: BS | 98th P4 AVG | 71st BoB% | 12th SG: ATG | 24th SS%

At these salaries, the long-term key stats for Noren are not going to ‘wow’ you by any means. However, he is flashing some of the best form in the field as of late. Over his last five events, Noren is averaging a 27th place finish (ranks 2nd in the field) and the 3rd most fantasy points per start. The irons can be a bit erratic but his short game has been very on point.

Lucas Glover | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #5 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 12th SG: BS | 27th P4 AVG | 42nd BoB% | 17th SG: ATG | 49th SS%

Glover sets up very well in my overall key stats model (ranks 7th) and his form has been there as well with just one missed cut in his last ten starts. He’ll be a worthy target, especially in more balanced lineup builds, and a good bet to land a top 20 in this weaker field. Glover has some experience at Congaree GC as well, which never hurts.

Luke List | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #28 | GPP Only

Key Stat Ranks: 5th SG: BS | 80th P4 AVG | 18th BoB% | 48th SG: ATG | 69th SS%

Not many players have experience here but Luke List holds the course record at Congaree GC. He’s never a safe investment but List is going to be in play for GPPs any time a course allows golfers the option to bomb it down wide fairways as a pathway to success.

Vincent Whaley | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #8 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 48th SG: BS | 22nd P4 AVG | 32nd BoB% | 29th SG: ATG | 26th SS%

Whaley continues to put up insanely consistent results. He’s not out there making podium runs, but he has made nine consecutive cuts and has finished between T15 and T36 in eight straight starts. Most of those results also came against more talented fields than the one he’ll compete in this week. Whaley is likely going to be one of, perhaps *the*, highest owned golfer in this salary range, and honestly, his winning upside isn’t that great. It’s definitely worth lowering your GPP exposure towards him, but until the wheels fall off, this several month long stretch of consistency makes Whaley a great cash play.

Low-Priced Targets

Bronson Burgoon | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: #26 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 51st SG: BS | 25th P4 AVG | 44th BoB% | 24th SG: ATG | 61st SS%

Burgoon has made the weekend in eight of his last ten starts and has notched a pair of top 15s over his last three tournaments (AT&T Byron Nelson & The Valspar Champ). The long iron play is solid and he’s efficient around the greens. Burgoon often manages to avoid dropping shots as well and checks in at 15th in the field in bogey avoidance. He’ll have a good shot at a top 25 despite being the 44th and 45th most expensive option on DK & FD.

Hank Lebioda | DK: $6.9k, $8.2k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: #36 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 30th SG: BS | 67th P4 AVG | 76th BoB% | 71st SG: ATG | 28th SS%

Lebioda is riding a three event made cut streak which includes a T13 (Valspar) and T17 (Byron Nelson). He should set up pretty well at this course. Crisp long iron play anchors his game (33rd in Prox. 175-200 yards, 9th in Prox 200+ Yards) and he doesn’t drop a ton of shots (8th in Bogey Avoidance). A good bet to make the cut and push for a top 20 result.

John Pak | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.7k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: N/A | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: N/A

I’m looking forward to seeing this kid play. Pak will be making his pro debut under a sponsor’s exemption this week. He was the low amateur at the US Open last season (T51) and comes in with about as many collegiate golf accolades one could ever hope to attain. Pak won the Haskins, Hogan, and Nicklaus awards which are given to the nation’s top collegiate golfer. In 113 career rounds played in college, Pak shot par or better in 89 of them. He’s FSU’s all-time leader in scoring average, wins, and top 10s. The level of competition obviously takes a step up from college, but if he can notch a T51 at the US Open, surely he can present some upside at a weak field PGA event.

Hudson Swafford | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.5k

Odds: 300/1 | CMR: #98 | GPP Only

Key Stat Ranks: 95th SG: BS | 96th P4 AVG | 53rd BoB% | 109th SG: ATG | 58th SS%

Swafford is a relative disaster on the stat sheet but he has reportedly been practicing on this course in recent months. Just like I mentioned with Luke List, any week where course experience is virtually non-existent, a long shot like Swafford having some more rounds played here than most can give him at least some sort of boost. There are dozens of landmines down in this range with plenty of unknown or washed-up professional golfers. Swafford at least has some course knowledge going for him and has made back-to-back cuts heading into this week.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Lucas Glover

No real need to burn one of the big names this week, even if you still have ‘em available. As mentioned with him above in the “mid-range targets” section, Glover has been consistently making cuts and sets up very well as a course fit this week (and has some past experience at Congaree GC as well). In this weak field, I’m looking for a top 20 to be his floor with top five upside in the cards.

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options still have available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the complete 2020-21 PGA season.

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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