By: Ryan Humphries | On Twitter & LineStar Chat @Ryan_Humphries

Tournament & Field 🏆

The world’s very best make their way down to South Carolina for the 103rd PGA Championship which will be hosted by the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island. This is truly one of the most entertaining and challenging weeks of golf. Not only is the level of competition rivaled by only The PLAYERS Championship, but the selected course for each year’s PGA Championship is meant to provide one of, if not ‘THE’, toughest challenge for golfers each season. The field consists of 156 players -- 99 of the top 100 players in the Official World Golf Rankings, 35 Major champions, and 70 international players from 25 different countries. One thing to remember this week -- the cut rule will move to the top 70 and ties making the 36-hole cut. This event is taking place about 10-15 miles from where I live so if I needed any more reason, I’m extremely pumped for this one. Let’s get it this week guys and good luck!

The Course Preview ⛳

The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island, dubbed “the most difficult course in America,” is a Par 72 that will be set up to *theoretically* extend as long as 7,876 yards this week, depending on pin location. That scorecard yardage will officially make this the longest course ever played in a Major championship. This course is well-known for having the most oceanfront holes in the U.S. (ten) which clearly causes the wind to play a key factor. The PGA Championship was played here back in 2012 and, at times, 25+ mph winds led to comically high scores that ventured into the 90s for some guys -- the course played about 200 yards shorter that year. The forecast can change at any time but, currently, it’s looking like the winds won’t be quite as strong this go ‘round, so less carnage and more scoring should certainly be possible despite the added length.

The Ocean Course is a semi-links style course that features four Par 5s, four Par 3s, and ten Par 4s. Without any prevailing wind, each hole can play either shorter or longer than its listed length depending on which way the wind is shifting at the time. Prowess off the tee and capable long irons will be necessary as six of the Par 4s check in at 450+ yards (two at 500+ yards), two of the par 5s can play at 600+ yards, and essentially all four of the par 3s are 200+ yards. The fairways here are wider than average but will be surrounded by problematic rough, sand, coastal dunes, tall grassy native areas, and of course, water. If golfers miss the fairways, the preferred hazard to take follow up shots out of would seem to be the sandy areas where more control of the ball should be possible as opposed to the rough. Some of the “transition areas” or “waste bunkers” here will have different rules than traditional bunkers -- the rules for this week state that golfers will be permitted to ground their club and take practice swings in these parts of the course. On approach, golfers will be targeting Paspalum grass green complexes that range considerably in sizes but should be relatively receptive and run between 11-12 on the stimpmeter. The majority of the greens are elevated which could make winds particularly impactful, even when putting. Shortly mown grass on the edges of the greens could also make it quite easy for golf balls to roll off into the surrounding collection areas. The same hazards bordering the fairways will be in play around the greens as well.

Overall, I don’t think a player needs to be a certified bomber to succeed this week but long iron accuracy is a must. A combination of solid accuracy and solid length off the tee would be ideal. Creativity around the greens and the ability to get ‘up and down’ will be a necessary tool to have in the bag as well. With scoring being at a premium and pars often feeling more like birdies on some holes, golfers who avoid the big numbers will also take priority for me. One final note: don’t be shocked if the nature of this course favors European golfers who are more accustomed to playing windy venues on a more routine basis. With all of that said, let’s jump into a look at the weather, key stats to target, and some golfers to consider this week!

Weather ⛅

No rain in the forecast, plenty of sunshine with temps mostly in the 70s.

Thursday: Sustained winds will pretty much hover around 10-12 mph all day. Gusts will not be much stronger than that.

Friday: Perhaps a bit trickier in the second round. Sustained winds will be in the single digits early in the morning but pick up to 12-15 mph around noon and into the afternoon. Gusts could touch 20 mph, perhaps a bit higher, throughout the day.

Weekend: Pretty manageable conditions all weekend. Saturday looks to have the calmest winds all week. Sunday could see some 20 mph gusts in the early morning but sustained winds capping out at ~12 mph.

Verdict: Friday is the determining round here. If the gusty conditions are more prevalent in either the morning or afternoon, a wave advantage could develop. As of now, it seems like there will be no significant advantage but check the forecast later tonight or very early Thursday morning before making any final calls.

PGA Championship Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 20%

2. Strokes Gained: Approach | 20%

3. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 20%

4. Bogey Avoidance | 20%

5. Long Iron Accuracy - Proximity 175+ Yards | 20%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field for any given week.

CMR = Custom Model Rank; a player’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above *as well as* things like course history, recent form, and recent average fantasy scoring outputs.

Jordan Spieth | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 14/1 | CMR: #14 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 85th SG: OTT | 15th SG: App | 10th SG: ATG | 50th Bog. Avd. | 67th Prox. 175+ Yards

This venue isn’t what one may consider an ideal “course fit” for Jordan Spieth, but the man’s form is off the charts good right now. He has finished worse than T15 once in his last eight starts and that includes five top 5 results. Spieth isn’t really known for his prowess off the tee, but as long as the irons stay sharp and his short game continues to be efficient and consistent, another top 10 is in order.

Viktor Hovland | DK: $9.3k, FD: $11k

Odds: 22/1 | CMR: #5 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 4th SG: OTT | 17th SG: App | 62nd SG: ATG | 27th Bog. Avd. | 5th Prox. 175+ Yards

Hovland’s form got derailed briefly back in early March when he followed up a four event stretch of finishing T6 or better with a lackluster T49 at the API and a missed cut at The PLAYERS. Hovland bounced back with a strong T21 at The Masters and now enters into PGA Championship week off of back-to-back T3 finishes (Valspar + Wells Fargo Championships). At just 23-years-old, Hovland is already one of the premiere ball strikers in the world and he excels from long distances. He could use some work around the greens and with the putter, but his combination of length + accuracy off the tee coupled with elite iron play, particularly from long ranges, should more than make up for the less-than-elite short game. He has spent the vast majority of his collegiate and professional career competing stateside, but a European background out of Norway doesn’t hurt his chances at better managing any windy conditions that arise.

Mid-Priced Targets

Daniel Berger | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 28/1 | CMR: #6 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 15th SG: OTT | 13th SG: App | 83rd SG: ATG | 6th Bog. Avd. | 10th Prox. 175+ Yards

I’m loving where Berger’s ball striking is at following a T3 finish last week where he gained +9.38 strokes off the tee + approach. Berger is also an example of how salaries being released earlier for Majors can result in “odds boosted value.” Despite being the 17th (DK) and 16th (FD) most expensive golfer on the board, Berger’s 28/1 odds currently represent the 10th best odds to win in the field. It wasn’t all that long ago when Berger tamed another oceanside course when he won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February. Look for him to be a popular option out of this price range, but one that I’m fully on board with… especially in cash games.

Paul Casey | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #15 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 44th SG: OTT | 9th SG: App | 46th SG: ATG | 31st Bog. Avd. | 1st Prox. 175+ Yards

Casey is one of those golfers who is both fairly long (24th in the field in driving distance) and fairly accurate (32nd in driving accuracy) off the tee. Paired with his dominant long irons which rank out at the top of the field this week, you have to at least see the potential he brings to The Ocean Course at Kiawah. You never know when Casey’s putter is going to heat up or go completely dormant, but at the very least I feel confident in his ability to make the cut and push for a top 25 finish… potentially a top 10. For these salaries, I’ll take that combination of a strong floor with reasonable upside.

Low-Priced Targets

Keegan Bradley | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #5 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 26th SG: OTT | 7th SG: App | 22nd SG: ATG | 48th Bog. Avd. | 9th Prox. 175+ Yards

Oh boy, “Keegan Bradley Chalk Week”… this couldn’t possibly backfire, right? It’s hard to make a case AGAINST Bradley this week so we just have to assume his current form is not a hoax and roll with it. Bradley is riding a streak of eight consecutive made cuts and has finished outside the top 30 in just one of those events. Bradley’s weakness has never been his ball striking. He’s always been extremely sharp with his irons and more than serviceable with length and accuracy off the tee. However, he has crushed many’a DFS player hearts in years past (mine included) by routinely missing extremely make-able 4-to-6 foot putts. However, he has experienced some sort of renaissance with the flat stick and has now gained strokes putting in five of his last six starts. As an added bonus, he finished T3 here at Kiawah when this course hosted the 2012 PGA Championship. He’ll be one of the highest-owned golfers this week but it’s a chalk play I’ll hesitantly buy into.

Alex Noren | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.8k

Odds: 200/1 | CMR: #61 | GPP Only

Key Stat Ranks: 88th SG: OTT | 86th SG: App | 42nd SG: ATG | 71st Bog. Avd. | 76th Prox. 175+ Yards

Noren isn’t going to jump off the page when looking at the stat sheet, but for these salaries, he doesn’t need to. The Swedish golfer enters into the week riding a streak of three consecutive top 25 finishes and his European background only counts as a “plus” for this week where windy conditions should play a key factor at times. It was only maybe two or three seasons ago when Noren would have been around $1,500-$2,000 more expensive and carry odds to win more closely to about 66/1. After falling out of form for quite some time, perhaps we’re seeing a glimpse of Noren’s game piecing itself back together. I wouldn’t go here in cash builds, but the FPt/$ upside is considerable for where Noren is priced at this week. If he simply makes the cut, it’s like you’re playing with house money into the weekend.

Quick Hits | Other Golfers to Consider

Rory McIlroy | DK: $11.5k, FD: $12.1k

Odds: 11/1 | CMR: #28 | Cash & GPP

Given all the DFS value that Major pricing provides, it wouldn’t be too difficult to make room to pay up for Rory this week. He absolutely dominated here back in 2012 when he won by eight strokes. After MCs at The PLAYERS & The Masters, Rory’s form clicked back together at the right time as he comes into Kiawah off of a win in his last start at The Wells Fargo Championship.

Bryson DeChambeau | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.6k

Odds: 14/1 | CMR: #2 | GPP Preferred

My least favorite golfer to root for on Tour but golfers are looking at a historically long course that could, at times, play even longer on a hole-by-hole basis when the wind is factored in. Bryson hits it further than anyone in the field, so I have to at least say “keep him in mind for GPPs.”

Xander Schauffele | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 22/1 | CMR: #19 | Cash & GPP

I’m thinking Xander may fly slightly under the radar but he’s almost always a golfer who shows up in these tough Major championship fields.

Will Zalatoris | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.1k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Going back to the Willy Z well. It paid off huge at The Masters and this course fits his skill-set to a tee. I would rather go to Berger for cash in this price range though so I’ll personally use Zalatoris more as a GPP play.

Abraham Ancer | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #12 | Cash & GPP

The dude has been pretty much a top 25 lock going back to late-February and now enters in off of back-to-back top five finishes. Led the field in SG: App in his last start at The Wells Fargo Championship.

Corey Conners | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #9 | Cash & GPP

Conners has been a ball striking machine this season and has constantly churned out top 10s and top 25s. Hopefully, his lackluster T43 at the Wells Fargo will back people off of him. This is a ball strikers course and Conners is one of the best in the business in that department.

Sam Burns | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #29 | GPP Preferred

If salaries came out when they normally do, Burns would perhaps be about $1,000 more expensive as he followed up his win at the Valspar with a solo runner-up finish at the AT&T Byron Nelson last week. He’s definitely shown enough ball striking upside to compete at a PGA Championship caliber venue.

Jason Kokrak | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.7k

Odds: 125/1 | CMR: #25 | GPP Preferred

The form is right where it needs to be as Kokrak has finished T13 or better in four of his last five. Great player off the tee who can drive it around 310-320 yards consistently while maintaining solid accuracy.

Thomas Pieters | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.9k

Odds: 250/1 | CMR: #77 | GPP Preferred

Missed the cut on the number last week but had top 25s in his three previous PGA events. Plenty of upside and ownership leverage with Pieters out of this price range.

Charl Schwartzel | $6.8k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 125/1 | CMR: #36 | GPP Preferred

Charl’s last five results from oldest to most recent: T69 (nice), T26, T21, T14, and T3 (last week). So are we looking at either a win or runner-up finish from Schwartzel this week? Nah, probably not. But Schwartzel was 4th in SG: T2G last week behind only Burns, Zalatoris, and Berger and fired rounds of 65, 68, 66, and 68. If DFS pricing came out on Monday, I’d honestly guess Schwartzel would be closer in price to someone like Bubba Watson or Brian Harman.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Keegan Bradley

I’m running low on pure studs left available so I’m biting the bullet and hoping the Keegan train keeps on rolling. If you have some top players like Spieth, Rory, JT, Xander, etc. still available, by all means don’t tail me on this Bradley pick. But I’m hoping he can ride his current momentum into a top 10 finish. Oh man, this is gonna be interesting…

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options that you still have available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the 2020-21 season.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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