Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview

We have arrived at the second Major of the year! The 101st PGA Championship will be held at Bethpage State Park (Black Course) in Farmingdale, NY. We will see the world’s elite compete for the honor of hoisting The Wanamaker Trophy and take home the $1.98 million top prize. With the exception of Justin Thomas, who was forced to withdraw due to a wrist injury, every single golfer in the Top 100 of the OWGR will be teeing it up this week. Also, unlike The Masters, this Major will feature a full field of 156 players and follow the more traditional 36 hole cut rule where the top 70 (and ties) will move on and compete over the weekend. It should be noted that along with the older past champions, there are 20 PGA club professionals that received an invite for this tournament. Essentially, you cut the field by 30ish players simply by nixing those golfers straight away from consideration. The likelihood that any of them make the cut, much less factor into the weekend, is extremely low.

Bethpage Black plays as a Par 71 for the public but one of the Par 5s is adjusted to a Par 4 for the pros, which will result in the course playing as an extremely long Par 70 this week at 7,436 yards. This is one of the toughest courses in the country and it will test every facet of a player’s game. This will be the first time Bethpage Black is host to the PGA Championship, however it was home to two past US Opens (2002, 2009). More recently, The Northern Trust (formerly The Barclays) was also held here in 2012 and 2016. Course history won’t factor much into my decision making this week but it will be noteworthy if a golfer has shown success in any of those former events.

This course not only requires length off of the tee but also plenty of accuracy, both with the driver and on long approach shots, so ball striking will reign supreme. The Par 4s can be brutal, as seven of them will extend beyond 450 yards, including three over 500 yards. Three of the four Par 3s are at least 207 yards and will pose their own unique set of difficulty. The Poa/Bentgrass greens run fast but, for the most part, the surfaces are predominately flat. However, many of these greens will either be small in surface area, elevated ahead of the fairway, or a combination of both factors which will require further precision and creative adjustments on approaches and shots taken around the green. There are also a ton of menacingly positioned deep and difficult bunkers that are protecting the greens. Players will inevitably need to pull off some sand saves in order to avoid slipping down the leaderboard. I recommend giving the video below (Duration: 11m37s) a quick watch for a full flyover of each hole to get a better idea of the challenges golfers will face this week. Now let’s hop to a look at the weather, a list of key stats I’ll be focusing in on, and some top players to consider at each price point! Let’s go find us a Major winner!

Weather ⛅

Thursday will see sustained winds around 10 mph for much of the day with gusts hitting the mid-teens -- pretty manageable overall. Friday appears to set up with a bit more difficulty as sustained winds are forecasted between 10-15 mph with 20+ mph gusts throughout the day. Cooler temperatures in general will take a hint of distance off of golf shots which will be another disadvantage to the shorter hitters. As it stands now, both waves will face pretty similar conditions but you REALLY want to keep a close eye on the most up-to-date forecasts as we approach Thursday morning in case an advantage opens up. Last week’s Byron Nelson event was a pretty good example of the need to pay attention to weather as there was a noticeable advantage for the AM/PM wave but it wasn’t super evident in forecasts until the night before the tournament started. The forecast page will be linked to the image below. Click it for the most up-to-date outlook.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: BS)

 > Emphasis on Driving Distance | 35%/5%

2. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 25%

3. Long Iron Accuracy (Proximity 200+ yards) | 20%

4. Sand Save Percentage (SS%) | 10%

5. Good Drive Percentage (GD%) | 5%

High-Priced Targets

Brooks Koepka (DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.8k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

It’s a Major week so you almost have to auto-lock Koepka into your player pool considering he is a month removed from a runner-up Masters performance. He’s made 19 consecutive Major cuts including three top five PGA Championship finishes in the last four years and is, of course, heading into this week as the 2018 defending champ. When most of the superstar players opted to skip last week’s AT&T Byron Nelson and instead head out to New York for extra prep, Koepka was the lone top 10 ranked player who decided to compete simply because he “liked the course.” He notched a 20-under performance which was good for a solo 4th place finish and he shot all four rounds of 68 or better. You can look at this in one of two ways: one, he may be at a disadvantage from the other top golfers since he just arrived on-site this week; or two, he has so much confidence in his game right now (evident by playing a lower level event a week before a Major) that he doesn’t feel the need to stress preparation for Bethpage Black. I’ll side with the latter reasoning. Statistically, he ranks 23rd in SG: BS, 17th in P4 AVG, 40th in Proximity 200+ yards, 10th in SS%, and 23rd in GD%. Koepka is the sort of straight hitting bomber with a douse of creativity that this course demands. He should be in play across the board as one of the odds on favorites to win at 11:1 and he ranks 10th in my tournament model.

Rickie Fowler (DK: $9.3k, FD: $11.1k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

With Fowler’s current form (T9 at Masters, T4 at WFC) heading into Bethpage Black, he’ll have a lot of people tailing the hope that he is primed to win his first career Major. He carded a 7th and 24th place finish on this course when it was the host venue for the 2016 and 2012 Barclays, so some added course knowledge and success can only be a positive. Fowler doesn’t possess the extreme power that guys like Rory and Koepka have (few do) but he is still plenty long enough with drives routinely exceeding 300 yards (306.4 yards/drive this season). His irons have been incredible as well which has helped him to become one of the elite Par 4 scorers on TOUR. Overall, he ranks 41st in SG: BS, 2nd in P4 AVG, 4th in Proximity 200+ yards, 42nd in SS%, and 49th in GD%. With a pair of top 5 finishes in his last five years at the PGA Championship, perhaps we do actually see that breakthrough victory. I’ll have him in all formats, as he holds 20:1 odds to win and ranks 7th in the tournament model.

Mid-Priced Targets

Patrick Cantlay (DK: $8.2k, FD: $10.1k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

If you can excuse the missed cuts Cantlay had at The PLAYERS and Farmers Insurance Open, the season he has stitched together is incredible. He has made nine cuts on the season and has gone on to card seven top 10 finishes while the other two non-top 10’s were a T15 and T17. If you tuned into The Masters, you probably recall his electric weekend surge in which he actually led for a short while before finishing 9th. Not bad considering he barely made the 36-hole cut. He ranks 14th in SG: BS, 1st in P4 AVG, 41st in Proximity 200+ yards, 59th in SS%, and 54th in GD%. When he is honed in, he can shoot low on even the most difficult of courses. Cantlay drops just 1.83 bogeys/round, which is tied with Matt Kuchar for the 2nd lowest average on the PGA Tour and trails only Dustin Johnson. He seems a bit underpriced on both sites so he will likely carry quite a bit of ownership. Regardless, Cantlay seems like an ideal cash play but I could understand the leverage to be had by going underweight on him in GPPs. He has 40:1 odds and checks in at 8th in the tournament model.

Bubba Watson (DK: $8k, FD: $9.7k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

I can’t really pinpoint why, but Bubba is probably my least favorite golfer on TOUR, so it’s slightly painful to write him up as a recommended play but I can’t ignore the fact that he just suits this course really well. In his three starts at Bethpage Black, he has found some nice success with finishes of 13th (2016 Barclays), 10th (2012 Barclays), and 18th (2009 US Open). Watson has a tendency to excel on specific courses that he has played well at previously in his career. That statement can be said about plenty of golfers but Bubba follows that trend to the extreme. So in a week where course history really isn’t a main focus, when it comes to Bubba, it is. He ranks 16th in SG: BS, 60th in P4 AVG, 23rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 51st in SS%, and 57th in GD%. He has only missed one cut in ten starts this season to go with six top 25’s but I don’t think I could ever recommend Bubba as a cash play. He is ideal for GPPs though and brings plenty of upside to the table along with an equal amount of risk. He’ll be a 50:1 favorite and ranks quite high in the tournament model at 14th overall.

Low-Priced Targets

Jhonattan Vegas (DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.4k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

If you would have told me a year ago that I’d be recommending Jhonny Vegas in a Major as anything more than a scrub GPP longshot, I wouldn’t have believed you. But this week I think he could be viable in all formats. He’s been playing perhaps the best golf of his career and has constantly been returning value at his DFS prices. He is riding a six event cut streak where he has posted an average finish of 17th along the way. His length off the tee leads him to being a nice course fit so long as he doesn’t miss too many fairways. Overall, he ranks 27th in SG: BS, 47th in P4 AVG, 91st in Proximity 200+ yards, 72nd in SS%, and 47th in GD%. Not great metrics top to bottom but with him it’s all about the current form. In his lone appearance at Bethpage Black he carded a 22nd place finish at the 2016 Barclays. He has 125:1 odds and ranks 23rd in the tournament model.

Troy Merritt (DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.6k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

For a long shot GPP punt play, I think you could do much worse than Merritt, who is basically priced among the club pros and other irrelevant names. Merritt has shot in the 60s in six of his last eight rounds and had a chance at being the first round leader at last week’s Byron Nelson before a late double bogey knocked him back (I know this specifically because I lost out on a 90:1 FRL wager on him). He has made 8/10 cuts on the year with four top 25s. Merritt doesn’t drive it quite 300 yards but he’s not far off (294.6 yards/drive this season) and he hits a ton of fairways, right at 70%. In this field, he ranks 61st in SG: BS, 33rd in P4 AVG, 48th in Proximity 200+ yards, 34th in SS%, and 26th in GD%. All things considered, those are very solid numbers. He is a 300:1 Hail Mary but anything beyond simply making it into the weekend would be nice value and you can go crazy with the stud picks. He checks in at 46th in my tournament model.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced

- Tiger Woods (DK: $11.3k, FD: $11.7k) | GPP Preferred | I mean, if you play multiple lineups, you obviously can’t roll into this week without at least one Tiger line, right? This year he’s gotten some issues settled with the driver (3rd in GD%) that held him back last season and his iron play (1st in Proximity 200+ yards) is borderline “vintage level Tiger.” We’ll see if he can go back-to-back on Major wins. That would be wild if it happens but it’s much more than just some sort of speculative pipe dream prediction these days.

- Tommy Fleetwood (DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.8k) | Cash & GPP | It’s so tough to choose who I really love in the top tier but Fleet is entering this week with a T8 at the British Masters and 2nd at the Zurich Classic team event. He’s an incredible ball striker (7th in SG: BS) and is one of the purest long iron players (12th in Proximity 200+ yards). He is also well equipped to get up and down in these tough bunkers (1st in SS%).

Mid-Priced

- Adam Scott (DK: $8.1k, FD: $10.2k) | GPP Preferred | Scott will most certainly go overlooked this week but he posted top 20s in both appearances in stacked field events (The PLAYERS and The Masters). He also finished T4 at Bethpage Black in 2016.

- Gary Woodland (DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.9k) | Cash & GPP | Like Scott, Woodland also had a T4 finish on this course in 2016. He had to withdraw from his last event a couple weeks ago due to illness but should be good to go this week. Woodland started the season en fuego with seven top 10s in his first nine starts but has cooled off since. With his ball striking (11th in SG: BS) combined with his length (311.2 yards/drive) and long iron play (5th in Proximity 200+ yards) he is a perfect course fit.

Low-Priced

- Eddie Pepperell (DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.4k) | GPP Only | With recent finishes of a T3 at The PLAYERS, T16 at the RBC Heritage, and T2 at the British Masters last week, Pepperell is the ideal sort of high risk/high reward play. He is a solid ball striker but lacks a ton of distance and kind of relies on the putter to do a good portion of his scoring damage. Regardless, he’s the 33rd ranked player in the world and is too good to be so cheap.

- Scott Piercy (DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.1k) | Cash & GPP | Man, I really hope this isn’t a Piercy trap week as he enters the off of a T3 (RBC Heritage) and T2 (Byron Nelson). With DFS pricing for the PGA Championship being released over a week early, his recent success isn’t accurately portrayed in his salaries. He’s made 13/15 cuts this season, finished 22nd at Bethpage Black in 2016, and ranks 8th in P4 AVG.

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