By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

Welcome to one of the best weeks of golf! It’s time for the world’s best to compete at The PLAYERS Championship! Most avid golf fans will remember this tournament as the one which got shut down after one round last year as the COVID-19 pandemic became a much more threatening reality. It was around that time that the vast majority of sports across the world came to a halt for at least a few months. Now we get to crown a PLAYERS champion for the first time since 2019 and we should have an incredible week of golf ahead of us.

Widely regarded as golf’s unofficial “Fifth Major,“ this event annually boasts what can be argued as the strongest field of the season. Unlike typical Majors, there are no amateur invites and no “over the hill” veterans that receive a grandfathered invite for winning this event decades ago. Only PGA Tour cardholders and a few select international players and qualifiers get an invite extended their way here. Each of the world’s top 10 ranked golfers, and 48 of the top 50, will be teeing up this week. They’ll be competing for what is now the largest purse in the sport – $15 million with a record $2.7 million going to the winner. Also, exactly like a Major, there are 600 FedEx Cup points up for grabs. This is a full field featuring 154 golfers in total and the typical 36-hole cut rule applies (top 65 plus ties make the weekend). The PLAYERS Championship has been held at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL every year since 1982 and this course was designed specifically for this tournament. After the PGA realigned the schedule two years ago, this will be the third year since 2006 in which The PLAYERS has taken place in March as opposed to its former mid-May competition date.

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Sawgrass is a Par 72 set-up that checks in at a moderate length of 7,189 yards. This is a Pete Dye designed course, which means it is intended to bully golfers off of the tee by forcing them to pick the correct landing spots. Errant shots can be very punishing. TPC Sawgrass played as the 20th most difficult course two years ago (the last time it was played across four full rounds). In the four years prior, it ranked 29th, 5th, 19th, and 18th in terms of difficulty – so this is typically a tough but ‘gettable’ venue. The fairways are tight and tree-lined, the TifEagle bermudagrass greens (overseeded with Poa and bentgrass) are smaller than PGA Tour average and should run firm and fast, and there are 17 water hazards alongside 88 sand traps to contend with. Weather (wind in particular) can also become a primary course defense at times if it kicks up. TPC Sawgrass is also home to one of the most iconic holes in golf: the Par 3 No. 17 “Island Green” which gets some major crowds (obviously things will be different this year) and a ton of TV coverage. However, the closing Par 4 No. 18 is really the defining hole of TPC Sawgrass in many players’ and analysts’ minds. Water lines the entire 18th hole and it’s simply a great example of a Pete Dye design that forces golfers to be at the top of their game both mechanically and mentally. No. 17 and No. 18 are well thought of as the best two-hole finishing stretch on the entire PGA course circuit.

TPC Sawgrass is widely considered a second shot course – meaning it is more important what you do with your approach shots rather than what you do off the tee. Approach shots are always extraordinarily crucial, but perhaps even more so this week. Approaches will be coming from a lengthy distance pretty often, so accurate long iron players will have an advantage. Traditionally, nearly 50% of all birdies scored at TPC Sawgrass come on the four Par 5 holes, so everyone should be expected to perform well there – golfers who play the Par 4s at or just below par will be the ones who climb the leaderboard in a hurry. With the small greens, around the green play should be taken into consideration as well because, inevitably, every golfer is going to need to get ‘up and down’. Past winners tend to finish among the top in strokes gained around the green for the week. Guys who are mentally steadfast and can avoid posting big numbers will also need to be targeted, so golfers who rank well in “bogey avoidance” will take priority for me as well. One final note: salaries for this tournament were released much earlier than usual, so you may notice some guys who standout as misprices. Feel free to take advantage! Let’s go ahead and jump into a look at the weather, some key stats to target, and some golfers to consider for this week!

Weather ⛅

I’d say golfers lucked out this week. In general, weather conditions look really favorable. Sustained winds will rarely exceed 10 mph and there should be no significant gusts either. Temps will remain pleasant and hang mostly in the 60s. There is no threat of rain throughout the week as well.

Verdict: No wave advantage to be had so weather should not impact your DFS decision making this week. In case of forecast changes, you can still check the most recent weather outlook by clicking on the image below.

The PLAYERS Championship Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 35%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 15%

4. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage | 15%

5. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field for any given week.

CMR = Custom Model Rank; a player’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above *as well as* things like course history, recent form, and recent average fantasy scoring outputs.

Webb Simpson | DK: $9.5k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 22/1 | CMR: #7 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 47th SG: App | 2nd P4 AVG | 7th SG: ATG | 18th P5 BoB% | 2nd Bogey Avd.

If you could create a golfer who is custom built to succeed on Pete Dye courses, they’d probably come out looking something like Webb Simpson. He positions himself well on the fairways, typically possesses sharp irons, can get out of trouble around the greens, and the putter is strong and steady especially on bermudagrass. The optimism around him this week is also backed up by the fact that he won The PLAYERS in 2018 and bookended that victory with a pair of solid 16th place finishes in 2017 and 2019. Simpson’s irons may not be as sharp as of late (in relation to what we usually expect from him), but despite the lack of an elite approach game this season, he’s still playing some great all around golf. He provides a strong floor (9/9 cuts made this season) with plenty of upside (four top 10s). A couple of his top 10s from this season have come within his last three starts so ya have to feel good about him stepping it up once again at TPC Sawgrass.

Patrick Cantlay | DK: $9.2k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 20/1 | CMR: #4 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 33rd SG: App | 7th P4 AVG |5th SG: ATG | 7th P5 BoB% | 4th Bogey Avd.

These DFS salaries are a tad disrespectful for a guy like Cantlay who brings both consistency and winning upside to the table. His 20/1 odds to win are the 7th best in the field but his DFS prices put him as the 9th (FD) and 10th (DK) most expensive option on the board. It’s not major value, but it’s certainly noteworthy because, in this upper tier of salary ranges, prices generally parallel directly to Vegas odds. He’s just an example of how salaries being released early can result in mispriced golfers. Getting into his game, there isn’t much to say… the guy is just flat out good. You’ll need to go all the way back to mid-October to find a result from Cantlay that was outside of the top 20. His course history may not be extensive, but it’s not a red flag. He missed the cut here in 2019 but had a pair of top 25s in his other two starts here in 2017 & 2018. Just like the aforementioned Simpson, Cantlay has made 9/9 cuts this season with four top 10s. What I love about his game right now is his ability to bail himself out of difficult or tricky situations. Not only does he rank 5th in strokes gained around the greens, but he’s also the 2nd best player on Tour in terms of scrambling. I believe either Cantlay or Simpson would be an excellent anchor in cash builds, and it’s honestly not that difficult to fit them both into the same lineup.

Mid-Priced Targets

Tommy Fleetwood | DK: $7.9k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #40 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 81st SG: App | 97th P4 AVG | 10th SG: ATG | 70th P5 BoB% | 125th Bogey Avd.

Tommy often gets things rolling around this part of the season when the Florida swing is in full… well, swing. He enters in off of a very promising T10 at last week’s API and he returns to TPC Sawgrass where he has made all three of his cuts, including 5th and 7th place finishes in 2018 & 2019. His stats on the PGA Tour this season look pretty ugly and as a result he’s been knocked down in my custom model rankings, but if we focus more on short term form and course fit, Fleetwood is a worthy mid-range player to include in your player pools.

Will Zalatoris | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #29 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 5th SG: App | 67th P4 AVG | 48th SG: ATG | 44th P5 BoB% | 32nd Bogey Avd.

Willy Z makes another appearance in the Weekly Drive, and why not? He typically rewards people who roster him with a nice DFS result. In six starts on the 2021 calendar year, he is averaging a 21st place finish and 76.8 DKFP. FanDuel varies a bit, but on DraftKings PGA you’re generally looking for right around 10x value when you roster any specific golfer. Zalatoris clearly has a great chance at hitting 10x this week. This will be his PLAYERS debut, so he doesn’t provide any course history, but as long as the stage isn’t too big for him I would look for Zalatoris to have an excellent shot at a top 25 finish. In my “key stats only” model, he checks in as the 11th ranked golfer in the field for me.

Low-Priced Targets

Chris Kirk | DK: $7k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #9 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 38th SG: App | 13th P4 AVG | 18th SG: ATG | 120th P5 BoB% | 9th Bogey Avd.

I pinned Kirk as a GPP target last week but I believe it’s time we consider him in all formats this week. Following his T8 at the API, he has now carded a top 20 finish in four of his last five starts. He returns to TPC Sawgrass where he has made 7/9 cuts (one MC being a withdrawal) and three top 15 finishes. Kirk is really a prime example of taking advantage of the early released salaries. He is the 46th (FD) and 57th (DK) highest priced golfer, but his 100/1 odds represent the 35th best odds to win. Of course, at these prices you’re almost just looking for a guy to make the cut, let alone win the whole damn thing. After averaging 79.5 DKFP over his last five (which includes one missed cut), you can easily see how Kirk could provide a truckload of value. I definitely expect him to be popular, but he’s a really tough value guy to ignore.

Andrew Putnam | DK: $6.3k, FD: $8.4k

Odds: N/A | CMR: #39 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 91st SG: App | 66th P4 AVG | 30th SG: ATG | 78th P5 BoB% | 5th Bogey Avd.

After bringing in back-to-back top 5s over the last two weeks, how can you not at least throw Putnam into a GPP lineup or two and see if he stays hot? Now, his T5 from two weeks ago was in an alternate field event (Puerto Rico Open) when most of the big dogs were playing in the WGC-Workday Championship. But the fact that he parlayed that T5 with a T4 at the API last week says a lot because that was a fairly strong field. In highly difficult course conditions this past Sunday, Putnam, Matt Wallace, and eventual winner Bryson DeChambeau were the only golfers who accounted for an under par round on Sunday. Throughout that tournament, he was a little reliant on the putter (+6.11 SG: Putting, ranked 4th on the week) and a hot flat stick is never something you can count on week-to-week. But he did gain strokes on the field on approach (+3.19) and around the greens (+1.75) while losing just 0.84 strokes off of the tee. For some reason I am unable to find odds on Putnam anywhere but if I had to guess, he’ll be around a 150/1 long shot. While he is priced appropriately on FanDuel, being just $300 above the bare minimum salary on DraftKings makes him a standout GPP punt.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Rory McIlroy | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 16/1 | CMR: #25 | GPP Preferred

All of these elite guys are obviously in play, but I’ll point out Rory because I believe he may be lower owned than most of the guys around him. You can scroll through his tournament logs and see how often he posts just one poor round on the week which ultimately drops him down on the final leaderboard. He’s already churning out top 15s most weeks, so that says quite a bit that he can, in some cases, shoot way over par some rounds yet still post high-end finishes. He returns to TPC Sawgrass as the reigning champ (2019) and had four other top 12 finishes between 2013 and 2016. If he connects four complete rounds together, he could easily win here once again.

Viktor Hovland | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.9k

Odds: 25/1 | CMR: #21 | GPP Preferred

He had a terrible weekend at the API shooting +11 across the final 36 holes. But prior to that, he was just about the hottest golfer on Tour so if his ownership is going to be depressed this week, I’d be down to take advantage.

Hideki Matsuyama | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.5k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #15 | Cash & GPP

Many may recall, Hideki was the first round leader (-9) at last year’s PLAYERS before the tournament got shut down (along with the rest of the world). After some concerning play out of him over the last couple of months, he’s back to flashing the strong form as he enters off of back-to-back top 20 finishes. He’s had some strong success at TPC Sawgrass, making 5/6 cuts with five top 25s.

Jordan Spieth | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 25/1 | CMR: #34 | GPP Preferred

You have to put the notion into your head that Spieth may actually “be back”. He now has three top 5s in his last four starts, with the other start being a T15. The irons are looking really sharp and he always seems to pull off some crazy around the green shots when he does happen to miss on his approach. Aside from a 4th place finish back in 2014, he hasn't really performed well here historically. Given his penchant to choke on the big stages the last several years, ya might have to keep him away from cash lineups.

Joaquin Niemann | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #19 | Cash & GPP

Niemann has made all ten of his cuts this season. He’s less reliant than most other golfers on finishing position points due to how many birdies he can put up on the scorecard. This will be his PLAYERS debut, but I like his game to fit in well here.

Corey Conners | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #11 | Cash & GPP

Conners has been a top 20 machine this season. His ball striking is almost always going to be solid. It really just comes down to whether or not he can at least putt the ball decently well. After gaining nearly four strokes with the flat stick last week, and having good putting splits in many of his other starts this season, I think we can start to trust him a bit more. Made the cut and finished 41st here in 2019. We’ll see if he can build on that in 2021.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout | DK: $7.1k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #128 | GPP Preferred

Major misprice alert for Bezuidenhout on DraftKings. You can pretty much disregard his CMR ranking. He does most of his work on the EURO Tour where he led the entire Tour in strokes gained total int he 2020 season. He has an absolutely elite short game which will come in handy at TPC Sawgrass. Following a 7th place finish at the API, I think we can definitely keep this guy in mind for tournaments.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Patrick Cantlay

I got absolutely gutted by Francesco Molinari last week… and it’ll be a while before I forgive him for that performance. But quickly moving past that painful OAD selection, I’m going to go with a much more reliable golfer with Cantlay this week. The PLAYERS has the largest purse in all of golf so you definitely want to get someone who can push for a win here. Do not hesitate to use one of your remaining premiere golfers on this event.

Other OAD picks to consider: Honestly, anyone you would view as 'elite'. I probably wouldn’t pick any golfer that has worse than 40/1 odds to win unless you’re trying to take a super contrarian angle in hopes that it works out.

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options that you still have available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the 2020-21 season.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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