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Top PGA DraftKings & FanDuel Plays | The PLAYERS Championship ⛳️
Written by Ryan Humphries
Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!
The Player Field & Course Preview
Welcome to one of the best weeks of golf -- The PLAYERS Championship! Widely regarded as golf’s unofficial “Fifth Major," this event annually boasts arguably the strongest field of the season. There are no amateur invites and no “over the hill” veterans that receive a grandfathered invite for winning this event decades ago. Barring any withdrawals, every single one of the world’s top 50 golfers will be teeing up this week and they’ll be competing for what is now the largest purse in the sport -- $12.5 million with a record $2.25 million going to the winner. Also, similar to a Major, there are 600 FedEx Cup points up for grabs. This is a full field featuring 144 golfers and the typical 36-hole cut rule applies (top 70 plus ties make the weekend). The PLAYERS Championship has been held at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL every year since 1982 and this course was designed specifically for this event. With the new 2019 schedule realignment, this will be the first year in which The PLAYERS has taken place in March since 2006 after the PGA moved it up a couple months from it’s usual mid-May competition date.
Looking at the course, TPC Sawgrass is a Par 72 set-up that checks in at a moderate length of 7,189 yards. This is a Pete Dye designed course which means it is intended to bully golfers off of the tee by forcing them to pick the right spots and errant shots can be very punishing. The fairways are tight and tree-lined, the overseeded Bermuda greens are smaller than TOUR average, and there are 17 water hazards and 88 sand traps to contend with. TPC Sawgrass is also home to one of the most iconic holes in golf: the Par 3 No. 17 “Island Green” which gets some major crowds and a ton of TV coverage. However, the closing Par 4 No. 18 is really the defining hole in many players' and analysts' minds, as water lines the entire hole and is a great example of a Pete Dye design that forces golfers to be at the top of their game both mechanically and mentally.
TPC Sawgrass is widely considered a second shot course -- meaning it is more important what you do with your approach shots rather than what you do off the tee. Approach shots are always extraordinarily crucial, but perhaps even more so this week, and they’ll be coming from 175+ yards out pretty often, so accurate long iron players will have an advantage. Traditionally, nearly 50% of all birdies scored at TPC Sawgrass come on the four Par 5 holes, so everyone should be expected to perform well there -- golfers who play the Par 4’s at or just below par will be the ones who climb the leaderboard in a hurry. With the small greens, scrambling should be taken into consideration as well because, inevitably, every golfer is going to need to get up and down near the green and past winners tend to finish well in that category. Let’s go ahead and jump into a look at the weather, some key stats to consider, and my favorite picks for this week!
Weather ⛅
For anyone new to PGA DFS, we take a look at the weather to see if there is an advantage to be had for either group of golfers teeing up Thursday morning/Friday afternoon (AM/PM wave) or the guys starting their rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning (PM/AM wave). The top priority in PGA DFS should be getting 6/6 golfers in your lineups through the cut line -- so if there is an edge to be had for either wave, it is important to take advantage!
Over the past couple of weeks, the Florida weather hasn’t really been a major concern. That may be a different story this week, particularly on Thursday’s opening round. It appears that winds will sustain in the 10-12 mph range for the entire day with gusts regularly hitting 20+ mph. However, the winds are forecasted to be pretty consistent throughout the day and should affect both waves equally. Friday’s round looks to be moderately windy as well but not quite as gusty as Thursday. Overall, everyone will be contending with the higher winds on Thursday but you could perhaps give a slight edge to the AM/PM wave, as they’ll see a softer course early on in the morning on Thursday’s windy round. As always, keep an eye on the forecast for Ponte Vedra Beach, FL the closer we get to Thursday morning!
Click the image above to view the most recent forecast
Top Stats to Consider* 📊
1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 40%
2. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 25%
3. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 15%
4. Scrambling | 10%
5. Bogey Avoidance | 10%
*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentages I put on each category. Also, course history and current form are always the top two "stats" to consider in any given week.
High-Priced Targets
Rory McIlroy (DK: $10.8k | FD: $11.8k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
McIlroy arrives at TPC Sawgrass having finished 6th or better in his last five starts and could very easily have been priced as the top option on the board. You may notice under my “Key Stats” rankings that I mention course history and current form are truly the top stats for any given week. Well, Rory’s current form ranks 1st in the entire field and, while he did miss the cut here last year and is 5/9 on cuts made overall, he does have three top 10 finishes to his name at The PLAYERS. TPC Sawgrass is a course that you’ll rarely find someone with consistently strong history, so targeting guys coming in with great form with at least some success in years past is a smart approach. McIlroy is leading the entire PGA Tour in strokes gained: tee to green and certainly checks off several key stats for this week. He’s 25th in SG: App, 6th in P4 AVG, 11th in BoB%, 75th in Scrambling, and 17th in Bogey Avoidance. While TPC Sawgrass doesn’t favor any one type of golfer, Rory and his explosive driver that he routinely hits 320+ yards should help him gain an advantage at times so long as he keeps it in the fairways more often than not. I believe we’re getting McIlroy at a slight discount this week, especially on DraftKings where he could easily cost $600-$1,000 more. He is tied with Dustin Johnson with the best odds to win at 12:1 and ranks 4th in my player model.
Xander Schauffele (DK: $9k | FD: $11k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
After last year’s runner-up finish in his PLAYERS debut, Schauffele looks to make his return to TPC Sawgrass and continue his stellar season. He’s already notched off two wins this season and has yet to finish outside of the top 25 in any of his 2019 starts. The X-Man just boasts a really outstanding all-around game and it’s tough to find anything to complain about that he may be struggling with lately... because nothing stands out! He checks in at 15th in the field in SG: App, 18th in P4 AVG, 16th in BoB%, 15th in Scrambling, and 9th in Bogey Avoidance. Between his strong current form, success shown with his 2nd place PLAYERS finish last year, and ranking top 20 in every key metric I’m weighing heavily this week, it’s no surprise that he pops up as 1st overall in my player model. Schauffele also has a great opportunity to win at 25:1 odds and should qualify as a fantastic golfer to target in all DFS formats this week.
Mid-Priced Targets
Adam Scott (DK: $8.2k | FD: $10.7k)
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
Coming in fresh off of a missed cut (by one stroke) at The Honda Classic, I expect Scott to be one of the lower owned golfers in this loaded $8k/$10k (DK/FD) salary range, which makes him a perfect leverage play for tournaments. Scott actually has some of the best course history in the field, as he has gained more strokes than any player in this event over the last five years, has three consecutive top 12 finishes here, and has made 12 of his last 14 cuts at TPC Sawgrass. He’s a bit hit-or-miss in my key stats, as he ranks 22nd in SG: App, 110th in P4 AVG, 33rd in BoB%, 83rd in Scrambling, and 115th in Bogey Avoidance so course history is the primary draw with Scott this week. He’s not going anywhere near my cash lineups but he has some solid 40:1 odds to win and ranks a modest 37th in my player model.
Ian Poulter (DK: $7.6k | FD: $9.8k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Poulter makes a second consecutive “in-depth” appearance here in the Weekly Drive. Maybe he’s not the most exciting player to watch with his “fairways and greens” approach but there’s nothing wrong with consistency! Poulter is 9/9 made cuts across the PGA and EURO Tours this season and has finished outside the top 25 just once (33rd at The Sony Open). He has five consecutive made cuts at The PLAYERS including 11th and 2nd place finishes over the last two years. That 2nd place finish in 2017 was special because it gave him enough FedEx Cup points to keep his TOUR card (which was about to expire) so I'm sure he has a certain love for this place. He ranks 46th in SG: App, 47th in P4 AVG, 60th in BoB%, 35th in Scrambling, and 28th in Bogey Avoidance. Not eye popping stats but he’s been getting it done regardless. Poulter is also a very solid player in windy conditions which, as mentioned above, could play into the equation this week. Poulter’s 55:1 odds to win are very strong for this salary range and he should be considered across the board.
Low-Priced Targets
Charles Howell III (DK: $7.3k | FD: $9.6k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Chucky Three Sticks gets a major price drop this week, especially on DraftKings, and yet he is coming off of four straight top 20 finishes and came away with a 17th place finish at The PLAYERS last year. Over his entire career, Howell has had his fair share of struggles at TPC Sawgrass, making just 5/13 cuts, but his excellent form coming into this week should alleviate some concerns -- especially with how strong he has been playing around the greens and with his putter. He ranks 70th in SG: App, 2nd in P4 AVG, 28th in BoB%, 18th in Scrambling, and 2nd in Bogey Avoidance. He’s playing with a lot of confidence right now, so fire him up across the board. Howell has 70:1 odds to win and ranks 24th in my player model this week.
Byeong-Hun An (DK: $6.8k | FD: $8.7k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
Man, DraftKings and FanDuel really rolled out the disrespect on Bennie An with these salaries. An is a lousy putter, but as I always say, putting can change for any golfer in any given week… better or for worse. If An can just putt around average compared to the field, then he can easily land a top 20 finish. The reason being is that he is quite literally one of the best ball strikers in the world. He trails only Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, and Hideki Matsuyama in strokes gained: tee-to-green this season on the PGA Tour. He just really, really sucks at putting. BUT HEY, he’s coming in off of a 10th place finish at the API last week and has 7/7 made cuts on the PGA Tour this season. He’s only played at TPC Sawgrass twice but did come away with a 30th place finish last year. He ranks 37th in SG: App, 58th in P4 AVG, 31st in BoB%, 116th in Scrambling, and 122nd in Bogey Avoidance. An can be frustrating to watch on the greens as well as roster in DFS but he does bring strong cut equity and overall upside at really low salaries. He has 100:1 odds, ranks 34th in my player model, and should be worthy of consideration in all DFS formats.
Quick Hits | Others to Consider
High-Priced
- Justin Thomas (DK: $11.1k | FD: $12.1k) | GPP Preferred | The putter has been missing for him a bit lately but he’s almost always going to be near the top of the field in SG: App. Probably too expensive for cash but elite GPP option as usual.
- Brooks Koepka (DK: $10k | FD: $11.5k) | GPP Preferred | After an ugly missed cut last week, his ownership should nosedive. Even though this isn’t an official Major, Brooks tends to show up in events like this with an elite field and a lot on the line. He has improved upon his finish at The PLAYERS in four consecutive years: cut in 2015, 35th, 16th, and 11th last year.
- Sergio Garcia (DK: $9.1k | FD: $10.9k) | Cash & GPP | Best “course horse” fit in the field. Made the cut at TPC Sawgrass 14 straight trips with a win and two runner-ups. He has been playing an elite approach game as well (1st in SG: App in last 12 rounds).
Mid-Priced
- Francesco Molinari (DK: $8.6k | FD: $10.1k) | Cash & GPP | Good time to take advantage of the fact that PGA DFS prices came out before he won the API on Sunday. Missed the cut here last year but in his three PLAYERS appearances prior to that: 6th, 7th, and 6th. Playing with confidence and you get him at a nice discount.
- Matt Kuchar (DK: $8k | FD: $10k) | Cash & GPP | Kuch will give you a lot of cut equity at an affordable price. On this course you need guys that can be strong mentally when something goes wrong. Kuchar is one of the best at staying calm under pressure. I swear he is permanently smiling.
- Marc Leishman (DK: $7.6k | FD: $9.9k) | Cash & GPP | If wind plays a major factor, the Aussie is one of the best wind players around. Has cooled off a bit recently but has shown the capability several times this season to finish very high on the leaderboard and could pay off these modest salaries with ease.
Low-Priced
- Rafa Cabrera-Bello (DK: $7.4k | FD: $9.8k) | Cash & GPP | Sure to be one of the most popular plays this week. He’s just been too consistently good to be priced this low. Also, RCB has finished 17th and 4th at The PLAYERS in the last two years.
- Matt Wallace (DK: $6.7k | FD: $8.5k) | GPP Preferred | Had a chance to win last week and overall has been trending upwards this season. My only hesitation is this will be his PLAYERS debut.
- Sung Kang (DK: $6k | FD: $7.5k) | GPP Preferred | Kang could miss the cut just as easily as he could land a top 15 finish. At these salaries, it’s worth the risk in some spots for GPPs.
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That will do it for our PLAYERS Championship preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week!
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