Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!

Tournament & Field 🏆

Welcome to one of the best weeks of golf! It’s time for the world’s best to compete at The PLAYERS Championship! Widely regarded as golf’s unofficial “Fifth Major,“ this event annually boasts arguably the strongest field of the season. There are no amateur invites and no “over the hill” veterans that receive a grandfathered invite for winning this event decades ago. Each of the world’s top 10 ranked golfers, and 47 of the top 50, will be teeing up this week. They’ll be competing for what is now the largest purse in the sport – $15 million with a record $2.7 million going to the winner. Also, exactly like a Major, there are 600 FedEx Cup points up for grabs. This is a full field featuring 144 golfers in total and the typical 36-hole cut rule applies (top 65 plus ties make the weekend). The PLAYERS Championship has been held at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL every year since 1982 and this course was designed specifically for this tournament. After the PGA realigned the schedule last year, this will be the second year since 2006 in which The PLAYERS has taken place in March as opposed to its former mid-May competition date.

The Course Preview ⛳

Looking at the course, TPC Sawgrass is a Par 72 set-up that checks in at a moderate length of 7,189 yards. This is a Pete Dye designed course, which means it is intended to bully golfers off of the tee by forcing them to pick the correct landing spots. Errant shots will be very punishing. TPC Sawgrass played as the 20th most difficult course last season. In the four years prior, it ranked 29th, 5th, 19th, and 18th in terms of difficulty -- so this is a typically tough but ‘gettable’ venue. The fairways are tight and tree-lined, the over-seeded Bermuda greens run fast and are smaller than PGA Tour average, and there are 17 water hazards alongside 88 sand traps to contend with. Weather (wind in particular) can also become a primary course defense at times. TPC Sawgrass is also home to one of the most iconic holes in golf: the Par 3 No. 17 “Island Green” which gets some major crowds and a ton of TV coverage. However, the closing Par 4 No. 18 is really the defining hole in many players’ and analysts’ minds, as water lines the entire hole and is a great example of a Pete Dye design that forces golfers to be at the top of their game both mechanically and mentally. No. 17 and No. 18 are well thought of as the best two-hole finishing stretch on the entire PGA course circuit.

TPC Sawgrass is widely considered a second shot course – meaning it is more important what you do with your approach shots rather than what you do off the tee. Approach shots are always extraordinarily crucial, but perhaps even more so this week, and they’ll be coming from 175+ yards out pretty often, so accurate long iron players will have an advantage. Traditionally, nearly 50% of all birdies scored at TPC Sawgrass come on the four Par 5 holes, so everyone should be expected to perform well there – golfers who play the Par 4’s at or just below par will be the ones who climb the leaderboard in a hurry. With the small greens, scrambling should be taken into consideration as well because, inevitably, every golfer is going to need to get ‘up and down’ near the green. Past winners tend to finish among the top in strokes gained scrambling for the week. Guys who are mentally steadfast and can avoid posting big numbers will also need to be targeted, so golfers who rank well in “bogey avoidance” will take priority for me as well. One final note: salaries for this tournament were released much earlier than usual, so you may notice some guys who standout as misprices. Feel free to take advantage! Let’s go ahead and jump into a look at the weather, some key stats to consider, and some picks to consider for this week!

Weather ⛅

The Florida weather has been highly impactful over the last couple weeks but golfers may finally get a break from the difficult wind conditions this week. Sustained winds are not projected to rise above 10 mph for any of the four rounds, while gusts should max out at about 15 mph. Very manageable. Temperatures should sit comfortably in the 60s/70s and there is no rain forecasted at this time. So it seems we won’t need to base any decisions on the weather for this tournament but, as always, keep an eye out for any changes once we near closer to first tee on Thursday morning.

Click the image below to be taken to the most up-to-date forecast of Ponte Vedra Beach, FL.

The PLAYERS Championship Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 35%

2. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 25%

3. Birdie or Better % | 15%

4. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

5. Scrambling | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Patrick Cantlay | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11.4k

Vegas: 28/1 | Custom Model Rank: #6

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

We haven’t seen Cantlay compete since The Genesis Invitational four weeks ago, as he took some time off to recover from surgery. Fortunately, that surgery isn’t much cause for concern as it was simply a procedure he had done to fix a deviated septum. So you can ‘breathe easy’ if you’re looking to target the No. 6 ranked player in the world this week. Cantlay did disappoint those who took a shot on him at The PLAYERS last year after he ended up missing the cut. However, he did post back-to-back top 25s in his two years prior at TPC Sawgrass. Obviously, for these prices, we’d like a little more than just a top 25 and I believe Cantlay can deliver. Over his last four PGA starts in full-field events, Cantlay is averaging an 8th place finish. He stands out mightily on paper as well. In this field, Cantlay ranks 5th in SG: App, 3rd in P4 AVG, 3rd in BoB%, 16th in Bogey Avoidance, and 92nd in Scrambling. The scrambling is clearly the only concern here but the other facets of his game far outweigh that one area where he shows some downside. I’d be willing to roster Cantlay in cash and GPPs this week.

Bryson DeChambeau | DK: $9.1k, FD: $11.3k

Vegas: 22/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

If you’ve been reading these newsletter regularly, you’re probably not surprised to see this name pop up. DeChambeau’s game is running extremely hot right now with three consecutive top five finishes and he is simply dominating 99% of the field in strokes gained tee to green. His course history isn’t the most prestigious, as he has made just two starts here, but he has made the cut on each occasion with finishes of 20th and 37th. He ranks 53rd in SG: App, 9th in P4 AVG, 12th in BoB%, 7th in Bogey Avoidance, and 11th in Scrambling. DeChambeau’s irons have been improving lately, so I’m not too worried about that non-spectacular “SG: App” ranking. With salaries in mind, he’ll be perhaps my favorite overall play this week and only Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Justin Thomas carry better odds to win.

Mid-Priced Targets

Matt Kuchar | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.7k

Vegas: 66/1 | Custom Model Rank: #14

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

On a course which requires a strong mental game just as much as elite mechanical skill, Kuchar stands out as one of the most reliable guys to target. Kuch has made the cut at TPC Sawgrass 10 times in 12 attempts, highlighted by a win (2012) and a 3rd place finish (2016). I’m much more inclined to roll him out in cash as opposed to GPPs, simply because he hasn’t flashed much upside this season with just one top 10 on the year (T2 - Genesis Invitational). However, as the 25th most expensive guy on DraftKings (26th on FanDuel), that’s about where I expect him to finish this week. Kuchar ranks 60th in SG: App, 28th in P4 AVG, 34th in BoB%, 23rd in Bogey Avoidance, and 33rd in Scrambling. He’s simply very solid across the board -- perfect for cash builds.

Tyrrell Hatton | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9k

Vegas: 40/1 | Custom Model Rank: #12

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

I’m sure I’m not shocking anyone with this selection. Hatton is clearly one of the primary golfers who stands out as a major misprice as a result of the very early release on DFS salaries. Not only is Hatton coming off of a win at what turned out to be a brutally tough tournament last week, he has finished T18 or better in seven of his last eight worldwide starts which includes an additional win at the Turkish Airlines Open. You’re simply not going to find a guy with better odds to win in this price range. One catch here is that Hatton hasn’t fared all that well at TPC Sawgrass, making just one cut in three attempts with back-to-back MCs over the last two seasons. But I believe we just have to trust the current form here and slot him in some lineups despite the fact that he’ll be majorly chalky. Hatton ranks 1st in SG: App, 2nd in P4 AVG, 7th in BoB%, 4th in Bogey Avoidance, and 57th in Scrambling. He quite obviously crushes it in relation to my key stats. Hatton has also been one of the best long iron players in the field from 175+ yards out -- a skill which will come in handy this week. So… yeah, this is kind of an obvious pick but these prices are too enticing to ignore given all of his recent success.

Low-Priced Targets

Joel Dahmen | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.1k

Vegas: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #10

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Due to the high strength of the field this week, it is inevitable that quality golfers will be pushed toward the bottom of the salary hierarchy. Dahmen is a definite stand out down in this range and checks in as the 10th ranked player in my personal tournament model. It’s pretty easy to see why. He has made 11/13 cuts this season and is coming off of back-to-back T5 finishes (API & The Genesis). Dahmen has also posted four additional finishes of T14 or better on the season and notched a 12th place result in his PLAYERS debut last year. He looks quite solid on the stat sheet as well, as he ranks 20th in SG: App, 21st in P4 AVG, 92nd in BoB%, 49th in Bogey Avoidance, and 18th in Scrambling. The BoB% ranking may look a bit troublesome but it is worth noting that the difference between Dahmen’s 92nd ranked BoB%, which sits at 20.8%, and the 10th ranked BoB% is only about a 4% difference (Denny McCarthy -- 24.9%). Dahmen is a viable target for me this week in all formats.

Jimmy Walker | DK: $6k, FD: $7.7k

Vegas: 250/1 | Custom Model Rank: #93

Cash Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

There’s nothing wrong with a good ol’ fashioned punt play on weeks like these where you’re looking to target a stars & scrubs GPP build. Walker, who is the stone cold minimum on DraftKings, has flashed some form as of late after carding back-to-back top 25 finishes of the last two weeks. If you haven’t been paying much attention, the last two tournaments (Arnold Palmer Invitational & The Honda Classic) have been brutally tough. So it is nice to see Walker faring well on this Florida swing. He also has very solid course history, as he has made the cut 7 times in 10 tries at TPC Sawgrass including a 2nd place finish in 2018, 6th place finish in 2014. Walker ranks 23rd in SG: App but doesn’t land inside the top 100 in any of my other four key stats for the week. For that reason, he won’t go anywhere near my cash lineup, but he has given me plenty of reasons to feel optimistic about his chances at far out-performing these salaries.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Rory McIlroy (CMR #1), Jon Rahm (CMR #7), and Justin Thomas (CMR #5) are pretty much in their own tier this week. Roll them out wherever you feel comfortable. You wouldn’t hear any grievances from me.

Webb Simpson | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.7k

Vegas: 28/1 | CMR: #3 | Cash & GPP

Webb posted a very disappointing T61 in his last start down in Mexico but prior to that he finished top 10 in his other five starts this season. He won here in dominant fashion in 2018 and sandwiched that win with T16 finishes in 2019 & 2017. Ranks 7th or better in all five key stats this week. Totally fine going back to the Webb this week.

Hideki Matsuyama | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.9k

Vegas: 28/1 | CMR: #4 | Cash & GPP

Matsuyama is coming off of a poor showing at last week’s API (T56) but I’m expecting an immediate bounce back. He has made the cut here in 5/6 tries, including an 8th place finish last year. He’s made 10/11 cuts this season with four top 10s already. Ranks 10th or better in SG: App, P4 AVG, and BoB%.

Sergio Garcia | DK: $8k, FD: $9.9k

Vegas: 50/1 | CMR: #22 | Cash & GPP

Here’s your course horse for the week. Sergio has made 15/15 cuts at TPC Sawgrass with a win and three additional top five finishes. He has an average finishing position of 25th on this course and has made 8/8 cuts this season. If it isn’t obvious, “cut equity” is the name of the game with the Spaniard this week.

Collin Morikawa | DK: $7.9k, FD: $10k

Vegas: 50/1 | CMR: #25 | Cash & GPP

Speaking of “cut equity,” regular PGA DFS players are likely very familiar with this guy. Morikawa has now made 22 consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour and a lack of course history hasn’t been holding him back. He enters in hot off of a top 10 finish last week and he boasts some of the best iron play in the world right now (ranks 2nd in SG: App).

Talor Gooch | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7k

Vegas: 250/1 | CMR: #45 | GPP Only

Gooch’s streak of 12 consecutive cuts made is among the best on the PGA Tour, so FanDuel dropping him down to minimum price just screams “disrespect!” Gooch was near the top of the leaderboard after the opening round last week but nearly missed the cut after shooting a second round 80 (+8 over par). Despite near disaster, he still rallied to a very respectable T13 finish. I would be wary to trust him outside of GPPs this week, as he did miss the cut here in his PLAYERS debut last season, but he’d a solid low-owned target in this range (especially on FanDuel).

Max Homa | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.5k

Vegas: 200/1 | CMR: #41 | Cash & GPP

Here are Homa’s last five finishes on the PGA Tour: T24, T5, T14, T6, & T9. Even with the early salaries being released, how he is priced this low, particularly on DraftKings, is beyond me. Homa may not be a household name and he isn’t crushing the stat sheet in any particular category. But he’s doing a ton of things “good, not great” and it has been producing very strong results on the leaderboard.

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That will do it for our PLAYERS Championship preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week!

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