Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview

With one week left before golf’s third Major, the US Open, this week represents a final chance for golfers to tune-up their game as they prepare to tee it up at Pebble Beach in just nine days. But this week we will be focusing on the 2019 RBC Canadian Open which will be hosted at Hamilton Golf and Country Club located in Ancaster, Ontario. This event was most recently held at this course in 2012, when Scott Piercy won, and in 2006, which saw Jim Furyk land atop the leaderboard. The field is headlined by the top two players in the world: Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson. Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas round out the other top 10 players in attendance. In total, 27 of the world’s top 100 players will be teeing it up this week. Out of the 156-man field, the top 70 and ties will make the 36-hole cut. We’ve seen how brutally low the “6/6 rate” has been for smaller field invitational events the previous two weeks, so it’ll be interesting to see how things shake out for this week. With a Major right around the corner, be sure to keep an eye on last-minute withdrawals. Jason Dufner and KH Lee are a couple notable names that have already withdrawn from this event.

Hamilton G&CC plays as a Par 70 and is one of the shorter tracks on TOUR at just 6,966 yards. As a preface, course history will have almost no bearing on my decision making for this week, considering it’s been seven years since this course has fallen in play. However, it is still very important to identify the qualities a player must possess to succeed here. This is very much a layout that rewards excellent shot shaping. Golfers don’t need to be overly long but pinpointing accurate tee shots that will lead to more advantageous approaches with their irons will go a long way. Even though it may seem that some scoring upside is neutralized with only two Par 5 holes in play, Scott Piercy posted a winning score of 17-under in 2012 and Jim Furyk triumphed on the heels of a 14-under performance. A score hitting the 20-under threshold is far from unthinkable. Par 4 scoring and overall birdie or better percentage will firmly be on my radar. Basically, just give me ball strikers with scoring upside. I will tolerate a golfer who is prone to a few bogeys per round as long as they have the ability to roll in even more birdies. That seems obvious, but taking guys who are slow and steady par machines with the occasional birdie won’t get much of my attention. Let’s get a look at the weather, the stats I will be factoring into my tournament model, and some golfers to consider this week!

Weather ⛅

Not a lot of noise on the radar for this week. Both Thursday and Friday should see sustained winds in the single digits without any significant gusts. Temps will mostly be in the 60s and 70s with plenty of sunshine. Wednesday does show rain forecasted to move through the area, so the golfers teeing up Thursday morning should have the softest conditions to play on, which would aid in scoring. However, that bit of info likely doesn’t sway me on or off any particular players. But if you’re into “first round leader” bets, then I would look to stick to guys from the morning wave. As always, check the forecast as we get closer to Thursday in case anything changes. It will be linked to the image below (hint: on Wednesday you can go to the “superforecast” page and see a more detailed look at both Thursday and Friday).

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 25%

3. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) | 15%

5. Driving Accuracy | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Justin Thomas (DK: $10k, FD: $11.5k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

First off, as if it isn’t obvious, Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson are pretty much in a tier of their own right now. Fading one or both of those guys is a scary proposition. I won’t be looking to go in-depth on either of those guys because their recent play speaks for itself. But focusing on Justin Thomas, I believe we can expect him to garner quite a bit of resentment after his Friday implosion at the Memorial last week. In that second round he lost six strokes to the field on approach shots -- easily his worst round on approaches in years. I wouldn’t expect that to repeat itself but he clearly has a bit of rust left to shake off with that wrist injury. However, the fact that he is in the field this week, and will obviously be planning to play a third consecutive week at the US Open, indicates that there is no lingering pain. If JT’s form pops back into place, he can dominate this course just as easily as DJ or Brooks. He ranks 4th in SG: App, 1st in BoB%, 3rd in P4 AVG, 10th in SG: OTT, and 74th in Driving Accuracy. Look for him to be one of the more motivated stud golfers in the field who is in need of a great tune-up week. He is a 16:1 favorite and ranks out at 6th in my tournament model.

Scott Piercy (DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.5k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Paying these salaries for Scott Piercy sort of gives me a stomach ache but, with past biases aside, I can’t ignore his production this season. He’s made 15/17 cuts while accumulating six top 10’s and he trails only Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka in average DKFP over their last five starts. As I mentioned in the intro, course history is pretty much a non-factor for me this week, but Piercy winning the last time this course was in play in 2012 definitely isn’t a detractor. He hits nicely on all of the key metrics I am focusing on for this tournament: 30th in SG: App, 11th in BoB%, 6th in P4 AVG, 18th in SG: OTT, and 13th in Driving Accuracy. I expect Piercy to be pretty popular and I’d prefer him for cash games, as we have seen some major ‘chalk bombs’ over the last couple of weeks with Matt Kuchar and Paul Casey. A highly owned player missing the cut or playing poorly on the weekend isn’t as drastic of a hit if they’re ~60% owned in cash games. But you can gain a solid edge by lowering your exposure (in comparison to the field) in GPPs should someone like Piercy under-perform or completely miss the cut. He is a 28:1 favorite and rates out 5th in my player model.

Mid-Priced Targets

Bubba Watson (DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.4k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

We last saw Bubba at the PGA Championship where he put on one of the worst putting displays that I can recall in recent memory for a top 20 ranked player. Watson actually trailed only Brooks, DJ, and Woodland in strokes gained tee to green per round at the PGA Championship. However, he gave away nearly SEVEN strokes putting over the course of two rounds. As I tend to mention, strokes gained putting is the most volatile metric on any given week. It’s much easier for a golfer to consistently have a high level of play with their driver and/or irons. Bubba is capable of shaping shots off the tee better than nearly anyone in this field. Overall, he ranks 45th in SG: App, 35th in BoB%, 28th in P4 AVG, 2nd in SG: OTT, and 83rd in Driving Accuracy. If he simply putts close to average this week then he can easily make a run at a top 5 finish. I’d steer clear of him in cash games but he is no doubt an elite GPP selection. He has 40:1 odds and ranks 8th in the tournament model.

Nick Watney (DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.8k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Watney isn’t a sexy name to roster in DFS lineups but he makes plenty of sense this week. He is coming off of a T8 and T22 in his last two events and has been gaining plenty of strokes tee to green. There are no major red flags when looking at his season-long metrics, as he ranks 37th in SG: App, 21st in BoB%, 67th in P4 AVG, 47th in SG: OTT, and 81st in Driving Accuracy. Not that tournament history is a major factor but he has done well at the Canadian Open, finishing no worse than 34th in his last four trips up north. His ball striking is just in really strong form right now and I’d see no reason for any significant drop off to occur -- especially in a semi-weak field right before a Major. He is a 100:1 long shot but I think he’s a great bet for a top 25 finish. At his current DFS salaries, that should make him usable in all formats. He is 25th in my player model.

Low-Priced Targets

Peter Malnati (DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.2k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Malnati enters this week off of a T17 at the Memorial and has made eight of his last nine cuts. He has been one of the more reliable putters this year and does a great job at avoiding three-putts. His main weakness is his performance off the tee, but I believe he makes up enough ground elsewhere to be considered a play in all formats. He is 32nd in SG: App, 48th in BoB%, 29th in P4 AVG, 112th in SG: OTT, and 117th in Driving Accuracy. He’s not an overly long driver -- typically around 290 yards -- so I’m not entirely sure why his accuracy suffers. If I had to guess, it could partially be due to competing on longer courses where he sacrifices accuracy in attempt to push for ~300 yards off the tee with the big boys. There will be no such pressure to bomb it down the field this week. A consistent 270-280 yards in the fairway should do just fine for plenty of golfers at Hamilton G&CC. He has 150:1 odds but ranks out at 28th in my model.

Nate Lashley (DK: $6.7k, FD: $8k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Lashley isn’t out here tearing up the PGA Tour but he’s been a usable punt play, making 9/11 cuts on the season with five top 30 finishes to boot. It would make sense for him to have at least some moderate success at the Canadian Open given his yearlong track record. He ranks 13th in SG: App, 30th in BoB%, 9th in P4 AVG, 95th in SG: OTT, and 31st in Driving Accuracy. His short range irons are solid and should serve him well on his approaches on these shorter Par 4’s. As for the Par 3’s, which all range from 188 to 236 yards, Lashley’s long range irons are some of the best in the field. He’s also a pretty solid putter and rarely throws away holes with three-putts. If you need to punt someone this cheap, I would think he is usable in all formats. Despite being a 250:1 long shot, he lands at 22nd in my tournament model.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced

- Matt Kuchar (DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.3k) | Cash & GPP | It was tough to watch Kuchar struggle to make just two birdies through 36 holes last week but now that he has burned ~70% of the field, it’s the perfect time to go back to him. I could understand if you don’t want to target him for cash games, however. He ranks top 10 in every key stat except for SG: OTT (28th).

- Webb Simpson (DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.8k) | Cash & GPP | A pretty safe bet for a top 20 finish. Ranks top 12 in SG: App, P4 AVG, and Driving Accuracy. Starting cash builds with Simpson makes plenty of sense.

Mid-Priced

- Bud Cauley (DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.8k) | Cash & GPP | His salaries are getting up there but his current form pretty much necessitated a price bump. Nice birdie making ability and is excellent around the greens. Finished 4th here in 2012, which doesn’t hurt.

- Adam Hadwin (DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.3k) | GPP Preferred | The form isn’t phenomenal but he rates out at 24th in the key stat model and is the top ranked Canadian golfer (just ahead of Corey Conners). He’ll have the support of the crowd for sure, which is always an interesting unquantifiable dynamic in golf.

Low-Priced

- Danny Willett (DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.8k) | GPP Only | The former Masters champ is flashing a little form lately and has some strong “Vegas value” with 100:1 odds. Definitely would not trust him in cash builds but he’s an interesting tournament target that no one will be on.

- Sepp Straka (DK: $6.8k, FD: $8k) | GPP Only | I never play this guy even though he pops up in the stat model regularly. He ranks 15th overall this week, largely due to his 17th SG: App ranking and is 24th in BoB%. He’s a major risk to miss the cut, but over his last five made cuts, he finished T29 or better four times. Consider him a boom/bust GPP punt play that will have <5% ownership.

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Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll be around in chat all week so just tag me if you'd like a second opinion on a player or just have any other general PGA DFS questions!

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